Predicting the onset of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk: practical guide to probabilistic prognostic reasoning

Prediction of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk (CHR) has become a mainstream focus of clinical and research interest worldwide. When using CHR instruments for clinical purposes, the predicted outcome is but only a probability; and, consequently, any therapeutic action following the assessment is based on probabilistic prognostic reasoning. Yet, probabilistic reasoning makes considerable demands on the clinicians. We provide here a scholarly practical guide summarising the key concepts to support clinicians with probabilistic prognostic reasoning in the CHR state. We review risk or cumulative incidence of psychosis in, person-time rate of psychosis, Kaplan-Meier estimates of psychosis risk, measures of prognostic accuracy, sensitivity and specificity in receiver operator characteristic curves, positive and negative predictive values, Bayes’ theorem, likelihood ratios, potentials and limits of real-life applications of prognostic probabilistic reasoning in the CHR state. Understanding basic measures used for prognostic probabilistic reasoning is a prerequisite for successfully implementing the early detection and prevention of psychosis in clinical practice. Future refinement of these measures for CHR patients may actually influence risk management, especially as regards initiating or withholding treatment.

The pulmonary blood-gas barrier in the avian embryo: inauguration, development and refinement

In vertebrates, efficient gas exchange depends primarily on establishment of a thin blood-gas barrier (BGB). The primordial air conduits of the developing avian lung are lined with a cuboidal epithelium that is ultimately converted to a squamous one that participates in the formation of the BGB. In the early stages, cells form intraluminal protrusions (aposomes) then transcellular double membranes separating the aposome from the basal part of the cell establish, unzip and sever the aposome from the cell. Additionally, better endowed cells squeeze out adjacent cells or such cells constrict spontaneously thus extruding the squeezed out aposome. Formation of vesicles or vacuoles below the aposome and fusion of such cavities with their neighboring cognates results in severing of the aposome. Augmentation of cavities and their subsequent fusion with the apical plasma membranes results in formation of numerous microfolds separating concavities on the apical part of the cell. Abscission of such microfolds results in a smooth squamous epithelium just before hatching.

Pancuronium dose refinement in experimental pigs used in cardiovascular research

To quantify the dose of pancuronium required to obtain moderate neuromuscular blockade as monitored by acceleromyography (NMB(mod) : train-of-four count of ≤2) as a part of a balanced anaesthetic protocol in pigs used in cardiovascular research.

Compositional protein analysis of high density lipoproteins in hypercholesterolemia by shotgun LC-MS/MS and probabilistic peptide scoring

A protein of a biological sample is usually quantified by immunological techniques based on antibodies. Mass spectrometry offers alternative approaches that are not dependent on antibody affinity and avidity, protein isoforms, quaternary structures, or steric hindrance of antibody-antigen recognition in case of multiprotein complexes. One approach is the use of stable isotope-labeled internal standards; another is the direct exploitation of mass spectrometric signals recorded by LC-MS/MS analysis of protein digests. Here we assessed the peptide match score summation index based on probabilistic peptide scores calculated by the PHENYX protein identification engine for absolute protein quantification in accordance with the protein abundance index as proposed by Mann and co-workers (Rappsilber, J., Ryder, U., Lamond, A. I., and Mann, M. (2002) Large-scale proteomic analysis of the human spliceosome. Genome Res. 12, 1231-1245). Using synthetic protein mixtures, we demonstrated that this approach works well, although proteins can have different response factors. Applied to high density lipoproteins (HDLs), this new approach compared favorably to alternative protein quantitation methods like UV detection of protein peaks separated by capillary electrophoresis or quantitation of protein spots on SDS-PAGE. We compared the protein composition of a well defined HDL density class isolated from plasma of seven hypercholesterolemia subjects having low or high HDL cholesterol with HDL from nine normolipidemia subjects. The quantitative protein patterns distinguished individuals according to the corresponding concentration and distribution of cholesterol from serum lipid measurements of the same samples and revealed that hypercholesterolemia in unrelated individuals is the result of different deficiencies. The presented approach is complementary to HDL lipid analysis; does not rely on complicated sample treatment, e.g. chemical reactions, or antibodies; and can be used for projective clinical studies of larger patient groups.