Adjusting mortality for loss to follow-up: analysis of five ART programmes in sub-Saharan Africa

Evaluation of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes in sub-Saharan Africa is difficult because many patients are lost to follow-up. Outcomes in these patients are generally unknown but studies tracing patients have shown mortality to be high. We adjusted programme-level mortality in the first year of antiretroviral treatment (ART) for excess mortality in patients lost to follow-up.

Mortality after failure of antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa

Objective  To assess the outcome of patients who experienced treatment failure with antiretrovirals in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods  Analysis of 11 antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. World Health Organization (WHO) criteria were used to define treatment failure. All ART-naive patients aged ≥16 who started with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based regimen and had at least 6 months of follow-up were eligible. For each patient who switched to a second-line regimen, 10 matched patients who remained on a non-failing first-line regimen were selected. Time was measured from the time of switching, from the corresponding time in matched patients, or from the time of treatment failure in patients who remained on a failing regimen. Mortality was analysed using Kaplan–Meier curves and random-effects Cox models. Results  Of 16 591 adult patients starting ART, 382 patients (2.3%) switched to a second-line regimen. Another 323 patients (1.9%) did not switch despite developing immunological or virological failure. Cumulative mortality at 1 year was 4.2% (95% CI 2.2–7.8%) in patients who switched to a second-line regimen and 11.7% (7.3%–18.5%) in patients who remained on a failing first-line regimen, compared to 2.2% (1.6–3.0%) in patients on a non-failing first-line regimen (P < 0.0001). Differences in mortality were not explained by nadir CD4 cell count, age or differential loss to follow up. Conclusions  Many patients who meet criteria for treatment failure do not switch to a second-line regimen and die. There is an urgent need to clarify the reasons why in sub-Saharan Africa many patients remain on failing first-line ART.

Prognosis of patients with HIV-1 infection starting antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: a collaborative analysis of scale-up programmes

Background Prognostic models have been developed for patients infected with HIV-1 who start combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) in high-income countries, but not for patients in sub-Saharan Africa. We developed two prognostic models to estimate the probability of death in patients starting ART in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods We analysed data for adult patients who started ART in four scale-up programmes in Côte d'Ivoire, South Africa, and Malawi from 2004 to 2007. Patients lost to follow-up in the first year were excluded. We used Weibull survival models to construct two prognostic models: one with CD4 cell count, clinical stage, bodyweight, age, and sex (CD4 count model); and one that replaced CD4 cell count with total lymphocyte count and severity of anaemia (total lymphocyte and haemoglobin model), because CD4 cell count is not routinely measured in many African ART programmes. Death from all causes in the first year of ART was the primary outcome. Findings 912 (8·2%) of 11 153 patients died in the first year of ART. 822 patients were lost to follow-up and not included in the main analysis; 10 331 patients were analysed. Mortality was strongly associated with high baseline CD4 cell count (≥200 cells per μL vs <25; adjusted hazard ratio 0·21, 95% CI 0·17–0·27), WHO clinical stage (stages III–IV vs I–II; 3·45, 2·43–4·90), bodyweight (≥60 kg vs <45 kg; 0·23, 0·18–0·30), and anaemia status (none vs severe: 0·27, 0·20–0·36). Other independent risk factors for mortality were low total lymphocyte count, advanced age, and male sex. Probability of death at 1 year ranged from 0·9% (95% CI 0·6–1·4) to 52·5% (43·8–61·7) with the CD4 model, and from 0·9% (0·5–1·4) to 59·6% (48·2–71·4) with the total lymphocyte and haemoglobin model. Both models accurately predict early mortality in patients starting ART in sub-Saharan Africa compared with observed data. Interpretation Prognostic models should be used to counsel patients, plan health services, and predict outcomes for patients with HIV-1 infection in sub-Saharan Africa.

Correcting mortality for loss to follow-up: a nomogram applied to antiretroviral treatment programmes in sub-Saharan Africa

Background The World Health Organization estimates that in sub-Saharan Africa about 4 million HIV-infected patients had started antiretroviral therapy (ART) by the end of 2008. Loss of patients to follow-up and care is an important problem for treatment programmes in this region. As mortality is high in these patients compared to patients remaining in care, ART programmes with high rates of loss to follow-up may substantially underestimate mortality of all patients starting ART. Methods and Findings We developed a nomogram to correct mortality estimates for loss to follow-up, based on the fact that mortality of all patients starting ART in a treatment programme is a weighted average of mortality among patients lost to follow-up and patients remaining in care. The nomogram gives a correction factor based on the percentage of patients lost to follow-up at a given point in time, and the estimated ratio of mortality between patients lost and not lost to follow-up. The mortality observed among patients retained in care is then multiplied by the correction factor to obtain an estimate of programme-level mortality that takes all deaths into account. A web calculator directly calculates the corrected, programme-level mortality with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We applied the method to 11 ART programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. Patients retained in care had a mortality at 1 year of 1.4% to 12.0%; loss to follow-up ranged from 2.8% to 28.7%; and the correction factor from 1.2 to 8.0. The absolute difference between uncorrected and corrected mortality at 1 year ranged from 1.6% to 9.8%, and was above 5% in four programmes. The largest difference in mortality was in a programme with 28.7% of patients lost to follow-up at 1 year. Conclusions The amount of bias in mortality estimates can be large in ART programmes with substantial loss to follow-up. Programmes should routinely report mortality among patients retained in care and the proportion of patients lost. A simple nomogram can then be used to estimate mortality among all patients who started ART, for a range of plausible mortality rates among patients lost to follow-up.

Vaginal practices as women's agency in sub-Saharan Africa: a synthesis of meaning and motivation through meta-ethnography

This paper reports on a systematic review of qualitative research about vaginal practices in sub-Saharan Africa, which used meta-ethnographic methods to understand their origins, their meanings for the women who use them, and how they have evolved in time and place. We included published documents which were based on qualitative methods of data collection and analysis and contained information on vaginal practices. After screening, 16 texts were included which dated from 1951 to 2008. We found that practices evolve and adapt to present circumstances and that they remain an important source of power for women to negotiate challenges that they face. Recent evidence suggests that some practices may increase a woman's susceptibility to HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. The success of new female-controlled prevention technologies, such as microbicides, might be determined by whether they can and will be used by women in the course of their daily life.

Longer term clinical and virological outcome of sub-Saharan African participants on antiretroviral treatment in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

Persons from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are increasingly enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). Cohorts from other European countries showed higher rates of viral failure among their SSA participants. We analyzed long-term outcomes of SSA versus North Western European participants.

Phosphatidylethanol (PEth) as a Biomarker of Alcohol Consumption in HIV-Positive Patients in Sub-Saharan Africa

Background:  Alcohol is heavily consumed in sub-Saharan Africa and affects HIV transmission and treatment and is difficult to measure. Our goal was to examine the test characteristics of a direct metabolite of alcohol consumption, phosphatidylethanol (PEth). Methods:  Persons infected with HIV were recruited from a large HIV clinic in southwestern Uganda. We conducted surveys and breath alcohol concentration (BRAC) testing at 21 daily home or drinking establishment visits, and blood was collected on day 21 (n = 77). PEth in whole blood was compared with prior 7-, 14-, and 21-day alcohol consumption. Results:  (i) The receiver operator characteristic area under the curve (ROC-AUC) was highest for PEth versus any consumption over the prior 21 days (0.92; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.86 to 0.97). The sensitivity for any detectable PEth was 88.0% (95% CI: 76.0 to 95.6) and the specificity was 88.5% (95% CI: 69.8 to 97.6). (ii) The ROC-AUC of PEth versus any 21-day alcohol consumption did not vary with age, body mass index, CD4 cell count, hepatitis B virus infection, and antiretroviral therapy status, but was higher for men compared with women (p = 0.03). (iii) PEth measurements were correlated with several measures of alcohol consumption, including number of drinking days in the prior 21 days (Spearman r = 0.74, p < 0.001) and BRAC (r = 0.75, p < 0.001). Conclusions:  The data add support to the body of evidence for PEth as a useful marker of alcohol consumption with high ROC-AUC, sensitivity, and specificity. Future studies should further address the period and level of alcohol consumption for which PEth is detectable.

Surgical pathology in sub-Saharan Africa--volunteering in Malawi

The breadth of material found in surgical pathology services in African countries differs from the common spectrum of "the West". We report our experience of a voluntary work in the pathology departments of Blantyre and Lilongwe, Malawi. During a 6-week period, 405 cases (378 histology and 27 cytology cases) were processed. The vast majority showed significant pathological findings (n = 369; 91.1 %): 175 cases (47.4 %) were non-tumoral conditions with predominance of inflammatory lesions, e.g., schistosomiasis (n = 11) and tuberculosis (n = 11). There were 39 (10.6 %) benign tumors or tumor-like lesions. Intraepithelial neoplasia of the cervix uteri dominated among premalignant conditions (n = 15; 4.1 %). The large group of malignancies (n = 140; 37.9 %) comprised 11 pediatric tumors (e.g., rhabdomyosarcoma, small blue round cell tumors) and 129 adult tumors. Among women (n = 76), squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) of the cervix uteri predominated (n = 25; 32.9 %), followed by breast carcinomas (n = 12; 15.8 %) and esophageal SCC (n = 9; 11.8 %). Males (n = 53) most often showed SCC of the esophagus (n = 9; 17.0 %) and of the urinary bladder (n = 7; 13.2 %). Lymphomas (n = 7) and Kaposi's sarcomas (n = 6) were less frequent. Differences compared to the western world include the character of the conditions in general, the spectrum of inflammatory lesions, and the young age of adult tumor patients (median 45 years; range 18-87 years). Providing pathology service in a low-resource country may be handicapped by lack of personnel, inadequate material resources, or insufficient infrastructure. Rotating volunteers offer a bridge for capacity building of both personnel and the local medical service; in addition, the volunteer's horizons are broadened professionally and personally.

Loss to programme between HIV diagnosis and initiation of antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: systematic review and meta-analysis

Objectives  To assess the proportion of patients lost to programme (died, lost to follow-up, transferred out) between HIV diagnosis and start of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, and determine factors associated with loss to programme. Methods  Systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched PubMed and EMBASE databases for studies in adults. Outcomes were the percentage of patients dying before starting ART, the percentage lost to follow-up, the percentage with a CD4 cell count, the distribution of first CD4 counts and the percentage of eligible patients starting ART. Data were combined using random-effects meta-analysis. Results  Twenty-nine studies from sub-Saharan Africa including 148 912 patients were analysed. Six studies covered the whole period from HIV diagnosis to ART start. Meta-analysis of these studies showed that of the 100 patients with a positive HIV test, 72 (95% CI 60-84) had a CD4 cell count measured, 40 (95% CI 26-55) were eligible for ART and 25 (95% CI 13-37) started ART. There was substantial heterogeneity between studies (P < 0.0001). Median CD4 cell count at presentation ranged from 154 to 274 cells/μl. Patients eligible for ART were less likely to become lost to programme (25%vs. 54%, P < 0.0001), but eligible patients were more likely to die (11%vs. 5%, P < 0.0001) than ineligible patients. Loss to programme was higher in men, in patients with low CD4 cell counts and low socio-economic status and in recent time periods. Conclusions  Monitoring and care in the pre-ART time period need improvement, with greater emphasis on patients not yet eligible for ART.

Antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings 1996 to 2006: patient characteristics, treatment regimens and monitoring in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and Latin America

OBJECTIVES: To describe temporal trends in baseline clinical characteristics, initial treatment regimens and monitoring of patients starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings. METHODS: We analysed data from 17 ART programmes in 12 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, South America and Asia. Patients aged 16 years or older with documented date of start of highly active ART (HAART) were included. Data were analysed by calculating medians, interquartile ranges (IQR) and percentages by regions and time periods. Not all centres provided data for 2006 and 2005 and 2006 were therefore combined. RESULTS: A total of 36,715 patients who started ART 1996-2006 were included in the analysis. Patient numbers increased substantially in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, and the number of initial regimens declined, to four and five, respectively, in 2005-2006. In South America 20 regimes were used in 2005-2006. A combination of 3TC/D4T/NVP was used for 56% of African patients and 42% of Asian patients; AZT/3TC/EFV was used in 33% of patients in South America. The median baseline CD4 count increased in recent years, to 122 cells/microl (IQR 53-194) in 2005-2006 in Africa, 134 cells/microl (IQR 72-191) in Asia, and 197 cells/microl (IQR 61-277) in South America, but 77%, 78% and 51%, respectively, started with <200 cells/microl in 2005-2006. In all regions baseline CD4 cell counts were higher in women than men: differences were 22cells/microl in Africa, 65 cells/microl in Asia and 10 cells/microl in South America. In 2005-2006 a viral load at 6 months was available in 21% of patients Africa, 8% of Asian patients and 73% of patients in South America. Corresponding figures for 6-month CD4 cell counts were 74%, 77% and 81%. CONCLUSIONS: The public health approach to providing ART proposed by the World Health Organization has been implemented in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. Although CD4 cell counts at the start of ART have increased in recent years, most patients continue to start with counts well below the recommended threshold. Particular attention should be paid to more timely initiation of ART in HIV-infected men.

Mortality of HIV-infected patients starting antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: comparison with HIV-unrelated mortality

BACKGROUND: Mortality in HIV-infected patients who have access to highly active antiretroviral therapy (ART) has declined in sub-Saharan Africa, but it is unclear how mortality compares to the non-HIV-infected population. We compared mortality rates observed in HIV-1-infected patients starting ART with non-HIV-related background mortality in four countries in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Patients enrolled in antiretroviral treatment programmes in Côte d'Ivoire, Malawi, South Africa, and Zimbabwe were included. We calculated excess mortality rates and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Expected numbers of deaths were obtained using estimates of age-, sex-, and country-specific, HIV-unrelated, mortality rates from the Global Burden of Disease project. Among 13,249 eligible patients 1,177 deaths were recorded during 14,695 person-years of follow-up. The median age was 34 y, 8,831 (67%) patients were female, and 10,811 of 12,720 patients (85%) with information on clinical stage had advanced disease when starting ART. The excess mortality rate was 17.5 (95% CI 14.5-21.1) per 100 person-years SMR in patients who started ART with a CD4 cell count of less than 25 cells/microl and World Health Organization (WHO) stage III/IV, compared to 1.00 (0.55-1.81) per 100 person-years in patients who started with 200 cells/microl or above with WHO stage I/II. The corresponding SMRs were 47.1 (39.1-56.6) and 3.44 (1.91-6.17). Among patients who started ART with 200 cells/microl or above in WHO stage I/II and survived the first year of ART, the excess mortality rate was 0.27 (0.08-0.94) per 100 person-years and the SMR was 1.14 (0.47-2.77). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality of HIV-infected patients treated with combination ART in sub-Saharan Africa continues to be higher than in the general population, but for some patients excess mortality is moderate and reaches that of the general population in the second year of ART. Much of the excess mortality might be prevented by timely initiation of ART.

Paediatric antiretroviral treatment programmes in sub-Saharan Africa: a review of published clinical studies

Knowledge of the experience and outcomes of current paediatric antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes in sub-Saharan Africa can inform new programmes in the region as well as enhance existing ones. This is urgently needed to facilitate the scale-up of treatment, which is needed to address the burden of paediatric HIV cases on the continent. We reviewed the characteristics and outcomes of programmes with clinical paediatric ART studies published prior to 1 January 2008. The outcomes of the studies were comparable to similar ones from developed countries; however, the duration of follow-up was relatively limited in almost all the studies reviewed. One-year survival probability was between 84% and 91%, and considerable improvement in the clinical, immunologic and iral status of the paediatric patients was generally recorded. Loss to follow-up was less than 10% in all but two studies. Adherence to treatment was good and few adverse events were reported. This is despite the fact that many programmes were subject to enormous constraints in terms of health services, and despite widespread use of adult fixed-dose combinations for paediatric patients, including young infants. While the majority of children commencing ART were severely ill, most children were old (median age >5 years for almost all studies) with relatively few infants and young children (age <2 years) receiving treatment. This is in contrast to knowledge of rapid disease progression in the majority of HIV-infected infants and despite the World Health Organization’s recent recommendations to commence ART in all HIV-infected infants less than one year old. There is an urgent need to address barriers to ART for infants. Studies of the outcomes of programmes treating infants as well as those with longer-term follow-up are also needed.