Stochastic simulation of rare events

Stochastic simulation is an important and practical technique for computing probabilities of rare events, like the payoff probability of a financial option, the probability that a queue exceeds a certain level or the probability of ruin of the insurer's risk process. Rare events occur so infrequently, that they cannot be reasonably recorded during a standard simulation procedure: specifc simulation algorithms which thwart the rarity of the event to simulate are required. An important algorithm in this context is based on changing the sampling distribution and it is called importance sampling. Optimal Monte Carlo algorithms for computing rare event probabilities are either logarithmic eficient or possess bounded relative error.

Somatic CEBPA mutations are a frequent second event in families with germline CEBPA mutations and familial acute myeloid leukemia

PURPOSE: The transcription factor CCAAT/enhancer binding protein-alpha (CEBPA) is crucial for normal myeloid differentiation. Mutations in the CEBPA gene are found in subsets of patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Recently, three families were reported in whom several family members had germline CEBPA mutations and subsequently developed AML. Whereas familial AML is considered a rare event, the frequency of CEBPA germline mutations in AML is not known. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In this study, we screened 187 consecutive AML patients for CEBPA mutations at diagnosis. We detected 18 patients (9.6%) with CEBPA mutations. We then analyzed remission samples and constitutive DNA from these patients. RESULTS: We found that two (11.1%) of 18 AML patients with CEBPA mutations carried a germline N-terminal frameshift CEBPA mutation. Interestingly, additional members in the families of both of these patients have been affected by AML, and the germline CEBPA mutations were also observed in these patients. Additional somatic mutations in AML patients with germline CEBPA mutations in the two families comprised in-frame C-terminal CEBPA mutations in two patients, two nonsilent CEBPA point mutations in one patient, and monosomy 7 in one patient. CONCLUSION: This study shows, for the first time to our knowledge, that germline CEBPA mutations are frequently observed among AML patients with CEBPA mutations. Including the families with germline CEBPA mutations reported previously, additional somatic CEBPA mutations represent a frequent second event in AML with germline CEBPA mutations. Our data strongly indicate that germline CEBPA mutations predispose to AML and that additional somatic CEBPA mutations contribute to the development of the disease.

Vaccine hypersensitivity--update and overview

Concerns about possible reactions to vaccines or vaccinations are frequently raised. However, the rate of reported vaccine-induced adverse events is low and ranges between 4.8-83.0 per 100,000 doses of the most frequently used vaccines. The number of true allergic reactions to routine vaccines is not known; estimations range from 1 per 500,000 to 1 per 1,000,000 doses for most vaccines. When allergens such as gelatine or egg proteins are components of the formulation, the rate for serious allergic reactions may be higher. Nevertheless, anaphylactic, potentially life-threatening reactions to vaccines are still a rare event (approximately 1 per 1,500,000 doses). The variety of reported vaccine-related adverse events is broad. Most frequently, reactions to vaccines are limited to the injection site and result from a non specific activation of the inflammatory system by, for example, aluminium salts or the active microbial components. If allergy is suspected, an accurate examination followed by algorithms is the key for correct diagnosis, treatment and the decision regarding revaccination in patients with immediate-type reactions to vaccines.

Infrequent replication of parvovirus B19 and erythrovirus genotypes 2 and 3 among HIV-infected patients with chronic anemia

We investigated the role that erythroviruses (parvovirus B19 and erythrovirus genotypes 2 and 3) play in the lives of immunosuppressed HIV-infected patients with chronic anemia. We screened the serum samples of 428 patients by specific ultrasensitive real-time polymerase chain reaction assay. Sixteen patients had circulating DNA, with no apparent clinical impact. Erythrovirus-associated anemia is an extremely rare event in HIV-infected patients.

Biomarkers for Hepatocellular Apoptosis in the Management of Liver Diseases

Apoptosis is a rare event in normal hepatocytes. However, multiple signals can trigger apoptosis in hepatocytes and it plays a role in the pathogenesis of many liver diseases. This review summarizes the mechanisms of hepatocellular apoptosis and the importance of apoptosis in the pathological processes of liver disease. The potential for non-invasive biomarkers of apoptosis to gauge the extent and follow the evolution of clinical disease is emphasized.

Pulmonary artery pressure and cardiac function in children and adolescents after rapid ascent to 3,450 m

High-altitude destinations are visited by increasing numbers of children and adolescents. High-altitude hypoxia triggers pulmonary hypertension that in turn may have adverse effects on cardiac function and may induce life-threatening high-altitude pulmonary edema (HAPE), but there are limited data in this young population. We, therefore, assessed in 118 nonacclimatized healthy children and adolescents (mean ± SD; age: 11 ± 2 yr) the effects of rapid ascent to high altitude on pulmonary artery pressure and right and left ventricular function by echocardiography. Pulmonary artery pressure was estimated by measuring the systolic right ventricular to right atrial pressure gradient. The echocardiography was performed at low altitude and 40 h after rapid ascent to 3,450 m. Pulmonary artery pressure was more than twofold higher at high than at low altitude (35 ± 11 vs. 16 ± 3 mmHg; P < 0.0001), and there existed a wide variability of pulmonary artery pressure at high altitude with an estimated upper 95% limit of 52 mmHg. Moreover, pulmonary artery pressure and its altitude-induced increase were inversely related to age, resulting in an almost twofold larger increase in the 6- to 9- than in the 14- to 16-yr-old participants (24 ± 12 vs. 13 ± 8 mmHg; P = 0.004). Even in children with the most severe altitude-induced pulmonary hypertension, right ventricular systolic function did not decrease, but increased, and none of the children developed HAPE. HAPE appears to be a rare event in this young population after rapid ascent to this altitude at which major tourist destinations are located.

Narcolepsy and pregnancy: a retrospective European evaluation of 249 pregnancies

In a retrospective cohort study undertaken in 12 European countries, 249 female narcoleptic patients with cataplexy (n = 216) and without cataplexy (n = 33) completed a self-administrated questionnaire regarding pregnancy and childbirth. The cohort was divided further into patients whose symptoms of narcolepsy started before or during pregnancy (308 pregnancies) and those in whom the first symptoms of narcolepsy appeared after delivery (106 pregnancies). Patients with narcolepsy during pregnancy were older during their first pregnancy (P < 0.001) and had a higher body mass index (BMI) prior to pregnancy (P < 0.01). Weight gain during pregnancy was higher in narcoleptic patients with cataplexy (P < 0.01). More patients with narcolepsy-cataplexy during pregnancy had impaired glucose metabolism and anaemia. Three patients experienced cataplexy during delivery. The rate of caesarean sections was higher in the narcolepsy-cataplexy group compared to the narcolepsy group (P < 0.05). The mean birth weight and gestational age of neonates were within the normal range and did not differ across groups. Neonatal care was affected adversely by symptoms of narcolepsy in 60.1% of those with narcolepsy during pregnancy. This study reports more obstetric complications in patients with narcolepsy-cataplexy during pregnancy; however, these were not severe. This group also had a higher BMI and higher incidence of impaired glucose metabolism during pregnancy. Caesarian section was conducted more frequently in narcolepsy-cataplexy patients, despite cataplexy being a rare event during delivery. Furthermore, symptoms of narcolepsy may render care of the infant more difficult.

Dysphagia in elderly women: consider tetanus

BACKGROUND: Dysphagia is seldom caused by tetanus; however, it is a common symptom of tetanus. Treating patients with tetanus is a rare event in industrialized countries and awareness is needed to recognize early signs of this serious disease. In Switzerland, the most recently reported tetanus cases occurred in elderly women with insufficient seroprotection. PATIENTS: We report on three elderly women presenting with dysphagia as an initial symptom of tetanus. RESULTS: Generalized tetanus was diagnosed in two patients upon admission, the third presented with cephalic tetanus with secondary generalization. All three patients had undetectable levels of tetanus antibodies and had no documented prior tetanus immunizations. Cultures of wound swabs grew Clostridium tetani in all cases. Electromyography was highly suggestive for tetanus in two patients. Treatment involved mechanical ventilation, intravenous benzodiazepine and metronidazole therapy, and active and passive tetanus immunization. The disease had a favorable outcome in two cases and was fatal in one. CONCLUSION: Tetanus remains a threat in patients with insufficient seroprotection and efforts are needed to improve tetanus immunization in these individuals. Tetanus should be considered in the differential diagnosis of dysphagia.

[Search for Neospora caninum DNA in bull semen using PCR ]

Neospora caninum represents one of the most frequent abortifaciant organisms worldwide. The parasite is diaplacentally transmitted from the pregnant cow to the fetus, where it normally leads to the delivery of a healthy, however persistently infected calf. Abortion thus is a relative rare event. The transmission of bovine neosporosis occurs in more than 90% of the cases vertically due to the endogenous reactivation of a persistently infected mother. Exogenous infections are therefore responsible for less than 10% of the cases.The question arises about which infection sources may be relevant in this context. In Switzerland, the role of dogs as definitive hosts has been shown to be of low significance in that respect. Recently, discussion focused on the potential of infectious bull semen following natural or artificial insemination. Thus, a few years ago a report documented the detectability of N. caninum-DNA in the semen of naturally infected bulls by nested-PCR. As a consequence, we decided to gain own experience by investigating 5 separate semen specimens per animal, originating from 20 N. caninum-seropositive bulls used for artificial insemination in Switzerland. All probes turned out to be negative by nested PCR. Based upon our laboratory experiences, the potential bull semen-associated Neospora-problem seems not to affect the Swiss bull population, thus there is no evidence to include further respective means of control.

Atraumatic splenic rupture in amyloidosis

BACKGROUND: Splenic involvement in amyloidosis is rather frequent (5-10%). An atraumatic rupture of the affected spleen is however an extremely rare event. We report on a patient with undiagnosed amyloidosis who underwent emergency splenectomy for atraumatic splenic rupture. METHODS: Review of the literature and identification of 31 patients, including our own case report, with atraumatic splenic rupture in amyloidosis. Analysis of the clinical presentation, the surgical management, the nomenclature and definition of predisposing factors of splenic rupture. RESULTS: We identified 15 women and 16 men (mean age 53.3 +/- 12.4 years; median 52, range: 27-82 years) with an atraumatic splenic rupture. Easy skin bruisability and factor X deficiency were detected in four (13%) and five patients (16%), respectively. The diagnosis of splenic rupture was made either by computed tomography (n = 12), ultrasound (n = 5), exploratory laparotomy (n = 9) or autopsy (n = 4). All patients underwent surgery (n = 27) or autopsy (n = 4). Amyloidosis was previously diagnosed in nine patients (29%). In the remaining 22 patients (71%), the atraumatic splenic rupture represented the initial manifestation of amyloidosis. Twenty-five patients (81%) suffered from primary (AL) and four patients (13%) from secondary amyloidosis (AA). In two patients, the type of amyloidosis was not specified. A moderate splenomegaly was a common feature (68%) and the characteristic intraoperative finding was an extended subcapsular hematoma with a limited parenchymal laceration (65%). In five patients with known amyloidosis, the atraumatic splenic rupture was closely associated with autologous stem-cell transplantation (ASCT) (16%). Three patients were suffering from multiple myeloma (10%). A biopsy-proven amyloidotic liver involvement was present in 14 patients (45%), which lead to atraumatic liver rupture in two patients. The splenic rupture related 30-day mortality was 26% (8/31). CONCLUSIONS: Atraumatic splenic rupture in amyloidosis is associated with a high 30-day mortality. It occurs predominantly in patients with previously undiagnosed amyloidosis. A moderate splenomegaly, coagulation abnormalities (easy skin bruisability, factor X deficiency) and treatment of amyloidosis with ASCT are considered predisposing factors for an atraumatic splenic rupture.

A verified spider bite and a review of the literature confirm Indian ornamental tree spiders (Poecilotheria species) as underestimated theraphosids of medical importance.

Literature on bird spider or tarantula bites (Theraphosidae) is rare. This is astonishing as they are coveted pets and interaction with their keepers (feeding, cleaning the terrarium or taking them out to hold) might increase the possibility for bites. Yet, this seems to be a rare event and might be why most theraphosids are considered to be harmless, even though the urticating hairs of many American species can cause disagreeable allergic reactions. We are describing a case of a verified bite by an Indian ornamental tree spider (Poecilotheria regalis), where the patient developed severe, long lasting muscle cramps several hours after the bite. We present a comprehensive review of the literature on bites of these beautiful spiders and conclude that a delayed onset of severe muscle cramps, lasting for days, is characteristic for Poecilotheria bites. We discuss Poecilotheria species as an exception from the general assumption that theraphosid bites are harmless to humans.

Patent foramen ovale and closure technique with the amplatzer occluder.

Proof that percutaneous closure of the patent foramen ovale (PFO) is superior to medical treatment is still incomplete. Paradoxical embolism is a rare event occurring over decades rather than years. None of the 4 randomized trials published carried enough patients or was followed up for long enough to reach superiority endpoints. All data, however, point to a benefit of PFO closure. Free wall erosion (exceedingly rare) and triggering of atrial fibrillation (in about 1% of patients) are the only noteworthy complications. They are outweighed by the supposedly prevented events of paradoxical embolisms, such as stroke, transient ischemic attacks, myocardial infarctions, or other systemic embolisms. Medical treatment with perhaps the exception of lifelong oral anticoagulation provides less protection. During a 10-year follow-up of a comparative study the annual mortality was significantly lower in the patients with PFO closure (0.4%) than in those with medical treatment (1.1%, P < 0.03). PFO closure can be accomplished in less than 1 hour with immediate resumption of physical activity. It represents thus a kind of mechanical vaccination.

Cosmogenic activation of xenon and copper

Rare event search experiments using liquid xenon as target and detection medium require ultra-low background levels to fully exploit their physics potential. Cosmic ray induced activation of the detector components and, even more importantly, of the xenon itself during production, transportation and storage at the Earth's surface, might result in the production of radioactive isotopes with long half-lives, with a possible impact on the expected background. We present the first dedicated study on the cosmogenic activation of xenon after 345 days of exposure to cosmic rays at the Jungfraujoch research station at 3470m above sea level, complemented by a study of copper which has been activated simultaneously. We have directly observed the production of 7Be, 101Rh, 125Sb, 126I and 127Xe in xenon, out of which only 125Sb could potentially lead to background for a multi-ton scale dark matter search. The production rates for five out of eight studied radioactive isotopes in copper are in agreement with the only existing dedicated activation measurement, while we observe lower rates for the remaining ones. The specific saturation activities for both samples are also compared to predictions obtained with commonly used software packages, where we observe some underpredictions, especially for xenon activation.