Using an adaptive autoregressive model for the early detection of action potential duration alternans

Cardiostim 2012, Nice, France

Early detection of action potential duration alternans using an autoregressive model

Annual Meeting of the Biophysical Society, San Diego, USA

Naive B-cell trafficking is shaped by local chemokine availability and LFA-1-independent stromal interactions.

It is not known how naive B cells compute divergent chemoattractant signals of the T-cell area and B-cell follicles during in vivo migration. Here, we used two-photon microscopy of peripheral lymph nodes (PLNs) to analyze the prototype G-protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) CXCR4, CXCR5, and CCR7 during B-cell migration, as well as the integrin LFA-1 for stromal guidance. CXCR4 and CCR7 did not influence parenchymal B-cell motility and distribution, despite their role during B-cell arrest in venules. In contrast, CXCR5 played a nonredundant role in B-cell motility in follicles and in the T-cell area. B-cell migration in the T-cell area followed a random guided walk model, arguing against directed migration in vivo. LFA-1, but not α4 integrins, contributed to B-cell motility in PLNs. However, stromal network guidance was LFA-1 independent, uncoupling integrin-dependent migration from stromal attachment. Finally, we observed that despite a 20-fold reduction of chemokine expression in virus-challenged PLNs, CXCR5 remained essential for B-cell screening of antigen-presenting cells. Our data provide an overview of the contribution of prototype GPCRs and integrins during naive B-cell migration and shed light on the local chemokine availability that these cells compute.

Multi-Model Data Fusion to Improve an Early Warning System for Hypo-/Hyperglycemic Events

Correct predictions of future blood glucose levels in individuals with Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) can be used to provide early warning of upcoming hypo-/hyperglycemic events and thus to improve the patient's safety. To increase prediction accuracy and efficiency, various approaches have been proposed which combine multiple predictors to produce superior results compared to single predictors. Three methods for model fusion are presented and comparatively assessed. Data from 23 T1D subjects under sensor-augmented pump (SAP) therapy were used in two adaptive data-driven models (an autoregressive model with output correction - cARX, and a recurrent neural network - RNN). Data fusion techniques based on i) Dempster-Shafer Evidential Theory (DST), ii) Genetic Algorithms (GA), and iii) Genetic Programming (GP) were used to merge the complimentary performances of the prediction models. The fused output is used in a warning algorithm to issue alarms of upcoming hypo-/hyperglycemic events. The fusion schemes showed improved performance with lower root mean square errors, lower time lags, and higher correlation. In the warning algorithm, median daily false alarms (DFA) of 0.25%, and 100% correct alarms (CA) were obtained for both event types. The detection times (DT) before occurrence of events were 13.0 and 12.1 min respectively for hypo-/hyperglycemic events. Compared to the cARX and RNN models, and a linear fusion of the two, the proposed fusion schemes represents a significant improvement.

Efficacy of experimental treatments compared with standard treatments in non-inferiority trials: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

Background There is concern that non-inferiority trials might be deliberately designed to conceal that a new treatment is less effective than a standard treatment. In order to test this hypothesis we performed a meta-analysis of non-inferiority trials to assess the average effect of experimental treatments compared with standard treatments. Methods One hundred and seventy non-inferiority treatment trials published in 121 core clinical journals were included. The trials were identified through a search of PubMed (1991 to 20 February 2009). Combined relative risk (RR) from meta-analysis comparing experimental with standard treatments was the main outcome measure. Results The 170 trials contributed a total of 175 independent comparisons of experimental with standard treatments. The combined RR for all 175 comparisons was 0.994 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.978–1.010] using a random-effects model and 1.002 (95% CI 0.996–1.008) using a fixed-effects model. Of the 175 comparisons, experimental treatment was considered to be non-inferior in 130 (74%). The combined RR for these 130 comparisons was 0.995 (95% CI 0.983–1.006) and the point estimate favoured the experimental treatment in 58% (n = 76) and standard treatment in 42% (n = 54). The median non-inferiority margin (RR) pre-specified by trialists was 1.31 [inter-quartile range (IQR) 1.18–1.59]. Conclusion In this meta-analysis of non-inferiority trials the average RR comparing experimental with standard treatments was close to 1. The experimental treatments that gain a verdict of non-inferiority in published trials do not appear to be systematically less effective than the standard treatments. Importantly, publication bias and bias in the design and reporting of the studies cannot be ruled out and may have skewed the study results in favour of the experimental treatments. Further studies are required to examine the importance of such bias.

Bivariate meta-analysis of predictive values of diagnostic tests can be an alternative to bivariate meta-analysis of sensitivity and specificity

Meta-analysis of predictive values is usually discouraged because these values are directly affected by disease prevalence, but sensitivity and specificity sometimes show substantial heterogeneity as well. We propose a bivariate random-effects logitnormal model for the meta-analysis of the positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of diagnostic tests.

The effect of rhBMP-2 around endosseous implants with and without membranes in the canine model

BACKGROUND: Bone morphogenetic protein (BMP) is a potent differentiating agent for cells of the osteoblastic lineage. It has been used in the oral cavity under a variety of indications and with different carriers. However, the optimal carrier for each indication is not known. This study examined a synthetic bioabsorbable carrier for BMP used in osseous defects around dental implants in the canine mandible. METHODS: Twelve canines had their mandibular four premolars and first molar teeth extracted bilaterally. After 5 months, four implants were placed with standardized circumferential defects around the coronal 4 mm of each implant. One-half of the defects received a polylactide/glycolide (PLGA) polymer carrier with or without recombinant human BMP-2 (rhBMP-2), and the other half received a collagen carrier with or without rhBMP-2. Additionally, one-half of the implants were covered with a non-resorbable (expanded polytetrafluoroethylene [ePTFE]) membrane to exclude soft tissues. Animals were sacrificed either 4 or 12 weeks later. Histomorphometric analysis included the percentage of new bone contact with the implant, the area of new bone, and the percentage of defect fill. This article describes results with the PLGA carrier. RESULTS: All implants demonstrated clinical and radiographic success with the amount of new bone formed dependent on the time and presence/absence of rhBMP-2 and presence/absence of a membrane. The percentage of bone-to-implant contact was greater with rhBMP-2, and after 12 weeks of healing, there was approximately one-third of the implant contacting bone in the defect site. After 4 weeks, the presence of a membrane appeared to slow new bone area formation. The percentage of fill in membrane-treated sites with rhBMP-2 rose from 24% fill to 42% after 4 and 12 weeks, respectively. Without rhBMP-2, the percentage of fill was 14% rising to 36% fill, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: After 4 weeks, the rhBMP-2-treated sites had a significantly higher percentage of contact, more new bone area, and higher percentage of defect fill than the sites without rhBMP-2. After 12 weeks, there was no significant difference in sites with or without rhBMP-2 regarding percentage of contact, new bone area, or percentage of defect fill. In regard to these three outcomes, comparing the results with this carrier to the results reported earlier with a collagen carrier in this study, only the area of new bone was significantly different with the collagen carrier resulting in greater bone than the PLGA carrier. Thus, the PLGA carrier for rhBMP-2 significantly stimulated bone formation around dental implants in this model after 1 month but not after 3 months of healing. The use of this growth factor and carrier combination appears to stimulate early bone healing events around the implants but not quite to the same degree as a collagen carrier.

A Stratified Model for Psychosis Prediction in Clinical Practice

Objective: Impaired cognition is an important dimension in psychosis and its at-risk states. Research on the value of impaired cognition for psychosis prediction in at-risk samples, however, mainly relies on study-specific sample means of neurocognitive tests, which unlike widely available general test norms are difficult to translate into clinical practice. The aim of this study was to explore the combined predictive value of at-risk criteria and neurocognitive deficits according to test norms with a risk stratification approach. Method: Potential predictors of psychosis (neurocognitive deficits and at-risk criteria) over 24 months were investigated in 97 at-risk patients. Results: The final prediction model included (1) at-risk criteria (attenuated psychotic symptoms plus subjective cognitive disturbances) and (2) a processing speed deficit (digit symbol test). The model was stratified into 4 risk classes with hazard rates between 0.0 (both predictors absent) and 1.29 (both predictors present). Conclusions: The combination of a processing speed deficit and at-risk criteria provides an optimized stratified risk assessment. Based on neurocognitive test norms, the validity of our proposed 3 risk classes could easily be examined in independent at-risk samples and, pending positive validation results, our approach could easily be applied in clinical practice in the future.

Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction during the last millennium using multiple annual proxies

Previous studies have either exclusively used annual tree-ring data or have combined tree-ring series with other, lower temporal resolution proxy series. Both approaches can lead to significant uncertainties, as tree-rings may underestimate the amplitude of past temperature variations, and the validity of non-annual records cannot be clearly assessed. In this study, we assembled 45 published Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature proxy records covering the past millennium, each of which satisfied 3 essential criteria: the series must be of annual resolution, span at least a thousand years, and represent an explicit temperature signal. Suitable climate archives included ice cores, varved lake sediments, tree-rings and speleothems. We reconstructed the average annual land temperature series for the NH over the last millennium by applying 3 different reconstruction techniques: (1) principal components (PC) plus second-order autoregressive model (AR2), (2) composite plus scale (CPS) and (3) regularized errors-in-variables approach (EIV). Our reconstruction is in excellent agreement with 6 climate model simulations (including the first 5 models derived from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and an earth system model of intermediate complexity (LOVECLIM), showing similar temperatures at multi-decadal timescales; however, all simulations appear to underestimate the temperature during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). A comparison with other NH reconstructions shows that our results are consistent with earlier studies. These results indicate that well-validated annual proxy series should be used to minimize proxy-based artifacts, and that these proxy series contain sufficient information to reconstruct the low-frequency climate variability over the past millennium.

Evaluation of a bolus/infusion protocol for 11C-ABP688, a PET tracer for mGluR5

(11)C-ABP-688 is a selective tracer for the mGluR5 receptor. Its kinetics is fast and thus favourable for an equilibrium approach to determine receptor-related parameters. The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that the pattern of the (11)C-ABP688 uptake using a bolus-plus-infusion (B/I) protocol at early time points corresponds to the perfusion and at a later time point to the total distribution volume. METHODS: A bolus and a B/I study (1 h each) was performed in five healthy male volunteers. With the B/I protocol, early and late scans were normalized to gray matter, cerebellum and white matter. The same normalization was done on the maps of the total distribution volume (Vt) and K(1) which were calculated in the study with bolus only injection and the Logan method (Vt) and a two-tissue compartment model (K(1)). RESULTS: There was an excellent correlation close to the identity line between the pattern of the late uptake in the B/I study and Vt of the bolus-only study for all three normalizations. The pattern of the early uptake in the B/I study correlated well with the K(1) maps, but only when normalized to gray matter and cerebellum, not to white matter. CONCLUSION: It is demonstrated that with a B/I protocol the (11)C-ABP688 distribution in late scans reflects the pattern of the total distribution volume and is therefore a measure for the density pattern of mGluR5. The early scans following injection are related to blood flow, although not in a fully quantitative manner. The advantage of the B/I protocol is that no arterial blood sampling is required, which is advantageous in clinical studies.

Interhemispheric coupling, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and warm Antarctic interglacials

Ice core evidence indicates that even though atmospheric CO2 concentrations did not exceed ~300 ppm at any point during the last 800 000 years, East Antarctica was at least ~3–4 °C warmer than preindustrial (CO2~280 ppm) in each of the last four interglacials. During the previous three interglacials, this anomalous warming was short lived (~3000 years) and apparently occurred before the completion of Northern Hemisphere deglaciation. Hereafter, we refer to these periods as "Warmer than Present Transients" (WPTs). We present a series of experiments to investigate the impact of deglacial meltwater on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Antarctic temperature. It is well known that a slowed AMOC would increase southern sea surface temperature (SST) through the bipolar seesaw and observational data suggests that the AMOC remained weak throughout the terminations preceding WPTs, strengthening rapidly at a time which coincides closely with peak Antarctic temperature. We present two 800 kyr transient simulations using the Intermediate Complexity model GENIE-1 which demonstrate that meltwater forcing generates transient southern warming that is consistent with the timing of WPTs, but is not sufficient (in this single parameterisation) to reproduce the magnitude of observed warmth. In order to investigate model and boundary condition uncertainty, we present three ensembles of transient GENIE-1 simulations across Termination II (135 000 to 124 000 BP) and three snapshot HadCM3 simulations at 130 000 BP. Only with consideration of the possible feedback of West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) retreat does it become possible to simulate the magnitude of observed warming.

Moving along the mental number line: Interactions between whole-body motion and numerical cognition

Active head turns to the left and right have recently been shown to influence numerical cognition by shifting attention along the mental number line. In the present study, we found that passive whole-body motion influences numerical cognition. In a random-number generation task (Experiment 1), leftward and downward displacement of participants facilitated small number generation, whereas rightward and upward displacement facilitated the generation of large numbers. Influences of leftward and rightward motion were also found for the processing of auditorily presented numbers in a magnitude-judgment task (Experiment 2). Additionally, we investigated the reverse effect of the number-space association (Experiment 3). Participants were displaced leftward or rightward and asked to detect motion direction as fast as possible while small or large numbers were auditorily presented. When motion detection was difficult, leftward motion was detected faster when hearing small number and rightward motion when hearing large number. We provide new evidence that bottom-up vestibular activation is sufficient to interact with the higher-order spatial representation underlying numerical cognition. The results show that action planning or motor activity is not necessary to influence spatial attention. Moreover, our results suggest that self-motion perception and numerical cognition can mutually influence each other.

Practicability of nitrogen multiple-breath washout measurements in a pediatric cystic fibrosis outpatient setting

BACKGROUND: Although lung clearance index (LCI) is a sensitive indicator of mild cystic fibrosis (CF) lung disease, it is rarely measured due to lengthy protocols and the commercial unavailability of multiple-breath washout (MBW) setups and tracer gases. We used a newly validated, commercially available nitrogen (N(2) ) MBW setup to assess success rate, duration, and variability of LCI within a 20 min timeframe, during clinical routine. We also evaluated the relationship between LCI and other clinical markers of CF lung disease. METHODS: One hundred thirty six children (83 with CF) between 4 and 16 years were studied in a pediatric CF outpatient setting. One hundred eighteen out of 136 children were naïve to MBW. Within 20 min, each child was trained, N(2) MBW was performed, and LCI was analyzed. We assessed intra- and between-test reproducibility in a subgroup of children. RESULTS: At least one LCI was feasible in 123 (90%) children, with a mean (range) of 3.3 (1.2-6.4) min per test. Two or more measurements were feasible in 56 (41%) children. Comparing LCI in CF versus controls, LCI mean (SD) was 12.0 (3.9) versus 6.1 (0.9), and the intra- and inter-test coefficient of repeatability was 1.00 versus 0.81 and 0.96 versus 0.62, respectively. LCI was correlated with spirometry, blood gases, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa infection. CONCLUSIONS: Using available N(2) MBW equipment, LCI measurements are practical and fast in children. LCI is correlated with markers of CF lung disease. Longer timeframes would be required for triplicate N(2) MBW tests in inexperienced children. Pediatr Pulmonol. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.