Potential drought stress in a Swiss mountain catchment-Ensemble forecasting of high mountain soil moisture reveals a drastic decrease, despite major uncertainties

Climate change is expected to profoundly influence the hydrosphere of mountain ecosystems. The focus of current process-based research is centered on the reaction of glaciers and runoff to climate change; spatially explicit impacts on soil moisture remain widely neglected. We spatio-temporally analyzed the impact of the climate on soil moisture in a mesoscale high mountain catchment to facilitate the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies at the level of vegetation patterns. Two regional climate models were downscaled using three different approaches (statistical downscaling, delta change, and direct use) to drive a hydrological model (WaSiM-ETH) for reference and scenario period (1960–1990 and 2070–2100), resulting in an ensemble forecast of six members. For all ensembles members we found large changes in temperature, resulting in decreasing snow and ice storage and earlier runoff, but only small changes in evapotranspiration. The occurrence of downscaled dry spells was found to fluctuate greatly, causing soil moisture depletion and drought stress potential to show high variability in both space and time. In general, the choice of the downscaling approach had a stronger influence on the results than the applied regional climate model. All of the results indicate that summer soil moisture decreases, which leads to more frequent declines below a critical soil moisture level and an advanced evapotranspiration deficit. Forests up to an elevation of 1800 m a.s.l. are likely to be threatened the most, while alpine areas and most pastures remain nearly unaffected. Nevertheless, the ensemble variability was found to be extremely high and should be interpreted as a bandwidth of possible future drought stress situations.

[Heifer breeding farms as a source for spreading the BVD virus?]

It is well known that, in Switzerland, communal grazing of livestock on alpine pastures plays an important role in the spread of BVD virus. Analogously, we might expect that the communal raising on farms specialising in raising heifers of animals born on different farms would also favour the spread of BVDV. This study investigated whether a persistently infected (PI) breeding heifer kept on this type of farm over a period of 26 months would put the other animals at risk of being infected.The PI-animal was in contact with 75 heifers (here defined as contact animals) on this farm. Thirty-two of the contact animals that were probably pregnant (animals at risk of giving birth to a PI-calf) were moved to 8 different breeding farms (here defined as farms at risk). On these 8 farms, 246 calves were found to be at risk of being infected with BVDV. We examined 78 calves and investigated whether the move of the pregnant animals from their original farm had permitted the virus to spread to these 8 other farms.The contact animals had a seroprevalence of 92% and the animals at risk a seroprevalence of 100%. Only one PI-animal was found on the farms at risk.This BVD infection, however, occurred independently of the PI-breeding animal. Seropositive calves were found only on 2 farms. This study did not provide any proof for a spread of BVDV with the PI-breeding animal as a source; likewise, no persistent infection was proven to exist on the farms at risk. This result is likely to be representative for the endemic situation of BVD in Switzerland. Thus, PI-animals present on heifer raising farms infect calves well before servicing. Hence, no new PI-animals are generated, and the infection becomes self-limiting. When we reconstructed the animal movements between the farms and determined the animals to be examined with the aid of the Swiss national animal traffic database (TVD) we found the data of 37% of the heifers to be incomplete and failed to successfully establish the whereabouts of 3 animals.

New constraints on the gas age-ice age difference along the EPICA ice cores, 0-50 kyr

Gas is trapped in polar ice sheets at ~50–120 m below the surface and is therefore younger than the surrounding ice. Firn densification models are used to evaluate this ice age-gas age difference (Δage) in the past. However, such models need to be validated by data, in particular for periods colder than present day on the East Antarctic plateau. Here we bring new constraints to test a firn densification model applied to the EPICA Dome C (EDC) site for the last 50 kyr, by linking the EDC ice core to the EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML) ice core, both in the ice phase (using volcanic horizons) and in the gas phase (using rapid methane variations). We also use the structured 10Be peak, occurring 41 kyr before present (BP) and due to the low geomagnetic field associated with the Laschamp event, to experimentally estimate the Δage during this event. Our results seem to reveal an overestimate of the Δage by the firn densification model during the last glacial period at EDC. Tests with different accumulation rates and temperature scenarios do not entirely resolve this discrepancy. Although the exact reasons for the Δage overestimate at the two EPICA sites remain unknown at this stage, we conclude that current densification model simulations have deficits under glacial climatic conditions. Whatever the cause of the Δage overestimate, our finding suggests that the phase relationship between CO2 and EDC temperature previously inferred for the start of the last deglaciation (lag of CO2 by 800±600 yr) seems to be overestimated.

Colonization history of the Swiss Rhine basin by the bullhead (Cottus gobio): inference under a Bayesian spatially explicit framework

The present distribution of freshwater fish in the Alpine region has been strongly affected by colonization events occurring after the last glacial maximum (LGM), some 20,000 years ago. We use here a spatially explicit simulation framework to model and better understand their colonization dynamics in the Swiss Rhine basin. This approach is applied to the European bullhead (Cottus gobio), which is an ideal model organism to study fish past demographic processes since it has not been managed by humans. The molecular diversity of eight sampled populations is simulated and compared to observed data at six microsatellite loci under an approximate Bayesian computation framework to estimate the parameters of the colonization process. Our demographic estimates fit well with current knowledge about the biology of this species, but they suggest that the Swiss Rhine basin was colonized very recently, after the Younger Dryas some 6600 years ago. We discuss the implication of this result, as well as the strengths and limits of the spatially explicit approach coupled to the approximate Bayesian computation framework.

Agricultural land use and biodiversity in the Alps - How cultural tradition and socioeconomically motivated changes are shaping grassland biodiversity in the Swiss Alps

Alpine grasslands are ecosystems with a great diversity of plant species. However, little is known about other levels of biodiversity, such as landscape diversity, diversity of biological interactions of plants with herbivores or fungal pathogens, and genetic diversity. We therefore explored natural and anthropogenic determinants of grassland biodiversity at several levels of biological integration, from the genetic to the landscape level in the Swiss Alps. Differences between cultural traditions (Romanic, Germanic, and Walser) turned out to still affect land use diversity and thus landscape diversity. Increasing land use diversity, in turn, increased plant species diversity per village. However, recent land use changes have reduced this diversity. Within grassland parcels, plant species diversity was higher on unfertilized mown grasslands than on fertilized or grazed ones. Most individual plants were affected by herbivores and fungal leaf pathogens, reflecting that parcels harbored a great diversity of herbivores and pathogens. However, as plant damage by herbivores and pathogens was not severe, conserving these biological interactions among plants is hardly compromising agricultural goals. A common-garden experiment revealed genetic differentiation of the important fodder grass Poa alpina between mown and grazed sites, suggesting adaptation. Per-village genetic diversity of Poa alpina was greater in villages with higher land use diversity, analogous to the higher plant species diversity there. Overall, landscape diversity and biodiversity within grassland parcels are currently declining. As this contradicts the intention of Swiss law and international agreements, financial incentives need to be re-allocated and should focus on promoting high biodiversity at the local and the landscape level. At the same time, this will benefit landscape attractiveness for tourists and help preserve a precious cultural heritage in the Swiss Alps.

Spatial isolation and genetic differentiation in naturally fragmented plant populations of the Swiss Alps

Aims The effect Of anthropogenic landscape fragmentation on the genetic diversity and adaptive potential of plant populations is a major issue in conservation biology. However, little is known about the partitioning of genetic diversity in alpine species, which occur in naturally fragmented habitats. Here, we, investigate molecular patterns of three alpine plants (Epilobium fleischeri, Geum reptans and Campanula thyrsoides) across Switzerland and ask whether Spatial isolation has led to high levels of populations differentiation, increasing over distance, and a decrease of within-population variability. We further hypothesize that file contrasting potential for long-distance dispersal (LDD) of Seed in these Species will considerably influence and explain diversity partitioning. Methods For each study species, we Sampled 20-23 individuals from each of 20-32 populations across entire Switzerland. We applied Random Amplified Polymorphic Dimorphism markers to assess genetic diversity within (Nei's expected heterozygosity, H-e; percentage of polymorphic hands, P-P) and among (analysis of molecular variance, Phi(st)) populations and correlated population size and altitude with within-populalion diversity. Spatial patterns of genetic relatedness were investigated using Mantel tests and standardized major axis regression as well as unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean cluster analyses and Monmonier's algorithm. To avoid known biases, We standardized the numbers of populations, individuals and markers using multiple random reductions. We modelled LDD with a high alpine wind data set using the terminal velocity and height of seed release as key parameters. Additionally, we assessed a number of important life-history traits and factors that potentially influence genetic diversity partitioning (e.g. breeding system, longevity and population size). Important findings For all three species, We found a significant isolation-by-distance relationship but only a moderately high differentiation among populations (Phi(st): 22.7, 48 and 16.8%, for E. fleischeri, G. reptans and C. thyrsoides, respectively). Within-population diversity (H-c: 0.19-0.21, P-p: 62-75%) was not reduced in comparison to known results from lowland species and even small populations with < 50 reproductive individuals contained high levels of genetic diversity. We further found no indication that a high long-distance seed dispersal potential enhances genetic connectivity among populations. Gene flow seems to have a strong stochastic component causing large dissimilarity between population pairs irrespective of the spatial distance. Our results suggest that other life-history traits, especially the breeding System, may play an important role in genetic diversity partitioning. We conclude that spatial isolation in the alpine environment has a strong influence on population relatedness but that a number of factors can considerably influence the strength of this relationship.

The role of landuse and natural determinants for grassland vegetation composition in the Swiss Alps

The Alps provide a high habitat diversity for plant species, structured by broad- and fine-scale abiotic site conditions. In man-made grasslands, vegetation composition is additionally affected by the type of landuse. We recorded vegetation composition in 216 parcels of grassland in 12 municipalities representing an area of 170 x 70 km in the south-eastern part of the Swiss Alps. Each parcel was characterized by a combination of altitudinal level (valley, intermediate, alp). traditional landuse (mown. grazed), current management (mown, grazed, abandoned). and Fertilization (unfertilized, fertilized). For each parcel we also assessed the abiotic factors aspect, slope, pH value, and geographic coordinates, and for each municipality annual precipitation and its cultural tradition. We analysed vegetation composition using (i) variation partitioning in RDA. (ii) cover of graminoids. non-legume forbs, and legumes, and (iii) dominance and frequency of species. Species composition was determined by, in decreasing order of variation explained. landuse, broad-scale abiotic factors, fine-scale abiotic factors. and cultural tradition. Current socio-economically motivated landuse changes, such as grazing of unfertilized former meadows or their abandonment, strongly affect vegetation composition. In our study, the frequency of characteristic meadow species was significantly smaller in grazed and even smaller in abandoned parcels than in still mown ones, suggesting less severe consequences of grazing for vegetation composition than of abandonment. Therefore. low-intensity grazing and mowing every few years should be considered valuable conservation alternatives to abandonment. Furthermore. because each landuse type was characterized by different species. a high variety of landuse types should be promoted to preserve plant species diversity in Alpine grasslands. (C) 2007 Gesellschaft fur Okologie. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Ultrasonic acoustic emissions in drought-stressed trees - more than signals from cavitation?

Ultrasonic acoustic emission (UAE) in trees is often related to collapsing water columns in the flow path as a result of tensions that are too strong (cavitation). However, in a decibel (dB) range below that associated with cavitation, a close relationship was found between UAE intensities and stem radius changes. • UAE was continuously recorded on the stems of mature field-grown trees of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and pubescent oak (Quercus pubescens) at a dry inner-Alpine site in Switzerland over two seasons. The averaged 20-Hz records were related to microclimatic conditions in air and soil, sap-flow rates and stem-radius fluctuations de-trended for growth (ΔW). • Within a low-dB range (27 ± 1 dB), UAE regularly increased and decreased in a diurnal rhythm in parallel with ΔW on cloudy days and at night. These low-dB emissions were interrupted by UAE abruptly switching between the low-dB range and a high-dB range (36 ± 1 dB) on clear, sunny days, corresponding to the widely supported interpretation of UAE as sound from cavitations. • It is hypothesized that the low-dB signals in drought-stressed trees are caused by respiration and/or cambial growth as these physiological activities are tissue water-content dependent and have been shown to produce courses of CO2 efflux similar to our courses of ΔW and low-dB UAE.

Four thousand years of vegetation and fire history in the spruce forests of northern Kyrgyzstan (Kungey Alatau, Central Asia)

Analyses of pollen, macrofossils and microscopic charcoal in the sediment of a small sub-alpine lake (Karakol, Kyrgyzstan) provide new data to reconstruct the vegetation history of the Kungey Alatau spruce forest during the late-Holocene, i.e. the past 4,000 years. The pollen data suggest that Picea schrenkiana F. and M. was the dominant tree in this region from the beginning of the record. The pollen record of pronounced die-backs of the forests, along with lithostratigraphical evidence, points to possible climatic cooling (and/or drying) around 3,800 cal year B.P., and between 3,350 and 2,520 cal year B.P., with a culmination at 2,800-2,600 cal B.P., although stable climatic conditions are reported for this region for the past 3,000-4,000 years in previous studies. From 2,500 to 190 cal year B.P. high pollen values of P. schrenkiana suggest rather closed and dense forests under the environmental conditions of that time. A marked decline in spruce forests occurred with the onset of modern human activities in the region from 190 cal year B.P. These results show that the present forests are anthropogenically reduced and represent only about half of their potential natural extent. As P. schrenkiana is a species endemic to the western Tien Shan, it is most likely that its refugium was confined to this region. However, our palaeoecological record is too recent to address this hypothesis thoroughly.

Response of temperate grasslands at different altitudes to simulated summer drought differed but scaled with annual precipitation

Water is an important resource for plant life. Since climate scenarios for Switzerland predict an average reduction of 20% in summer precipitation until 2070, understanding ecosystem responses to water shortage, e.g. in terms of plant productivity, is of major concern. Thus, we tested the effects of simulated summer drought on three managed grasslands along an altitudinal gradient in Switzerland from 2005 to 2007, representing typical management intensities at the respective altitude. We assessed the effects of experimental drought on above- and below-ground productivity, stand structure (LAI and vegetation height) and resource use (carbon and water). Responses of community above-ground productivity to reduced precipitation input differed among the three sites but scaled positively with total annual precipitation at the sites (R2=0.85). Annual community above-ground biomass productivity was significantly reduced by summer drought at the alpine site receiving the least amount of annual precipitation, while no significant decrease (rather an increase) was observed at the pre-alpine site receiving highest precipitation amounts in all three years. At the lowland site (intermediate precipitation sums), biomass productivity significantly decreased in response to drought only in the third year, after showing increased abundance of a drought tolerant weed species in the second year. No significant change in below-ground biomass productivity was observed at any of the sites in response to simulated summer drought. However, vegetation carbon isotope ratios increased under drought conditions, indicating an increase in water use efficiency. We conclude that there is no general drought response of Swiss grasslands, but that sites with lower annual precipitation seem to be more vulnerable to summer drought than sites with higher annual precipitation, and thus site-specific adaptation of management strategies will be needed, especially in regions with low annual precipitation.

Species-specific stomatal response of trees to drought - a link to vegetation dynamics?

Question: Is stomatal regulation specific for climate and tree species, and does it reveal species-specific responses to drought? Is there a link to vegetation dynamics? Location: Dry inner alpine valley, Switzerland Methods: Stomatal aperture (θE) of Pinus sylvestris, Quercus pubescens, Juniperus communis and Picea abies were continuously estimated by the ratio of measured branch sap flow rates to potential transpiration rates (adapted Penman-Monteith single leaf approach) at 10-min intervals over four seasons. Results: θE proved to be specific for climate and species and revealed distinctly different drought responses: Pinus stomata close disproportionately more than neighbouring species under dry conditions, but has a higher θE than the other species when weather was relatively wet and cool. Quercus keeps stomata more open under drought stress but has a lower θE under humid conditions. Juniperus was most drought-tolerant, whereas Picea stomata close almost completely during summer. Conclusions: The distinct microclimatic preferences of the four tree species in terms of θE strongly suggest that climate (change) is altering tree physiological performances and thus species-specific competitiveness. Picea and Pinus currently live at the physiological limit of their ability to withstand increasing temperature and drought intensities at the sites investigated, whereas Quercus and Juniperus perform distinctly better. This corresponds, at least partially, with regional vegetation dynamics: Pinus has strongly declined, whereas Quercus has significantly increased in abundance in the past 30 years. We conclude that θE provides an indication of a species' ability to cope with current and predicted climate.