External validation of the Hospital-patient One-year Mortality Risk (HOMR) model for predicting death within 1 year after hospital admission

BACKGROUND Predicting long-term survival after admission to hospital is helpful for clinical, administrative and research purposes. The Hospital-patient One-year Mortality Risk (HOMR) model was derived and internally validated to predict the risk of death within 1 year after admission. We conducted an external validation of the model in a large multicentre study. METHODS We used administrative data for all nonpsychiatric admissions of adult patients to hospitals in the provinces of Ontario (2003-2010) and Alberta (2011-2012), and to the Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston (2010-2012) to calculate each patient's HOMR score at admission. The HOMR score is based on a set of parameters that captures patient demographics, health burden and severity of acute illness. We determined patient status (alive or dead) 1 year after admission using population-based registries. RESULTS The 3 validation cohorts (n = 2,862,996 in Ontario, 210 595 in Alberta and 66,683 in Boston) were distinct from each other and from the derivation cohort. The overall risk of death within 1 year after admission was 8.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 8.7% to 8.8%). The HOMR score was strongly and significantly associated with risk of death in all populations and was highly discriminative, with a C statistic ranging from 0.89 (95% CI 0.87 to 0.91) to 0.92 (95% CI 0.91 to 0.92). Observed and expected outcome risks were similar (median absolute difference in percent dying in 1 yr 0.3%, interquartile range 0.05%-2.5%). INTERPRETATION The HOMR score, calculated using routinely collected administrative data, accurately predicted the risk of death among adult patients within 1 year after admission to hospital for nonpsychiatric indications. Similar performance was seen when the score was used in geographically and temporally diverse populations. The HOMR model can be used for risk adjustment in analyses of health administrative data to predict long-term survival among hospital patients.

H19 lncRNA alters stromal cell growth via IGF signaling in the endometrium of women with endometriosis

Endometriosis affects approximately 15% of reproductive aged women and is associated with chronic pelvic pain and infertility. However, the molecular mechanisms by which endometriosis impacts fertility are poorly understood. The developmentally regulated, imprinted H19 long noncoding RNA (lncRNA) functions to reduce the bioavailability of microRNA let-7 by acting as a molecular sponge. Here we report that H19 expression is significantly decreased in the eutopic endometrium of women with endometriosis as compared to normal controls. We show that decreased H19 increases let-7 activity, which in turn inhibits Igf1r expression at the post-transcriptional level, thereby contributing to reduced proliferation of endometrial stromal cells. We propose that perturbation of this newly identified H19/Let-7/IGF1R regulatory pathway may contribute to impaired endometrial preparation and receptivity for pregnancy in women with endometriosis. Our finding represents the first example of a lncRNA-based mechanism in endometriosis and its associated infertility, thus holding potential in the development of novel therapeutics for women with endometriosis and infertility.

Long-term data from the Swiss pulmonary hypertension registry.

BACKGROUND Registries are important for real-life epidemiology on different pulmonary hypertension (PH) groups. OBJECTIVE To provide long-term data of the Swiss PH registry of 1998-2012. METHODS PH patients have been classified into 5 groups and registered upon written informed consent at 5 university and 8 associated hospitals since 1998. New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, 6-min walk distance, hemodynamics and therapy were registered at baseline. Patients were regularly followed, and therapy and events (death, transplantation, endarterectomy or loss to follow-up) registered. The data were stratified according to the time of diagnosis into prevalent before 2000 and incident during 2000-2004, 2005-2008 and 2009-2012. RESULTS From 996 (53% female) PH patients, 549 had pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), 36 PH due to left heart disease, 127 due to lung disease, 249 to chronic thromboembolic PH (CTEPH) and 35 to miscellaneous PH. Age and BMI significantly increased over time, whereas hemodynamic severity decreased. Overall, event-free survival was 84, 72, 64 and 58% for the years 1-4 and similar for time periods since 2000, but better during the more recent periods for PAH and CTEPH. Of all PAH cases, 89% had target medical therapy and 43% combination therapy. Of CTEPH patients, 14 and 2% underwent pulmonary endarterectomy or transplantation, respectively; 87% were treated with PAH target therapy. CONCLUSION Since 2000, the incident Swiss PH patients registered were older, hemodynamically better and mostly treated with PAH target therapies. Survival has been better for PAH and CTEPH diagnosed since 2008 compared with earlier diagnosis or other classifications.

Serotype/serogroup-specific antibiotic non-susceptibility of invasive and non-invasive Streptococcus pneumoniae, Switzerland, 2004 to 2014.

Concurrent analysis of antibiotic resistance of colonising and invasive Streptococcus pneumoniae gives a more accurate picture than looking at either of them separately. Therefore, we analysed 2,129 non-invasive and 10,996 invasive pneumococcal isolates from Switzerland from 2004 to 2014, which spans the time before and after the introduction of the heptavalent (PCV7) and 13-valent (PCV13) conjugated pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccines. Serotype/serogroup information was linked with all antibiotic resistance profiles. During the study period, the proportion of non-susceptible non-invasive and invasive isolates significantly decreased for penicillin, ceftriaxone, erythromycin and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMX). This was most apparent in non-invasive isolates from study subjects younger than five years (penicillin (p = 0.006), erythromycin (p = 0.01) and TMP-SMX (p = 0.002)). Resistant serotypes/serogroups included in PCV7 and/or PCV13 decreased and were replaced by non-PCV13 serotypes (6C and 15B/C). Serotype/serogroup-specific antibiotic resistance rates were comparable between invasive and non-invasive isolates. Adjusted odds ratios of serotype/serogroup-specific penicillin resistance were significantly higher in the west of Switzerland for serotype 6B (1.8; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.4-4.8), 9V (3.4; 95% CI: 2.0-5.7), 14 (5.3; 95% CI: 3.8-7.5), 19A (2.2; 95% CI: 1.6-3.1) and 19F (3.1; 95% CI: 2.1-4.6), probably due to variations in the antibiotic consumption.