The number needed to treat to prevent mortality and cirrhosis-related complications among patients with cirrhosis and HCV genotype 1 infection

Cirrhotic patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection remain at risk for complications following sustained virological response (SVR). Therefore, we aimed to evaluate treatment efficacy with the number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent clinical endpoints. Mortality and cirrhosis-related morbidity were assessed in an international multicentre cohort of consecutively treated patients with HCV genotype 1 infection and cirrhosis. The NNT to prevent death or clinical disease progression (any cirrhosis-related event or death) in one patient was determined with the adjusted (event-free) survival among patients without SVR and adjusted hazard ratio of SVR. Overall, 248 patients were followed for a median of 8.3 (IQR 6.2-11.1) years. Fifty-nine (24%) patients attained SVR. Among patients without SVR, the adjusted 5-year survival and event-free survival were 94.4% and 80.0%, respectively. SVR was associated with reduced all-cause mortality (HR 0.15, 95% CI 0.05-0.48, P = 0.002) and clinical disease progression (HR 0.16, 95% CI 0.07-0.36, P < 0.001). The NNT to prevent one death in 5 years declined from 1052 (95% CI 937-1755) at 2% SVR (interferon monotherapy) to 61 (95% CI 54-101) at 35% SVR (peginterferon and ribavirin). At 50% SVR, which might be expected with triple therapy, the estimated NNT was 43 (95% CI 38-71). The NNT to prevent clinical disease progression in one patient in 5 years was 302 (95% CI 271-407), 18 (95% CI 16-24) and 13 (95% CI 11-17) at 2%, 35% and 50% SVR, respectively. In conclusion, the NNT to prevent clinical endpoints among cirrhotic patients with HCV genotype 1 has declined enormously with the improvement of antiviral therapy.

Relative survival is an adequate estimate of cancer-specific survival: baseline mortality-adjusted 10-year survival of 771 rectal cancer patients.

BACKGROUND The objective of the present investigation is to assess the baseline mortality-adjusted 10-year survival of rectal cancer patients. METHODS Ten-year survival was analyzed in 771 consecutive American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage I-IV rectal cancer patients undergoing open resection between 1991 and 2008 using risk-adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression models adjusting for population-based baseline mortality. RESULTS The median follow-up of patients alive was 8.8 years. The 10-year relative, overall, and cancer-specific survival were 66.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 61.3-72.1], 48.7% (95% CI 44.9-52.8), and 66.4% (95% CI 62.5-70.5), respectively. In the entire patient sample (stage I-IV) 47.3% and in patients with stage I-III 33.6 % of all deaths were related to rectal cancer during the 10-year period. For patients with AJCC stage I rectal cancer, the 10-year overall survival was 96% and did not significantly differ from an average population after matching for gender, age, and calendar year (p = 0.151). For the more advanced tumor stages, however, survival was significantly impaired (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Retrospective investigations of survival after rectal cancer resection should adjust for baseline mortality because a large fraction of deaths is not cancer related. Stage I rectal cancer patients, compared to patients with more advanced disease stages, have a relative survival close to 100% and can thus be considered cured. Using this relative-survival approach, the real public health burden caused by rectal cancer can reliably be analyzed and reported.

Copper, ceruloplasmin, and long-term cardiovascular and total mortality (the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health Study)

BACKGROUND Copper and its main transport protein ceruloplasmin have been suggested to promote the development of atherosclerosis. Most of the data come from experimental and animal model studies. Copper and mortality have not been simultaneously evaluated in patients undergoing coronary angiography. METHODS AND RESULTS We examined whether serum copper and ceruloplasmin concentrations are associated with angiographic coronary artery disease (CAD) and mortality from all causes and cardiovascular causes in 3253 participants of the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health Study. Age and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for death from any cause were 2.23 (95% CI, 1.85-2.68) for copper and 2.63 (95% CI, 2.17-3.20) for ceruloplasmin when we compared the highest with the lowest quartiles. Corresponding hazard ratios (HR) for death from cardiovascular causes were 2.58 (95% CI, 2.05-3.25) and 3.02 (95% CI, 2.36-3.86), respectively. Further adjustments for various risk factors and clinical variables considerably attenuated these associations, which, however, were still statistically significant and the results remained consistent across subgroups. CONCLUSIONS The elevated concentrations of both copper and ceruloplasmin are independently associated with increased risk of mortality from all causes and from cardiovascular causes.

Low-density lipoprotein particle diameter and mortality: the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health Study.

AIMS The aim of the study was to examine whether differences in average diameter of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) particles were associated with total and cardiovascular mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS We studied 1643 subjects referred to coronary angiography, who did not receive lipid-lowering drugs. During a median follow-up of 9.9 years, 398 patients died, of these 246 from cardiovascular causes. We calculated average particle diameters of LDL from the composition of LDL obtained by β-quantification. When LDL with intermediate average diameters (16.5-16.8 nm) were used as reference category, the hazard ratios (HRs) adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors for death from any cause were 1.71 (95% CI: 1.31-2.25) and 1.24 (95% CI: 0.95-1.63) in patients with large (>16.8 nm) or small LDL (<16.5 nm), respectively. Adjusted HRs for death from cardiovascular causes were 1.89 (95% CI: 1.32-2.70) and 1.54 (95% CI: 1.06-2.12) in patients with large or small LDL, respectively. Patients with large LDL had higher concentrations of the inflammatory markers interleukin (IL)-6 and C-reactive protein than patients with small or intermediate LDL. Equilibrium density gradient ultracentrifugation revealed characteristic and distinct profiles of LDL particles in persons with large (approximately even distribution of intermediate-density lipoproteins and LDL-1 through LDL-6) intermediate (peak concentration at LDL-4) or small (peak concentration at LDL-6) average LDL particle diameters. CONCLUSIONS Calculated LDL particle diameters identify patients with different profiles of LDL subfractions. Both large and small LDL diameters are independently associated with increased risk mortality of all causes and, more so, due to cardiovascular causes compared with LDL of intermediate size.

HDL Cholesterol Is Not Associated with Lower Mortality in Patients with Kidney Dysfunction

In the general population, HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) is associated with reduced cardiovascular events. However, recent experimental data suggest that the vascular effects of HDL can be heterogeneous. We examined the association of HDL-C with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health study comprising 3307 patients undergoing coronary angiography. Patients were followed for a median of 9.9 years. Estimated GFR (eGFR) was calculated using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration eGFR creatinine-cystatin C (eGFRcreat-cys) equation. The effect of increasing HDL-C serum levels was assessed using Cox proportional hazard models. In participants with normal kidney function (eGFR>90 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)), higher HDL-C was associated with reduced risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and coronary artery disease severity (hazard ratio [HR], 0.51, 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.26-0.92 [P=0.03]; HR, 0.30, 95% CI, 0.13-0.73 [P=0.01]). Conversely, in patients with mild (eGFR=60-89 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)) and more advanced reduced kidney function (eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)), higher HDL-C did not associate with lower risk for mortality (eGFR=60-89 ml/min per 1.73 m(2): HR, 0.68, 95% CI, 0.45-1.04 [P=0.07]; HR, 0.84, 95% CI, 0.50-1.40 [P=0.50]; eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2): HR, 1.18, 95% CI, 0.60-1.81 [P=0.88]; HR, 0.82, 95% CI, 0.40-1.69 [P=0.60]). Moreover, Cox regression analyses revealed interaction between HDL-C and eGFR in predicting all-cause and cardiovascular mortality (P=0.04 and P=0.02, respectively). We confirmed a lack of association between higher HDL-C and lower mortality in an independent cohort of patients with definite CKD (P=0.63). In summary, higher HDL-C levels did not associate with reduced mortality risk and coronary artery disease severity in patients with reduced kidney function. Indeed, abnormal HDL function might confound the outcome of HDL-targeted therapies in these patients.

C-reactive protein predicts mortality in patients referred for coronary angiography and symptoms of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction

AIMS Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) has a different pathophysiological background compared to heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Tailored risk prediction in this separate heart failure group with a high mortality rate is of major importance. Inflammation may play an important role in the pathogenesis of HFpEF because of its significant contribution to myocardial fibrosis. We therefore aimed to assess the predictive value of C-reactive protein (CRP) in patients with HFpEF. METHODS AND RESULTS Plasma levels of CRP were determined in 459 patients with HFpEF in the LUdwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study using a high-sensitivity assay. During a median follow-up of 9.7 years 40% of these patients died. CRP predicted all-cause mortality with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 1.20 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.40, P = 0.018] and cardiovascular mortality with a HR of 1.32 (95% CI 1.08-1.62, P = 0.005) per increase of one standard deviation. CRP was a significantly stronger mortality predictor in HFpEF patients than in a control group of 522 HFrEF patients (for interaction, P = 0.015). Furthermore, CRP added prognostic value to N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (Nt-proBNP): the lowest 5-year mortality rate of 6.8% was observed for patients in the lowest tertile of Nt-proBNP as well as CRP. The mortality risk peaked in the group combining the highest values of Nt-proBNP and CRP with a 5-year rate of 36.5%. CONCLUSION It was found that CRP was an independent and strong predictor of mortality in HFpEF. This observation may reflect immunological processes with an adverse impact on the course of HFpEF.

Positive affect moderates the effect of negative affect on cardiovascular disease-related hospitalizations and all-cause mortality after cardiac rehabilitation

BACKGROUND Little is known as to whether negative emotions adversely impact the prognosis of patients who undergo cardiac rehabilitation. We prospectively investigated the predictive value of state negative affect (NA) assessed at discharge from cardiac rehabilitation for prognosis and the moderating role of positive affect (PA) on the effect of NA on outcomes. METHODS A total of 564 cardiac patients (62.49 ± 11.51) completed a comprehensive three-month outpatient cardiac rehabilitation program, filling in the Global Mood Scale (GMS) at discharge. The combined endpoint was cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related hospitalizations plus all-cause mortality at follow-up. Cox regression models estimated the predictive value of NA, as well as the moderating influence of PA on outcomes. Survival models were adjusted for sociodemographic factors, traditional cardiovascular risk factors, and severity of disease. RESULTS During a mean follow-up period of 3.4 years, 71 patients were hospitalized for a CVD-related event and 15 patients died. NA score (range 0-20) was a significant and independent predictor (hazard ratio (HR) 1.091, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.012-1.175; p = 0.023) with a three-point higher level in NA increasing the relative risk by 9.1%. Furthermore, PA interacted significantly with NA (p < 0.001). The relative risk of poor prognosis with NA was increased in patients with low PA (p = 0.012) but remained unchanged in combination with high PA (p = 0.12). CONCLUSION The combination of NA with low PA was particularly predictive of poor prognosis. Whether reduction of NA and increase of PA, particularly in those with high NA, improves outcome needs to be tested.

Elevated AST-to-platelet ratio index is associated with increased all-cause mortality among HIV-infected adults in Zambia.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS We investigated the association between significant liver fibrosis, determined by AST-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), and all-cause mortality among HIV-infected patients prescribed antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Zambia METHODS: Among HIV-infected adults who initiated ART, we categorized baseline APRI scores according to established thresholds for significant hepatic fibrosis (APRI ≥1.5) and cirrhosis (APRI ≥2.0). Using multivariable logistic regression we identified risk factors for elevated APRI including demographic characteristics, body mass index (BMI), HIV clinical and immunologic status, and tuberculosis. In the subset tested for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), we investigated the association of hepatitis B virus co-infection with APRI score. Using Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression we determined the association of elevated APRI with death during ART. RESULTS Among 20,308 adults in the analysis cohort, 1,027 (5.1%) had significant liver fibrosis at ART initiation including 616 (3.0%) with cirrhosis. Risk factors for significant fibrosis or cirrhosis included male sex, BMI <18, WHO clinical stage 3 or 4, CD4+ count <200 cells/mm(3) , and tuberculosis. Among the 237 (1.2%) who were tested, HBsAg-positive patients had four times the odds (adjusted odds ratio, 4.15; 95% CI, 1.71-10.04) of significant fibrosis compared HBsAg-negatives. Both significant fibrosis (adjusted hazard ratio 1.41, 95% CI, 1.21-1.64) and cirrhosis (adjusted hazard ratio 1.57, 95% CI, 1.31-1.89) were associated with increased all-cause mortality. CONCLUSION Liver fibrosis may be a risk factor for mortality during ART among HIV-infected individuals in Africa. APRI is an inexpensive and potentially useful test for liver fibrosis in resource-constrained settings. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Differences in coronary risk factors, procedural characteristics, mortality and stent thrombosis between two all-comers percutaneous coronary intervention registries from Europe and Japan: a patient-level data analysis of the Bern-Rotterdam and j-Cypher registries

Aims: The reported rate of stent thrombosis (ST) after drug-eluting stent (DES) implantation varies among registries. To investigate differences in baseline characteristics and clinical outcome in European and Japanese all-comers registries, we performed a pooled analysis of patient-level data. Methods and results: The j-Cypher registry (JC) is a multicentre observational study conducted in Japan, including 12,824 patients undergoing SES implantation. From the Bern-Rotterdam registry (BR) enrolled at two academic hospitals in Switzerland and the Netherlands, 3,823 patients with SES were included in the current analysis. Patients in BR were younger, more frequently smokers and presented more frequently with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (MI). Conversely, JC patients more frequently had diabetes and hypertension. At five years, the definite ST rate was significantly lower in JC than BR (JC 1.6% vs. BR 3.3%, p<0.001), while the unadjusted mortality tended to be lower in BR than in JC (BR 13.2% vs. JC 14.4%, log-rank p=0.052). After adjustment, the j-Cypher registry was associated with a significantly lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR 0.56, 95% CI: 0.49-0.64) as well as definite stent thrombosis (HR 0.46, 95% CI: 0.35-0.61). Conclusions: The baseline characteristics of the two large registries were different. After statistical adjustment, JC was associated with lower mortality and ST.

Predicting 3-year mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention: updated logistic clinical SYNTAX score based on patient-level data from 7 contemporary stent trials

OBJECTIVES This study aimed to update the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score to predict 3-year survival after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and compare the performance with the SYNTAX score alone. BACKGROUND The SYNTAX score is a well-established angiographic tool to predict long-term outcomes after PCI. The Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score, developed by combining clinical variables with the anatomic SYNTAX score, has been shown to perform better than the SYNTAX score alone in predicting 1-year outcomes after PCI. However, the ability of this score to predict long-term survival is unknown. METHODS Patient-level data (N = 6,304, 399 deaths within 3 years) from 7 contemporary PCI trials were analyzed. We revised the overall risk and the predictor effects in the core model (SYNTAX score, age, creatinine clearance, and left ventricular ejection fraction) using Cox regression analysis to predict mortality at 3 years. We also updated the extended model by combining the core model with additional independent predictors of 3-year mortality (i.e., diabetes mellitus, peripheral vascular disease, and body mass index). RESULTS The revised Logistic Clinical SYNTAX models showed better discriminative ability than the anatomic SYNTAX score for the prediction of 3-year mortality after PCI (c-index: SYNTAX score, 0.61; core model, 0.71; and extended model, 0.73 in a cross-validation procedure). The extended model in particular performed better in differentiating low- and intermediate-risk groups. CONCLUSIONS Risk scores combining clinical characteristics with the anatomic SYNTAX score substantially better predict 3-year mortality than the SYNTAX score alone and should be used for long-term risk stratification of patients undergoing PCI.

A Swiss paradox? Higher income inequality of municipalities is associated with lower mortality in Switzerland.

It has long been surmised that income inequality within a society negatively affects public health. However, more recent studies suggest there is no association, especially when analyzing small areas. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of income inequality on mortality in Switzerland using the Gini index on municipality level. The study population included all individuals >30 years at the 2000 Swiss census (N = 4,689,545) living in 2,740 municipalities with 35.5 million person-years of follow-up and 456,211 deaths over follow-up. Cox proportional hazard regression models were adjusted for age, gender, marital status, nationality, urbanization, and language region. Results were reported as hazard ratios (HR) with 95 % confidence intervals. The mean Gini index across all municipalities was 0.377 (standard deviation 0.062, range 0.202-0.785). Larger cities, high-income municipalities and tourist areas had higher Gini indices. Higher income inequality was consistently associated with lower mortality risk, except for death from external causes. Adjusting for sex, marital status, nationality, urbanization and language region only slightly attenuated effects. In fully adjusted models, hazards of all-cause mortality by increasing Gini index quintile were HR = 0.99 (0.98-1.00), HR = 0.98 (0.97-0.99), HR = 0.95 (0.94-0.96), HR = 0.91 (0.90-0.92) compared to the lowest quintile. The relationship of income inequality with mortality in Switzerland is contradictory to what has been found in other developed high-income countries. Our results challenge current beliefs about the effect of income inequality on mortality on small area level. Further investigation is required to expose the underlying relationship between income inequality and population health.

The impact of prolonged lower limb ischemia on amputation, mortality, and functional status: the FRIENDS registry.

BACKGROUND Peripheral artery disease (PAD) is a major cause of cardiovascular ischemic events and amputation. Knowledge gaps exist in defining and measuring key factors that predict these events. The objective of this study was to assess whether duration of limb ischemia would serve as a major predictor of limb and patient survival. METHODS The FReedom from Ischemic Events: New Dimensions for Survival (FRIENDS) registry enrolled consecutive patients with limb-threatening peripheral artery disease at a single tertiary care hospital. Demographic information, key clinical care time segments, functional status and use of revascularization, and pharmacotherapy data were collected at baseline, and vascular ischemic events, cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality were recorded at 30 days and 1 year. RESULTS A total of 200 patients with median (interquartile range) age of 76 years (65-84 years) were enrolled in the registry. Median duration of limb ischemia was 0.75 days for acute limb ischemia (ALI) and 61 days for chronic critical limb ischemia (CLI). Duration of limb ischemia of <12, 12 to 24, and >24 hours in patients with ALI was associated with much higher rates of first amputation (P = .0002) and worse amputation-free survival (P = .037). No such associations were observed in patients with CLI. CONCLUSIONS For individuals with ischemic symptoms <14 days, prolonged limb ischemia is associated with higher 30-day and 1-year amputation, systemic ischemic event rates, and worse amputation-free survival. No such associations are evident for individuals with chronic CLI. These data imply that prompt diagnosis and revascularization might improve outcomes for patients with ALI.

Evolving biomarkers improve prediction of long-term mortality in patients with stable coronary artery disease: the BIO-VILCAD score.

OBJECTIVE Algorithms to predict the future long-term risk of patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) are rare. The VIenna and Ludwigshafen CAD (VILCAD) risk score was one of the first scores specifically tailored for this clinically important patient population. The aim of this study was to refine risk prediction in stable CAD creating a new prediction model encompassing various pathophysiological pathways. Therefore, we assessed the predictive power of 135 novel biomarkers for long-term mortality in patients with stable CAD. DESIGN, SETTING AND SUBJECTS We included 1275 patients with stable CAD from the LUdwigshafen RIsk and Cardiovascular health study with a median follow-up of 9.8 years to investigate whether the predictive power of the VILCAD score could be improved by the addition of novel biomarkers. Additional biomarkers were selected in a bootstrapping procedure based on Cox regression to determine the most informative predictors of mortality. RESULTS The final multivariable model encompassed nine clinical and biochemical markers: age, sex, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), heart rate, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, cystatin C, renin, 25OH-vitamin D3 and haemoglobin A1c. The extended VILCAD biomarker score achieved a significantly improved C-statistic (0.78 vs. 0.73; P = 0.035) and net reclassification index (14.9%; P < 0.001) compared to the original VILCAD score. Omitting LVEF, which might not be readily measureable in clinical practice, slightly reduced the accuracy of the new BIO-VILCAD score but still significantly improved risk classification (net reclassification improvement 12.5%; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION The VILCAD biomarker score based on routine parameters complemented by novel biomarkers outperforms previous risk algorithms and allows more accurate classification of patients with stable CAD, enabling physicians to choose more personalized treatment regimens for their patients.

Electrolyte disorders and in-hospital mortality during prolonged heat periods: a cross-sectional analysis

BACKGROUND Heat periods during recent years were associated with excess hospitalization and mortality rates, especially in the elderly. We intended to study whether prolonged warmth/heat periods are associated with an increased prevalence of disorders of serum sodium and potassium and an increased hospital mortality. METHODS In this cross-sectional analysis all patients admitted to the Department of Emergency Medicine of a large tertiary care facility between January 2009 and December 2010 with measurements of serum sodium were included. Demographic data along with detailed data on diuretic medication, length of hospital stay and hospital mortality were obtained for all patients. Data on daily temperatures (maximum, mean, minimum) and humidity were retrieved by Meteo Swiss. RESULTS A total of 22.239 patients were included in the study. 5 periods with a temperature exceeding 25 °C for 3 to 5 days were noticed and 2 periods with temperatures exceeding 25 °C for more than 5 days were noted. Additionally, 2 periods with 3 to 5 days with daily temperatures exceeding 30 °C were noted during the study period. We found a significantly increased prevalence of hyponatremia during heat periods. However, in the Cox regression analysis, prolonged heat was not associated with the prevalence of disorders of serum sodium or potassium. Admission during a heat period was an independent predictor for hospital mortality. CONCLUSIONS Although we found an increased prevalence of hyponatremia during heat periods, no convincing connection could be found for hypernatremia or disorders of serum potassium.

The ADO index as a predictor of two-year mortality in general practice-based chronic obstructive pulmonary disease cohorts.

BACKGROUND Existing prediction models for mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients have not yet been validated in primary care, which is where the majority of patients receive care. OBJECTIVES Our aim was to validate the ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction) index as a predictor of 2-year mortality in 2 general practice-based COPD cohorts. METHODS Six hundred and forty-six patients with COPD with GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) stages I-IV were enrolled by their general practitioners and followed for 2 years. The ADO regression equation was used to predict a 2-year risk of all-cause mortality in each patient and this risk was compared with the observed 2-year mortality. Discrimination and calibration were assessed as well as the strength of association between the 15-point ADO score and the observed 2-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS Fifty-two (8.1%) patients died during the 2-year follow-up period. Discrimination with the ADO index was excellent with an area under the curve of 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-0.84]. Overall, the predicted and observed risks matched well and visual inspection revealed no important differences between them across 10 risk classes (p = 0.68). The odds ratio for death per point increase according to the ADO index was 1.50 (95% CI 1.31-1.71). CONCLUSIONS The ADO index showed excellent prediction properties in an out-of-population validation carried out in COPD patients from primary care settings.