Spring-summer temperatures reconstructed for northern Switzerland and southwestern Germany from winter rye harvest dates, 1454–1970

This paper presents a unique 517-yr long documentary data-based reconstruction of spring-summer (MAMJJ) temperatures for northern Switzerland and southwestern Germany from 1454 to 1970. It is composed of 25 partial series of winter grain (secale cereale) harvest starting dates (WGHD) that are partly based on harvest related bookkeeping of institutions (hospitals, municipalities), partly on (early) phenological observations. The resulting main Basel WGHD series was homogenised with regard to dating style, data type and altitude. The calibration and verification approach was applied using the homogenous HISTALP temperature series from 1774–1824 for calibration (r = 0.78) and from 1920–1970 for verification (r = 0.75). The latter result even suffers from the weak data base available for 1870– 1950. Temperature reconstructions based on WGHD are more influenced by spring temperatures than those based on grape harvest dates (GHD), because rye in contrast to vines already begins to grow as soon as sunlight brings the plant to above freezing. The earliest and latest harvest dates were checked for consistency with narrative documentary weather reports. Comparisons with other European documentarybased GHD and WGHD temperature reconstructions generally reveal significant correlations decreasing with the distance from Switzerland. The new Basel WGHD series shows better skills in representing highly climate change sensitive variations of Swiss Alpine glaciers than available GHD series.

Laparoscopic versus open end colostomy closure: a single-center experience

The aim of this study was to review our experience with laparoscopic end colostomy closure. A retrospective review of a prospectively entered database was performed. Proportions and continuous variables were compared using the Fisher's exact and the Mann-Whitney U tests, respectively. Within the study period, 53 patients underwent closure of end colostomies. The main reasons for the colonic resections were perforated diverticulitis (52.7%) and neoplasms (20.8%). In 28 patients (53%), laparoscopic closure (LC) was attempted. Demographics did not differ between the attempted LC and the primary open closure (OC) group. The conversion rate from an LC to an OC was 50 per cent (14 of 28), mostly as a result of adhesions (71.4%). Hospital length of stay (HLOS) was significantly longer for the OC than with the attempted LC group (15.4 ± 11.9 days vs 11.3 ± 8.5 days, P = 0.046). The overall complication rate was not different between the completed LC and the OC groups (43 vs 56%, P = 0.634). The majority of complications detected (91.1%) were minor and could be treated conservatively. The role of laparoscopy to close end colostomies is questionable, because the conversion rate is high. However, a shorter HLOS can be expected when laparoscopy is successful. To reduce morbidity resulting from prolonged operation times, it is crucial to convert early and pre-emptively if hostile adhesions are found.

Understanding measured water rotational temperatures and column densities in the very innermost coma of Comet 73P/Schwassmann–Wachmann 3 B

Direct sublimation of a comet nucleus surface is usually considered to be the main source of gas in the coma of a comet. However, evidence from a number of comets including the recent spectacular images of Comet 103P/Hartley 2 by the EPOXI mission indicates that the nucleus alone may not be responsible for all, or possibly at times even most, of the total amount of gas seen in the coma. Indeed, the sublimation of icy grains, which have been injected into the coma, appears to constitute an important source. We use the fully-kinetic Direct Simulation Monte Carlo model of Tenishev et al. (Tenishev, V.M., Combi, M.R., Davidsson, B. [2008]. Astrophys. J., 685, 659−677; Tenishev, V.M., Combi, M.R., Rubin, M. [2011]. Astrophys. J., 732) to reproduce the measurements of column density and rotational temperature of water in Comet 73P-B/Schwassmann–Wachmann 3 obtained with a very high spatial resolution of ∼30 km using IRCS/Subaru in May 2006 (Bonev, B.P., Mumma, M.J., Kawakita, H., Kobayashi, H., Villanueva, G.L. [2008]. Icarus, 196, 241−248). For gas released solely from the cometary nucleus at a heliocentric distance of 1 AU, modeled rotational temperatures start at 110 K close to the surface and decrease to only several tens of degrees by 10–20 nucleus radii. However, the measured decay of both rotational temperature and column density with distance from the nucleus is much slower than predicted by this simple model. The addition of a substantial (distributed) source of gas from icy grains in the model slows the decay in rotational temperature and provides a more gradual drop in column density profiles. Together with a contribution of rotational heating of water molecules by electrons, the combined effects allow a much better match to the IRCS/Subaru observations. From the spatial distributions of water abundance and temperature measured in 73P/SW3-B, we have identified and quantified multiple mechanisms of release. The application of this tool to other comets may permit such studies over a range of heliocentric and geocentric distances.

Cool Glacial Temperatures and Changes in Moisture Source Recorded in Oman Groundwaters

Concentrations of atmospheric noble gases (neon, argon, krypton, and xenon) dissolved in groundwaters from northern Oman indicate that the average ground temperature during the Late Pleistocene (15,000 to 24,000 years before present) was 6.5° ± 0.6°C lower than that of today. Stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopic groundwater data show that the origin of atmospheric water vapor changed from a primarily southern, Indian Ocean source during the Late Pleistocene to a dominantly northern, Mediterranean source today. The reduced northern water vapor source is consistent with a drier Last Glacial Maximum through much of northern Africa and Arabia.

Younger Dryas and Allerød summer temperatures at Gerzensee (Switzerland) inferred from fossil pollen and cladoceran assemblages

Linear- and unimodal-based inference models for mean summer temperatures (partial least squares, weighted averaging, and weighted averaging partial least squares models) were applied to a high-resolution pollen and cladoceran stratigraphy from Gerzensee, Switzerland. The time-window of investigation included the Allerød, the Younger Dryas, and the Preboreal. Characteristic major and minor oscillations in the oxygen-isotope stratigraphy, such as the Gerzensee oscillation, the onset and end of the Younger Dryas stadial, and the Preboreal oscillation, were identified by isotope analysis of bulk-sediment carbonates of the same core and were used as independent indicators for hemispheric or global scale climatic change. In general, the pollen-inferred mean summer temperature reconstruction using all three inference models follows the oxygen-isotope curve more closely than the cladoceran curve. The cladoceran-inferred reconstruction suggests generally warmer summers than the pollen-based reconstructions, which may be an effect of terrestrial vegetation not being in equilibrium with climate due to migrational lags during the Late Glacial and early Holocene. Allerød summer temperatures range between 11 and 12°C based on pollen, whereas the cladoceran-inferred temperatures lie between 11 and 13°C. Pollen and cladocera-inferred reconstructions both suggest a drop to 9–10°C at the beginning of the Younger Dryas. Although the Allerød–Younger Dryas transition lasted 150–160 years in the oxygen-isotope stratigraphy, the pollen-inferred cooling took 180–190 years and the cladoceran-inferred cooling lasted 250–260 years. The pollen-inferred summer temperature rise to 11.5–12°C at the transition from the Younger Dryas to the Preboreal preceded the oxygen-isotope signal by several decades, whereas the cladoceran-inferred warming lagged. Major discrepancies between the pollen- and cladoceran-inference models are observed for the Preboreal, where the cladoceran-inference model suggests mean summer temperatures of up to 14–15°C. Both pollen- and cladoceran-inferred reconstructions suggest a cooling that may be related to the Gerzensee oscillation, but there is no evidence for a cooling synchronous with the Preboreal oscillation as recorded in the oxygen-isotope record. For the Gerzensee oscillation the inferred cooling was ca. 1 and 0.5°C based on pollen and cladocera, respectively, which lies well within the inherent prediction errors of the inference models.

European summer temperatures since Roman times

The spatial context is critical when assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatio-temporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June–August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951–2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986–2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850–2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. For pan-European temperatures we find slightly better agreement between the reconstruction and the model simulations with high-end estimates for total solar irradiance. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and the Little Ice Age are larger in the reconstructions than the simulations. This may indicate inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity and processes to changes in external forcing on the simulated European climate and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales.

Patent Foramen Ovale Closure in Obstructive Sleep Apnea Improves Blood Pressure and Cardiovascular Function.

UNLABELLED Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a frequent syndrome characterized by intermittent hypoxemia and increased prevalence of arterial hypertension and cardiovascular morbidity. In OSA, the presence of patent foramen ovale (PFO) is associated with increased number of apneas and more severe oxygen desaturation. We hypothesized that PFO closure improves sleep-disordered breathing and, in turn, has favorable effects on vascular function and arterial blood pressure. In 40 consecutive patients with newly diagnosed OSA, we searched for PFO. After initial cardiovascular assessment, the 14 patients with PFO underwent initial device closure and the 26 without PFO served as control group. Conventional treatment for OSA was postponed for 3 months in both groups, and polysomnographic and cardiovascular examinations were repeated at the end of the follow-up period. PFO closure significantly improved the apnea-hypopnea index (ΔAHI -7.9±10.4 versus +4.7±13.1 events/h, P=0.0009, PFO closure versus control), the oxygen desaturation index (ΔODI -7.6±16.6 versus +7.6±17.0 events/h, P=0.01), and the number of patients with severe OSA decreased significantly after PFO closure (79% versus 21%, P=0.007). The following cardiovascular parameters improved significantly in the PFO closure group, although remained unchanged in controls: brachial artery flow-mediated vasodilation, carotid artery stiffness, nocturnal systolic and diastolic blood pressure (-7 mm Hg, P=0.009 and -3 mm Hg, P=0.04, respectively), blood pressure dipping, and left ventricular diastolic function. In conclusion, PFO closure in OSA patients improves sleep-disordered breathing and nocturnal oxygenation. This translates into an improvement of endothelial function and vascular stiffening, a decrease of nighttime blood pressure, restoration of the dipping pattern, and improvement of left ventricular diastolic function. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01780207.

Does Full Wound Rupture following Median Pilonidal Closure Alter Long-Term Recurrence Rate?

OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study was to examine the recurrence rate of wound rupture in primary pilonidal sinus disease (PSD) after median closure. SUBJECTS AND METHODS A total of 583 patients from the German military cohort were interviewed. We compared the choice of surgical therapy, wound dehiscence (if present) and long-term recurrence-free survival for patients with primary open treatment, marsupialization and primary median treatment (closed vs. secondary open, respectively). Actuarial recurrence rate was determined using the Kaplan-Meier calculation with a follow-up of up to 20 years after primary PSD surgery. RESULTS Patients with excision followed by primary open wound treatment showed a significantly lower 5- than 10-year recurrence rate (8.3 vs. 11.2%) compared to the patients with primary midline closure (17.4 vs. 20.5%, p = 0.03). The 20-year recurrence rate was 28% in primary open wound treatment versus 44% in primary midline closure without wound rupture. In contrast to these findings, long-term recurrence rates following secondary open wound treatment (12.2% at 5 years vs. 17.1% at 10 years) tended to be higher (although not significantly, p = 0.57) compared to primary open treatment (8.3% at 5 years vs. 11.2% at 10 years). There was no statistical difference in long-term recurrence rates between secondary open and primary midline closure (p = 0.7). Hence, despite only a short wound closure time experienced before wound rupture, the patient does not fully benefit from an open wound treatment in terms of recurrence rate. CONCLUSION The postoperative pilonidal sinus wound rupture of primary midline closures did not significantly increase the 5- and 10-year long-term recurrence rates compared to uneventfully healing primary midline closures.

Local Heat Application for the Treatment of Buruli Ulcer: Results of a Phase II Open Label Single Center Non Comparative Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND Buruli ulcer (BU) is a necrotizing skin disease most prevalent among West African children. The causative organism, Mycobacterium ulcerans, is sensitive to temperatures above 37°C. We investigated the safety and efficacy of a local heat application device based on phase change material. METHODS In a phase II open label single center noncomparative clinical trial (ISRCTN 72102977) under GCP standards in Cameroon, laboratory confirmed BU patients received up to 8 weeks of heat treatment. We assessed efficacy based on the endpoints 'absence of clinical BU specific features' or 'wound closure' within 6 months ("primary cure"), and 'absence of clinical recurrence within 24 month' ("definite cure"). RESULTS Of 53 patients 51 (96%) had ulcerative disease. 62% were classified as World Health Organization category II, 19% each as category I and III. The average lesion size was 45 cm(2). Within 6 months after completion of heat treatment 92.4% (49 of 53, 95% confidence interval [CI], 81.8% to 98.0%) achieved cure of their primary lesion. At 24 months follow-up 83.7% (41 of 49, 95% CI, 70.3% to 92.7%) of patients with primary cure remained free of recurrence. Heat treatment was well tolerated; adverse effects were occasional mild local skin reactions. CONCLUSIONS Local thermotherapy is a highly effective, simple, cheap and safe treatment for M. ulcerans disease. It has in particular potential as home-based remedy for BU suspicious lesions at community level where laboratory confirmation is not available. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION ISRCT 72102977.