Nuclear power plants and childhood leukaemia: lessons from the past and future directions

In the 1980s, leukaemia clusters were discovered around nuclear fuel reprocessing plants in Sellafield and Dounreay in the United Kingdom. This raised public concern about the risk of childhood leukaemia near nuclear power plants (NPPs). Since then, the topic has been well-studied, but methodological limitations make results difficult to interpret. Our review aims to: (1.) summarise current evidence on the relationship between NPPs and risk of childhood leukaemia, with a focus on the Swiss CANUPIS (Childhood cancer and nuclear power plants in Switzerland) study; (2.) discuss the limitations of previous research; and (3.) suggest directions for future research. There are various reasons that previous studies produced inconclusive results. These include: inadequate study designs and limited statistical power due to the low prevalence of exposure (living near a NPP) and outcome (leukaemia); lack of accurate exposure estimates; limited knowledge of the aetiology of childhood leukaemia, particularly of vulnerable time windows and latent periods; use of residential location at time of diagnosis only and lack of data on address histories; and inability to adjust for potential confounders. We conclude that risk of childhood leukaemia around NPPs should continue to be monitored and that study designs should be improved and standardised. Data should be pooled internationally to increase the statistical power. More research needs to be done on other putative risk factors for childhood cancer such as low-dose ionizing radiation, exposure to certain chemicals and exposure to infections. Studies should be designed to allow examining multiple exposures.

Solar forcing of North Atlantic surface temperature and salinity over the past millennium

There were several centennial-scale fluctuations in the climate and oceanography of the North Atlantic region over the past 1,000 years, including a period of relative cooling from about AD 1450 to 1850 known as the Little Ice Age1. These variations may be linked to changes in solar irradiance, amplified through feedbacks including the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation2. Changes in the return limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are reflected in water properties at the base of the mixed layer south of Iceland. Here we reconstruct thermocline temperature and salinity in this region from AD 818 to 1780 using paired δ18O and Mg/Ca ratio measurements of foraminifer shells from a subdecadally resolved marine sediment core. The reconstructed centennial-scale variations in hydrography correlate with variability in total solar irradiance. We find a similar correlation in a simulation of climate over the past 1,000 years. We infer that the hydrographic changes probably reflect variability in the strength of the subpolar gyre associated with changes in atmospheric circulation. Specifically, in the simulation, low solar irradiance promotes the development of frequent and persistent atmospheric blocking events, in which a quasi-stationary high-pressure system in the eastern North Atlantic modifies the flow of the westerly winds. We conclude that this process could have contributed to the consecutive cold winters documented in Europe during the Little Ice Age.

A 2600-year record of past polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) deposition at Holzmaar (Eifel, Germany)

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a proxy for climate- and human-related historical fire activity which has rarely been used beyond 1800 AD. We explored the concentration and composition patterns of PAHs together with other proxies (charcoal, C, N, S, δ13C, δ15N, and δ34S) in a sediment core of Holzmaar as indicators of variations in climate and anthropogenic activity over the past 2600 years. The concentrations of pyrogenic PAHs remained low (< 500 ng g− 1) from the pre-Roman Iron Age (600 BC) until the first significant increases to ca. 1000–1800 ng g− 1 between 1700 and 1750 AD related to regional iron production. The highest increases in pyrogenic PAH concentrations occurred with industrialization peaking in the 1960s. PAH concentrations in most recent sediments decreased to pre-industrial levels because of emission control measures and the switch from coal to oil and gas as major fuel sources. Fluxes of PAHs (mg km− 2 yr− 1) increased in the order Migration Period and Early Middle Ages < pre-Roman Iron Ages < Roman era < High Middle Ages and Renaissance < pre-industrial modern period < industrial modern period. The changes of PAHs fluxes in pre-industrial times parallel known changes in local, regional and continental anthropogenic activity and climatic variations or their interactions across these historical periods. Perylene, a mainly biologically produced compound, was the dominant PAH in pre-industrial times. The Migration Period and the Early Middle Ages witnessed the most profound and simultaneous changes to the sedimentary organic matter properties in the past 2600 years including the lowest PAH fluxes because of reduced human activity and more negative δ13C and δ15N values probably in response to colder and wetter conditions.

Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium

The Earth’s climate system is driven by a complex interplay of internal chaotic dynamics and natural and anthropogenic external forcing. Recent instrumental data have shown a remarkable degree of asynchronicity between Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere temperature fluctuations, thereby questioning the relative importance of internal versus external drivers of past as well as future climate variability1, 2, 3. However, large-scale temperature reconstructions for the past millennium have focused on the Northern Hemisphere4, 5, limiting empirical assessments of inter-hemispheric variability on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. Here, we introduce a new millennial ensemble reconstruction of annually resolved temperature variations for the Southern Hemisphere based on an unprecedented network of terrestrial and oceanic palaeoclimate proxy records. In conjunction with an independent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction ensemble5, this record reveals an extended cold period (1594–1677) in both hemispheres but no globally coherent warm phase during the pre-industrial (1000–1850) era. The current (post-1974) warm phase is the only period of the past millennium where both hemispheres are likely to have experienced contemporaneous warm extremes. Our analysis of inter-hemispheric temperature variability in an ensemble of climate model simulations for the past millennium suggests that models tend to overemphasize Northern Hemisphere–Southern Hemisphere synchronicity by underestimating the role of internal ocean–atmosphere dynamics, particularly in the ocean-dominated Southern Hemisphere. Our results imply that climate system predictability on decadal to century timescales may be lower than expected based on assessments of external climate forcing and Northern Hemisphere temperature variations5, 6 alone.

Transition and Justice: Negotiating the Terms of New Beginnings in Africa

Transition and Justice examines a series of cases from across the African continent where peaceful ‘new beginnings’ were declared after periods of violence and where transitional justice institutions helped define justice and the new socio-political order. Offers a new perspective on transition and justice in Africa transcending the institutional limits of transitional justice Covers a wide range of situations, and presents a broad range of sites where past injustices are addressed Examines cases where peaceful ‘new beginnings’ have been declared after periods of violence Addresses fundamental questions about transitions and justice in societies characterized by a high degree of external involvement and internal fragmentation

Transition and Justice: An Introduction

Since the end of the Cold War, political new beginnings have increasingly been linked to questions of transitional justice. The contributions to this collection examine a series of cases from across the African continent where peaceful ‘new beginnings’ have been declared after periods of violence and where transitional justice institutions played a role in defining justice and the new socio-political order. Three issues seem to be crucial to the understanding of transitional justice in the context of wider social debates on justice and political change: the problem of ‘new beginnings’, of finding a foundation for that which explicitly breaks with the past; the discrepancies between lofty promises and the messy realities of transitional justice in action; and the dialectic between logics of the exception and the ordinary, employed to legitimize or resist transitional justice mechanisms. These are the particular focus of this Introduction.

Impact of solar versus volcanic activity variations on tropospheric temperatures and precipitation during the Dalton Minimum

The aim of this work is to elucidate the impact of changes in solar irradiance and energetic particles versus volcanic eruptions on tropospheric global climate during the Dalton Minimum (DM, AD 1780–1840). Separate variations in the (i) solar irradiance in the UV-C with wavelengths λ < 250 nm, (ii) irradiance at wavelengths λ > 250 nm, (iii) in energetic particle spectrum, and (iv) volcanic aerosol forcing were analyzed separately, and (v) in combination, by means of small ensemble calculations using a coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry–climate model. Global and hemispheric mean surface temperatures show a significant dependence on solar irradiance at λ > 250 nm. Also, powerful volcanic eruptions in 1809, 1815, 1831 and 1835 significantly decreased global mean temperature by up to 0.5 K for 2–3 years after the eruption. However, while the volcanic effect is clearly discernible in the Southern Hemispheric mean temperature, it is less significant in the Northern Hemisphere, partly because the two largest volcanic eruptions occurred in the SH tropics and during seasons when the aerosols were mainly transported southward, partly because of the higher northern internal variability. In the simulation including all forcings, temperatures are in reasonable agreement with the tree ring-based temperature anomalies of the Northern Hemisphere. Interestingly, the model suggests that solar irradiance changes at λ < 250 nm and in energetic particle spectra have only an insignificant impact on the climate during the Dalton Minimum. This downscales the importance of top–down processes (stemming from changes at λ < 250 nm) relative to bottom–up processes (from λ > 250 nm). Reduction of irradiance at λ > 250 nm leads to a significant (up to 2%) decrease in the ocean heat content (OHC) between 0 and 300 m in depth, whereas the changes in irradiance at λ < 250 nm or in energetic particles have virtually no effect. Also, volcanic aerosol yields a very strong response, reducing the OHC of the upper ocean by up to 1.5%. In the simulation with all forcings, the OHC of the uppermost levels recovers after 8–15 years after volcanic eruption, while the solar signal and the different volcanic eruptions dominate the OHC changes in the deeper ocean and prevent its recovery during the DM. Finally, the simulations suggest that the volcanic eruptions during the DM had a significant impact on the precipitation patterns caused by a widening of the Hadley cell and a shift in the intertropical convergence zone.

A model-data comparison of Holocene timberline changes in the Swiss Alps reveals past and future drivers of mountain forest dynamics

Mountain vegetation is strongly affected by temperature and is expected to shift upwards with climate change. Dynamic vegetation models are often used to assess the impact of climate on vegetation and model output can be compared with paleobotanical data as a reality check. Recent paleoecological studies have revealed regional variation in the upward shift of timberlines in the Northern and Central European Alps in response to rapid warming at the Younger Dryas/Preboreal transition ca. 11700years ago, probably caused by a climatic gradient across the Alps. This contrasts with previous studies that successfully simulated the early Holocene afforestation in the (warmer) Central Alps with a chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction from the (colder) Northern Alps. We use LandClim, a dynamic landscape vegetation model to simulate mountain forests under different temperature, soil and precipitation scenarios around Iffigsee (2065m a.s.l.) a lake in the Northwestern Swiss Alps, and compare the model output with the paleobotanical records. The model clearly overestimates the upward shift of timberline in a climate scenario that applies chironomid-inferred July-temperature anomalies to all months. However, forest establishment at 9800 cal. BP at Iffigsee is successfully simulated with lower moisture availability and monthly temperatures corrected for stronger seasonality during the early Holocene. The model-data comparison reveals a contraction in the realized niche of Abies alba due to the prominent role of anthropogenic disturbance after ca. 5000 cal. BP, which has important implications for species distribution models (SDMs) that rely on equilibrium with climate and niche stability. Under future climate projections, LandClim indicates a rapid upward shift of mountain vegetation belts by ca. 500m and treeline positions of ca. 2500m a.s.l. by the end of this century. Resulting biodiversity losses in the alpine vegetation belt might be mitigated with low-impact pastoralism to preserve species-rich alpine meadows.

The Evolution of Totalitarianism: From Stalin to Putin

The Soviet Union is commonly cited as "totalitarian." But just how totalitarian was the Soviet Union? The modern Russian Federation? There is an ongoing debate in Georgia about the Soviet past, the role of Stalin in Georgian history, an importance of Soviet legacies in shaping the nationalist discourse after independence and etc. Various roundtables and conferences reflecting on the historical, political and sociological contexts of the Soviet occupation are held in Georgian academic institutions and universities. On a discursive level, it is taken as a given that the „Evil Empire‟ was indeed totalitarian – brutally repressive, all-encompassing, and terrorizing. The term "totalitarian" embodies a multitude of concepts which we will try to discuss in a historical perspective, testing the extent of applicability and relevance of this term to modern-day Russia.

Past and future carbon fluxes from land use change, shifting cultivation and wood harvest

Carbon emissions from anthropogenic land use (LU) and land use change (LUC) are quantified with a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for the past and the 21st century following Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Wood harvesting and parallel abandonment and expansion of agricultural land in areas of shifting cultivation are explicitly simulated (gross LUC) based on the Land Use Harmonization (LUH) dataset and a proposed alternative method that relies on minimum input data and generically accounts for gross LUC. Cumulative global LUC emissions are 72 GtC by 1850 and 243 GtC by 2004 and 27–151 GtC for the next 95 yr following the different RCP scenarios. The alternative method reproduces results based on LUH data with full transition information within <0.1 GtC/yr over the last decades and bears potential for applications in combination with other LU scenarios. In the last decade, shifting cultivation and wood harvest within remaining forests including slash each contributed 19% to the mean annual emissions of 1.2 GtC/yr. These factors, in combination with amplification effects under elevated CO2, contribute substantially to future emissions from LUC in all RCPs.

Intensive care sedation: the past, present and the future

Despite the universal prescription of sedative drugs in the intensive care unit (ICU), current practice is not guided by high-level evidence. Landmark sedation trials have made significant contributions to our understanding of the problems associated with ICU sedation and have promoted changes to current practice. We identified challenges and limitations of clinical trials which reduced the generalizability and the universal adoption of key interventions. We present an international perspective regarding current sedation practice and a blueprint for future research, which seeks to avoid known limitations and generate much-needed high-level evidence to better guide clinicians' management and therapeutic choices of sedative agents.