Ecosystem functions are resistant to extreme changes to rainfall regimes in a mesotrophic grassland

Major changes to rainfall regimes are predicted for the future but the effect of such changes on terrestrial ecosystem function is largely unknown. We created a rainfall manipulation experiment to investigate the effects of extreme changes in rainfall regimes on ecosystem functioning in a grassland system. We applied two rainfall regimes; a prolonged drought treatment (30 % reduction over spring and summer) and drought/downpour treatment (long periods of no rainfall interspersed with downpours), with an ambient control. Both rainfall manipulations included increased winter rainfall. We measured plant community composition, CO2 fluxes and soil nutrient availability. Plant species richness and cover were lower in the drought/downpour treatment, and showed little recovery after the treatment ceased. Ecosystem processes were less affected, possibly due to winter rainfall additions buffering reduced summer rainfall, which saw relatively small soil moisture changes. However, soil extractable P and ecosystem respiration were significantly higher in rainfall change treatments than in the control. This grassland appears fairly resistant, in the short term, to even the more extreme rainfall changes that are predicted for the region, although prolonged study is needed to measure longer-term impacts. Differences in ecosystem responses between the two treatments emphasise the variety of ecosystem responses to changes in both the size and frequency of rainfall events. Given that model predictions are inconsistent there is therefore a need to assess ecosystem function under a range of potential climate change scenarios.

Trends in mean and extreme precipitation in the Mount Kenya region from observations and reanalyses

Land and water management in semi-arid regions requires detailed information on precipitation distribution, including extremes, and changes therein. Such information is often lacking. This paper describes statistics of mean and extreme precipitation in a unique data set from the Mount Kenya region, encompassing around 50 stations with at least 30 years of data. We describe the data set, including quality control procedures and statistical break detection. Trends in mean precipitation and extreme indices calculated from these data for individual rainy seasons are compared with corresponding trends in reanalysis products. From 1979 to 2011, mean precipitation decreased at 75% of the stations during the ‘long rains’ (March to May) and increased at 70% of the stations during the ‘short rains’ (October to December). Corresponding trends are found in the number of heavy precipitation days, and maximum of consecutive 5-day precipitation. Conversely, an increase in consecutive dry days within both main rainy seasons is found. However, trends are only statistically significant in very few cases. Reanalysis data sets agree with observations with respect to interannual variability, while correlations are considerably lower for monthly deviations (ratios) from the mean annual cycle. While some products well reproduce the rainfall climatology and some the spatial trend pattern, no product reproduces both.

Characterisation of extreme winter precipitation in Mediterranean coastal sites and associated anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns

We present an analysis of daily extreme precipitation events for the extended winter season (October–March) at 20 Mediterranean coastal sites covering the period 1950–2006. The heavy tailed behaviour of precipitation extremes and estimated return levels, including associated uncertainties, are derived applying a procedure based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, in combination with recently developed methods. Precipitation extremes have an important contribution to make seasonal totals (approximately 60% for all series). Three stations (one in the western Mediterranean and the others in the eastern basin) have a 5-year return level above 100 mm, while the lowest value (estimated for two Italian series) is equal to 58 mm. As for the 50-year return level, an Italian station (Genoa) has the highest value of 264 mm, while the other values range from 82 to 200 mm. Furthermore, six series (from stations located in France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus) show a significant negative tendency in the probability of observing an extreme event. The relationship between extreme precipitation events and the large scale atmospheric circulation at the upper, mid and low troposphere is investigated by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A 2-step classification procedure identifies three significant anomaly patterns both for the western-central and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. In the western Mediterranean, the anomalous southwesterly surface to mid-tropospheric flow is connected with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic. During ≥5-year return level events, the subtropical jet stream axis is aligned with the African coastline and interacts with the eddy-driven jet stream. This is connected with enhanced large scale ascending motions, instability and leads to the development of severe precipitation events. For the eastern Mediterranean extreme precipitation events, the identified anomaly patterns suggest warm air advection connected with anomalous ascent motions and an increase of the low- to mid-tropospheric moisture. Furthermore, the jet stream position (during ≥5-year return level events) supports the eastern basin being in a divergence area, where ascent motions are favoured. Our results contribute to an improved understanding of daily precipitation extremes in the cold season and associated large scale atmospheric features.

Comparative transcriptomics of extreme phenotypes of human HIV-1 infection and SIV infection in sooty mangabey and rhesus macaque

High levels of HIV-1 replication during the chronic phase of infection usually correlate with rapid progression to severe immunodeficiency. However, a minority of highly viremic individuals remains asymptomatic and maintains high CD4⁺ T cell counts. This tolerant profile is poorly understood and reminiscent of the widely studied nonprogressive disease model of SIV infection in natural hosts. Here, we identify transcriptome differences between rapid progressors (RPs) and viremic nonprogressors (VNPs) and highlight several genes relevant for the understanding of HIV-1-induced immunosuppression. RPs were characterized by a specific transcriptome profile of CD4⁺ and CD8⁺ T cells similar to that observed in pathogenic SIV-infected rhesus macaques. In contrast, VNPs exhibited lower expression of interferon-stimulated genes and shared a common gene regulation profile with nonpathogenic SIV-infected sooty mangabeys. A short list of genes associated with VNP, including CASP1, CD38, LAG3, TNFSF13B, SOCS1, and EEF1D, showed significant correlation with time to disease progression when evaluated in an independent set of CD4⁺ T cell expression data. This work characterizes 2 minimally studied clinical patterns of progression to AIDS, whose analysis may inform our understanding of HIV pathogenesis.

Radiation doses along selected flight profiles during two extreme solar cosmic ray events

The radiation dose rates at flight altitudes may be hazardously increased during solar cosmic ray events. Within the scope of this paper we investigate the total accumulated radiation doses, i.e. the contribution of galactic and solar cosmic rays, during the two extreme solar cosmic ray events on 29 September 1989 and on 20 January 2005 along selected flight profiles. In addition, the paper discusses the consequences of possible solar cosmic ray flux approximations on the results of the radiation dose computations.