Natural History of Geographic Atrophy Progression Secondary to Age-Related Macular Degeneration (Geographic Atrophy Progression Study).

PURPOSE The Geographic Atrophy Progression (GAP) study was designed to assess the rate of geographic atrophy (GA) progression and to identify prognostic factors by measuring the enlargement of the atrophic lesions using fundus autofluorescence (FAF) and color fundus photography (CFP). DESIGN Prospective, multicenter, noninterventional natural history study. PARTICIPANTS A total of 603 participants were enrolled in the study; 413 of those had gradable lesion data from FAF or CFP, and 321 had gradable lesion data from both FAF and CFP. METHODS Atrophic lesion areas were measured by FAF and CFP to assess lesion progression over time. Lesion size assessments and best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) were conducted at screening/baseline (day 0) and at 3 follow-up visits: month 6, month 12, and month 18 (or early exit). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The GA lesion progression rate in disease subgroups and mean change from baseline visual acuity. RESULTS Mean (standard error) lesion size changes from baseline, determined by FAF and CFP, respectively, were 0.88 (0.1) and 0.78 (0.1) mm(2) at 6 months, 1.85 (0.1) and 1.57 (0.1) mm(2) at 12 months, and 3.14 (0.4) and 3.17 (0.5) mm(2) at 18 months. The mean change in lesion size from baseline to month 12 was significantly greater in participants who had eyes with multifocal atrophic spots compared with those with unifocal spots (P < 0.001) and those with extrafoveal lesions compared with those with foveal lesions (P = 0.001). The mean (standard deviation) decrease in visual acuity was 6.2 ± 15.6 letters for patients with image data available. Atrophic lesions with a diffuse (mean 0.95 mm(2)) or banded (mean 1.01 mm(2)) FAF pattern grew more rapidly by month 6 compared with those with the "none" (mean, 0.13 mm(2)) and focal (mean, 0.36 mm(2)) FAF patterns. CONCLUSIONS Although differences were observed in mean lesion size measurements using FAF imaging compared with CFP, the measurements were highly correlated with one another. Significant differences were found in lesion progression rates in participants stratified by hyperfluorescence pattern subtype. This large GA natural history study provides a strong foundation for future clinical trials.

Prediction of improvement in skin fibrosis in diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis: a EUSTAR analysis

OBJECTIVES Improvement of skin fibrosis is part of the natural course of diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc). Recognising those patients most likely to improve could help tailoring clinical management and cohort enrichment for clinical trials. In this study, we aimed to identify predictors for improvement of skin fibrosis in patients with dcSSc. METHODS We performed a longitudinal analysis of the European Scleroderma Trials And Research (EUSTAR) registry including patients with dcSSc, fulfilling American College of Rheumatology criteria, baseline modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) ≥7 and follow-up mRSS at 12±2 months. The primary outcome was skin improvement (decrease in mRSS of >5 points and ≥25%) at 1 year follow-up. A respective increase in mRSS was considered progression. Candidate predictors for skin improvement were selected by expert opinion and logistic regression with bootstrap validation was applied. RESULTS From the 919 patients included, 218 (24%) improved and 95 (10%) progressed. Eleven candidate predictors for skin improvement were analysed. The final model identified high baseline mRSS and absence of tendon friction rubs as independent predictors of skin improvement. The baseline mRSS was the strongest predictor of skin improvement, independent of disease duration. An upper threshold between 18 and 25 performed best in enriching for progressors over regressors. CONCLUSIONS Patients with advanced skin fibrosis at baseline and absence of tendon friction rubs are more likely to regress in the next year than patients with milder skin fibrosis. These evidence-based data can be implemented in clinical trial design to minimise the inclusion of patients who would regress under standard of care.