Past and future evolution of Abies alba forests in Europe - comparison of a dynamic vegetation model with palaeo data and observations

Information on how species distributions and ecosystem services are impacted by anthropogenic climate change is important for adaptation planning. Palaeo data suggest that Abies alba formed forests under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in Europe and might be a native substitute for widespread drought-sensitive temperate and boreal tree species such as beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) under future global warming conditions. Here, we combine pollen and macrofossil data, modern observations, and results from transient simulations with the LPX-Bern dynamic global vegetation model to assess past and future distributions of A. alba in Europe. LPX-Bern is forced with climate anomalies from a run over the past 21 000 years with the Community Earth System Model, modern climatology, and with 21st-century multimodel ensemble results for the high-emission RCP8.5 and the stringent mitigation RCP2.6 pathway. The simulated distribution for present climate encompasses the modern range of A. alba, with the model exceeding the present distribution in north-western and southern Europe. Mid-Holocene pollen data and model results agree for southern Europe, suggesting that at present, human impacts suppress the distribution in southern Europe. Pollen and model results both show range expansion starting during the Bølling–Allerød warm period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold, and resuming during the Holocene. The distribution of A. alba expands to the north-east in all future scenarios, whereas the potential (currently unrealized) range would be substantially reduced in southern Europe under RCP8.5. A. alba maintains its current range in central Europe despite competition by other thermophilous tree species. Our combined palaeoecological and model evidence suggest that A. alba may ensure important ecosystem services including stand and slope stability, infrastructure protection, and carbon sequestration under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in central Europe.

Abies – Circum-Mediterranean firs in Europe: distribution, habitat, usage and threats

Most European firs occur predominantly in small to medium-sized populations in the Mediterranean region, sometimes with fragmented and limited distributions, except for silver fir (Abies alba). They all are genetically closely related and can easily hybridise, perhaps as a consequence of late speciation during the late Quaternary. Circum-Mediterranean firs occur principally in mountain areas with medium to high precipitations rates which are mostly concentrated during the winter period. The species are able to tolerate long droughts in summer and tend to form pure stands when in optimal habitats. In the past firs have been extensively logged for construction and fire wood and their stands were replaced by other more disturbance adapted species or converted into rural areas. Nowadays with the exception of silver fir and Caucasian fir (Abies nordmanniana), circum-Mediterranean firs do not have a wide commercial interest. In Turkey they are still exploited for timber wood, while other firs have an ornamental use in gardening. Great importance is given to their preservation, especially to those populations which have very limited areas and specimens, with the creation of protected reserves and conservation programmes. Wild fires, livestock grazing and genetic drift represent actually their main threats.

Picea abies in Europe: distribution, habitat, usage and threats

Among the coniferous species, Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) is one of the most important trees in Europe both for economic and ecological aspects, with a long tradition of cultivation. It can be a big tree, reaching 50-60 m in height with a straight and regular trunk, particularly used for timber constructions, pulpwood for paper and furniture. This widespread species dominates the Boreal forests in Northern Europe and the subalpine areas of the Alps and Carpathian Mountains. Thanks to its high performances in different site conditions, it can also be found outside its natural distribution on lower elevations in more temperate forests. Norway spruce has been massively planted up to its niche limits, where it is particularly susceptible to heat and drought, due to its shallow root system. For this reason it is expected to be severely affected under global warming conditions. Disturbed and weakened plants can be easily attacked by rot fungi such as Heterobasidion annosum and Armillaria, or by the bark beetles Ips typographus, one of the most destructive spruce forest pests.

Contrasting growth and water use efficiency after thinning in mixed Abies pinsapo–Pinus pinaster–Pinus sylvestris forests

Foresters frequently lack sufficient information about thinning intensity effects to optimize semi-natural forest management and their effects and interaction with climate are still poorly understood. In an Abies pinsapo–Pinus pinaster–Pinus sylvestris forest with three thinning intensities, a dendrochronologial approach was used to evaluate the short-term responses of basal area increment (BAI), carbon isotope (δ13C) and water use efficiency (iWUE) to thinning intensity and climate. Thinning generally increased BAI in all species, except for the heavy thinning in P. sylvestris. Across all the plots, thinning increased 13C-derived water-use efficiency on average by 14.49% for A. pinsapo, 9.78% for P. sylvestris and 6.68% for P. pinaster, but through different ecophysiological mechanisms. Our findings provide a robust mean of predicting water use efficiency responses from three coniferous species exposed to different thinning strategies which have been modulated by climatic conditions over time.