Influence of reported study design characteristics on intervention effect estimates from randomized, controlled trials

Published evidence suggests that aspects of trial design lead to biased intervention effect estimates, but findings from different studies are inconsistent. This study combined data from 7 meta-epidemiologic studies and removed overlaps to derive a final data set of 234 unique meta-analyses containing 1973 trials. Outcome measures were classified as "mortality," "other objective," "or subjective," and Bayesian hierarchical models were used to estimate associations of trial characteristics with average bias and between-trial heterogeneity. Intervention effect estimates seemed to be exaggerated in trials with inadequate or unclear (vs. adequate) random-sequence generation (ratio of odds ratios, 0.89 [95% credible interval {CrI}, 0.82 to 0.96]) and with inadequate or unclear (vs. adequate) allocation concealment (ratio of odds ratios, 0.93 [CrI, 0.87 to 0.99]). Lack of or unclear double-blinding (vs. double-blinding) was associated with an average of 13% exaggeration of intervention effects (ratio of odds ratios, 0.87 [CrI, 0.79 to 0.96]), and between-trial heterogeneity was increased for such studies (SD increase in heterogeneity, 0.14 [CrI, 0.02 to 0.30]). For each characteristic, average bias and increases in between-trial heterogeneity were driven primarily by trials with subjective outcomes, with little evidence of bias in trials with objective and mortality outcomes. This study is limited by incomplete trial reporting, and findings may be confounded by other study design characteristics. Bias associated with study design characteristics may lead to exaggeration of intervention effect estimates and increases in between-trial heterogeneity in trials reporting subjectively assessed outcomes.

Influence of the sunspot cycle on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation from long upper-air data sets

Here we present a study of the 11 yr sunspot cycle's imprint on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, using three recently developed gridded upper-air data sets that extend back to the early twentieth century. We find a robust response of the tropospheric late-wintertime circulation to the sunspot cycle, independent from the data set. This response is particularly significant over Europe, although results show that it is not directly related to a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) modulation; instead, it reveals a significant connection to the more meridional Eurasian pattern (EU). The magnitude of mean seasonal temperature changes over the European land areas locally exceeds 1 K in the lower troposphere over a sunspot cycle. We also analyse surface data to address the question whether the solar signal over Europe is temporally stable for a longer 250 yr period. The results increase our confidence in the existence of an influence of the 11 yr cycle on the European climate, but the signal is much weaker in the first half of the period compared to the second half. The last solar minimum (2005 to 2010), which was not included in our analysis, shows anomalies that are consistent with our statistical results for earlier solar minima.

A tutorial on data-driven methods for statistically assessing ERP topographies

Dynamic changes in ERP topographies can be conveniently analyzed by means of microstates, the so-called "atoms of thoughts", that represent brief periods of quasi-stable synchronized network activation. Comparing temporal microstate features such as on- and offset or duration between groups and conditions therefore allows a precise assessment of the timing of cognitive processes. So far, this has been achieved by assigning the individual time-varying ERP maps to spatially defined microstate templates obtained from clustering the grand mean data into predetermined numbers of topographies (microstate prototypes). Features obtained from these individual assignments were then statistically compared. This has the problem that the individual noise dilutes the match between individual topographies and templates leading to lower statistical power. We therefore propose a randomization-based procedure that works without assigning grand-mean microstate prototypes to individual data. In addition, we propose a new criterion to select the optimal number of microstate prototypes based on cross-validation across subjects. After a formal introduction, the method is applied to a sample data set of an N400 experiment and to simulated data with varying signal-to-noise ratios, and the results are compared to existing methods. In a first comparison with previously employed statistical procedures, the new method showed an increased robustness to noise, and a higher sensitivity for more subtle effects of microstate timing. We conclude that the proposed method is well-suited for the assessment of timing differences in cognitive processes. The increased statistical power allows identifying more subtle effects, which is particularly important in small and scarce patient populations.

A very rare cancer in Down syndrome: medulloblastoma. Epidemiological data from 13 countries

Persons with Down syndrome (DS) uniquely have an increased frequency of leukemias but a decreased total frequency of solid tumors. The distribution and frequency of specific types of brain tumors have never been studied in DS. We evaluated the frequency of primary neural cell embryonal tumors and gliomas in a large international data set. The observed number of children with DS having a medulloblastoma, central nervous system primitive neuroectodermal tumor (CNS-PNET) or glial tumor was compared to the expected number. Data were collected from cancer registries or brain tumor registries in 13 countries of Europe, America, Asia and Oceania. The number of DS children with each category of tumor was treated as a Poisson variable with mean equal to 0.000884 times the total number of registrations in that category. Among 8,043 neural cell embryonal tumors (6,882 medulloblastomas and 1,161 CNS-PNETs), only one patient with medulloblastoma had DS, while 7.11 children in total and 6.08 with medulloblastoma were expected to have DS. (p 0.016 and 0.0066 respectively). Among 13,797 children with glioma, 10 had DS, whereas 12.2 were expected. Children with DS appear to be specifically protected against primary neural cell embryonal tumors of the CNS, whereas gliomas occur at the same frequency as in the general population. A similar protection against neuroblastoma, the principal extracranial neural cell embryonal tumor, has been observed in children with DS. Additional genetic material on the supernumerary chromosome 21 may protect against embryonal neural cell tumor development.

Description of the ERA-CLIM historical upper-air data

Historical, i.e. pre-1957, upper-air data are a valuable source of information on the state of the atmosphere, in some parts of the world dating back to the early 20th century. However, to date, reanalyses have only partially made use of these data, and only of observations made after 1948. Even for the period between 1948 (the starting year of the NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis) and the International Geophysical Year in 1957 (the starting year of the ERA-40 reanalysis), when the global upper-air coverage reached more or less its current status, many observations have not yet been digitised. The Comprehensive Historical Upper-Air Network (CHUAN) already compiled a large collection of pre-1957 upper-air data. In the framework of the European project ERA-CLIM (European Reanalysis of Global Climate Observations), significant amounts of additional upper-air data have been catalogued (> 1.3 million station days), imaged (> 200 000 images) and digitised (> 700 000 station days) in order to prepare a new input data set for upcoming reanalyses. The records cover large parts of the globe, focussing on, so far, less well covered regions such as the tropics, the polar regions and the oceans, and on very early upper-air data from Europe and the US. The total number of digitised/inventoried records is 61/101 for moving upper-air data, i.e. data from ships, etc., and 735/1783 for fixed upper-air stations. Here, we give a detailed description of the resulting data set including the metadata and the quality checking procedures applied. The data will be included in the next version of CHUAN. The data are available at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.821222

Intergenerationale Mobilität im Lebensverlauf oder: Ist der öffentliche Dienst ein Mobilitätskanal zwischen Generationen?

Aus der Lebensverlaufsperspektive wird die intergenerationale Mobilität von Männern und Frauen in den Kohorten 1929-31, 1939-41 und 1949-51 untersucht. In welchem Umfang hat die Expansion des öffentlichen Dienstes Mobilitätschancen eröffnet? Inwieweit hat der öffentliche Dienst als Sonderstruktur im Gegensatz zur Privatwirtschaft seine Funktion als "Mobilitätskanal" ausgeweitet? Modifizieren für den öffentlichen Dienst charakteristische institutionelle Regelungen der Rekrutierung und Allokation von Arbeitskräften diese Funktion? Für empirische Analysen wurden Längsschnittdaten des Lebensverlaufsprojekts am Berliner Max-Planck-Institut für Bildungsforschung herangezogen. Zunehmende herkunftsbedingte und bildungsmäßige Ungleichheit bestimmen einen Großteil der Chancen intergenerationaler Mobilität. Die Ausdehnung der Staatsbeschäftigung hat dazu geführt, daß in der Kohortenabfolge vor allem die Berufsanfänger aufstiegen, die in der Lage waren, in den öffentlichen Dienst einzutreten. Das Nachholen beim Berufseinstieg verpaßter Aufstiege ist kaum möglich, und dies gelingt auch nicht durch die Beschäftigung im öffentlichen Dienst. Für die Wahrscheinlichkeit intergenerationaler Aufstiege im Berufsverlauf gibt es keine sektorspezifischen Unterschiede. Staatsbeschäftigte unterliegen aufgrund der Besitzstandswahrung einem deutlich geringeren Abstiegsrisiko als privatwirtschaftlich Beschäftigte. Der Staatssektor hat seine Funktion als Aufstiegskanal für Berufsanfänger ausgeweitet und garantiert seinen langfristig Beschäftigten die erreichte Statuslage. Damit ist der öffentliche Dienst ein weiteres Strukturprinzip sozialer Ungleichheit.

No sports – no mental health? Analysis of longitudinal effects in SHP data.

Results from the Zurich study have shown lasting associations between sport practice and mental health. The effects are pronounced in people with pre-exising mental health problems. This analysis aims to replicate these results with the large Swiss Household Panel data set and to provide more differentiated results. The analysis covered the interviews 1999-2003 and included 3891 stayers, i.e., participants who were interviewed in all years. The outcome variables are depression / blues / anxiety, weakness / weariness, sleeping problems, energy / optimism. Confounding variables include sex, age, education level, citizenship. The analyses were carried out with mixed models (depression, optimism) and GEE models (weakness, sleep). About 60% of the SHP participants practise weekly or daily an individual or a team sport. A similar proportion enjoys a frequent physical activity (for half an hour minimum) which makes oneself slightly breathless. There are slight age-specific differences but also noteworthy regional differences. Practice of sport is clearly interrelated with self-reported depressive symptoms, optimism and weakness. This applies even though some relevant confounders – sex, educational level and citizenship – were introduced into the model. However, no relevant interaction effects with time could be shown. Moreover, direct interrelations commonly led to better fits than models with lagged variables, thus indicating that delayed effects of sport practice on the self-reported psychological complaints are less important. Model variants resulted for specific subgroups, for example, participants with a high vs. low initial activity level. Lack of sport practice is an interesting marker for serious psychological symptoms and mental disorders. The background of this association may differ in different subgroups, and should stimulate further investigations in this area.

A thermodynamic model for di-trioctahedral chlorite from experimental and natural data in the system MgO-FeO-Al2O3-SiO2-H2O. Applications to P-T sections and geothermometry

We present a new thermodynamic activity-composition model for di-trioctahedral chlorite in the system FeO–MgO–Al2O3–SiO2–H2O that is based on the Holland–Powell internally consistent thermodynamic data set. The model is formulated in terms of four linearly independent end-members, which are amesite, clinochlore, daphnite and sudoite. These account for the most important crystal-chemical substitutions in chlorite, the Fe–Mg, Tschermak and di-trioctahedral substitution. The ideal part of end-member activities is modeled with a mixing-on-site formalism, and non-ideality is described by a macroscopic symmetric (regular) formalism. The symmetric interaction parameters were calibrated using a set of 271 published chlorite analyses for which robust independent temperature estimates are available. In addition, adjustment of the standard state thermodynamic properties of sudoite was required to accurately reproduce experimental brackets involving sudoite. This new model was tested by calculating representative P–T sections for metasediments at low temperatures (<400 °C), in particular sudoite and chlorite bearing metapelites from Crete. Comparison between the calculated mineral assemblages and field data shows that the new model is able to predict the coexistence of chlorite and sudoite at low metamorphic temperatures. The predicted lower limit of the chloritoid stability field is also in better agreement with petrological observations. For practical applications to metamorphic and hydrothermal environments, two new semi-empirical chlorite geothermometers named Chl(1) and Chl(2) were calibrated based on the chlorite + quartz + water equilibrium (2 clinochlore + 3 sudoite = 4 amesite + 4 H2O + 7 quartz). The Chl(1) thermometer requires knowledge of the (Fe3+/ΣFe) ratio in chlorite and predicts correct temperatures for a range of redox conditions. The Chl(2) geothermometer which assumes that all iron in chlorite is ferrous has been applied to partially recrystallized detrital chlorite from the Zone houillère in the French Western Alps.