Index-Oriented Methodologies for Landslide Consequence Analysis: An Application to a Mountain Community in the French Alps

Consequence analysis is a key aspect of anchoring assessment of landslide impacts to present and long-term development planning. Although several approaches have been developed over the last decade, some of them are difficult to apply in practice, mainly because of the lack of valuable data on historical damages or on damage functions. In this paper, two possible consequence indicators based on a combination of descriptors of the exposure of the elements at risk are proposed in order to map the potential impacts of landslides and highlight the most vulnerable areas. The first index maps the physical vulnerability due to landslide; the second index maps both direct damage (physical, structural, functional) and indirect damage (socio-economic impacts) of landslide hazards. The indexes have been computed for the 200 km2 area of the Barcelonnette Basin (South French Alps), and their potential applications are discussed.

Holocene climate, fire and vegetation dynamics at the treeline in the Northwestern Swiss Alps

Treelines are expected to rise to higher elevations with climate warming; the rate and extent however are still largely unknown. Here we present the first multi-proxy palaeoecological study from the treeline in the Northwestern Swiss Alps that covers the entire Holocene. We reconstructed climate, fire and vegetation dynamics at Iffigsee, an alpine lake at 2,065 m a.s.l., by using seismic sedimentary surveys, loss on ignition, visible spectrum reflectance spectroscopy, pollen, spore, macrofossil and charcoal analyses. Afforestation with Larix decidua and tree Betula (probably B. pendula) started at ~9,800 cal. b.p., more than 1,000 years later than at similar elevations in the Central and Southern Alps, indicating cooler temperatures and/or a high seasonality. Highest biomass production and forest position of ~2,100–2,300 m a.s.l. are inferred during the Holocene Thermal Maximum from 7,000 to 5,000 cal. b.p. With the onset of pastoralism and transhumance at 6,800–6,500 cal. b.p., human impact became an important factor in the vegetation dynamics at Iffigsee. This early evidence of pastoralism is documented by the presence of grazing indicators (pollen, spores), as well as a wealth of archaeological finds at the nearby mountain pass of Schnidejoch. Human and fire impact during the Neolithic and Bronze Ages led to the establishment of pastures and facilitated the expansion of Picea abies and Alnus viridis. We expect that in mountain areas with land abandonment, the treeline will react quickly to future climate warming by shifting to higher elevations, causing drastic changes in species distribution and composition as well as severe biodiversity losses.

The potential of stomata analysis in conifers to estimate presence of conifer trees: examples from the Alps

To estimate whether or not a plant taxon found in the fossil record was locally present may be difficult if only pollen is analyzed. Plant macrofossils, in contrast, provide a clear indication of a taxon's local presence, although in some lake sediments or peats, macrofossils may be rare or degraded. For conifers, the stomata found on pollen slides are derived from needles and thus provide a valuable proxy for local presence and they can be identified to genus level. From previously published studies, a transect across the Alps based on 13 sites is presented. For basal samples in sandy silt above the till with high pollen values of Pinus, for example, we may distinguish pine pollen from distant sources (samples with no stomata), from reworked pollen (samples with stomata present). The first apparent local presence of most conifer genera based on stomata often but not always occurs together with the phase of rapid pollen increase (rational limit). An exception is Larix, with its annual deposition of needles and heavy poorly dispersed pollen, for it often shows the first stomata earlier, at the empirical pollen limit. The decline and potential local extinction of a conifer can sometimes be shown in the stomata record. The decline may have been caused by climatic change, competition, or human impact. In situations where conifers form the timberline, the stomata record may indicate timberline fluctuations. In the discussion of immigration or migration of taxa we advocate the use of the cautious term ``apparent local presence'' to include some uncertainties. Absence of a taxon is impossible to prove.

A model-data comparison of Holocene timberline changes in the Swiss Alps reveals past and future drivers of mountain forest dynamics

Mountain vegetation is strongly affected by temperature and is expected to shift upwards with climate change. Dynamic vegetation models are often used to assess the impact of climate on vegetation and model output can be compared with paleobotanical data as a reality check. Recent paleoecological studies have revealed regional variation in the upward shift of timberlines in the Northern and Central European Alps in response to rapid warming at the Younger Dryas/Preboreal transition ca. 11700years ago, probably caused by a climatic gradient across the Alps. This contrasts with previous studies that successfully simulated the early Holocene afforestation in the (warmer) Central Alps with a chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction from the (colder) Northern Alps. We use LandClim, a dynamic landscape vegetation model to simulate mountain forests under different temperature, soil and precipitation scenarios around Iffigsee (2065m a.s.l.) a lake in the Northwestern Swiss Alps, and compare the model output with the paleobotanical records. The model clearly overestimates the upward shift of timberline in a climate scenario that applies chironomid-inferred July-temperature anomalies to all months. However, forest establishment at 9800 cal. BP at Iffigsee is successfully simulated with lower moisture availability and monthly temperatures corrected for stronger seasonality during the early Holocene. The model-data comparison reveals a contraction in the realized niche of Abies alba due to the prominent role of anthropogenic disturbance after ca. 5000 cal. BP, which has important implications for species distribution models (SDMs) that rely on equilibrium with climate and niche stability. Under future climate projections, LandClim indicates a rapid upward shift of mountain vegetation belts by ca. 500m and treeline positions of ca. 2500m a.s.l. by the end of this century. Resulting biodiversity losses in the alpine vegetation belt might be mitigated with low-impact pastoralism to preserve species-rich alpine meadows.

New results and new ice-borne finds from high-alpine passes in the Bernese Alps (Switzerland)

Archaeological finds from Schnidejoch (2756 m a.s.l.) and Lötschenpass (2690 m a.s.l.) cover the periods from the Early Neolithic to the Middle Ages (4800 BC - 1000 AD). The numerous finds from Schnidejoch discovered since 2003 can now be seen in relationship with Neolithic and Bronze Age settlements in the Rhone valley and together with the early use of alpine meadows and early transhumance. Finds of Early Bronze Age bows from Lötschenpass go back to the 1930ies. New finds of wooden objects and objects made from birch bark melted out from the ice in the summer of 2011. The lecture presents these new finds and an actualized view of Schnidejoch finds.

Retrospective analysis of a nonforecasted rain-on-snow flood in the Alps – a matter of model limitations or unpredictable nature?

A rain-on-snow flood occurred in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland, on 10 October 2011, and caused significant damage. As the flood peak was unpredicted by the flood forecast system, questions were raised concerning the causes and the predictability of the event. Here, we aimed to reconstruct the anatomy of this rain-on-snow flood in the Lötschen Valley (160 km2) by analyzing meteorological data from the synoptic to the local scale and by reproducing the flood peak with the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model). This in order to gain process understanding and to evaluate the predictability. The atmospheric drivers of this rain-on-snow flood were (i) sustained snowfall followed by (ii) the passage of an atmospheric river bringing warm and moist air towards the Alps. As a result, intensive rainfall (average of 100 mm day-1) was accompanied by a temperature increase that shifted the 0° line from 1500 to 3200 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) in 24 h with a maximum increase of 9 K in 9 h. The south-facing slope of the valley received significantly more precipitation than the north-facing slope, leading to flooding only in tributaries along the south-facing slope. We hypothesized that the reason for this very local rainfall distribution was a cavity circulation combined with a seeder-feeder-cloud system enhancing local rainfall and snowmelt along the south-facing slope. By applying and considerably recalibrating the standard hydrological model setup, we proved that both latent and sensible heat fluxes were needed to reconstruct the snow cover dynamic, and that locally high-precipitation sums (160 mm in 12 h) were required to produce the estimated flood peak. However, to reproduce the rapid runoff responses during the event, we conceptually represent likely lateral flow dynamics within the snow cover causing the model to react "oversensitively" to meltwater. Driving the optimized model with COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling)-2 forecast data, we still failed to simulate the flood because COSMO-2 forecast data underestimated both the local precipitation peak and the temperature increase. Thus we conclude that this rain-on-snow flood was, in general, predictable, but requires a special hydrological model setup and extensive and locally precise meteorological input data. Although, this data quality may not be achieved with forecast data, an additional model with a specific rain-on-snow configuration can provide useful information when rain-on-snow events are likely to occur.

Dating polygenetic metamorphic assemblages along a transect across the Western Alps

Multichronometric analyses were performed on samples from a transect in the French-Italian Western Alps crossing nappes derived from the Briançonnais terrane and the Piemonte-Liguria Ocean, in an endeavour to constrain the high-pressure (HP) metamorphism and the retrogression history. 12 samples of white mica were analysed by 39Ar-40Ar stepwise heating, complemented by 2 samples from the Monte Rosa 100 km to the NE and also attributed to the Briançonnais terrane. One Sm-Nd and three Lu-Hf garnet ages from eclogites were also obtained. White mica ages decrease from ca. 300 Ma in the westernmost samples (Zone Houillère), reaching ca. 300 °C during Alpine metamorphism, to < 48 Ma in the internal units to the East, which reached ca. 500 °C during Alpine orogeny. The conventional “thermochronological” interpretation postulates Cretaceous Eo-Alpine HP metamorphism and younger “cooling ages” in the higher-temperature samples. However, Eocene Lu-Hf and Sm-Nd ages from the same samples cannot be interpreted as post-metamorphic cooling ages, which makes a Cretaceous eclogitization untenable. The age date from this transect require instead to replace conventional “thermochronology” by an approach combining age dating with detailed geochemical, petrological and microstructural investigations. Petrology reveals important mineralogical differences along the transect. Samples from the Zone Houillère mostly contain detrital mica. White mica with Si > 6.45 atoms per formula unit becomes more abundant eastward. Across the whole traverse, HP phengitic mica forms the D1 foliation. Syn-D2 mica is Si-poorer and associated with nappe stacking, exhumation, and hydrous retrogression under greenschist facies conditions. D1 phengite is very often corroded, overgrown or intergrown by syn-D2 muscovite. Most importantly, syn-D2 recrystallization is not limited to S2 schistosity domains; microchemical fingerprinting shows that it also can form pseudomorphs after crystals that could be mistaken to have formed during D1 based on microstructural arguments alone. Thereby the Cl concentration in white mica is a useful discriminator, since D2 retrogression was associated with a less saline fluid than eclogitization. Once the petrological stage is set, geochronology is straightforward. All samples contain mixtures of detrital, syn-D1 and syn-D2 mica, and retrogression phases (D3) in greatly varying proportions according to local pressure-temperature-fluid activity-deformation conditions. The correlation of age vs. Cl/K clearly identifies 47 ± 1 Ma as the age of formation of syn-D1 mica along the entire transect, including the Monte Rosa nappe samples. The inferred age of the greenschist-facies low-Si syn-D2 mica generation ranges within 39-43 Ma, with local variations. Coexistence of D1 and D2 ages, and the constancy of non-reset D1 ages along the entire transect, are strong evidence that the D1 white mica ages are very close to formation ages. Volume diffusion of Ar in white mica (activation energy E = 250 kJ/mol; pressure-adjusted diffusion coefficient D’0 < 0.03 cm2 s-1) has a subordinate effect on mineral ages compared to both prograde and retrograde recrystallization in most samples. Eocene Lu-Hf and Sm-Nd garnet ages are prograde and predate the HP peak.

UNESCO World Heritage „Prehistoric pile-dwellings around the Alps“: Chances and Challenges for Management and Research of Cultural Heritage Under Water

Research in prehistoric sites of lakes and bogs around the Alps started more than 150 years ago. In 2004 Switzerland took the initiative to propose an international UNESCO world heritage nomination, which was successful in 2011. Six countries – Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Slovenia and Switzerland – joined forces to obtain the precious label for an invisible cultural heritage of outstanding universal value. Archaeological sites under water or in bogs are of special importance because objects made of organic material like wood, bark, plant fibres and others survive in this milieu for hundred or thousands of years. The alpine pile-dwelling sites offer a highly precise dating possibility by using dendrochronology. All in all these sites have a high scientific potential but run also risks of long term conservation. Beside the scientific chances there are risks to consider: public access is difficult and a major challenge. New ideas are demanded to keep alive public interest.

Ancient DNA, a Neolithic legging from the Swiss Alps and the early history of goat

Ancient DNA from a Neolithic legging (1st half of the 3rd millennium BC) found at Lenk, Schnidejoch (2750 m a.sl.) in the Swiss Alps has demonstrated, that modern distribution of genetic variation does not reflect past spatio-temporal signatures. The legging was made from the skin of a domestic goat (Capra hircus), belonging to the caprine haplogroup B1, which is marginal in Europe today, but represents a third highly diverse goat haplogroup entering Europe already in the Neolithic. Population expansion of lineage B therefore happened more than 4500 years ago, but their members were at some point almost completely replaced by goats of today's common A and C haplogroups.

Microstructural, chemical and isotopic evidence for the origin of late neolithic leather recovered from an ice field in the Swiss Alps

Archaeological leather samples recovered from the ice field at the Schnidejoch Pass (altitude 2756 m amsl) in the western Swiss Alps were studied using optical, chemical molecular and isotopic (δ13C and δ15N of the bulk leather, and compound-specific δ13C analyses of the organic-solvent extracted fatty acids) methods to obtain insight into the origin of the leather and ancient tanning procedures. For comparison, leathers from modern native animals in alpine environment (red deer, goat, sheep, chamois, and calf/cow) were analyzed using the same approach. Optical and electron microscopically comparisons of Schnidejoch and modern leathers showed that the gross structure (pattern of collagen fibrils and intra-fibrils material) of archaeological leather had survived essentially intact for five millennia. The SEM studies of the hairs from the most important archaeological find, a Neolithic leather legging, show a wave structure of the hair cuticle, which is a diagnostic feature for goatskins. The variations of the bulk δ13C and δ15N values, and δ13C values of the main fatty acids are within the range expected for pre-industrial temperate C3 environment. The archaeological leather samples contain a mixture of indigenous (from the animal) and exogenous plant/animal lipids. An important amount of waxy n-alkanes, n-alkan-1-ols and phytosterols (β-sitosterol, sitostanol) in all samples, and abundant biomarker of conifers (nonacosan-10-ol) in the legging leathers clearly indicate that the Neolithic people were active in a subalpine coniferous forest, and that they used an aqueous extract of diverse plant material for tanning leather.