Importance sampling approximations to various probabilities of ruin of spectrally negative Lévy risk processes

This article provides importance sampling algorithms for computing the probabilities of various types ruin of spectrally negative Lévy risk processes, which are ruin over the infinite time horizon, ruin within a finite time horizon and ruin past a finite time horizon. For the special case of the compound Poisson process perturbed by diffusion, algorithms for computing probabilities of ruins by creeping (i.e. induced by the diffusion term) and by jumping (i.e. by a claim amount) are provided. It is shown that these algorithms have either bounded relative error or logarithmic efficiency, as t,x→∞t,x→∞, where t>0t>0 is the time horizon and x>0x>0 is the starting point of the risk process, with y=t/xy=t/x held constant and assumed either below or above a certain constant.

Superior functional outcome after radical cystectomy and orthotopic bladder substitution with restrictive intraoperative fluid management: a followup study of a randomized clinical trial

PURPOSE Continuous intraoperative norepinephrine infusion combined with restrictive deferred hydration improves surgical field visibility, and significantly decreases intraoperative blood loss and postoperative complications in patients undergoing radical cystectomy and urinary diversion. We determined whether the intraoperative fluid regimen would affect functional results (continence and erectile function) 1 year after orthotopic ileal bladder substitution. MATERIALS AND METHODS We analyzed a subgroup of 93 patients who received an ileal orthotopic bladder substitute. The subgroup was part of a randomized trial in 167 patients initially allocated to continuous norepinephrine administration starting with 2 μg/kg per hour combined with 1 ml/kg per hour initially and 3 ml/kg per hour crystalloid infusion after cystectomy (norepinephrine/low volume group of 51) or a standard crystalloid infusion of 6 ml/kg per hour throughout surgery (42 controls). We prospectively assessed daytime and nighttime continence, and erectile function 1 year postoperatively in the 93-patient subgroup. RESULTS Daytime continence was reported by 44 of 51 patients (86%) in the norepinephrine/low volume group and by 27 of 42 controls (64%) (p = 0.016), and nighttime continence was reported by 38 (75%) and 25 (60%), respectively (p = 0.077). Erectile function recovery was reported by 26 of 33 preoperatively potent patients (79%) in the norepinephrine/low volume group and by 11 of 29 controls (38%) (p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS Patients who undergo radical cystectomy and orthotopic bladder substitution with continuous norepinephrine infusion and restrictive hydration during surgery have significantly better daytime continence and erectile function 1 year postoperatively.

A Genome-Wide Association Study Reveals Loci Influencing Height and Other Conformation Traits in Horses

The molecular analysis of genes influencing human height has been notoriously difficult. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for height in humans based on tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of samples so far revealed ∼200 loci for human height explaining only 20% of the heritability. In domestic animals isolated populations with a greatly reduced genetic heterogeneity facilitate a more efficient analysis of complex traits. We performed a genome-wide association study on 1,077 Franches-Montagnes (FM) horses using ∼40,000 SNPs. Our study revealed two QTL for height at withers on chromosomes 3 and 9. The association signal on chromosome 3 is close to the LCORL/NCAPG genes. The association signal on chromosome 9 is close to the ZFAT gene. Both loci have already been shown to influence height in humans. Interestingly, there are very large intergenic regions at the association signals. The two detected QTL together explain ∼18.2% of the heritable variation of height in horses. However, another large fraction of the variance for height in horses results from ECA 1 (11.0%), although the association analysis did not reveal significantly associated SNPs on this chromosome. The QTL region on ECA 3 associated with height at withers was also significantly associated with wither height, conformation of legs, ventral border of mandible, correctness of gaits, and expression of the head. The region on ECA 9 associated with height at withers was also associated with wither height, length of croup and length of back. In addition to these two QTL regions on ECA 3 and ECA 9 we detected another QTL on ECA 6 for correctness of gaits. Our study highlights the value of domestic animal populations for the genetic analysis of complex traits.

There is a place for radical cystectomy and urinary diversion, including orthotopic bladder substitution, in patients aged 75 and older: Results of a retrospective observational analysis from a high-volume center

INTRODUCTION The incidence of cancer increases with age and owing to the changing demographics we are increasingly confronted with treating bladder cancer in old patients. We report our results in patients>75 years of age who underwent open radical cystectomy (RC) and urinary diversion. MATERIAL AND METHODS From January 2000 to March 2013, a consecutive series of 224 old patients with complete follow-up who underwent RC and urinary diversion (ileal orthotopic bladder substitute [OBS], ileal conduit [IC], and ureterocutaneostomy [UCST]) were included in this retrospective single-center study. End points were the 90-day complication rates (Clavien-Dindo classification), 90-day mortality rates, overall and cancer-specific survival rates, and continence rates (OBS). RESULTS Median age was 79.2 years (range: 75.1-91.6); 35 of the 224 patients (17%) received an OBS, 178 of the 224 patients (78%) an IC, and 11 of the 224 patients (5%) an UCST. The 90-day complication rate was 54.3% in the OBS (major: Clavien grade 3-5: 22.9%, minor: Clavien Grade 1-2: 31.4%), 56.7% in the IC (major: 27%, minor: 29.8%), and 63.6% in the UCST group (major: 36.4%, minor: 27.3%); P = 0.001. The 90-day mortality was 0% in the OBS group, 13% in the IC group, and 10% in the UCST group (P = 0.077). The Glasgow prognostic score was an independent predictor of all survival parameters assessed, including 90-day mortality. Median follow-up was 22 months. Overall and cancer-specific survivals were 90 and 98, 47 and 91, and 11 and 12 months for OBS, IC, and UCST, respectively. In OBS patients, daytime continence was considered as dry in 66% and humid in 20% of patients. Nighttime continence was dry in 46% and humid 26% of patients. CONCLUSION With careful patient selection, oncological and functional outcome after RC can be good in old patients. Old age as the sole criterion should not preclude the indication for RC or the option of OBS. In old patients undergoing OBS, satisfactory continence results can be achieved.

Impact of case-relevant and case-irrelevant communication within the surgical team on surgical-site infection

BACKGROUND Surgical-site infections (SSIs) are the most common complications after surgery. An influence from talking and distractions during surgery on patient outcomes has been suggested, but there is limited evidence. The aim of this prospective observational study was to assess the relationship between intraoperative communication within the surgical team and SSI, and between intraoperative distractions and SSI. METHODS This prospective observational study included patients undergoing elective, open abdominal procedures. For each procedure, intraoperative case-relevant and case-irrelevant communication, and intraoperative distractions were observed continuously on site. The influence of communication and distractions on SSI after surgery was assessed using logistic regressions, adjusting for risk factors. RESULTS A total of 167 observed procedures were analysed; their mean(s.d.) duration was 4·6(2·1) h. A total of 24 SSIs (14·4 per cent) were diagnosed. Case-relevant communication during the procedure was independently associated with a reduced incidence of organ/space SSI (propensity score-adjusted odds ratio 0·86, 95 per cent c.i. 0·77 to 0·97; P = 0·014). Case-irrelevant communication during the closing phase of the procedure was independently associated with increased incidence of incisional SSI (propensity score-adjusted odds ratio 1·29, 1·08 to 1·55; P = 0·006). Distractions had no association with SSI. CONCLUSION More case-relevant communication was associated with fewer organ/space SSIs, and more case-irrelevant communication during wound closure was associated with incisional SSI.

Effect of calf purchase and other herd-level risk factors on mortality, unwanted early slaughter, and use of antimicrobial group treatments in Swiss veal calf operations.

The objective of this survey was to determine herd level risk factors for mortality, unwanted early slaughter, and metaphylactic application of antimicrobial group therapy in Swiss veal calves in 2013. A questionnaire regarding farm structure, farm management, mortality and antimicrobial use was sent to all farmers registered in a Swiss label program setting requirements for improved animal welfare and sustainability. Risk factors were determined by multivariable logistic regression. A total of 619 veal producers returned a useable questionnaire (response rate=28.5%), of which 40.9% only fattened their own calves (group O), 56.9% their own calves and additional purchased calves (group O&P), and 2.3% only purchased calves for fattening (group P). A total number of 19,077 calves entered the fattening units in 2013, of which 21.7%, 66.7%, and 11.6% belonged to groups O, O&P, and P, respectively. Mortality was 0% in 322 herds (52.0%), between 0% and 3% in 47 herds (7.6%), and ≥3% in 250 herds (40.4%). Significant risk factors for mortality were purchasing calves, herd size, higher incidence of BRD, and access to an outside pen. Metaphylaxis was used on 13.4% of the farms (7.9% only upon arrival, 4.4% only later in the fattening period, 1.1% upon arrival and later), in 3.2% of the herds of group O, 17.9% of those in group O&P, and 92.9% of those of group P. Application of metaphylaxis upon arrival was positively associated with purchase (OR=8.9) and herd size (OR=1.2 per 10 calves). Metaphylaxis later in the production cycle was positively associated with group size (OR=2.9) and risk of respiratory disease (OR=1.2 per 10% higher risk) and negatively with the use of individual antimicrobial treatment (OR=0.3). In many countries, purchase and a large herd size are inherently connected to veal production. The Swiss situation with large commercial but also smaller herds with little or no purchase of calves made it possible to investigate the effect of these factors on mortality and antimicrobial drug use. The results of this study show that a system where small farms raise the calves from their own herds has a substantial potential to improve animal health and reduce antimicrobial drug use.