Dynamics of a local Alpine flooding event in October 2011: moisture source and large-scale circulation

Alpine heavy precipitation events often affect small catchments, although the circulation pattern leading to the event extends over the entire North Atlantic. The various scale interactions involved are particularly challenging for the numerical weather prediction of such events. Unlike previous studies focusing on the southern Alps, here a comprehensive study of a heavy precipitation event in the northern Alps in October 2011 is presented with particular focus on the role of the large-scale circulation in the North Atlantic/European region. During the event exceptionally high amounts of total precipitable water occurred in and north of the Alps. This moisture was initially transported along the flanks of a blocking ridge over the North Atlantic. Subsequently, strong and persistent northerly flow established at the upstream flank of a trough over Europe and steered the moisture towards the northern Alps. Lagrangian diagnostics reveal that a large fraction of the moisture emerged from the West African coast where a subtropical upper-level cut-off low served as an important moisture collector. Wave activity flux diagnostics show that the ridge was initiated as part of a low-frequency, large-scale Rossby wave train while convergence of fast transients helped to amplify it locally in the North Atlantic. A novel diagnostic for advective potential vorticity tendencies sheds more light on this amplification and further emphasizes the role of the ridge in amplifying the trough over Europe. Operational forecasts misrepresented the amplitude and orientation of this trough. For the first time, this study documents an important pathway for northern Alpine flooding, in which the interaction of synoptic-scale to large-scale weather systems and of long-range moisture transport from the Tropics are dominant. Moreover, the trapping of moisture in a subtropical cut-off near the West African coast is found to be a crucial precursor to the observed European high-impact weather.

Motivational profiles of sport event volunteers.

Aim of the study Due to the valuable contribution made by volunteers to sporting events, a better understanding of volunteers’ motivation is imperative for event managers in order to develop effective volunteer re-cruitment and retention strategies. The adoption of working conditions and task domains to the mo-tives and needs of volunteers is one of the key challenges in volunteer management. Conversely, an ignorance of the motives and needs of volunteers could negatively affect their performance and attitude, which will have negative consequences for the execution of events (Strigas & Jackson, 2003). In general, the motives of volunteers are located on a continuum between selflessness (e.g. helping others), and self-interest (e.g. pursuing one’s own interests). Furthermore, it should take into account that volunteers may be motivated by more than one need or goal, and therefore, configure different bundles of motives, resulting in heterogeneous types of motives for voluntary engagement (Dolnicar & Randle, 2007). Despite the extensive number of studies on the motives of sport event volunteers, only few studies focus on the analysis of individual motive profiles concerning volun-teering. Accordingly, we will take a closer look at the following questions: To what extent do volun-teers at sporting events differ in the motives of their engagement, and how can the volunteers be ade-quately classified? Theoretical Background According to the functional approach, relevant subjective motives are related to the outcomes and consequences that volunteering is supposed to lead to and to produce. This means, individuals’ mo-tives determine which incentives are anticipated in return for volunteering (e.g. increase in social contacts), and are important for engaging in volunteering, e.g. the choice between different oppor-tunities for voluntary activity, or different tasks (Stukas et al., 2009). Additionally, inter-individual differences of motive structures as well as matching motives in the reflections of voluntary activities will be considered by using a person-oriented approach. In the person-oriented approach, it is not the specific variables that are made the entities of investigation, but rather persons with a certain combination of characteristic features (Bergmann et al., 2003). Person-orientation in the field of sports event volunteers, it is therefore essential to implement an orientation towards people as a unit of analysis. Accordingly, individual motive profiles become the object of investigation. The individ-ual motive profiles permit a glimpse of intra-individual differences in the evaluation of different motive areas, and thus represent the real subjective perspective. Hence, a person will compare the importance of individual motives for his behaviour primarily in relation to other motives (e.g. social contacts are more important to me than material incentives), and make fewer comparisons with the assessments of other people. Methodology, research design and data analysis The motives of sports event volunteers were analysed in the context of the European Athletics Championships 2014 in Zürich. After data cleaning, the study sample contained a total of 1,169 volunteers, surveyed by an online questionnaire. The VMS-ISA scale developed by Bang and Chel-ladurai (2009) was used and replicated successfully by a confirmatory factor analysis. Accordingly, all seven factors of the scale were included in the subsequent cluster analysis to determine typical motive profiles of volunteers. Before proceeding with the cluster analysis, an intra-individual stand-ardization procedure (according to Spiel, 1998) was applied to take advantage of the intra-individual relationships between the motives of the volunteers. Intra-individual standardization means that every value of each motive dimension was related to the average individual level of ex-pectations. In the final step, motive profiles were determined using a hierarchic cluster analysis based on Ward’s method with squared Euclidean distances. Results, discussion and implications The results reveal that motivational processes differ among sports event volunteers, and that volunteers sometimes combine contradictory bundles of motives. In our study, four different volunteer motive profiles were identified and described by their positive levels on the individual motive dimension: the community supporters, the material incentive seekers, the social networkers, and the career and personal growth pursuers. To describe the four identified motive profiles in more detail and to externally validate them, the clusters were analysed in relation to socio-economic, sport-related, and voluntary work characteristics. This motive-based typology of sports event volunteers can provide valuable guidance for event managers in order to create distinctive and designable working conditions and tasks at sporting events that should, in relation to a person-oriented approach, be tailored to a wide range of individ-ual prerequisites. Furthermore, specific recruitment procedures and appropriate communication measures can be defined in order to approach certain groups of potential volunteers more effectively. References Bang, H., & Chelladurai, P. (2009). Development and validation of the volunteer motivations scale for international sporting events (VMS-ISE). International Journal Sport Management and Market-ing, 6, 332-350. Bergmann, L. R., Magnusson, D., & El-Khouri, B. M. (2003). Studying individual development in an interindividual context. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum. Dolnicar, S., & Randle, M. (2007). What motivates which volunteers? Psychographic heterogeneity among volunteers in Australia. Voluntas, 18, 135-155. Spiel, C. (1998). Four methodological approaches to the study of stability and change in develop-ment. Methods of Psychological Research Online, 3, 8-22. Stukas, A. A., Worth, K. A., Clary, E. G., & Snyder, M. (2009). The matching of motivations to affordances in the volunteer environment: an index for assessing the impact of multiple matches on volunteer outcomes. Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly, 38, 5-28.

Denying the foreseeability of an event as a means of self-protection. The Impact of Self-Threatening Outcome Information on the Strength of the Hindsight Bias

The hindsight bias represents the tendency of people to falsely believe that they would have predicted the outcome of an event, once the outcome is known. Two experiments will be presented that show a reduction or even reversal of the hindsight bias when the outcome information is self-threatening for the participants. Participants read a report of an interaction between a man and a woman that ended with different outcomes: The woman was raped vs. the woman was not raped vs. no outcome information was given. Results of the first experiment indicated that especially female participants, who did not accept rape myths, showed a reversed hindsight bias, when they received the rape outcome information. The more threatening the rape outcome had been, the lower was their estimated likelihood of rape. Results of the second experiment confirmed those of the first. Female participants, who did not accept rape myths and perceived themselves highly similar to the victim, showed a strong reversed hindsight bias, when threatened by the rape outcome, whereas female participants, who did believe in rape myth and were not similar to the victim, showed a classical hindsight bias. These effects were interpreted in terms of self-serving or in-group serving functions of the hindsight bias: Participants deny the foreseeability of a self-threatening outcome as a means of self-protection even if they are not personally affected by the negative information, but a member of their group.

Circulating tumor cells as trigger to hematogenous spreads and potential biomarkers to predict the prognosis in ovarian cancer.

Despite several improvements in the surgical field and in the systemic treatment, ovarian cancer (OC) is still characterized by high recurrence rates and consequently poor survival. In OC, there is still a great lack of knowledge with regard to cancer behavior and mechanisms of recurrence, progression, and drug resistance. The OC metastatization process mostly occurs via intracoelomatic spread. Recent evidences show that tumor cells generate a favorable microenvironment consisting in T regulatory cells, T infiltrating lymphocytes, and cytokines which are able to establish an "immuno-tolerance mileau" in which a tumor cell can become a resistant clone. When the disease responds to treatment, immunoediting processes and cancer progression have been stopped. A similar inhibition of the immunosuppressive microenvironment has been observed after optimal cytoreductive surgery as well. In this scenario, the early identification of circulating tumor cells could represent a precocious signal of loss of the immune balance that precedes cancer immunoediting and relapse. Supporting this hypothesis, circulating tumor cells have been demonstrated to be a prognostic factor in several solid tumors such as colorectal, pancreatic, gastric, breast, and genitourinary cancer. In OC, the role of circulating tumor cells is still to be defined. However, as opposed to healthy women, circulating tumor cells have been demonstrated in peripheral blood of OC patients, opening a new research field in OC diagnosis, treatment monitoring, and follow-up.

Reduced foveal vision enhances peripheral monitoring and peripheral event detection

Introduction: Although it seems plausible that sports performance relies on high-acuity foveal vision, it could be empirically shown that myoptic blur (up to +2 diopters) does not harm performance in sport tasks that require foveal information pick-up like golf putting (Bulson, Ciuffreda, & Hung, 2008). How myoptic blur affects peripheral performance is yet unknown. Attention might be less needed for processing visual cues foveally and lead to better performance because peripheral cues are better processed as a function of reduced foveal vision, which will be tested in the current experiment. Methods: 18 sport science students with self-reported myopia volunteered as participants, all of them regularly wearing contact lenses. Exclusion criteria comprised visual correction other than myopic, correction of astigmatism and use of contact lenses out of Swiss delivery area. For each of the participants, three pairs of additional contact lenses (besides their regular lenses; used in the “plano” condition) were manufactured with an individual overcorrection to a retinal defocus of +1 to +3 diopters (referred to as “+1.00 D”, “+2.00 D”, and “+3.00 D” condition, respectively). Gaze data were acquired while participants had to perform a multiple object tracking (MOT) task that required to track 4 out of 10 moving stimuli. In addition, in 66.7 % of all trials, one of the 4 targets suddenly stopped during the motion phase for a period of 0.5 s. Stimuli moved in front of a picture of a sports hall to allow for foveal processing. Due to the directional hypotheses, the level of significance for one-tailed tests on differences was set at α = .05 and posteriori effect sizes were computed as partial eta squares (ηρ2). Results: Due to problems with the gaze-data collection, 3 participants had to be excluded from further analyses. The expectation of a centroid strategy was confirmed because gaze was closer to the centroid than the target (all p < .01). In comparison to the plano baseline, participants more often recalled all 4 targets under defocus conditions, F(1,14) = 26.13, p < .01, ηρ2 = .65. The three defocus conditions differed significantly, F(2,28) = 2.56, p = .05, ηρ2 = .16, with a higher accuracy as a function of a defocus increase and significant contrasts between conditions +1.00 D and +2.00 D (p = .03) and +1.00 D and +3.00 D (p = .03). For stop trials, significant differences could neither be found between plano baseline and defocus conditions, F(1,14) = .19, p = .67, ηρ2 = .01, nor between the three defocus conditions, F(2,28) = 1.09, p = .18, ηρ2 = .07. Participants reacted faster in “4 correct+button” trials under defocus than under plano-baseline conditions, F(1,14) = 10.77, p < .01, ηρ2 = .44. The defocus conditions differed significantly, F(2,28) = 6.16, p < .01, ηρ2 = .31, with shorter response times as a function of a defocus increase and significant contrasts between +1.00 D and +2.00 D (p = .01) and +1.00 D and +3.00 D (p < .01). Discussion: The results show that gaze behaviour in MOT is not affected to a relevant degree by a visual overcorrection up to +3 diopters. Hence, it can be taken for granted that peripheral event detection was investigated in the present study. This overcorrection, however, does not harm the capability to peripherally track objects. Moreover, if an event has to be detected peripherally, neither response accuracy nor response time is negatively affected. Findings could claim considerable relevance for all sport situations in which peripheral vision is required which now needs applied studies on this topic. References: Bulson, R. C., Ciuffreda, K. J., & Hung, G. K. (2008). The effect of retinal defocus on golf putting. Ophthalmic and Physiological Optics, 28, 334-344.

Motivational profiles of sporting event volunteers

This article presents an approach for segmenting sporting event volunteers according to differences in their motives. Empirical data were obtained from a sample of 1169 volunteers who registered for the 2014 European Athletics Championships in Zürich. They completed the ‘Volunteer Motivation Scale for International Sporting Events’ (VMS-ISE) questionaire. The validity of the VMS-ISE was replicated by confirmatory factor analysis and the data were cluster analysed to identify distinct motivation-based volunteer profiles. These segmented volunteers on the basis of mutually exclusive motivational characteristics. The external validity of the four motivation-based types (‘community supporters’, ‘material incentive seekers’, ‘social networkers’ and ‘career and personal growth orienteers’) was confirmed with socio-economic, sport-related and volunteer activity-related variables. It is concluded that motivation-based segmentation represents a useful way of gaining a clearer understanding of the patterns underlying the heterogeneity of sporting events volunteers.

Clinical and Breed Characteristics of Idiopathic Head Tremor Syndrome in 291 Dogs: A Retrospective Study.

Objective. To establish signalment and phenomenology of canine idiopathic head tremor syndrome (IHTS), an episodic head movement disorder of undetermined pathogenesis. Design. Retrospective case series. Animals. 291 dogs with IHTS diagnosed between 1999 and 2013. Procedures. Clinical information was obtained from an online community of veterinary information aggregation and exchange (Veterinary Information Network, 777 W Covell Boulevard, Davis, CA 95616) and conducted with their approval. Information on breed, sex, age of onset, tremor description, mentation during the event, effect of distractions and drugs, diagnostics, presence of other problems, and outcome was analyzed. Results. IHTS was found in 24 pure breeds. Bulldogs, Labrador Retrievers, Boxers, and Doberman Pinschers comprised 69%; mixed breeds comprised 17%. Average onset age was 29 months (range: 3 months to 12 years). First episode occurred before 48 months of age in 88%. Vertical (35%), horizontal (50%), and rotational (15%) movements were documented. Possible trigger events were found in 21%. Mentation was normal in 93%. Distractions abated the tremor in 87%. Most dogs did not respond to antiepileptic drugs. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance. This retrospective study documents IHTS in many breeds including Labrador Retrievers, Boxers, and mixed breeds.

Sediment mobilization deposits from episodic subsurface fluid flow—A new tool to reveal long-term earthquake records?

Subsurface fluid flow can be affected by earthquakes; increased spring activity, mud vol- cano eruptions, groundwater fluctuations, changes in geyser frequency, and other forms of altered subsurface fluid flow have been documented during, after, or even prior to seismic shaking. Recently discovered giant pockmarks on the bottom of Lake Neuchâtel, Switzerland, are the lake-floor expression of subsurface fluid flow. They discharge groundwater from the Jura Mountains karstic aquifers and experience episodically increased subsurface fluid flow documented by subsurface sediment mobilization deposits at the levees of the pockmarks. In this study, we present the spatio-temporal distribution of event deposits from these phases of sediment expulsion and of multiple time-correlative mass-transport deposits. We report five striking instances of concurrent multiple subsurface sediment deposits and multiple mass- transport deposits since late glacial times, for which we propose past earthquakes as a trigger. Comparison of this new event catalogue with historic earthquakes and other independent paleoseismic records suggests that initiation of sediment expulsion requires a minimum mac- roseismic intensity of VII. Thus, our study presents for the first time sedimentary deposits resulting from increased subsurface fluid flow as a paleoseismic proxy.

Search for Event Rate Modulation in XENON100 Electronic Recoil Data

We have searched for periodic variations of the electronic recoil event rate in the (2-6) keV energy range recorded between February 2011 and March 2012 with the XENON100 detector, adding up to 224.6 live days in total. Following a detailed study to establish the stability of the detector and its background contributions during this run, we performed an un-binned profile likelihood analysis to identify any periodicity up to 500 days. We find a global significance of less than 1 sigma for all periods suggesting no statistically significant modulation in the data. While the local significance for an annual modulation is 2.8 sigma, the analysis of a multiple-scatter control sample and the phase of the modulation disfavor a dark matter interpretation. The DAMA/LIBRA annual modulation interpreted as a dark matter signature with axial-vector coupling of WIMPs to electrons is excluded at 4.8 sigma.