A covariance analysis to optimize the optical follow-up strategies

The Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB) is conducting several search campaigns for space debris using optical sensors. The debris objects are discovered during systematic survey observations. In general, the result of a discovery consists in only a short observation arc, or tracklet, which is used to perform a first orbit determination in order to be able to observe t he object again in subsequent follow-up observations. The additional observations are used in the orbit improvement process to obtain accurate orbits to be included in a catalogue. In order to obtain the most accurate orbit within the time available it is necessary to optimize the follow-up observations strategy. In this paper an in‐depth study, using simulations and covariance analysis, is performed to identify the optimal sequence of follow-up observations to obtain the most accurate orbit propagation to be used for the space debris catalogue maintenance. The main factors that determine the accuracy of the results of an orbit determination/improvement process are: tracklet length, number of observations, type of orbit, astrometric error of the measurements, time interval between tracklets, and the relative position of the object along its orbit with respect to the observing station. The main aim of the covariance analysis is to optimize the follow-up strategy as a function of the object-observer geometry, the interval between follow-up observations and the shape of the orbit. This an alysis can be applied to every orbital regime but particular attention was dedicated to geostationary, Molniya, and geostationary transfer orbits. Finally the case with more than two follow-up observations and the influence of a second observing station are also analyzed.

Workshop: ASSIP - Attempted Suicide Short Intervention Program. Theory, Practice, and 24 Months Follow-up RCT.

Background: ASSIP is a manualized brief therapy based on a model of suicide as goal-directed action, aimed at establishing a therapeutic alliance in a patient-oriented, collaborative approach. The main goals of the three-session program ASSIP are for patients to understand, from an observer’s position, patterns leading to a suicidal crisis, recognize triggers and warning signs, and to establish individual safety strategies for future suicidal crises. An ongoing therapeutic support is provided with regular letters over 24 months. Method: The study was conducted in a naturalistic setting. 120 Patients were randomly assigned to an intervention group (60 participants) treated with ASSIP combined with follow-up contact through letters, and a control group (60 participants) receiving a single session of clinical assessment. Both groups had treatment as usual. Patients completed a set of psychosocial and clinical questionnaires every six months over a period of 24 months. Results: In the ASSIP group 5 patients made a total of 5 reattempts, compared to 15 patients with 41 reattempts in the control group. The survival analysis yielded a significant difference with a Wald Chi2 of .000003. The ASSIP group had significantly lower suicidal ideation and fewer days of inpatient treatment compared to the control group. Higher scores in the Penn Helping Alliance Questionnaire were associated with lower suicidal ideation during follow-up. Conclusions: ASSIP is a highly effective brief therapy for patients with recent suicide attempts. Forming a strong therapeutic alliance is considered to be a major factor for outcome. ASSIP can be used with minimal training by experienced therapists. An English version of the manual will be published in May 2015.

Long-term follow-up after implantation of the Shelhigh® No-React® complete biological aortic valved conduit†.

OBJECTIVES Long-term follow-up reports after implantation of the Shelhigh® (Shelhigh, Inc., NJ, USA) No-React® aortic valved conduit used for aortic root replacement do not exist. METHODS Between November 1998 and December 2007, the Shelhigh® No-React® aortic valved conduit was implanted in 291 consecutive patients with a mean age of 69.6 ± 9.1 years, and 33.7% were female (n = 98). Indications were annulo-aortic ectasia (n = 202), aortic valve stenosis combined with ascending aortic aneurysm (n = 67), acute type A aortic dissection (n = 29), endocarditis (n = 26) and other related pathologies (n = 48) including 62 patients with previous cardiac surgery. Data from two cardiac institutions were analysed retrospectively using SPSS (SPSS Software IBM, Inc., 2014, NY, USA). RESULTS Operative mortality was 10% (n = 29). Main cause of death was cardiac failure in 15 patients (51.8%), neurological events in 6 patients (20.7%), respiratory failure in 4 patients (13.8%), bleeding complications in 2 patients (6.9%) and gastrointestinal ischaemia in 2 cases (6.9%). There were 262 hospital survivors and all were entered in the follow-up study (100% complete). During the long-term follow-up (mean 70.3 ± 53.1 in months), a total of 126/262 patients (44.3%) died. Main causes of death in patients after discharge were cardiac (n = 37, 14.1%), neurological (n = 15, 5.7%) respiratory (n = 12, 4.6%), endocarditis (n = 12, 4.6%) and peripheral vascular disease (n = 5, 1.9%). In 29 (11.1%) patients, the cause of death could not be determined. Reoperation was required in 25 (8.6%) patients due to infection of the conduit (n = 9), aortoventricular disconnection (n = 4), pseudoaneurysm formation (n = 4) and structural valve degeneration (n = 8). Reoperations were performed 5.0 ± 3.8 (range 0.1-11.7) years after index surgery. CONCLUSIONS The Shelhigh® No-React® aortic valved conduit showed satisfactory short-term operative results. However, the long-term follow-up revealed a relatively high rate of deaths, which may be explained by the epidemiology of the patient group, but a substantial proportion of deaths could not be clarified. The overall rate of reoperation (8.6%) during the mid-term follow-up is worrisome and the failures due to aortoventricular disconnection, endocarditis and pseudoaneurysm formation remain unexplained. The redo-procedures were technically demanding. We recommend close follow-up of patients with the Shelhigh® No-React® aortic valved conduit, because besides classical structural valve degeneration, unexpected findings may be observed.

Changes in Left Ventricular Torsion Early Postoperatively After Aortic Valve Replacement and at Long-Term Follow-up.

OBJECTIVE In patients with aortic stenosis, left ventricular systolic torsion (pT) is increased to overcome excessive afterload. This study assessed left ventricular torsion before and immediately after surgical valve replacement and tested the instant effect of fluid loading. DESIGN Prospective, clinical single-center study. SETTING Intensive care unit of a university hospital. PARTICIPANTS 12 patients undergoing elective aortic valve replacement for aortic stenosis. INTERVENTIONS Echocardiography was performed on the day before surgery, within 18 hours after surgery including a fluid challenge, and after 2.5 years. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS pT decreased early postoperatively by 21.2% (23.4° ± 5.6° to 18.4° ± 6.9°; p = 0.012) and reached preoperative values at 2.5 years follow-up (24 ± 7). Peak diastolic untwisting velocity occurred later early postoperatively (13% ± 8% to 21% ± 9.4%; p = 0.019) and returned toward preoperative values at follow-up (10.2 ± 4.7°). The fluid challenge increased central venous pressure (8 ± 4 mmHg to 11 ± 4 mmHg; p = 0.003) and reduced peak systolic torsion velocity (138.7 ± 37.6/s to 121.3 ± 32/s; p = 0.032). pT decreased in 3 and increased in 8 patients after fluid loading. Patients whose pT increased had higher early mitral inflow velocity postoperatively (p = 0.04) than those with decreasing pT. Patients with reduced pT after fluid loading received more fluids (p = 0.04) and had a higher positive fluid balance during the intensive care unit stay (p = 0.03). Torsion after fluid loading correlated with total fluid input (p = 0.001) and cumulative fluid balance (p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS pT decreased early after aortic valve replacement but remained elevated despite elimination of aortic stenosis. After 2.5 years, torsion had returned to preoperative levels.

Completeness of Follow-Up Determines Validity of Study Findings: Results of a Prospective Repeated Measures Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND Current reporting guidelines do not call for standardised declaration of follow-up completeness, although study validity depends on the representativeness of measured outcomes. The Follow-Up Index (FUI) describes follow-up completeness at a given study end date as ratio between the investigated and the potential follow-up period. The association between FUI and the accuracy of survival-estimates was investigated. METHODS FUI and Kaplan-Meier estimates were calculated twice for 1207 consecutive patients undergoing aortic repair during an 11-year period: in a scenario A the population's clinical routine follow-up data (available from a prospective registry) was analysed conventionally. For the control scenario B, an independent survey was completed at the predefined study end. To determine the relation between FUI and the accuracy of study findings, discrepancies between scenarios regarding FUI, follow-up duration and cumulative survival-estimates were evaluated using multivariate analyses. RESULTS Scenario A noted 89 deaths (7.4%) during a mean considered follow-up of 30±28months. Scenario B, although analysing the same study period, detected 304 deaths (25.2%, P<0.001) as it scrutinized the complete follow-up period (49±32months). FUI (0.57±0.35 versus 1.00±0, P<0.001) and cumulative survival estimates (78.7% versus 50.7%, P<0.001) differed significantly between scenarios, suggesting that incomplete follow-up information led to underestimation of mortality. Degree of follow-up completeness (i.e. FUI-quartiles and FUI-intervals) correlated directly with accuracy of study findings: underestimation of long-term mortality increased almost linearly by 30% with every 0.1 drop in FUI (adjusted HR 1.30; 95%-CI 1.24;1.36, P<0.001). CONCLUSION Follow-up completeness is a pre-requisite for reliable outcome assessment and should be declared systematically. FUI represents a simple measure suited as reporting standard. Evidence lacking such information must be challenged as potentially flawed by selection bias.

Five-year follow-up after catheter ablation of persistent atrial fibrillation using the stepwise approach and prognostic factors for success

BACKGROUND In the meantime, catheter ablation is widely used for the treatment of persistent atrial fibrillation (AF). There is a paucity of data about long-term outcomes. This study evaluates (1) 5-year single and multiple procedure success and (2) prognostic factors for arrhythmia recurrences after catheter ablation of persistent AF using the stepwise approach aiming at AF termination. METHODS AND RESULTS A total of 549 patients with persistent AF underwent de novo catheter ablation using the stepwise approach (2007-2009). A total of 493 patients were included (Holter ECGs ≥ every 6 months). Mean follow-up was 59 ± 16 months with 2.1 ± 1.1 procedures per patient. Single and multiple procedure success rates were 20.1% and 55.9%, respectively (80% off antiarrhythmic drug). Antiarrhythmic drug-free multiple procedure success was 46%. Long-term recurrences (n=171) were paroxysmal AF in 48 patients (28%) and persistent AF/atrial tachycardia in 123 patients (72%). Multivariable recurrent event analysis revealed the following factors favoring arrhythmia recurrence: failure to terminate AF during index procedure (hazard ratio [HR], 1.279; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.093-1.497; P = 0.002), number of procedures (HR, 1.154; 95% CI, 1.051-1.267; P = 0.003), female sex (HR, 1.263; 95% CI, 1.027-1.553; P = 0.027), and the presence of structural heart disease (HR, 1.236; 95% CI, 1.003-1.524; P = 0.047). AF termination was correlated with a higher rate of consecutive procedures because of atrial tachycardia recurrences (P = 0.003; HR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.20-2.43). CONCLUSIONS Catheter ablation of persistent AF using the stepwise approach provides limited long-term freedom of arrhythmias often requiring multiple procedures. AF termination, the number of procedures, sex, and the presence of structural heart disease correlate with outcome success. AF termination is associated with consecutive atrial tachycardia procedures.

First generation versus second generation drug-eluting stents for the treatment of bifurcations: 5-year follow-up of the LEADERS all-comers randomized trial.

BACKGROUND Historically, percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) of bifurcation lesions was associated with worse procedural and clinical outcomes when compared with PCI of non-bifurcation lesions. Newer generation drug-eluting stents (DES) might improve long-term clinical outcomes after bifurcation PCI. METHODS AND RESULTS The LEADERS trial was a 10-center, assessor-blind, non-inferiority, all-comers trial, randomizing 1,707 patients to treatment with a biolimus A9(TM) -eluting stent (BES) with an abluminal biodegradable polymer or a sirolimus-eluting stent (SES) with a durable polymer (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00389220). Five-year clinical outcomes were compared between patients with and without bifurcation lesions and between BES and SES in the bifurcation lesion subgroup. There were 497 (29%) patients with at least 1 bifurcation lesion (BES = 258; SES = 239). At 5-year follow-up, the composite endpoint of cardiac death, myocardial infarction (MI) and clinically-indicated (CI) target vessel revascularization (TVR) was observed more frequently in the bifurcation group (26.6% vs. 22.4%, P = 0.049). Within the bifurcation lesion subgroup, no differences were observed in (cardiac) death or MI rates between BES and SES. However, CI target lesion revascularization (TLR) (10.1% vs. 15.9%, P = 0.0495), and CI TVR (12.0% vs. 19.2%, P = 0.023) rates were significantly lower in the BES group. Definite/probable stent thrombosis (ST) rate was numerically lower in the BES group (3.1% vs. 5.9%, P = 0.15). Very late (>1 year) definite/probable ST rates trended to be lower with BES (0.4% vs. 3.1%, P = 0.057). CONCLUSIONS In the treatment of bifurcation lesions, use of BES led to superior long-term efficacy compared with SES. Safety outcomes were comparable between BES and SES, with an observed trend toward a lower rate of very late definite/probable ST between 1 and 5 years with the BES. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prognostic markers in lentigo maligna patients treated with imiquimod cream: A long-term follow-up study.

BACKGROUND More data are needed to define factors that predict long-term success after imiquimod therapy for lentigo maligna (LM). OBJECTIVE We sought to determine the demographic, clinical, and histologic prognostic markers of relapse-free survival in patients with LM who were treated with imiquimod. METHODS This was a single-arm, open-label, nonrandomized, prospective study. RESULTS Eighty-nine patients with histologically confirmed LM and a median follow-up time of 4.8 years after imiquimod treatment were included in our study. Sixteen patients (18%) relapsed. Statistically significant indicators of an increased risk of local recurrence included: the total number of melanocytes, the number of basal and suprabasal melanocytes and the number of pagetoid spreading melanocytes. LIMITATIONS Our study was a single-center, nonrandomized study. CONCLUSION An assessment of different melanocyte fractions in the diagnostic baseline biopsy specimen may help to predict the response of LM to imiquimod therapy.

A follow-up on Acute Pain Services in Germany compared to international survey data.

BACKGROUND After the introduction of instruments for benchmarking, certification and a national guideline for acute pain management, the aim of this study was to describe the current structure, processes and quality of German acute pain services (APS). METHODS All directors of German departments of anaesthesiology were invited to complete a postal questionnaire on structures und processes of acute pain management. The survey asked for staff, techniques and quality criteria, which enabled a comparison to previous data from 1999 and surveys from other countries. RESULTS Four hundred and eight (46%) questionnaires were returned. APS have increased considerably and are now available in 81% of the hospitals, mainly anaesthesia based. However, only 45% fulfilled the minimum quality criteria, such as the assignment of personnel, the organization of patient care during nights and weekends, written protocols for postoperative pain management, regular assessments and documenting pain scores. Staff resources varied considerably, but increased compared to 1999. Two daily rounds were performed in 71%, either by physicians and nurses (42%), by physicians only (25%) or by supervised nurses (31%). Most personnel assigned to the APS shared this work along with other duties. Only 53% of the hospitals had an integrated rotation for training their specialty trainees. CONCLUSIONS The availability of APS in Germany and other countries has increased over the last decade; however, the quality of nearly half of the APS is questionable. Against the disillusioning background of recently reported unfavourable pain-related patient outcomes, the structures, organization and quality of APS should be revisited.

Reversal of cardiomyopathy in propionic acidemia after liver transplantation: a 10-year follow-up

Cardiomyopathy is a frequent complication in propionic acidemia. It is mostly rapidly fatal and independent of the metabolic control or medical intervention. Here, we present the reversal of a severe cardiomyopathy after liver transplantation in a patient with propionic acidemia and the long-term stability after ten years. Liver transplantation in patients with propionic acidemia may be considered a valid and long-lasting treatment when cardiomyopathy is progressive and unresponsive to medical therapy.

Progression of cardiovascular risk factors in black Africans: 3 year follow up of the SABPA cohort study

Recent work identified a high prevalence of modifiable risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) among urban black South Africans. The aim was to track the progression of CVD risk factors in a multi-ethnic sample of South Africans. Participants were 173 black (aged 47.5 ± 7.8 yrs) and 186 white teachers (aged 49.6 ± 9.9 yrs) that were examined at baseline and 3 years follow-up. Blacks demonstrated a substantially higher prevalence of composite CVD burden (defined as history of physician diagnosed heart disease, use of anti-hypertensives, anti-diabetic, or statin medications at either time point) compared to whites (49.1 vs. 32.0%, p = 0.012) respectively. After controlling for baseline, the black participants demonstrated greater increases in 24 h systolic and diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, fasting glucose, fibrinogen, D-dimer, and waist circumference in comparison with whites. In summary, an adverse progression of CVD risk factors was observed in the whole sample, although to a larger degree in black participants. Aggressive treatment strategies for controlling risk factors in black Africans are needed to reduce the increasing burden of CVD in South Africa.

Whole-exome sequencing reveals a C-terminal germline variant in CEBPA-associated acute myeloid leukemia: 45-year follow-up of a large family.

Familial acute myeloid leukemia is rare and linked to germline mutations in RUNX1, GATA2 or CCAAT/enhancer binding protein-α (CEBPA). We re-evaluated a large family with acute myeloid leukemia originally seen at NIH in 1969. We utilized whole-exome sequencing to study this family, and conducted in silico bioinformatics analysis, protein structural modeling and laboratory experiments to assess the impact of the identified CEBPA Q311P mutation. Unlike most previously identified germline mutations in CEBPA, which were N-terminal frameshift mutations, we identified a novel Q311P variant that was located in the C-terminal bZip domain of C/EBPα. Protein structural modeling suggested that the Q311P mutation alters the ability of the CEBPA dimer to bind DNA. Electrophoretic mobility shift assays showed that the Q311P mutant had attenuated binding to DNA, as predicted by the protein modeling. Consistent with these findings, we found that the Q311P mutation has reduced transactivation, consistent with a loss-of-function mutation. From 45 years of follow-up, we observed incomplete penetrance (46%) of CEBPA Q311P. This study of a large multi-generational pedigree reveals that a germline mutation in the C-terminal bZip domain can alter the ability of C/EBP-α to bind DNA and reduces transactivation, leading to acute myeloid leukemia.

Assessment of the nonoperated root after apical surgery of the other root in mandibular molars: a 5-year follow-up study

INTRODUCTION If a surgical approach is chosen to treat a multirooted tooth affected by persistent periapical pathosis, usually only the affected roots are operated on. The present study assessed the periapical status of the nonoperated root 5 years after apical surgery of the other root in mandibular molars. METHODS Patients treated with apical surgery of mandibular molars with a follow-up of 5 years were selected. Patient-related and clinical parameters (sex, age, smoking, symptoms, and signs of infection) before surgery were recorded. Preoperative intraoral periapical radiographs and radiographs 5 years after surgery were examined. The following data were collected: tooth, operated root, type and quality of the coronal restoration, marginal bone level, length and homogeneity of the root canal filling, presence of a post/screw, periapical index (PAI) of each root, and radiographic healing of the operated root. The presence of apical pathosis of the nonoperated root was analyzed statistically in relation to the recorded variables. RESULTS Thirty-seven patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Signs of periapical pathosis in the nonoperated root 5 years after surgery (PAI ≥ 3) could be observed in only 3 cases (8.1%). Therefore, statistical analysis in relation to the variables was not possible. The PAI of the nonoperated root before surgery had a weak correlation with signs of apical pathosis 5 years after surgery. CONCLUSIONS Nonoperated roots rarely developed signs of new apical pathosis 5 years after apical surgery of the other root in mandibular molars. It appears reasonable to resect and fill only roots with a radiographically evident periapical lesion.