Timing of progression from Chlamydia trachomatis infection to pelvic inflammatory disease: a mathematical modelling study

Background Pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) results from the ascending spread of microorganisms from the vagina and endocervix to the upper genital tract. PID can lead to infertility, ectopic pregnancy and chronic pelvic pain. The timing of development of PID after the sexually transmitted bacterial infection Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia) might affect the impact of screening interventions, but is currently unknown. This study investigates three hypothetical processes for the timing of progression: at the start, at the end, or throughout the duration of chlamydia infection. Methods We develop a compartmental model that describes the trial structure of a published randomised controlled trial (RCT) and allows each of the three processes to be examined using the same model structure. The RCT estimated the effect of a single chlamydia screening test on the cumulative incidence of PID up to one year later. The fraction of chlamydia infected women who progress to PID is obtained for each hypothetical process by the maximum likelihood method using the results of the RCT. Results The predicted cumulative incidence of PID cases from all causes after one year depends on the fraction of chlamydia infected women that progresses to PID and on the type of progression. Progression at a constant rate from a chlamydia infection to PID or at the end of the infection was compatible with the findings of the RCT. The corresponding estimated fraction of chlamydia infected women that develops PID is 10% (95% confidence interval 7-13%) in both processes. Conclusions The findings of this study suggest that clinical PID can occur throughout the course of a chlamydia infection, which will leave a window of opportunity for screening to prevent PID.

Describing the progression from Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae to pelvic inflammatory disease: systematic review of mathematical modeling studies

Chlamydia screening is recommended to prevent pelvic inflammatory disease (PID). A systematic review was conducted to determine how the natural history of Chlamydia trachomatis or Neisseria gonorrhoeae infection and progression to PID have been described in mathematical modeling studies.

Prospective study of fetal DNA in serum and disease activity during pregnancy in women with inflammatory arthritis

OBJECTIVE: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) usually improves during pregnancy and recurs postpartum. Fetal cells and cell-free DNA reach the maternal circulation during normal pregnancy. The present study investigated dynamic changes in levels of fetal DNA in serum from women with RA and inflammatory arthritis during and after pregnancy to test the hypothesis that the levels of circulating fetal DNA correlate with arthritis improvement. METHODS: Twenty-five pregnant patients were prospectively studied. A real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction panel targeting unshared, paternally transmitted HLA sequences, a Y chromosome-specific sequence, or an insertion sequence within the glutathione S-transferase M1 gene was used to measure cell-free fetal DNA. Results were expressed as fetal genomic equivalents per milliliter (gE/ml) of maternal serum. Physical examinations were conducted during and after pregnancy. RESULTS: Levels of fetal DNA in women with improvement in or remission of arthritis were higher than those in women with active disease, especially in the third trimester. Overall, an inverse relationship between serum fetal DNA levels and disease activity was observed (P < 0.001). Serum fetal DNA increased with advancing gestation, reaching median levels of 24 gE/ml (range 0-334), 61 gE/ml (range 0-689), and 199 gE/ml (range 0-2,576) in the first, second, and third trimesters, respectively, with fetal DNA clearance observed postpartum. Arthritis improvement was initially noted in the first trimester for most patients, increased further or was sustained with advancing gestation, and was active postpartum. CONCLUSION: Changes in serum fetal DNA levels correlated with arthritis improvement during pregnancy and recurrence postpartum. Immunologic mechanisms by which pregnancy might modulate RA activity are described.

Direct and indirect effects of screening for Chlamydia trachomatis on the prevention of pelvic inflammatory disease: a mathematical modeling study

BACKGROUND Pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) results from the ascending spread of microorganisms, including Chlamydia trachomatis, to the upper genital tract. Screening could improve outcomes by identifying and treating chlamydial infections before they progress to PID (direct effect) or by reducing chlamydia transmission (indirect effect). METHODS We developed a compartmental model that represents a hypothetical heterosexual population and explicitly incorporates progression from chlamydia to clinical PID. Chlamydia screening was introduced, with coverage increasing each year for 10 years. We estimated the separate contributions of the direct and indirect effects of screening on PID cases prevented per 100,000 women. We explored the influence of varying the time point at which clinical PID could occur and of increasing the risk of PID after repeated chlamydial infections. RESULTS The probability of PID at baseline was 3.1% by age 25 years. After 5 years, the intervention scenario had prevented 187 PID cases per 100,000 women and after 10 years 956 PID cases per 100,000 women. At the start of screening, most PID cases were prevented by the direct effect. The indirect effect produced a small net increase in PID cases, which was outweighed by the effect of reduced chlamydia transmission after 2.2 years. The later that progression to PID occurs, the greater the contribution of the direct effect. Increasing the risk of PID with repeated chlamydial infection increases the number of PID cases prevented by screening. CONCLUSIONS This study shows the separate roles of direct and indirect PID prevention and potential harms, which cannot be demonstrated in observational studies.

Inflammatory, immunological, and intestinal disease biomarkers in Chinese Shar-Pei dogs with marked hypocobalaminemia.

Chinese Shar-Pei dogs have a high prevalence of hypocobalaminemia and are commonly presented with clinical signs suggestive of severe and long-standing gastrointestinal disease such as diarrhea, vomiting, and/or weight loss. The aim of the current study was to evaluate serum concentrations of inflammatory markers, markers for intestinal disease, and immunological markers in Shar-Peis with hypocobalaminemia or normocobalaminemia (serum cobalamin concentrations within the reference interval). Serum samples from Shar-Peis were collected from various parts of the United States. Serum concentrations of inflammatory markers (i.e., C-reactive protein [CRP], calprotectin [CP], and S100A12), hyaluronic acid (HA, a marker for cutaneous mucinosis), and analytes commonly altered in chronic intestinal diseases (i.e., albumin, zinc, alpha1-proteinease inhibitor [α1PI], immunoglobulin [Ig]A, and IgM) were compared between Shar-Peis with hypocobalaminemia and Shar-Peis with normocobalaminemia. Serum concentrations of CRP, CP, S100A12, HA, zinc, and cα1-PI concentrations did not differ between hypocobalaminemic and normocobalaminemic Shar-Peis (P > 0.05). Serum concentrations of albumin were significantly lower in hypocobalaminemic Shar-Peis (median: 2.5 g/dl) than in normocobalaminemic Shar-Peis (median: 2.9 g/dl; P < 0.0001). Higher serum IgA concentrations and lower serum IgM concentrations were observed in hypocobalaminemic Shar-Peis (median: 1.7 g/l and 0.8 g/l, respectively) than in normocobalaminemic Shar-Peis (median: 0.7 g/l and 1.9 g/l, respectively; both P < 0.0001). In conclusion, no difference was found in serum concentrations of CRP, CP, S100A12, and HA between hypocobalaminemic and normocobalaminemic Shar-Peis whereas some differences were observed in analytes (e.g., albumin, IgA, and IgM) that may be altered in patients with chronic enteropathies.

Sample size considerations using mathematical models: an example with Chlamydia trachomatis infection and its sequelae pelvic inflammatory disease.

BACKGROUND The success of an intervention to prevent the complications of an infection is influenced by the natural history of the infection. Assumptions about the temporal relationship between infection and the development of sequelae can affect the predicted effect size of an intervention and the sample size calculation. This study investigates how a mathematical model can be used to inform sample size calculations for a randomised controlled trial (RCT) using the example of Chlamydia trachomatis infection and pelvic inflammatory disease (PID). METHODS We used a compartmental model to imitate the structure of a published RCT. We considered three different processes for the timing of PID development, in relation to the initial C. trachomatis infection: immediate, constant throughout, or at the end of the infectious period. For each process we assumed that, of all women infected, the same fraction would develop PID in the absence of an intervention. We examined two sets of assumptions used to calculate the sample size in a published RCT that investigated the effect of chlamydia screening on PID incidence. We also investigated the influence of the natural history parameters of chlamydia on the required sample size. RESULTS The assumed event rates and effect sizes used for the sample size calculation implicitly determined the temporal relationship between chlamydia infection and PID in the model. Even small changes in the assumed PID incidence and relative risk (RR) led to considerable differences in the hypothesised mechanism of PID development. The RR and the sample size needed per group also depend on the natural history parameters of chlamydia. CONCLUSIONS Mathematical modelling helps to understand the temporal relationship between an infection and its sequelae and can show how uncertainties about natural history parameters affect sample size calculations when planning a RCT.

Impact of the early use of immunomodulators or TNF antagonists on bowel damage and surgery in Crohn's disease.

BACKGROUND The impact of early treatment with immunomodulators (IM) and/or TNF antagonists on bowel damage in Crohn's disease (CD) patients is unknown. AIM To assess whether 'early treatment' with IM and/or TNF antagonists, defined as treatment within a 2-year period from the date of CD diagnosis, was associated with development of lesser number of disease complications when compared to 'late treatment', which was defined as treatment initiation after >2 years from the time of CD diagnosis. METHODS Data from the Swiss IBD Cohort Study were analysed. The following outcomes were assessed using Cox proportional hazard modelling: bowel strictures, perianal fistulas, internal fistulas, intestinal surgery, perianal surgery and any of the aforementioned complications. RESULTS The 'early treatment' group of 292 CD patients was compared to the 'late treatment' group of 248 CD patients. We found that 'early treatment' with IM or TNF antagonists alone was associated with reduced risk of bowel strictures [hazard ratio (HR) 0.496, P = 0.004 for IM; HR 0.276, P = 0.018 for TNF antagonists]. Furthermore, 'early treatment' with IM was associated with reduced risk of undergoing intestinal surgery (HR 0.322, P = 0.005), and perianal surgery (HR 0.361, P = 0.042), as well as developing any complication (HR 0.567, P = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS Treatment with immunomodulators or TNF antagonists within the first 2 years of CD diagnosis was associated with reduced risk of developing bowel strictures, when compared to initiating these drugs >2 years after diagnosis. Furthermore, early immunomodulators treatment was associated with reduced risk of intestinal surgery, perianal surgery and any complication.

Protective effect of a germline, IL-17-neutralizing antibody in murine models of autoimmune inflammatory disease.

Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) inhibiting cytokines have recently emerged as new drug modalities for the treatment of chronic inflammatory diseases. Interleukin-17 (IL-17) is a T-cell-derived central mediator of autoimmunity. Immunization with Qβ-IL-17, a virus-like particle based vaccine, has been shown to produce autoantibodies in mice and was effective in ameliorating disease symptoms in animal models of autoimmunity. To characterize autoantibodies induced by vaccination at the molecular level, we generated mouse mAbs specific for IL-17 and compared them to germline Ig sequences. The variable regions of a selected hypermutated high-affinity anti-IL-17 antibody differed in only three amino acid residues compared to the likely germline progenitor. An antibody, which was backmutated to germline, maintained a surprisingly high affinity (0.5 nM). The ability of the parental hypermutated antibody and the derived germline antibody to block inflammation was subsequently tested in murine models of multiple sclerosis (experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis), arthritis (collagen-induced arthritis), and psoriasis (imiquimod-induced skin inflammation). Both antibodies were able to delay disease onset and significantly reduced disease severity. Thus, the mouse genome unexpectedly encodes for antibodies with the ability to functionally neutralize IL-17 in vivo.

Anti-inflammatory and immunosuppressive effects of the enaminone E121

Asthma is a chronic inflammatory disease of the airways. The treatment of asthma is far from optimal and hence the need for novel therapeutic agents exists. The purpose of this study was to assess the anti-asthma effects of an enaminone, E121, and also its effects on human peripheral blood mononuclear cell proliferation and cytokine release. The effects of E121 were assessed in an ovalbumin-induced model of airway inflammation and airway hyperresponsiveness. In addition, the effects of E121 on phytohemagglutinin (PHA), anti-CD3 monoclonal antibody and lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced human peripheral blood mononuclear cell proliferation and cytokine release, respectively, were assessed. Treatment of mice with E121 significantly decreased the ovalbumin-induced increase in airway total cell influx and eosinophil infiltration and this was associated with an inhibition of ovalbumin-induced airway hyperresponsiveness. Moreover, E121 reduced PHA and anti-CD3-induced human peripheral blood mononuclear cell proliferation in vitro. E121 also inhibited PHA, anti-CD3 monoclonal antibody and LPS-induced cytokine release from human peripheral blood mononuclear cell cultures. These findings indicate that E121 exhibits anti-inflammatory and immunosuppressive activities.

Toward cell therapy using placenta-derived cells: disease mechanisms, cell biology, preclinical studies, and regulatory aspects at the round table

Among the many cell types that may prove useful to regenerative medicine, mounting evidence suggests that human term placenta-derived cells will join the list of significant contributors. In making new cell therapy-based strategies a clinical reality, it is fundamental that no a priori claims are made regarding which cell source is preferable for a particular therapeutic application. Rather, ongoing comparisons of the potentiality and characteristics of cells from different sources should be made to promote constant improvement in cell therapies, and such comparisons will likely show that individually tailored cells can address disease-specific clinical needs. The principle underlying such an approach is resistance to the notion that comprehensive characterization of any cell type has been achieved, neither in terms of phenotype nor risks-to-benefits ratio. Tailoring cell therapy approaches to specific conditions also requires an understanding of basic disease mechanisms and close collaboration between translational researchers and clinicians, to identify current needs and shortcomings in existing treatments. To this end, the international workshop entitled "Placenta-derived stem cells for treatment of inflammatory diseases: moving toward clinical application" was held in Brescia, Italy, in March 2009, and aimed to harness an understanding of basic inflammatory mechanisms inherent in human diseases with updated findings regarding biological and therapeutic properties of human placenta-derived cells, with particular emphasis on their potential for treating inflammatory diseases. Finally, steps required to allow their future clinical application according to regulatory aspects including good manufacturing practice (GMP) were also considered. In September 2009, the International Placenta Stem Cell Society (IPLASS) was founded to help strengthen the research network in this field.

Heart rate variability and biomarkers of systemic inflammation in patients with stable coronary heart disease: findings from the Heart and Soul Study

Chronic low-grade systemic inflammation is a key component in atherogenesis. Decreased heart rate variability (HRV), a strong predictor of cardiovascular events, has been associated with elevations in circulating levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin (IL)-6, and fibrinogen in apparently healthy individuals. We investigated whether decreased HRV is associated with inflammatory markers in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD).

All cause and disease specific mortality in patients with knee or hip osteoarthritis: population based cohort study

Objective To examine all cause and disease specific mortality in patients with osteoarthritis of the knee or hip. Design Population based cohort study. Setting General practices in the southwest of England. Participants 1163 patients aged 35 years or over with symptoms and radiological confirmation of osteoarthritis of the knee or hip. Main outcome measures Age and sex standardised mortality ratios and multivariable hazard ratios of death after a median of 14 years’ follow-up. Results Patients with osteoarthritis had excess all cause mortality compared with the general population (standardised mortality ratio 1.55, 95% confidence interval 1.41 to 1.70). Excess mortality was observed for all disease specific causes of death but was particularly pronounced for cardiovascular (standardised mortality ratio 1.71, 1.49 to 1.98) and dementia associated mortality (1.99, 1.22 to 3.25). Mortality increased with increasing age (P for trend <0.001), male sex (adjusted hazard ratio 1.59, 1.30 to 1.96), self reported history of diabetes (1.95, 1.31 to 2.90), cancer (2.28, 1.50 to 3.47), cardiovascular disease (1.38, 1.12 to 1.71), and walking disability (1.48, 1.17 to 1.86). However, little evidence existed for increased mortality associated with previous joint replacement, obesity, depression, chronic inflammatory disease, eye disease, or presence of pain at baseline. The more severe the walking disability, the higher was the risk of death (P for trend <0.001). Conclusion Patients with osteoarthritis are at higher risk of death compared with the general population. History of diabetes, cancer, or cardiovascular disease and the presence of walking disability are major risk factors. Management of patients with osteoarthritis and walking disability should focus on effective treatment of cardiovascular risk factors and comorbidities, as well as on increasing physical activity.

Saliva/pathogen biomarker signatures and periodontal disease progression

The purpose of this study was to determine the role of saliva-derived biomarkers and periodontal pathogens during periodontal disease progression (PDP). One hundred human participants were recruited into a 12-month investigation. They were seen bi-monthly for saliva and clinical measures and bi-annually for subtraction radiography, serum and plaque biofilm assessments. Saliva and serum were analyzed with protein arrays for 14 pro-inflammatory and bone turnover markers, while qPCR was used for detection of biofilm. A hierarchical clustering algorithm was used to group study participants based on clinical, microbiological, salivary/serum biomarkers, and PDP. Eighty-three individuals completed the six-month monitoring phase, with 39 [corrected] exhibiting PDP, while 44 [corrected] demonstrated stability. Participants assembled into three clusters based on periodontal pathogens, serum and salivary biomarkers. Cluster 1 members displayed high salivary biomarkers and biofilm; 71% [corrected] of these individuals were undergoing PDP. Cluster 2 members displayed low biofilm and biomarker levels; 76% [corrected] of these individuals were stable. Cluster 3 members were not discriminated by PDP status; however, cluster stratification followed groups 1 and 2 based on thresholds of salivary biomarkers and biofilm pathogens. The association of cluster membership to PDP was highly significant (p < 0.0007). [corrected] The use of salivary and biofilm biomarkers offers potential for the identification of PDP or stability (ClinicalTrials.gov number, CT00277745).