Temperate Mountain Forest Biodiversity under Climate Change: Compensating Negative Effects by Increasing Structural Complexity

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species’ occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species’ occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change.

Climate change impacts on tree species, forest properties, and ecosystem services

– Swiss forests experience strong impacts under the CH2011 scenarios, partly even for the low greenhouse gas scenario RCP3PD. Negative impacts prevail in low-elevation forests, whereas mostly positive impacts are expected in high-elevation forests. – Major changes in the distribution of the two most important tree species, Norway spruce and European beech, are expected. Growth conditions for spruce improve in a broad range of scenarios at presently cool high-elevation sites with plentiful precipitation, but in the case of strong warming (A1B and A2) spruce and beech are at risk in large parts of the Swiss Plateau. – High elevation forests that are temperature-limited will show little change in species composition but an increase in biomass. In contrast, forests at low elevations in warm-dry inner-Alpine valleys are sensitive to even moderate warming and may no longer sustain current biomass and species. – Timber production potential, carbon storage, and protection from avalanches and rockfall react differently to climate change, with an overall tendency to deteriorate at low elevations, and improve at high elevations. – Climate change will affect forests also indirectly, e.g., by increasing the risk of infestation by spruce bark beetles, which will profit from an extended flight period and will produce more generations per year.

Comparing three CPR feedback devices and standard BLS in a single rescuer scenario: a randomised simulation study

BACKGROUND Efficiently performed basic life support (BLS) after cardiac arrest is proven to be effective. However, cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) is strenuous and rescuers' performance declines rapidly over time. Audio-visual feedback devices reporting CPR quality may prevent this decline. We aimed to investigate the effect of various CPR feedback devices on CPR quality. METHODS In this open, prospective, randomised, controlled trial we compared three CPR feedback devices (PocketCPR, CPRmeter, iPhone app PocketCPR) with standard BLS without feedback in a simulated scenario. 240 trained medical students performed single rescuer BLS on a manikin for 8min. Effective compression (compressions with correct depth, pressure point and sufficient decompression) as well as compression rate, flow time fraction and ventilation parameters were compared between the four groups. RESULTS Study participants using the PocketCPR performed 17±19% effective compressions compared to 32±28% with CPRmeter, 25±27% with the iPhone app PocketCPR, and 35±30% applying standard BLS (PocketCPR vs. CPRmeter p=0.007, PocketCPR vs. standard BLS p=0.001, others: ns). PocketCPR and CPRmeter prevented a decline in effective compression over time, but overall performance in the PocketCPR group was considerably inferior to standard BLS. Compression depth and rate were within the range recommended in the guidelines in all groups. CONCLUSION While we found differences between the investigated CPR feedback devices, overall BLS quality was suboptimal in all groups. Surprisingly, effective compression was not improved by any CPR feedback device compared to standard BLS. All feedback devices caused substantial delay in starting CPR, which may worsen outcome.

Evaluating the surveillance for swine dysentery and progressive atrophic Rhinitis in closed multiplier herds using Scenario tree modelling

Background: The Swiss pig population enjoys a favourable health situation. To further promote this, the Pig Health Service (PHS) conducts a surveillance program in affiliated herds: closed multiplier herds with the highest PHS-health and hygiene status have to be free from swine dysentery and progressive atrophic rhinitis and are clinically examined four times a year, including laboratory testing. Besides, four batches of pigs per year are fattened together with pigs from other herds and checked for typical symptoms (monitored fattening groups (MF)). While costly and laborious, little was known about the effectiveness of the surveillance to detect an infection in a herd. Therefore, the sensitivity of the surveillance for progressive atrophic rhinitis and swine dysentery at herd level was assessed using scenario tree modelling, a method well established at national level. Furthermore, its costs and the time until an infection would be detected were estimated, with the final aim of yielding suggestions how to optimize surveillance. Results: For swine dysentery, the median annual surveillance sensitivity was 96.7 %, mean time to detection 4.4 months, and total annual costs 1022.20 Euro/herd. The median component sensitivity of active sampling was between 62.5 and 77.0 %, that of a MF between 7.2 and 12.7 %. For progressive atrophic rhinitis, the median surveillance sensitivity was 99.4 %, mean time to detection 3.1 months and total annual costs 842.20 Euro. The median component sensitivity of active sampling was 81.7 %, that of a MF between 19.4 and 38.6 %. Conclusions: Results indicate that total sensitivity for both diseases is high, while time to detection could be a risk in herds with frequent pig trade. From all components, active sampling had the highest contribution to the surveillance sensitivity, whereas that of MF was very low. To increase efficiency, active sampling should be intensified (more animals sampled) and MF abandoned. This would significantly improve sensitivity and time to detection at comparable or lower costs. The method of scenario tree modelling proved useful to assess the efficiency of surveillance at herd level. Its versatility allows adjustment to all kinds of surveillance scenarios to optimize sensitivity, time to detection and/or costs.