Voter Participation in the 1998 Bundestag Elections: A Theoretical Modification and Empirical Application of Downs’ Theory of Voter Participation

This article seeks to contribute to the illumination of the so-called 'paradox of voting' using the German Bundestag elections of 1998 as an empirical case. Downs' model of voter participation will be extended to include elements of the theory of subjective expected utility (SEU). This will allow a theoretical and empirical exploration of the crucial mechanisms of individual voters' decisions to participate, or abstain from voting, in the German general election of 1998. It will be argued that the infinitely low probability of an individual citizen's vote to decide the election outcome will not necessarily reduce the probability of electoral participation. The empirical analysis is largely based on data from the ALLBUS 1998. It confirms the predictions derived from SEU theory. The voters' expected benefits and their subjective expectation to be able to influence government policy by voting are the crucial mechanisms to explain participation. By contrast, the explanatory contribution of perceived information and opportunity costs is low.

Characterisation of Gas Transport Properties of the Opalinus Clay, a Potential Host Rock Formation for Radioactive Waste Disposal

The Opalinus Clay in Northern Switzerland has been identified as a potential host rock formation for the disposal of radioactive waste. Comprehensive understanding of gas transport processes through this low-permeability formation forms a key issue in the assessment of repository performance. Field investigations and laboratory experiments suggest an intrinsic permeability of the Opalinus Clay in the order of 10(-20) to 10(-21) m(2) and a moderate anisotropy ratio < 10. Porosity depends on clay content and burial depth; values of similar to 0.12 are reported for the region of interest. Porosimetry indicates that about 10-30 of voids can be classed as macropores, corresponding to an equivalent pore radius > 25 nm. The determined entry pressures are in the range of 0.4-10 MPa and exhibit a marked dependence on intrinsic permeability. Both in situ gas tests and gas permeameter tests on drillcores demonstrate that gas transport through the rock is accompanied by porewater displacement, suggesting that classical flow concepts of immiscible displacement in porous media can be applied when the gas entry pressure (i.e. capillary threshold pressure) is less than the minimum principal stress acting within the rock. Essentially, the pore space accessible to gas flow is restricted to the network of connected macropores, which implies a very low degree of desaturation of the rock during the gas imbibition process. At elevated gas pressures (i.e. when gas pressure approaches the level of total stress that acts on the rock body), evidence was seen for dilatancy controlled gas transport mechanisms. Further field experiments were aimed at creating extended tensile fractures with high fracture transmissivity (hydro- or gasfracs). The test results lead to the conclusion that gas fracturing can be largely ruled out as a risk for post-closure repository performance.

Development of meta-representations: Procedural metacognition and the relationship to Theory of Mind

In several studies it was shown that metacognitive ability is crucial for children and their success in school. Much less is known about the emergence of that ability and its relationship to other meta-representations like Theory of Mind competencies. In the past years, a growing literature has suggested that metacognition and Theory of Mind could theoretically be assumed to belong to the same developmental concept. Since then only a few studies showed empirically evidence that metacognition and Theory of Mind are related. But these studies focused on declarative metacognitive knowledge rather than on procedural metacognitive monitoring like in the present study: N = 159 children were first tested shortly before making the transition to school (aged between 5 1/2 and 7 1/2 years) and one year later at the end of their first grade. Analyses suggest that there is in fact a significant relation between early metacognitive monitoring skills (procedural metacognition) and later Theory of Mind competencies. Notably, language seems to play a crucial role in this relationship. Thus our results bring new insights in the research field of the development of meta-representation and support the view that metacognition and Theory of Mind are indeed interrelated, but the precise mechanisms yet remain unclear.

Microscopic theory of cooperative spin crossover: Interaction of molecular modes with phonons

In this article, we present a new microscopic theoretical approach to the description of spin crossover in molecular crystals. The spin crossover crystals under consideration are composed of molecular fragments formed by the spin-crossover metal ion and its nearest ligand surrounding and exhibiting well defined localized (molecular) vibrations. As distinguished from the previous models of this phenomenon, the developed approach takes into account the interaction of spin-crossover ions not only with the phonons but also a strong coupling of the electronic shells with molecular modes. This leads to an effective coupling of the local modes with phonons which is shown to be responsible for the cooperative spin transition accompanied by the structural reorganization. The transition is characterized by the two order parameters representing the mean values of the products of electronic diagonal matrices and the coordinates of the local modes for the high- and low-spin states of the spin crossover complex. Finally, we demonstrate that the approach provides a reasonable explanation of the observed spin transition in the [Fe(ptz)6](BF4)2 crystal. The theory well reproduces the observed abrupt low-spin → high-spin transition and the temperature dependence of the high-spin fraction in a wide temperature range as well as the pronounced hysteresis loop. At the same time within the limiting approximations adopted in the developed model, the evaluated high-spin fraction vs. T shows that the cooperative spin-lattice transition proves to be incomplete in the sense that the high-spin fraction does not reach its maximum value at high temperature.

Climatology of Vb cyclones, physical mechanisms and their impact on extreme precipitation over Central Europe

Cyclones, which develop over the western Mediterranean and move northeastward are a major source of extreme weather and known to be responsible for heavy precipitation over the northern side of the Alpine range and Central Europe. As the relevant processes triggering these so-called Vb events and their impact on extreme precipitation are not yet fully understood, this study focuses on gaining insight into the dynamics of past events. For this, a cyclone detection and tracking tool is applied to the ERA-Interim reanalysis (1979–2013) to identify prominent Vb situations. Precipitation in the ERA-Interim and the E-OBS data sets is used to evaluate case-to-case precipitation amounts and to assess consistency between the two data sets. Both data sets exhibit high variability in precipitation amounts among different Vb events. While only 23 % of all Vb events are associated with extreme precipitation, around 15 % of all extreme precipitation days (99 percentile) over the northern Alpine region and Central Europe are induced by Vb events, although Vb cyclones are rare events (2.3 per year). To obtain a better understanding of the variability within Vb events, the analysis of the 10 heaviest and lowest precipitation Vb events reveals noticeable differences in the state of the atmosphere. These differences are most pronounced in the geopotential height and potential vorticity field, indicating a much stronger cyclone for heavy precipitation events. The related differences in wind direction are responsible for the moisture transport around the Alps and the orographical lifting along the northern slopes of the Alps. These effects are the main reasons for a disastrous outcome of Vb events, and consequently are absent in the Vb events associated with low precipitation. Hence, our results point out that heavy precipitation related to Vb events is mainly related to large-scale dynamics rather than to thermodynamic processes.

Coordinating Platform-Based Multi-Sourcing: Introducing the Theory of Convention

Spurred by the consumer market, companies increasingly deploy smartphones or tablet computers in their operations. However, unlike private users, companies typically struggle to cover their needs with existing applications, and therefore expand mobile software platforms through customized applications from multiple software vendors. Companies thereby combine the concepts of multi-sourcing and software platform ecosystems in a novel platform-based multi-sourcing setting. This implies, however, the clash of two different approaches towards the coordination of the underlying one-to-many inter-organizational relationships. So far, however, little is known about impacts of merging coordination approaches. Relying on convention theory, we addresses this gap by analyzing a platform-based multi-sourcing project between a client and six software vendors, that develop twenty-three custom-made applications on a common platform (Android). In doing so, we aim to understand how unequal coordination approaches merge, and whether and for what reason particular coordination mechanisms, design decisions, or practices disappear, while new ones emerge.

MODELING THE DYNAMICS OF AIRWAY CONSTRICTION: EFFECTS OF AGONIST TRANSPORT AND BINDING

Recent advances have revealed that during exogenous airway challenge, airway diameters can not be adequately predicted by their initial diameters. Furthermore, airway diameters can also vary greatly in time on scales shorter than a breath. In order to better understand these phenomena, we developed a multiscale model which allows us to simulate aerosol challenge in the airways during ventilation. The model incorporates agonist-receptor binding kinetics to govern the temporal response of airway smooth muscle (ASM) contraction on individual airway segments, which together with airway wall mechanics, determines local airway caliber. Global agonist transport and deposition is coupled with pressure-driven flow, linking local airway constrictions with global flow dynamics. During the course of challenge, airway constriction alters the flow pattern, redistributing agonist to less constricted regions. This results in a negative feedback which may be a protective property of the normal lung. As a consequence, repetitive challenge can cause spatial constriction patterns to evolve in time, resulting in a loss of predictability of airway diameters. Additionally, the model offers new insight into several phenomena including the intra- and inter-breath dynamics of airway constriction throughout the tree structure.

A feasibility study for the provision of electronic healthcare tools and services in areas of Greece, Cyprus and Italy

Background Through this paper, we present the initial steps for the creation of an integrated platform for the provision of a series of eHealth tools and services to both citizens and travelers in isolated areas of thesoutheast Mediterranean, and on board ships travelling across it. The platform was created through an INTERREG IIIB ARCHIMED project called INTERMED. Methods The support of primary healthcare, home care and the continuous education of physicians are the three major issues that the proposed platform is trying to facilitate. The proposed system is based on state-of-the-art telemedicine systems and is able to provide the following healthcare services: i) Telecollaboration and teleconsultation services between remotely located healthcare providers, ii) telemedicine services in emergencies, iii) home telecare services for "at risk" citizens such as the elderly and patients with chronic diseases, and iv) eLearning services for the continuous training through seminars of both healthcare personnel (physicians, nurses etc) and persons supporting "at risk" citizens. These systems support data transmission over simple phone lines, internet connections, integrated services digital network/digital subscriber lines, satellite links, mobile networks (GPRS/3G), and wireless local area networks. The data corresponds, among others, to voice, vital biosignals, still medical images, video, and data used by eLearning applications. The proposed platform comprises several systems, each supporting different services. These were integrated using a common data storage and exchange scheme in order to achieve system interoperability in terms of software, language and national characteristics. Results The platform has been installed and evaluated in different rural and urban sites in Greece, Cyprus and Italy. The evaluation was mainly related to technical issues and user satisfaction. The selected sites are, among others, rural health centers, ambulances, homes of "at-risk" citizens, and a ferry. Conclusions The results proved the functionality and utilization of the platform in various rural places in Greece, Cyprus and Italy. However, further actions are needed to enable the local healthcare systems and the different population groups to be familiarized with, and use in their everyday lives, mature technological solutions for the provision of healthcare services.

Sustained impact of electronic alerts on rate of prophylaxis against venous thromboembolism

Advanced electronic alerts (eAlerts) and computerised physician order entry (CPOE) increase adequate thromboprophylaxis orders among hospitalised medical patients. It remains unclear whether eAlerts maintain their efficacy over time, after withdrawal of continuing medical education (CME) on eAlerts and on thromboprophylaxis indications from the study staff. We analysed 5,317 hospital cases from the University Hospital Zurich during 2006-2009: 1,854 cases from a medical ward with eAlerts (interventiongroup) and 3,463 cases from a surgical ward without eAlerts (controlgroup). In the intervention group, an eAlert with hospital-specific venous thromboembolism (VTE) prevention guidelines was issued in the electronic patient chart 6 hours after admission if no pharmacological or mechanical thromboprophylaxis had been ordered. Data were analysed for three phases: pre-implementation (phase 1), eAlert implementation with CME (phase 2), and post-implementation without CME (phase3). The rates of thromboprophylaxis in the intervention group were 43.4% in phase 1 and 66.7% in phase 2 (p<0.001), and increased further to 73.6% in phase3 (p=0.011). Early thromboprophylaxis orders within 12 hours after admission were more often placed in phase 2 and 3 as compared to phase 1 (67.1% vs. 52.1%, p<0.001). In the surgical control group, the thromboprophylaxis rates in the three phases were 88.6%, 90.7%, 90.6% (p=0.16). Advanced eAlerts may provide sustained efficacy over time, with stable rates of thromboprophylaxis orders among hospitalised medical patients.