Three “Bali Deliverables” for more Food Security

As the clock is ticking for a positive outcome at the Ninth WTO Ministerial Conference to be held in Bali in December 2013, agricultural negotiators are scrambling to find solutions to issues such as tariff-rate quota (TRQ) administration and export competition in order to improve trade flows. The main issue seems to be whether WTO rules applying to public stockpiles in developing countries need to be changed or temporarily suspended as a means to enhance national food security. This paper is based on a note submitted to the ICTSD-IPC Expert Group “Meeting on Agriculture and Food Security – Policy Options for MC9 and beyond” (Geneva, June 2013). It lists the policy instruments impacting on global, national and (urban and rural) household food security – “The Food Security Tool Box” – and asks which immediate decisions the WTO Ministers might take in this field despite the political difficulties such as continued agro-dumping practices or the “land grab” issue. Three such “deliverables” are outlined: (i) regional and “virtual” food security schemes could be allowed to provide reserves to other countries without violating the obligation to “form an integral part of a food security programme identified in national legislation” (Agreement on Agriculture, Annex II, para 3); (ii) TRQ under-fills could be improved by mandatory enquiries into low fill rate situations; and (iii) World Food Program (WFP) and other non-commercial food purchases could be exempted from export restrictions and prohibitions. High ambitions for Bali seem to be misplaced. A more realistic yet real progress could restore the dwindling credibility of the WTO as a forum for trade negotiations.

Corporate aging and investment decisions

Paper I: Corporate aging and internal resource allocation Abstract Various observers argue that established firms are at a disadvantage in pursuing new growth opportunities. In this paper, we provide systematic evidence that established firms allocate fewer resources to high-growth lines of business. However, we find no evidence of inefficient resource allocation in established firms. Redirecting resources from high-growth to low-growth lines of business does not result in lower profitability. Also, resource allocation towards new growth opportunities does not increase when managers of established firms are exposed to takeover and product market threats. Rather, it seems that conservative resource allocation strategies are driven by pressures to meet investors’ expectations. Our empirical evidence, thus, favors the hypothesis that established firms wisely choose to allocate fewer resources to new growth opportunities as external pressures force them to focus on efficiency rather than novelty (Holmström 1989). Paper II: Corporate aging and asset sales Abstract This paper asks whether divestitures are motivated by strategic considerations about the scope of the firm’s activities. Limited managerial capacity implies that exploiting core competences becomes comparatively more attractive than exploring new growth opportunities as firms mature. Divestitures help stablished firms free management time and increase the focus on core competences. The testable implication of this attention hypothesis is that established firms are the main sellers of assets, that their divestiture activity increases when managerial capacity is scarcer, that they sell non-core activities, and that they return the divestiture proceeds to the providers of capital instead of reinvesting them in the firm. We find strong empirical support for these predictions. Paper III: Corporate aging and lobbying expenditures Abstract Creative destruction forces constantly challenge established firms, especially in competitive markets. This paper asks whether corporate lobbying is a competitive weapon of established firms to counteract the decline in rents over time. We find a statistically and economically significant positive relation between firm age and lobbying expenditures. Moreover, the documented age-effect is weaker when firms have unique products or operate in concentrated product markets. To address endogeneity, we use industry distress as an exogenous nonlegislative shock to future rents and show that established firms are relatively more likely to lobby when in distress. Finally, we provide empirical evidence that corporate lobbying efforts by established firms forestall the creative destruction process. In sum, our findings suggest that corporate lobbying is a competitive weapon of established firms to retain profitability in competitive environments.

Eosinophilic esophagitis is characterized by a non-IgE-mediated food hypersensitivity.

Eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) is a chronic disease characterized clinically by symptoms of esophageal dysfunction and histologically by eosinophil-predominant inflammation. EoE is frequently associated with concomitant atopic diseases and immunoglobulin E (IgE) sensitization to food allergens in children as well as to aeroallergens and cross-reactive plant allergen components in adults. Patients with EoE respond well to elemental and empirical food elimination diets. Recent research has, however, indicated that the pathogenesis of EoE is distinct from IgE-mediated food allergy. In this review, we discuss the individual roles of epithelial barrier defects, dysregulated innate and adaptive immune responses, and of microbiota in the pathogenesis of EoE. Although food has been recognized as a trigger factor of EoE, the mechanism by which it initiates or facilitates eosinophilic inflammation appears to be largely independent of IgE and needs to be further investigated. Understanding the pathogenic role of food in EoE is a prerequisite for the development of specific diagnostic tools and targeted therapeutic procedures. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Strengthening the food systems governance evidence base: Supporting commensurability of research through a systematic review of methods

Governance of food systems is a poorly understood determinant of food security. Much scholarship on food systems governance is non-empirical, while existing research is often case study-based and theoretically and methodologically incommensurable. This frustrates aggregation of evidence and generalisation. We undertook a systematic review of methods used in food systems governance research with a view to identifying a core set of indicators for future research. We gathered literature through a structured consultation and sampling from recent reviews. Indicators were identified and classified according to the levels and sectors they investigate. We found a concentration of indicators in food production at local to national levels and a sparseness in distribution and consumption. Unsurprisingly, many indicators of institutional structure were found, while agency-related indicators are moderately represented. We call for piloting and validation of these indicators and for methodological development to fill gaps identified. These efforts are expected to support a more consolidated future evidence base and eventual meta-analysis.

Efficacy of experimental treatments compared with standard treatments in non-inferiority trials: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

Background There is concern that non-inferiority trials might be deliberately designed to conceal that a new treatment is less effective than a standard treatment. In order to test this hypothesis we performed a meta-analysis of non-inferiority trials to assess the average effect of experimental treatments compared with standard treatments. Methods One hundred and seventy non-inferiority treatment trials published in 121 core clinical journals were included. The trials were identified through a search of PubMed (1991 to 20 February 2009). Combined relative risk (RR) from meta-analysis comparing experimental with standard treatments was the main outcome measure. Results The 170 trials contributed a total of 175 independent comparisons of experimental with standard treatments. The combined RR for all 175 comparisons was 0.994 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.978–1.010] using a random-effects model and 1.002 (95% CI 0.996–1.008) using a fixed-effects model. Of the 175 comparisons, experimental treatment was considered to be non-inferior in 130 (74%). The combined RR for these 130 comparisons was 0.995 (95% CI 0.983–1.006) and the point estimate favoured the experimental treatment in 58% (n = 76) and standard treatment in 42% (n = 54). The median non-inferiority margin (RR) pre-specified by trialists was 1.31 [inter-quartile range (IQR) 1.18–1.59]. Conclusion In this meta-analysis of non-inferiority trials the average RR comparing experimental with standard treatments was close to 1. The experimental treatments that gain a verdict of non-inferiority in published trials do not appear to be systematically less effective than the standard treatments. Importantly, publication bias and bias in the design and reporting of the studies cannot be ruled out and may have skewed the study results in favour of the experimental treatments. Further studies are required to examine the importance of such bias.

Cardiovascular safety of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs: network meta-analysis

Objective To analyse the available evidence on cardiovascular safety of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. Design Network meta-analysis. Data sources Bibliographic databases, conference proceedings, study registers, the Food and Drug Administration website, reference lists of relevant articles, and reports citing relevant articles through the Science Citation Index (last update July 2009). Manufacturers of celecoxib and lumiracoxib provided additional data. Study selection All large scale randomised controlled trials comparing any non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug with other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs or placebo. Two investigators independently assessed eligibility. Data extraction The primary outcome was myocardial infarction. Secondary outcomes included stroke, death from cardiovascular disease, and death from any cause. Two investigators independently extracted data. Data synthesis 31 trials in 116 429 patients with more than 115 000 patient years of follow-up were included. Patients were allocated to naproxen, ibuprofen, diclofenac, celecoxib, etoricoxib, rofecoxib, lumiracoxib, or placebo. Compared with placebo, rofecoxib was associated with the highest risk of myocardial infarction (rate ratio 2.12, 95% credibility interval 1.26 to 3.56), followed by lumiracoxib (2.00, 0.71 to 6.21). Ibuprofen was associated with the highest risk of stroke (3.36, 1.00 to 11.6), followed by diclofenac (2.86, 1.09 to 8.36). Etoricoxib (4.07, 1.23 to 15.7) and diclofenac (3.98, 1.48 to 12.7) were associated with the highest risk of cardiovascular death. Conclusions Although uncertainty remains, little evidence exists to suggest that any of the investigated drugs are safe in cardiovascular terms. Naproxen seemed least harmful. Cardiovascular risk needs to be taken into account when prescribing any non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug.

Vaccination with the recombinant chimeric antigen recNcMIC3-1-R induces a non-protective Th2-type immune response in the pregnant mouse model for N. caninum infection

The major route of transmission of Neospora caninum in cattle is transplacentally from an infected cow to its progeny. Therefore, a vaccine should be able to prevent both the horizontal transmission from contaminated food or water and the vertical transmission. We have previously shown that a chimeric vaccine composed of predicted immunogenic epitopes of NcMIC3, NcMIC1 and NcROP2 (recNcMIC3-1-R) significantly reduced the cerebral infection in BALB/c mice. In this study, mice were first vaccinated, then mated and pregnant mice were challenged with 2×10(6)N. caninum tachyzoites at day 7-9 of pregnancy. Partial protection was only observed in the mice vaccinated with a tachyzoite crude protein extract but no protection against vertical transmission or cerebral infection in the dams was observed in the group vaccinated with recNcMIC3-1-R. Serological and cytokine analysis showed an overall lower cytokine level in sera associated with a dominant IL-4 expression and high IgG1 titers. Thus, the Th2-type immune response observed in the pregnant mice was not protective against experimental neosporosis, in contrary to the mixed Th1-/Th2-type immune response observed in the non-pregnant mouse model. These results demonstrate that the immunomodulation that occurs during pregnancy was not favorable for the protection against N. caninum infection conferred by vaccination with recNcMIC3-1-R.

Centennial mineral dust variability in high-resolution ice core data from Dome C, Antarctica

Ice core data from Antarctica provide detailed insights into the characteristics of past climate, atmospheric circulation, as well as changes in the aerosol load of the atmosphere. We present high-resolution records of soluble calcium (Ca2+), non-sea-salt soluble calcium (nssCa2+), and particulate mineral dust aerosol from the East Antarctic Plateau at a depth resolution of 1 cm, spanning the past 800 000 years. Despite the fact that all three parameters are largely dust-derived, the ratio of nssCa2+ to particulate dust is dependent on the particulate dust concentration itself. We used principal component analysis to extract the joint climatic signal and produce a common high-resolution record of dust flux. This new record is used to identify Antarctic warming events during the past eight glacial periods. The phasing of dust flux and CO2 changes during glacial-interglacial transitions reveals that iron fertilization of the Southern Ocean during the past nine glacial terminations was not the dominant factor in the deglacial rise of CO2 concentrations. Rapid changes in dust flux during glacial terminations and Antarctic warming events point to a rapid response of the southern westerly wind belt in the region of southern South American dust sources on changing climate conditions. The clear lead of these dust changes on temperature rise suggests that an atmospheric reorganization occurred in the Southern Hemisphere before the Southern Ocean warmed significantly.

Hepatitis C virus and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma: Findings from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

Infections with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and, possibly, hepatitis B virus (HBV) are associated with an increased risk of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) in the general population, but little information is available on the relationship between hepatitis viruses and NHL among people with HIV (PHIV). We conducted a matched case-control study nested in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). Two hundred and ninety-eight NHL cases and 889 control subjects were matched by SHCS centre, gender, age group, CD4+ count at enrollment, and length of follow-up. Odds ratios (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were computed using logistic regression to evaluate the association between NHL and seropositivity for antibodies against HCV (anti-HCV) and hepatitis B core antigen (anti-HBc), and for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). Anti-HCV was not associated with increased NHL risk overall (OR = 1.05; 95% CI: 0.63-1.75), or in different strata of CD4+ count, age or gender. Only among men having sex with men was an association with anti-HCV found (OR = 2.37; 95% CI: 1.03-5.43). No relationships between NHL risk and anti-HBc or HBsAg emerged. Coinfection with HIV and HCV or HBV did not increase NHL risk compared to HIV alone in the SHCS.

The Southern Hemisphere at glacial terminations: insights from the Dome C ice core

The many different proxy records from the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) Dome C ice core allow for the first time a comparison of nine glacial terminations in great detail. Despite the fact that all terminations cover the transition from a glacial maximum into an interglacial, there are large differences between single terminations. For some terminations, Antarctic temperature increased only moderately, while for others, the amplitude of change at the termination was much larger. For the different terminations, the rate of change in temperature is more similar than the magnitude or duration of change. These temperature changes were accompanied by vast changes in dust and sea salt deposition all over Antarctica. Here we investigate the phasing between a South American dust proxy (non-sea-salt calcium flux, nssCa2+), a sea ice proxy (sea salt sodium flux, ssNa+) and a proxy for Antarctic temperature (deuterium, δD). In particular, we look into whether a similar sequence of events applies to all terminations, despite their different characteristics. All proxies are derived from the EPICA Dome C ice core, resulting in a relative dating uncertainty between the proxies of less than 20 years. At the start of the terminations, the temperature (δD) increase and dust (nssCa2+ flux) decrease start synchronously. The sea ice proxy (ssNa+ flux), however, only changes once the temperature has reached a particular threshold, approximately 5°C below present day temperatures (corresponding to a δD value of −420‰). This reflects to a large extent the limited sensitivity of the sea ice proxy during very cold periods with large sea ice extent. At terminations where this threshold is not reached (TVI, TVIII), ssNa+ flux shows no changes. Above this threshold, the sea ice proxy is closely coupled to the Antarctic temperature, and interglacial levels are reached at the same time for both ssNa+ and δD. On the other hand, once another threshold at approximately 2°C below present day temperature is passed (corresponding to a δD value of −402‰), nssCa2+ flux has reached interglacial levels and does not change any more, despite further warming. This threshold behaviour most likely results from a combination of changes to the threshold friction velocity for dust entrainment and to the distribution of surface wind speeds in the dust source region.

Experimental characterization of cement–bentonite interaction using core infiltration techniques and 4D computed tomography

Deep geological storage of radioactive waste foresees cementitious materials as reinforcement of tunnels and as backfill. Bentonite is proposed to enclose spent fuel drums, and as drift seals. The emplacement of cementitious material next to clay material generates an enormous chemical gradient in pore water composition that drives diffusive solute transport. Laboratory studies and reactive transport modeling predict significant mineral alteration at and near interfaces, mainly resulting in a decrease of porosity in bentonite. The goal of this project is to characterize and quantify the cement/bentonite skin effects spatially and temporally in laboratory experiments. A newly developed mobile X-ray transparent core infiltration device was used, which allows performing X-ray computed tomography (CT) periodically without interrupting a running experiment. A pre-saturated cylindrical MX-80 bentonite sample (1920 kg/m3 average wet density) is subjected to a confining pressure as a constant total pressure boundary condition. The infiltration of a hyperalkaline (pH 13.4), artificial OPC (ordinary Portland cement) pore water into the bentonite plug alters the mineral assemblage over time as an advancing reaction front. The related changes in X-ray attenuation values are related to changes in phase densities, porosity and local bulk density and are tracked over time periodically by non-destructive CT scans.

International palliative care experts' view on phenomena indicating the last hours and days of life

BACKGROUND Providing the highest quality care for dying patients should be a core clinical proficiency and an integral part of comprehensive management, as fundamental as diagnosis and treatment. The aim of this study was to provide expert consensus on phenomena for identification and prediction of the last hours or days of a patient's life. This study is part of the OPCARE9 project, funded by the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme. METHOD The phenomena associated with approaching death were generated using Delphi technique. The Delphi process was set up in three cycles to collate a set of useful and relevant phenomena that identify and predict the last hours and days of life. Each cycle included: (1) development of the questionnaire, (2) distribution of the Delphi questionnaire and (3) review and synthesis of findings. RESULTS The first Delphi cycle of 252 participants (health care professionals, volunteers, public) generated 194 different phenomena, perceptions and observations. In the second cycle, these phenomena were checked for their specific ability to diagnose the last hours/days of life. Fifty-eight phenomena achieved more than 80% expert consensus and were grouped into nine categories. In the third cycle, these 58 phenomena were ranked by a group of palliative care experts (78 professionals, including physicians, nurses, psycho-social-spiritual support; response rate 72%, see Table 1) in terms of clinical relevance to the prediction that a person will die within the next few hours/days. Twenty-one phenomena were determined to have "high relevance" by more than 50% of the experts. Based on these findings, the changes in the following categories (each consisting of up to three phenomena) were considered highly relevant to clinicians in identifying and predicting a patient's last hours/days of life: "breathing", "general deterioration", "consciousness/cognition", "skin", "intake of fluid, food, others", "emotional state" and "non-observations/expressed opinions/other". CONCLUSION Experts from different professional backgrounds identified a set of categories describing a structure within which clinical phenomena can be clinically assessed, in order to more accurately predict whether someone will die within the next days or hours. However, these phenomena need further specification for clinical use.

Ultrasound-assessed non-culprit and culprit coronary vessels differ by age and gender

AIM To investigate age- and gender-related differences in non-culprit versus culprit coronary vessels assessed with virtual histology intravascular ultrasound (VH-IVUS). METHODS In 390 patients referred for coronary angiography to a single center (Luzerner Kantonsspital, Switzerland) between May 2007 and January 2011, 691 proximal vessel segments in left anterior descending, circumflex and/or right coronary arteries were imaged by VH-IVUS. Plaque burden and plaque composition (fibrous, fibro-fatty, necrotic core and dense calcium volumes) were analyzed in 3 age tertiles, according to gender and separated for vessels containing non-culprit or culprit lesions. To classify as vessel containing a culprit lesion, the patient had to present with an acute coronary syndrome, and the VH-IVUS had to be performed in a vessel segment containing the culprit lesion according to conventional coronary angiography. RESULTS In non-culprit vessels the plaque burden increased significantly with aging (in men from 37% ± 12% in the lowest to 46% ± 10% in the highest age tertile, P < 0.001; in women from 30% ± 9% to 40% ± 11%, P < 0.001); men had higher plaque burden than women at any age (P < 0.001 for each of the 3 age tertiles). In culprit vessels of the lowest age tertile, plaque burden was significantly higher than that in non-culprit vessels (in men 48% ± 6%, P < 0.001 as compared to non-culprit vessels; in women 44% ± 18%, P = 0.004 as compared to non-culprit vessels). Plaque burden of culprit vessels did not significantly change during aging (plaque burden in men of the highest age tertile 51% ± 9%, P = 0.523 as compared to lowest age tertile; in women of the highest age tertile 49% ± 8%, P = 0.449 as compared to lowest age tertile). In men, plaque morphology of culprit vessels became increasingly rupture-prone during aging (increasing percentages of necrotic core and dense calcium), whereas plaque morphology in non-culprit vessels was less rupture-prone and remained constant during aging. In women, necrotic core in non-culprit vessels was very low at young age, but increased during aging resulting in a plaque morphology that was very similar to men. Plaque morphology in culprit vessels of young women and men was similar. CONCLUSION This study provides evidence that age- and gender-related differences in plaque burden and plaque composition significantly depend on whether the vessel contained a non-culprit or culprit lesion.

High-resolution mineral dust and sea ice proxy records from the Talos Dome ice core

In this study we report on new non-sea salt calcium (nssCa2+, mineral dust proxy) and sea salt sodium (ssNa+, sea ice proxy) records along the East Antarctic Talos Dome deep ice core in centennial resolution reaching back 150 thousand years (ka) before present. During glacial conditions nssCa2+ fluxes in Talos Dome are strongly related to temperature as has been observed before in other deep Antarctic ice core records, and has been associated with synchronous changes in the main source region (southern South America) during climate variations in the last glacial. However, during warmer climate conditions Talos Dome mineral dust input is clearly elevated compared to other records mainly due to the contribution of additional local dust sources in the Ross Sea area. Based on a simple transport model, we compare nssCa2+ fluxes of different East Antarctic ice cores. From this multi-site comparison we conclude that changes in transport efficiency or atmospheric lifetime of dust particles do have a minor effect compared to source strength changes on the large-scale concentration changes observed in Antarctic ice cores during climate variations of the past 150 ka. Our transport model applied on ice core data is further validated by climate model data. The availability of multiple East Antarctic nssCa2+ records also allows for a revision of a former estimate on the atmospheric CO2 sensitivity to reduced dust induced iron fertilisation in the Southern Ocean during the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene (T1). While a former estimate based on the EPICA Dome C (EDC) record only suggested 20 ppm, we find that reduced dust induced iron fertilisation in the Southern Ocean may be responsible for up to 40 ppm of the total atmospheric CO2 increase during T1. During the last interglacial, ssNa+ levels of EDC and EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML) are only half of the Holocene levels, in line with higher temperatures during that period, indicating much reduced sea ice extent in the Atlantic as well as the Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean. In contrast, Holocene ssNa+ flux in Talos Dome is about the same as during the last interglacial, indicating that there was similar ice cover present in the Ross Sea area during MIS 5.5 as during the Holocene.

The long non-coding RNA NEAT1 is increased in IUGR placentas, leading to potential new hypotheses of IUGR origin/development.

INTRODUCTION Intrauterine Growth Restriction (IUGR) is a multifactorial disease defined by an inability of the fetus to reach its growth potential. IUGR not only increases the risk of neonatal mortality/morbidity, but also the risk of metabolic syndrome during adulthood. Certain placental proteins have been shown to be implicated in IUGR development, such as proteins from the GH/IGF axis and angiogenesis/apoptosis processes. METHODS Twelve patients with term IUGR pregnancy (birth weight < 10th percentile) and 12 CTRLs were included. mRNA was extracted from the fetal part of the placenta and submitted to a subtraction method (Clontech PCR-Select cDNA Subtraction). RESULTS One candidate gene identified was the long non-coding RNA NEAT1 (nuclear paraspeckle assembly transcript 1). NEAT1 is the core component of a subnuclear structure called paraspeckle. This structure is responsible for the retention of hyperedited mRNAs in the nucleus. Overall, NEAT1 mRNA expression was 4.14 (±1.16)-fold increased in IUGR vs. CTRL placentas (P = 0.009). NEAT1 was exclusively localized in the nuclei of the villous trophoblasts and was expressed in more nuclei and with greater intensity in IUGR placentas than in CTRLs. PSPC1, one of the three main proteins of the paraspeckle, co-localized with NEAT1 in the villous trophoblasts. The expression of NEAT1_2 mRNA, the long isoform of NEAT1, was only modestly increased in IUGR vs. CTRL placentas. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION The increase in NEAT1 and its co-localization with PSPC1 suggests an increase in paraspeckles in IUGR villous trophoblasts. This could lead to an increased retention of important mRNAs in villous trophoblasts nuclei. Given that the villous trophoblasts are crucial for the barrier function of the placenta, this could in part explain placental dysfunction in idiopathic IUGR fetuses.