152 resultados para Weighted Poisson distributions


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INTRODUCTION Extended-spectrum beta-lactamases (ESBL) and AmpC beta-lactamases (AmpC) are of concern for veterinary and public health because of their ability to cause treatment failure due to antimicrobial resistance in Enterobacteriaceae. The main objective was to assess the relative contribution (RC) of different types of meat to the exposure of consumers to ESBL/AmpC and their potential importance for human infections in Denmark. MATERIAL AND METHODS The prevalence of each genotype of ESBL/AmpC-producing E. coli in imported and nationally produced broiler meat, pork and beef was weighted by the meat consumption patterns. Data originated from the Danish surveillance program for antibiotic use and antibiotic resistance (DANMAP) from 2009 to 2011. DANMAP also provided data about human ESBL/AmpC cases in 2011, which were used to assess a possible genotype overlap. Uncertainty about the occurrence of ESBL/AmpC-producing E. coli in meat was assessed by inspecting beta distributions given the available data of the genotypes in each type of meat. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Broiler meat represented the largest part (83.8%) of the estimated ESBL/AmpC-contaminated pool of meat compared to pork (12.5%) and beef (3.7%). CMY-2 was the genotype with the highest RC to human exposure (58.3%). However, this genotype is rarely found in human infections in Denmark. CONCLUSION The overlap between ESBL/AmpC genotypes in meat and human E. coli infections was limited. This suggests that meat might constitute a less important source of ESBL/AmpC exposure to humans in Denmark than previously thought - maybe because the use of cephalosporins is restricted in cattle and banned in poultry and pigs. Nonetheless, more detailed surveillance data are required to determine the contribution of meat compared to other sources, such as travelling, pets, water resources, community and hospitals in the pursuit of a full source attribution model.

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Theoretical models predict lognormal species abundance distributions (SADs) in stable and productive environments, with log-series SADs in less stable, dispersal driven communities. We studied patterns of relative species abundances of perennial vascular plants in global dryland communities to: (i) assess the influence of climatic and soil characteristics on the observed SADs, (ii) infer how environmental variability influences relative abundances, and (iii) evaluate how colonisation dynamics and environmental filters shape abundance distributions. We fitted lognormal and log-series SADs to 91 sites containing at least 15 species of perennial vascular plants. The dependence of species relative abundances on soil and climate variables was assessed using general linear models. Irrespective of habitat type and latitude, the majority of the SADs (70.3%) were best described by a lognormal distribution. Lognormal SADs were associated with low annual precipitation, higher aridity, high soil carbon content, and higher variability of climate variables and soil nitrate. Our results do not corroborate models predicting the prevalence of log-series SADs in dryland communities. As lognormal SADs were particularly associated with sites with drier conditions and a higher environmental variability, we reject models linking lognormality to environmental stability and high productivity conditions. Instead our results point to the prevalence of lognormal SADs in heterogeneous environments, allowing for more evenly distributed plant communities, or in stressful ecosystems, which are generally shaped by strong habitat filters and limited colonisation. This suggests that drylands may be resilient to environmental changes because the many species with intermediate relative abundances could take over ecosystem functioning if the environment becomes suboptimal for dominant species.