On Graphically Checking Goodness-of-fit of Binary Logistic Regression Models

OBJECTIVES: This paper is concerned with checking goodness-of-fit of binary logistic regression models. For the practitioners of data analysis, the broad classes of procedures for checking goodness-of-fit available in the literature are described. The challenges of model checking in the context of binary logistic regression are reviewed. As a viable solution, a simple graphical procedure for checking goodness-of-fit is proposed. METHODS: The graphical procedure proposed relies on pieces of information available from any logistic analysis; the focus is on combining and presenting these in an informative way. RESULTS: The information gained using this approach is presented with three examples. In the discussion, the proposed method is put into context and compared with other graphical procedures for checking goodness-of-fit of binary logistic models available in the literature. CONCLUSION: A simple graphical method can significantly improve the understanding of any logistic regression analysis and help to prevent faulty conclusions.

Impact of unlinked deaths and coding changes on mortality trends in the Swiss National Cohort

BACKGROUND Results of epidemiological studies linking census with mortality records may be affected by unlinked deaths and changes in cause of death classification. We examined these issues in the Swiss National Cohort (SNC). METHODS The SNC is a longitudinal study of the entire Swiss population, based on the 1990 (6.8 million persons) and 2000 (7.3 million persons) censuses. Among 1,053,393 deaths recorded 1991-2007 5.4% could not be linked using stringent probabilistic linkage. We included the unlinked deaths using pragmatic linkages and compared mortality rates for selected causes with official mortality rates. We also examined the impact of the 1995 change in cause of death coding from version 8 (with some additional rules) to version 10 of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD), using Poisson regression models with restricted cubic splines. Finally, we compared results from Cox models including and excluding unlinked deaths of the association of education, marital status, and nationality with selected causes of death. RESULTS SNC mortality rates underestimated all cause mortality by 9.6% (range 2.4%-17.9%) in the 85+ population. Underestimation was less pronounced in years nearer the censuses and in the 75-84 age group. After including 99.7% of unlinked deaths, annual all cause SNC mortality rates were reflecting official rates (relative difference between -1.4% and +1.8%). In the 85+ population the rates for prostate and breast cancer dropped, by 16% and 21% respectively, between 1994 and 1995 coincident with the change in cause of death coding policy. For suicide in males almost no change was observed. Hazard ratios were only negligibly affected by including the unlinked deaths. A sudden decrease in breast (21% less, 95% confidence interval: 12%-28%) and prostate (16% less, 95% confidence interval: 7%-23%) cancer mortality rates in the 85+ population coincided with the 1995 change in cause of death coding policy. CONCLUSIONS Unlinked deaths bias analyses of absolute mortality rates downwards but have little effect on relative mortality. To describe time trends of cause-specific mortality in the SNC, accounting for the unlinked deaths and for the possible effect of change in death certificate coding was necessary.

Code-specific learning rules improve action selection by populations of spiking neurons

Population coding is widely regarded as a key mechanism for achieving reliable behavioral decisions. We previously introduced reinforcement learning for population-based decision making by spiking neurons. Here we generalize population reinforcement learning to spike-based plasticity rules that take account of the postsynaptic neural code. We consider spike/no-spike, spike count and spike latency codes. The multi-valued and continuous-valued features in the postsynaptic code allow for a generalization of binary decision making to multi-valued decision making and continuous-valued action selection. We show that code-specific learning rules speed up learning both for the discrete classification and the continuous regression tasks. The suggested learning rules also speed up with increasing population size as opposed to standard reinforcement learning rules. Continuous action selection is further shown to explain realistic learning speeds in the Morris water maze. Finally, we introduce the concept of action perturbation as opposed to the classical weight- or node-perturbation as an exploration mechanism underlying reinforcement learning. Exploration in the action space greatly increases the speed of learning as compared to exploration in the neuron or weight space.

A non-coding genomic duplication at the HMX1 locus is associated with crop ears in highland cattle.

Highland cattle with congenital crop ears have notches of variable size on the tips of both ears. In some cases, cartilage deformation can be seen and occasionally the external ears are shortened. We collected 40 cases and 80 controls across Switzerland. Pedigree data analysis confirmed a monogenic autosomal dominant mode of inheritance with variable expressivity. All affected animals could be traced back to a single common ancestor. A genome-wide association study was performed and the causative mutation was mapped to a 4 Mb interval on bovine chromosome 6. The H6 family homeobox 1 (HMX1) gene was selected as a positional and functional candidate gene. By whole genome re-sequencing of an affected Highland cattle, we detected 6 non-synonymous coding sequence variants and two variants in an ultra-conserved element at the HMX1 locus with respect to the reference genome. Of these 8 variants, only a non-coding 76 bp genomic duplication (g.106720058_106720133dup) located in the conserved region was perfectly associated with crop ears. The identified copy number variation probably results in HMX1 misregulation and possible gain-of-function. Our findings confirm the role of HMX1 during the development of the external ear. As it is sometimes difficult to phenotypically diagnose Highland cattle with slight ear notches, genetic testing can now be used to improve selection against this undesired trait.

Immunogenomic analysis of insect bite hypersensitivity in a model horse population.

Equine insect bite hypersensitivity (IBH) is a seasonal IgE-mediated dermatosis caused by bites of insects of the genus Culicoides. A familial predisposition for the disease has been shown but, except for the MHC, the genes involved have not been identified so far. An immunogenomic analysis of IBH was performed in a model population of Old Kladruby horses, all living in the same environment. Clinical signs of IBH were used as phenotypic manifestation of IBH. Furthermore, total serum IgE levels were determined in the sera of these horses and used as an independent phenotypic marker for the immunogenetic analysis. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in candidate immunity-related genes were used for association analyses. Genotypes composed of two to five genes encoding interferon gamma -IFNG, transforming growth factor beta 1 -TGFB1, Janus kinase 2 -JAK2, thymic stromal lymphopoietin -TSLP, and involucrin -IVL were associated with IBH, indicating a role of the genes in the pathogenesis of IBH. These findings were supported by analysis of gene expression in skin biopsies of 15 affected and 15 unaffected horses. Two markers associated with IBH, IFNG and TGFB1, showed differences in mRNA expression in skin biopsies from IBH-affected and non-affected horses (p<0.05). Expression of the gene coding for the CD14 receptor molecule -CD14 was different in skin biopsies at p<0.06. When total IgE levels were treated as binary traits, genotypes of IGHE, ELA-DRA, and IL10/b were associated with this trait. When treated as a continuous trait, total IgE levels were associated with genes IGHE, FCER1A, IL4, IL4R, IL10, IL1RA, and JAK2. This first report on non-MHC genes associated with IBH in horses is thus supported by differences in expression of genes known to play a role in allergy and immunity.

Interaction between effects of genes coding for dopamine and glutamate transmission on striatal and parahippocampal function

The genes for the dopamine transporter (DAT) and the D-Amino acid oxidase activator (DAOA or G72) have been independently implicated in the risk for schizophrenia and in bipolar disorder and/or their related intermediate phenotypes. DAT and G72 respectively modulate central dopamine and glutamate transmission, the two systems most robustly implicated in these disorders. Contemporary studies have demonstrated that elevated dopamine function is associated with glutamatergic dysfunction in psychotic disorders. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging we examined whether there was an interaction between the effects of genes that influence dopamine and glutamate transmission (DAT and G72) on regional brain activation during verbal fluency, which is known to be abnormal in psychosis, in 80 healthy volunteers. Significant interactions between the effects of G72 and DAT polymorphisms on activation were evident in the striatum, parahippocampal gyrus, and supramarginal/angular gyri bilaterally, the right insula, in the right pre-/postcentral and the left posterior cingulate/retrosplenial gyri (P < 0.05, FDR-corrected across the whole brain). This provides evidence that interactions between the dopamine and the glutamate system, thought to be altered in psychosis, have an impact in executive processing which can be modulated by common genetic variation.

The long non-coding RNA NEAT1 is increased in IUGR placentas, leading to potential new hypotheses of IUGR origin/development.

INTRODUCTION Intrauterine Growth Restriction (IUGR) is a multifactorial disease defined by an inability of the fetus to reach its growth potential. IUGR not only increases the risk of neonatal mortality/morbidity, but also the risk of metabolic syndrome during adulthood. Certain placental proteins have been shown to be implicated in IUGR development, such as proteins from the GH/IGF axis and angiogenesis/apoptosis processes. METHODS Twelve patients with term IUGR pregnancy (birth weight < 10th percentile) and 12 CTRLs were included. mRNA was extracted from the fetal part of the placenta and submitted to a subtraction method (Clontech PCR-Select cDNA Subtraction). RESULTS One candidate gene identified was the long non-coding RNA NEAT1 (nuclear paraspeckle assembly transcript 1). NEAT1 is the core component of a subnuclear structure called paraspeckle. This structure is responsible for the retention of hyperedited mRNAs in the nucleus. Overall, NEAT1 mRNA expression was 4.14 (±1.16)-fold increased in IUGR vs. CTRL placentas (P = 0.009). NEAT1 was exclusively localized in the nuclei of the villous trophoblasts and was expressed in more nuclei and with greater intensity in IUGR placentas than in CTRLs. PSPC1, one of the three main proteins of the paraspeckle, co-localized with NEAT1 in the villous trophoblasts. The expression of NEAT1_2 mRNA, the long isoform of NEAT1, was only modestly increased in IUGR vs. CTRL placentas. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION The increase in NEAT1 and its co-localization with PSPC1 suggests an increase in paraspeckles in IUGR villous trophoblasts. This could lead to an increased retention of important mRNAs in villous trophoblasts nuclei. Given that the villous trophoblasts are crucial for the barrier function of the placenta, this could in part explain placental dysfunction in idiopathic IUGR fetuses.

Decoding Delay Minimization in Inter-Session Network Coding

Intra-session network coding has been shown to offer significant gains in terms of achievable throughput and delay in settings where one source multicasts data to several clients. In this paper, we consider a more general scenario where multiple sources transmit data to sets of clients over a wireline overlay network. We propose a novel framework for efficient rate allocation in networks where intermediate network nodes have the opportunity to combine packets from different sources using randomized network coding. We formulate the problem as the minimization of the average decoding delay in the client population and solve it with a gradient-based stochastic algorithm. Our optimized inter-session network coding solution is evaluated in different network topologies and is compared with basic intra-session network coding solutions. Our results show the benefits of proper coding decisions and effective rate allocation for lowering the decoding delay when the network is used by concurrent multicast sessions.

Distributed Rate Allocation in Inter-Session Network Coding

In this work, we propose a distributed rate allocation algorithm that minimizes the average decoding delay for multimedia clients in inter-session network coding systems. We consider a scenario where the users are organized in a mesh network and each user requests the content of one of the available sources. We propose a novel distributed algorithm where network users determine the coding operations and the packet rates to be requested from the parent nodes, such that the decoding delay is minimized for all clients. A rate allocation problem is solved by every user, which seeks the rates that minimize the average decoding delay for its children and for itself. Since this optimization problem is a priori non-convex, we introduce the concept of equivalent packet flows, which permits to estimate the expected number of packets that every user needs to collect for decoding. We then decompose our original rate allocation problem into a set of convex subproblems, which are eventually combined to obtain an effective approximate solution to the delay minimization problem. The results demonstrate that the proposed scheme eliminates the bottlenecks and reduces the decoding delay experienced by users with limited bandwidth resources. We validate the performance of our distributed rate allocation algorithm in different video streaming scenarios using the NS-3 network simulator. We show that our system is able to take benefit of inter-session network coding for simultaneous delivery of video sessions in networks with path diversity.