Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by process-based modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under http://www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws. We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10 m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25 m resolution.

An Optical Survey for Space Debris on Highly Eccentric MEO Orbits

Optical surveys for space debris in high-altitude orbits have been conducted since more than ten years. Originally these efforts concentrated mainly on the geostationary ring (GEO). Corresponding observation strategies, processing techniques and cataloguing approaches have been developed and successfully applied. The ESA GEO surveys, e.g., resulted in the detection of a significant population of small-size debris and later in the discovery of high area-to-mass ratio objects in GEO-like orbits. The observation scenarios were successively adapted to survey the geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) region; and recently surveys to search for debris in the medium Earth orbit (MEO) region of the global navigation satellite constellations were successfully conducted. Comparably less experience (both, in terms of practical observation and strategy definition) is available for eccentric orbits that (at least partly) are in the MEO region, in particular for the Molniya-type orbits. Several breakup events and deliberate fragmentations are known to have taken place in such orbits. Different survey and follow-up strategies for searching space debris objects in highly-eccentric MEO orbits, and to acquire orbits which are sufficiently accurate to catalogue such objects and to maintain their orbits over longer time spans were developed. Simulations were performed to compare the performance of different survey and cataloguing strategies. Eventually, optical observations were conducted in the framework of an ESA study using ESA’s Space Debris Telescope (ESASDT) the 1-m Zeiss telescope located at the Optical Ground Station (OGS) at the Teide Observatory at Tenerife, Spain. A first series of surveys of Molnjya-type orbits was performed between January and April 2013. During these four months survey observations were performed during nine nights. A basic survey consisted of observing a single geocentric field for 10 minutes. If a faint object was found, follow-up observations were performed during the same night to ensure a save rediscovery of the object during the next nights. Additional follow-up observations to maintain the orbits of these newly discovered faint objects were also acquired with AIUB ́s 1m ZIMLAT telescope in Zimmerwald, Switzerland. Eventually 195 basic surveys were performed during these nine nights corresponding to about 32.5 hours of observations. In total 24 uncorrelated faint objects were discovered and all known catalogue objects in the survey fields were detected. On average one uncorrelated object was found every 80 minutes. Some of these objects show a considerable brightness variation and have a high area-to-mass ratio as determined in the orbit estimation process.

Dating brittle tectonic movements with cleft monazite: Fluid-rock interaction and formation of REE minerals

[1] Two millimeter-sized hydrothermal monazites from an open fissure (cleft) that developed late during a dextral transpressional deformation event in the Aar Massif, Switzerland, have been investigated using electron microprobe and ion probe. The monazites are characterized by high Th/U ratios typical of other hydrothermal monazites. Deformation events in the area have been subdivided into three phases: (D1) main thrusting including formation of a new schistosity, (D2) dextral transpression, and (D3) local crenulation including development of a new schistosity. The two younger deformational structures are related to a subvertically oriented intermediate stress axis, which is characteristic for strike slip deformation. The inferred stress environment is consistent with observed kinematics and the opening of such clefts. Therefore, the investigated monazite-bearing cleft formed at the end of D2 and/or D3, and during dextral movements along NNW dipping planes. Interaction of cleft-filling hydrothermal fluid with wall rock results in rare earth element (REE) mineral formation and alteration of the wall rock. The main newly formed REE minerals are Y-Si, Y-Nb-Ti minerals, and monazite. Despite these mineralogical changes, the bulk chemistry of the system remains constant and thus these mineralogical changes require redistribution of elements via a fluid over short distances (centimeter). Low-grade alteration enables local redistribution of REE, related to the stability of the accessory phases. This allows high precision isotope dating of cleft monazite. 232Th/208Pb ages are not affected by excess Pb and yield growth domain ages between 8.03 ± 0.22 and 6.25 ± 0.60 Ma. Monazite crystallization in brittle structures is coeval or younger than 8 Ma zircon fission track data and hence occurred below 280°C.

OSL and TL dating of the Middle Stone Age sequence at Diepkloof Rock Shelter (South Africa): a clarification

Diepkloof Rock Shelter offers an exceptional opportunity to study the onset and evolution of both Still Bay (SB) and Howiesons Poort (HP) techno-complexes. However, previous age estimates based on luminescence dating of burnt quartzites (Tribolo et al., 2009) and of sediments (Jacobs et al., 2008) were not in agreement. Here, we present new luminescence ages for 17 rock samples (equivalent dose estimated with a SAR-ITL protocol instead of classical MAAD-TL) as well as for 5 sediment samples (equivalent dose estimated with SAR-single grain OSL protocol) and an update of the 22 previous age estimates for burnt lithics (modified calibration and beta dose estimates). While a good agreement between the rock and sediment ages is obtained, these estimates are still significantly older than those reported by Jacobs et al. (2008). After our own analyses of the sediment from Diepkloof, it is suspected that these authors did not correctly chose the parameters for the equivalent dose determination, leading to an underestimate of the equivalent doses, and thus of the ages. From bottom to top, the mean ages are 100 ± 10 ka for stratigraphic unit (SU) Noël and 107 ± 11 ka for SU Mark (uncharacterized Lower MSA), 100 ± 10 ka for SU Lynn-Leo (Pre-SB type Lynn), 109 ± 10 ka for SUs Kim-Larry (SB), 105 ± 10 ka for SUs Kerry-Kate and 109 ± 10 ka for SU Jess (Early HP), 89 ± 8 ka for SU Jude (MSA type Jack), 77 ± 8 ka for SU John, 85 ± 9 ka for SU Fox, 83 ± 8 ka for SU Fred and 65 ± 8 ka for SU OB5 (Intermediate HP), 52 ± 5 ka for SUs OB2-4 (Late HP). This chronology, together with the technological analyses, greatly modifies the current chrono-cultural model regarding the SB and the HP and has important archaeological implications. Indeed, SB and HP no longer appear as short-lived techno-complexes with synchronous appearances for each and restricted to Oxygen Isotopic Stage (OIS) 4 across South Africa, as suggested by Jacobs et al. (2008, 2012). Rather, the sequence of Diepkloof supports a long chronology model with an early appearance of both SB and HP in the first half of OIS 5 and a long duration of the HP into OIS 3. These new dates imply that different technological traditions coexisted during OIS 5 and 4 in southern Africa and that SB and HP can no longer be considered as horizon markers.

Small aliquot and single grain IRSL and post-IR IRSL dating of fluvial and alluvial sediments from the Pativilca valley, Peru

Infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) and post-IR IRSL are applied to small aliquots and single grains to determine the equivalent dose (De) of eleven alluvial and fluvial sediment samples collected in the Pativilca valley, Central Peru at ca. 10°S latitude. Small aliquot De distributions are rather symmetric and display over-dispersion values between 15 and 46%. Small aliquot g-values range between 4 and 8% per decade for the IRSL and 1 and 2% per decade for the post-IR IRSL signal. The single grain De distributions are highly over-dispersed with some of them skewed to higher doses, implying partial bleaching; this is especially true for the post-IR IRSL. Measurements of a modern analog reveal that residuals due to partial bleaching are present in both the IRSL as well as the post-IR IRSL signal. The g-values of individual grains exhibit a wide range with high individual uncertainties and might contribute significantly to the spread of the single grain De values, at least for the IRSL data. Electron Microprobe Analysis performed on single grains reveal that a varying K-content can be excluded as the origin of over-dispersion. Final ages for the different approaches are calculated using the Central Age Model and the Minimum Age Model (MAM). The samples are grouped into well-beached, potentially well-bleached and partially bleached according to the evaluation of the single grain distributions and the agreement of age estimates between methods. The application of the MAM to the single grain data resulted in consistent age estimates for both the fading corrected IRSL and the post-IR IRSL ages, and suggests that both approaches are suitable for dating these samples. Keywords

Correlating the Ancient Maya and Modern European Calendars with High-Precision AMS 14C Dating

The reasons for the development and collapse of Maya civilization remain controversial and historical events carved on stone monuments throughout this region provide a remarkable source of data about the rise and fall of these complex polities. Use of these records depends on correlating the Maya and European calendars so that they can be compared with climate and environmental datasets. Correlation constants can vary up to 1000 years and remain controversial. We report a series of high-resolution AMS C-14 dates on a wooden lintel collected from the Classic Period city of Tikal bearing Maya calendar dates. The radiocarbon dates were calibrated using a Bayesian statistical model and indicate that the dates were carved on the lintel between AD 658-696. This strongly supports the Goodman-Martinez-Thompson (GMT) correlation and the hypothesis that climate change played an important role in the development and demise of this complex civilization.

C-14 Measurements of Ice Samples from the Juvfonne Ice Tunnel, Jotunheimen, Southern Norway-Validation of a C-14 Dating Technique for Glacier Ice

Establishing precise age-depth relationships of high-alpine ice cores is essential in order to deduce conclusive paleoclimatic information from these archives. Radiocarbon dating of carbonaceous aerosol particles incorporated in such glaciers is a promising tool to gain absolute ages, especially from the deepest parts where conventional methods are commonly inapplicable. In this study, we present a new validation for a published C-14 dating method for ice cores. Previously C-14-dated horizons of organic material from the Juvfonne ice patch in central southern Norway (61.676 degrees N, 8.354 degrees E) were used as reference dates for adjacent ice layers, which were C-14 dated based on their particulate organic carbon (POC) fraction. Multiple measurements were carried out on 3 sampling locations within the ice patch featuring modern to multimillennial ice. The ages obtained from the analyzed samples were in agreement with the given age estimates. In addition to previous validation work, this independent verification gives further confidence that the investigated method provides the actual age of the ice.