Retrospective analysis of a nonforecasted rain-on-snow flood in the Alps – a matter of model limitations or unpredictable nature?

A rain-on-snow flood occurred in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland, on 10 October 2011, and caused significant damage. As the flood peak was unpredicted by the flood forecast system, questions were raised concerning the causes and the predictability of the event. Here, we aimed to reconstruct the anatomy of this rain-on-snow flood in the Lötschen Valley (160 km2) by analyzing meteorological data from the synoptic to the local scale and by reproducing the flood peak with the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model). This in order to gain process understanding and to evaluate the predictability. The atmospheric drivers of this rain-on-snow flood were (i) sustained snowfall followed by (ii) the passage of an atmospheric river bringing warm and moist air towards the Alps. As a result, intensive rainfall (average of 100 mm day-1) was accompanied by a temperature increase that shifted the 0° line from 1500 to 3200 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) in 24 h with a maximum increase of 9 K in 9 h. The south-facing slope of the valley received significantly more precipitation than the north-facing slope, leading to flooding only in tributaries along the south-facing slope. We hypothesized that the reason for this very local rainfall distribution was a cavity circulation combined with a seeder-feeder-cloud system enhancing local rainfall and snowmelt along the south-facing slope. By applying and considerably recalibrating the standard hydrological model setup, we proved that both latent and sensible heat fluxes were needed to reconstruct the snow cover dynamic, and that locally high-precipitation sums (160 mm in 12 h) were required to produce the estimated flood peak. However, to reproduce the rapid runoff responses during the event, we conceptually represent likely lateral flow dynamics within the snow cover causing the model to react "oversensitively" to meltwater. Driving the optimized model with COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling)-2 forecast data, we still failed to simulate the flood because COSMO-2 forecast data underestimated both the local precipitation peak and the temperature increase. Thus we conclude that this rain-on-snow flood was, in general, predictable, but requires a special hydrological model setup and extensive and locally precise meteorological input data. Although, this data quality may not be achieved with forecast data, an additional model with a specific rain-on-snow configuration can provide useful information when rain-on-snow events are likely to occur.

Swiss Alps Jungfrau Aletsch UNESCO World Heritage Site - The state of this World Heritage region as a starting point for regional monitoring

The UNESCO listing as World Heritage Site confirms the outstanding qualities of the high-mountain region around the Great Aletsch Glacier. The region of the World Heritage Site now faces the responsibility to make these qualities visible and to preserve them for future generations. Consequently the qualities of the site must not be regarded in isolation but in the context of the entire region with its dynamics and developments. Regional monitoring is the observation and evaluation of temporal changes in target variables. It is thus an obligation towards UNESCO, who demands regular reports about the state of the listed World Heritage assets. It also allows statements about sustainable regional development and can be the basis for early recognition of threats to the outstanding qualities. Monitoring programmes face three major challenges: first, great care must be taken in defining the target qualities to be monitored or the monitoring would remain vague. Secondly, the selection of ideal indicators to describe these qualities is impeded by inadequate data quality and availability, compromises are inevitable. Thirdly, there is always an element of insecurity in the interpretation of the results as to what influences and determines the changes in the target qualities. The first survey of the monitoring programme confirmed the exceptional qualities of the region and also highlighted problematic issues.

Archaeological Discoveries on Schnidejoch and at Other Ice Sites in the European Alps

Only a few sites in the Alps have produced archaeological finds from melting ice. To date, prehistoric finds from four sites dating from the Neolithic period, the Bronze Age, and the Iron Age have been recovered from small ice patches (Schnidejoch, Lötschenpass, Tisenjoch, and Gemsbichl/Rieserferner). Glaciers, on the other hand, have yielded historic finds and frozen human remains that are not more than a few hundred years old (three glacier mummies from the 16th to the 19th century and military finds from World Wars I and II). Between 2003 and 2010, numerous archaeological finds were recovered from a melting ice patch on the Schnidejoch in the Bernese Alps (Cantons of Berne and Valais, Switzerland). These finds date from the Neolithic period, the Early Bronze Age, the Iron Age, Roman times, and the Middle Ages, spanning a period of 6000 years. The Schnidejoch, at an altitude of 2756 m asl, is a pass in the Wildhorn region of the western Bernese Alps. It has yielded some of the earliest evidence of Neolithic human activity at high altitude in the Alps. The abundant assemblage of finds contains a number of unique artifacts, mainly from organic materials like leather, wood, bark, and fibers. The site clearly proves access to high-mountain areas as early as the 5th millennium BC, and the chronological distribution of the finds indicates that the Schnidejoch pass was used mainly during periods when glaciers were retreating.

Archaeology in Switzerland between lakes and mountains.

Switzerland has an extraordinarily rich archaeological heritage from the Neolithic and the Bronze Age, dating back nearly 7000 years. Since the mid-19th century, the first pile dwellings were discovered in the lakes of the Central Plateau. Since 2011 these sites are part of the UNESCO world heritage „Prehistoric pile-dwellings around the Alps“. Not only lakes, but also Swiss mountains preserve extraordinary archaeological remains: from an alpine pass in the Bernese Alps prehistoric objects are melting out from the ice. Perfect preservation conditions and modern archaeological methods allow exploring the development of early agrarian societies in this part of the world. We can reconstruct their settlements and follow their exchange with other communities. Archaeology under water and in alpine environments allows fascinating insights into the beginnings of our history.

L’archéologie entre glaciers et sommets. Dernières découvertes dans les Alpes Bernoises (Cantons de Berne et du Valais, Suisse)

Connus sous le nom populaire de palafittes, les habitats préhistoriques construits sur les rives des lacs subalpins du Néolithique à l’aube de l’âge du Fer (entre 5300 et 700 av. J.-C.) offrent des informations exceptionnelles sur l’évolution culturelle d’une importante région européenne, grâce à la préservation remarquable des matériaux organiques, en particulier du bois. À partir de la deuxième moitié du XXe siècle, le perfectionnement des techniques de fouille subaquatiques et de la dendrochronologie permettront la construction d’un schéma chronologique précis pour l’Europe nord-alpine. Les recherches contribueront à des observations d’ordre écologique à l’échelle locale et régionale et à l’identification des rythmes de développement des villages. Sous l’égide de l'UNESCO, les années 2010 verront la constitution d’un inventaire vaste et uniforme des sites préhistoriques des lacs circumalpins, classés Patrimoine culturel mondial en juin 2011. De nombreux objets préhistoriques, romains et médiévaux ont été découverts entre 2003 et 2010, au Schnidejoch, un col des Alpes bernoises occidentales à 2756 m d’altitude, à la frontière entre les cantons de Berne et du Valais. Les hautes températures de l'été 2003 ont provoqué la fonte d'un petit champ de glace et mis en lumière les vestiges. Les recherches ont été programmées à la suite d’une série d’informations fournies par des randonneurs. Les objets en matière organique (bois, écorce de bouleau, cuir, fibres végétales) revêtent une très grande importance car ils ont permis l’obtention de plus d’une cinquantaine de datations radiocarbone ; elles indiquent le passage du col entre la moitié du Ve millénaire av. J.-C. et l’année 1000 de notre ère. En outre, les séries de datations suggèrent l’alternance de périodes de praticabilité et d’inaccessibilité du col. Le Schnidejoch est actuellement le plus ancien témoignage de la traversée des Alpes, reliant l‘Oberland bernois par les vallées de la Simme et du Rhône.

Field-scale water transport in unsaturated crystalline rock

Safe disposal of toxic wastes in geologic formations requires minimal water and gas movement in the vicinity of storage areas, Ventilation of repository tunnels or caverns built in solid rock can desaturate the near field up to a distance of meters from the rock surface, even when the surrounding geological formation is saturated and under hydrostatic pressures. A tunnel segment at the Grimsel test site located in the Aare granite of the Bernese Alps (central Switzerland) has been subjected to a resaturation and, subsequently, to a controlled desaturation, Using thermocouple psychrometers (TP) and time domain reflectometry (TDR), the water potentials psi and water contents theta were measured within the unsaturated granodiorite matrix near the tunnel wall at depths between 0 and 160 cm. During the resaturation the water potentials in the first 30 cm from the rock surface changed within weeks from values of less than -1.5 MPa to near saturation. They returned to the negative initial values during desaturation, The dynamics of this saturation-desaturation regime could be monitored very sensitively using the thermocouple psychrometers, The TDR measurements indicated that water contents changed dose to the surface, but at deeper installation depths the observed changes were within the experimental noise. The field-measured data of the desaturation cycle were used to test the predictive capabilities of the hydraulic parameter functions that were derived from the water retention characteristics psi(theta) determined in the laboratory. A depth-invariant saturated hydraulic conductivity k(s) = 3.0 x 10(-11) m s(-1) was estimated from the psi(t) data at all measurement depths, using the one-dimensional, unsaturated water flow and transport model HYDRUS Vogel er al., 1996, For individual measurement depths, the estimated k(s) varied between 9.8 x 10(-12) and 6.1 x 10(-11) The fitted k(s) values fell within the range of previously estimated k(s) for this location and led to a satisfactory description of the data, even though the model did not include transport of water vapor.

The tectonometamorphic evolution of the Sesia–Dent Blanche nappes (internal Western Alps): review and synthesis

This study reviews and synthesizes the present knowledge on the Sesia–Dent Blanche nappes, the highest tectonic elements in the Western Alps (Switzerland and Italy), which comprise pieces of pre-Alpine basement and Mesozoic cover. All of the available data are integrated in a crustal-scale kinematic model with the aim to reconstruct the Alpine tectono-metamorphic evolution of the Sesia–Dent Blanche nappes. Although major uncertainties remain in the pre-Alpine geometry, the basement and cover sequences of the Sesia–Dent Blanche nappes are seen as part of a thinned continental crust derived from the Adriatic margin. The earliest stages of the Alpine evolution are interpreted as recording late Cretaceous subduction of the Adria-derived Sesia–Dent Blanche nappes below the South-Alpine domain. During this subduction, several sheets of crustal material were stacked and separated by shear zones that rework remnants of their Mesozoic cover. The recently described Roisan-Cignana Shear Zone of the Dent Blanche Tectonic System represents such a shear zone, indicating that the Sesia–Dent Blanche nappes represent a stack of several individual nappes. During the subsequent subduction of the Piemonte–Liguria Ocean large-scale folding of the nappe stack (including the Roisan-Cignana Shear Zone) took place under greenschist facies conditions, which indicates partial exhumation of the Dent Blanche Tectonic System. The entrance of the Briançonnais micro-continent within the subduction zone led to a drastic change in the deformation pattern of the Alpine belt, with rapid exhumation of the eclogite-facies ophiolite bearing units and thrust propagation towards the foreland. Slab breakoff probably was responsible for allowing partial melting in the mantle and Oligocene intrusions into the most internal parts of the Sesia–Dent Blanche nappes. Finally, indentation of the Adriatic plate into the orogenic wedge resulted in the formation of the Vanzone back-fold, which marks the end of the pervasive ductile deformation within the Sesia–Dent Blanche nappes during the earliest Miocene.

K-feldspar hygrochronology

The significance of the multi-isotopic record preserved in K-feldspars is assessed on samples from the Aar metagranite, Central Alps, Switzerland having very tight independent geological constraints. Stepwise leaching reveals that two diachronically grown K-feldspar generations coexist: Kfs-1 (≥ 35 Ma old, Ca-poor, Rb-Cl-rich, with low 87Sr/86Sr and high 206Pb/204Pb) and Kfs-2 (≤ 10 Ma old, antithetic isotopic signatures deriving from external fluids). Microtextures imaged by cathodoluminescence, backscattered electrons, and electron probe microanalysis are patchy and chemically heterogeneous, with pronounced enrichments in Ba in the retrogressed regions. This confirms the simultaneous presence of fluid-dominated retrogression and recrystallization and isotopic inheritance. The staircase-shaped 40Ar/39Ar age spectrum correlates with the Ca/K and Cl/K signatures. This reflects a mixture of heterochemical K-feldspar generations, and not an intracrystalline Ar gradient caused by diffusion. The shape of the age spectrum and the in vacuo release kinetics proceed from entirely different physical and geological phenomena. What K-feldspars can be effectively used for is to constrain the timing of the fluids that interacted with them by multi-isotopic analyses, rather than to model a “cooling history” from 39Ar release alone. The identification of multiple mineral generations by imaging combined with multi-isotopic analysis enables the accurate dating of the events of a multistage evolution after the initial crystallization of the rock in which the minerals occur.

Temperature and precipitation signal in two Alpine ice cores over the period 1961-2001

Water stable isotope ratios and net snow accumulation in ice cores are commonly interpreted as temperature or precipitation proxies. However, only in a few cases has a direct calibration with instrumental data been attempted. In this study we took advantage of the dense network of observations in the European Alpine region to rigorously test the relationship of the annual and seasonal resolved proxy data from two highly resolved ice cores with local temperature and precipitation. We focused on the time period 1961–2001 with the highest amount and quality of meteorological data and the minimal uncertainty in ice core dating (±1 year). The two ice cores were retrieved from the Fiescherhorn glacier (northern Alps, 3900 m a.s.l.), and Grenzgletscher (southern Alps, 4200 m a.s.l.). A parallel core from the Fiescherhorn glacier allowed assessing the reproducibility of the ice core proxy data. Due to the orographic barrier, the two flanks of the Alpine chain are affected by distinct patterns of precipitation. The different location of the two glaciers therefore offers a unique opportunity to test whether such a specific setting is reflected in the proxy data. On a seasonal scale a high fraction of δ18O variability was explained by the seasonal cycle of temperature (~60% for the ice cores, ~70% for the nearby stations of the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation – GNIP). When the seasonality is removed, the correlations decrease for all sites, indicating that factors other than temperature such as changing moisture sources and/or precipitation regimes affect the isotopic signal on this timescale. Post-depositional phenomena may additionally modify the ice core data. On an annual scale, the δ18O/temperature relationship was significant at the Fiescherhorn, whereas for Grenzgletscher this was the case only when weighting the temperature with precipitation. In both cases the fraction of interannual temperature variability explained was ~20%, comparable to the values obtained from the GNIP stations data. Consistently with previous studies, we found an altitude effect for the δ18O of −0.17‰/100 m for an extended elevation range combining data of the two ice core sites and four GNIP stations. Significant correlations between net accumulation and precipitation were observed for Grenzgletscher during the entire period of investigation, whereas for Fiescherhorn this was the case only for the less recent period (1961–1977). Local phenomena, probably related to wind, seem to partly disturb the Fiescherhorn accumulation record. Spatial correlation analysis shows the two glaciers to be influenced by different precipitation regimes, with the Grenzgletscher reflecting the characteristic precipitation regime south of the Alps and the Fiescherhorn accumulation showing a pattern more closely linked to northern Alpine stations.

Interpretation of fluid inclusions in quartz deformed by weak ductile shearing: reconstruction of differential stress magnitudes and pre-deformation fluid properties

A well developed theoretical framework is available in which paleofluid properties, such as chemical composition and density, can be reconstructed from fluid inclusions in minerals that have undergone no ductile deformation. The present study extends this framework to encompass fluid inclusions hosted by quartz that has undergone weak ductile deformation following fluid entrapment. Recent experiments have shown that such deformation causes inclusions to become dismembered into clusters of irregularly shaped relict inclusions surrounded by planar arrays of tiny, new-formed (neonate) inclusions. Comparison of the experimental samples with a naturally sheared quartz vein from Grimsel Pass, Aar Massif, Central Alps, Switzerland, reveals striking similarities. This strong concordance justifies applying the experimentally derived rules of fluid inclusion behaviour to nature. Thus, planar arrays of dismembered inclusions defining cleavage planes in quartz may be taken as diagnostic of small amounts of intracrystalline strain. Deformed inclusions preserve their pre-deformation concentration ratios of gases to electrolytes, but their H2O contents typically have changed. Morphologically intact inclusions, in contrast, preserve the pre-deformation composition and density of their originally trapped fluid. The orientation of the maximum principal compressive stress (σ1σ1) at the time of shear deformation can be derived from the pole to the cleavage plane within which the dismembered inclusions are aligned. Finally, the density of neonate inclusions is commensurate with the pressure value of σ1σ1 at the temperature and time of deformation. This last rule offers a means to estimate magnitudes of shear stresses from fluid inclusion studies. Application of this new paleopiezometer approach to the Grimsel vein yields a differential stress (σ1–σ3σ1–σ3) of ∼300 MPa∼300 MPa at View the MathML source390±30°C during late Miocene NNW–SSE orogenic shortening and regional uplift of the Aar Massif. This differential stress resulted in strain-hardening of the quartz at very low total strain (<5%<5%) while nearby shear zones were accommodating significant displacements. Further implementation of these experimentally derived rules should provide new insight into processes of fluid–rock interaction in the ductile regime within the Earth's crust.