Reconstruction of Holocene vegetation dynamics at Lac de Bretaye, a high-mountain lake in the Swiss Alps

A deeper understanding of past vegetation dynamics is required to better assess future vegetation responses to global warming in the Alps. Lake sediments from Lac de Bretaye, a small subalpine lake in the Northern Swiss Alps (1780 m a.s.l.), were analysed to reconstruct past vegetation dynamics for the entire Holocene, using pollen, macrofossil and charcoal analyses as main proxies. The results show that timberline reached the lake’s catchment area at around 10,300 cal. BP, supporting the hypothesis of a delayed postglacial afforestation in the Northern Alps. At the same time, thermophilous trees such as Ulmus, Tilia and Acer established in the lowlands and expanded to the altitude of the lake, forming distinctive boreo-nemoral forests with Betula, Pinus cembra and Larix decidua. From about 5000 to 3500 cal. BP, thermophilous trees declined because of increasing human land use, mainly driven by the mass expansion of Picea abies and severe anthropogenic fire activity. From the Bronze Age onwards (c. 4200–2800 cal. BP), grazing indicators and high values for charcoal concentration and influx attest an intensifying human impact, fostering the expansion of Alnus viridis and Picea abies. Hence, biodiversity in alpine meadows increased, whereas forest diversity declined, as can be seen in other regional records. We argue that the anticipated climate change and decreasing human impact in the Alps today will not only lead to an upward movement of timberline with consequent loss of area for grasslands, but also to a disruption of Picea abies forests, which may allow the re-expansion of thermophilous tree species.

Can we constrain the interior structure of rocky exoplanets from mass and radius measurements?

Aims. We present an inversion method based on Bayesian analysis to constrain the interior structure of terrestrial exoplanets, in the form of chemical composition of the mantle and core size. Specifically, we identify what parts of the interior structure of terrestrial exoplanets can be determined from observations of mass, radius, and stellar elemental abundances. Methods. We perform a full probabilistic inverse analysis to formally account for observational and model uncertainties and obtain confidence regions of interior structure models. This enables us to characterize how model variability depends on data and associated uncertainties. Results. We test our method on terrestrial solar system planets and find that our model predictions are consistent with independent estimates. Furthermore, we apply our method to synthetic exoplanets up to 10 Earth masses and up to 1.7 Earth radii, and to exoplanet Kepler-36b. Importantly, the inversion strategy proposed here provides a framework for understanding the level of precision required to characterize the interior of exoplanets. Conclusions. Our main conclusions are (1) observations of mass and radius are sufficient to constrain core size; (2) stellar elemental abundances (Fe, Si, Mg) are principal constraints to reduce degeneracy in interior structure models and to constrain mantle composition; (3) the inherent degeneracy in determining interior structure from mass and radius observations does not only depend on measurement accuracies, but also on the actual size and density of the exoplanet. We argue that precise observations of stellar elemental abundances are central in order to place constraints on planetary bulk composition and to reduce model degeneracy. We provide a general methodology of analyzing interior structures of exoplanets that may help to understand how interior models are distributed among star systems. The methodology we propose is sufficiently general to allow its future extension to more complex internal structures including hydrogen- and water-rich exoplanets.

Climate change in mountain regions: how local communities adapt to extreme events

This paper examines how local communities adapt to climate change and how governance structures can foster or undermine adaptive capacity. Climate change policies, in general, and disaster risk management in mountain regions, in particular, are characterised by their multi-level and multi-sectoral nature during formulation and implementation. The involvement of numerous state and non-state actors at local to national levels produces a variety of networks of interaction and communication. The paper argues that the structure of these relational patterns is critical for understanding adaptive capacity. It thus proposes an expanded concept of adaptive capacity that incorporates (horizontal and vertical) actor integration and communication flow between these actors. The paper further advocates the use of formal social network analysis to assess these relational patterns. Preliminary results from research on adaptation to climate change in a Swiss mountain region vulnerable to floods and other natural hazards illustrate the conceptual and empirical significance of the main arguments.

Long-term Responses of Mountain Ecosystems to Environmental Changes: Resilience, Adjustment, and Vulnerability

The steep environmental gradients of mountain ecosystems over short distances reflect large gradients of several climatic parameters and hence provide excellent possibilities for ecological research on the effects of environmental change. To gain a better understanding of the dynamics of abiotic and biotic parameters of mountain ecosystems, long-term records are required since permanent plots in mountain regions cover in the best case about 50 - 70 years. In order to extend investigations of ecological dynamics beyond these temporal limitations of permanent plots, paleoecological approaches can be used if the sampling resolution can be adapted to ecological research questions, e.g. a sample every 10 years. Paleoecological studies in mountain ecosystems can provide new ecological insights through the combination of different spatial and temporal scales. [f we thus improve our understanding of processes across both steep environmental gradients and different time scales, we may be able to better estimate ecosystem responses to current and future environmental change (Ammann et al. 1993; Lotter et al. 1997). The complexity of ecological interactions in mountain regions forces us to concentrate on a number of sub-systems - without losing sight of the wider context. Here, we summarize a few case studies on the effects of Holocene climate change and disturbance on the vegetation of the Western Alps. To categorize the main response modes of vegetation to climatic change and disturbance in the Alps we use three classes of ecological behaviour: "resilience", "adjustment", and "vulnerability", We assume a resilient (or elastic) behaviour if vegetation is able to recover to its former state, regaining important ecosystem characteristics, such as floristic composition, biodiversity, species abundances, and biomass (e.g. Küttel 1990; Aber and Melillo 199 1). Conversely, vegetation displacements may occur in response to climatic change and/or disturbance. In some cases, this may culminate in irreversible large-scale processes such as species and/or community extinctions. Such drastic developments indicate high ecosystem vulnerability (or inelasticity or instability, for detailed definitions see Küttel 1990; Aber and Melillo 199 1) to climatic change and/or disturbance. In this sense, the "vulnerability" (or instability) of an ecosystem is expressed by the degree of failure to recover to the original state before disturbance and/or climatic change. Between these two extremes (resilience vs. vulnerability), ecosystem adjustments to climatic change and/or disturbance may occur, including the appearance of new and/or the disappearance of old species. The term "adjustment" is hence used to indicate the response of vegetational communities, which adapted to new environmental conditions without losing their main character. For forest ecosystems, we assume vegetational adjustments (rather than vulnerability) if the dominant (or co-dominant) tree species are not outnumbered or replaced by formerly unimportant plant species or new invaders. Adaptation as a genetic process is not discussed here and will require additional pbylogeographical studies (that incorporate the analysis of ancient DNA) in order to fully understand the distributions of ecotypes.

Mountains of the world - Sustainable development in mountain areas: The need for adequate policies and instruments

This brochure deals with policies and policy instruments needed to promote sustainable development in mountain areas. The first part presents an overview of key issues in mountain development, and principles and strategies that should be adopted. Each principle contains a checklist for policy-makers. The second part presents national and regional case studies of successful approaches and initiatives relating to mountain policy from all over the world. The brochure concludes with a call for multi-level initiatives and partnerships. This full-colour publication is part of the Mountains of the World series. It was prepared for the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg by an international panel of experts coordinated by CDE. It was commissioned and funded by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC).