Synoptic drivers of 400 years of summer temperature and precipitation variability on Mt. Olympus, Greece

The Mediterranean region has been identified as a global warming hotspot, where future climate impacts are expected to have significant consequences on societal and ecosystem well-being. To put ongoing trends of summer climate into the context of past natural variability, we reconstructed climate from maximum latewood density (MXD) measurements of Pinus heldreichii (1521–2010) and latewood width (LWW) of Pinus nigra (1617–2010) on Mt. Olympus, Greece. Previous research in the northeastern Mediterranean has primarily focused on inter-annual variability, omitting any low-frequency trends. The present study utilizes methods capable of retaining climatically driven long-term behavior of tree growth. The LWW chronology corresponds closely to early summer moisture variability (May–July, r = 0.65, p < 0.001, 1950–2010), whereas the MXD-chronology relates mainly to late summer warmth (July–September, r = 0.64, p < 0.001; 1899–2010). The chronologies show opposing patterns of decadal variability over the twentieth century (r = −0.68, p < 0.001) and confirm the importance of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (sNAO) for summer climate in the northeastern Mediterranean, with positive sNAO phases inducing cold anomalies and enhanced cloudiness and precipitation. The combined reconstructions document the late twentieth—early twenty-first century warming and drying trend, but indicate generally drier early summer and cooler late summer conditions in the period ~1700–1900 CE. Our findings suggest a potential decoupling between twentieth century atmospheric circulation patterns and pre-industrial climate variability. Furthermore, the range of natural climate variability stretches beyond summer moisture availabilityobserved in recent decades and thus lends credibility to the significant drying trends projected for this region in current Earth System Model simulations.

Stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in tree rings show physiological responses of Pericopsis elata to precipitation in the Congo Basin

In equatorial regions, where tree rings are less distinct or even absent, the response of forests to high-frequency climate variability is poorly understood. We measured stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in anatomically distinct, annual growth rings of four Pericopsis elata trees from a plantation in the Congo Basin, to assess their sensitivity to recorded changes in precipitation over the last 50 y. Our results suggest that oxygen isotopes have high common signal strength (EPS = 0.74), and respond to multi-annual precipitation variability at the regional scale, with low δ18O values (28–29‰) during wetter conditions (1960–1970). Conversely, δ13C are mostly related to growth variation, which in a light-demanding species are driven by competition for light. Differences in δ13C values between fast- and slow-growing trees (c. 2‰), result in low common signal strength (EPS = 0.37) and are driven by micro-site conditions rather than by climate. This study highlights the potential for understanding the causes of growth variation in P. elata as well as past hydroclimatic changes, in a climatically complex region characterized by a bimodal distribution in precipitation.

The importance of ship log data: reconstructing North Atlantic, European and Mediterranean sea level pressure fields back to 1750

Local to regional climate anomalies are to a large extent determined by the state of the atmospheric circulation. The knowledge of large-scale sea level pressure (SLP) variations in former times is therefore crucial when addressing past climate changes across Europe and the Mediterranean. However, currently available SLP reconstructions lack data from the ocean, particularly in the pre-1850 period. Here we present a new statistically-derived 5° × 5° resolved gridded seasonal SLP dataset covering the eastern North Atlantic, Europe and the Mediterranean area (40°W–50°E; 20°N–70°N) back to 1750 using terrestrial instrumental pressure series and marine wind information from ship logbooks. For the period 1750–1850, the new SLP reconstruction provides a more accurate representation of the strength of the winter westerlies as well as the location and variability of the Azores High than currently available multiproxy pressure field reconstructions. These findings strongly support the potential of ship logbooks as an important source to determine past circulation variations especially for the pre-1850 period. This new dataset can be further used for dynamical studies relating large-scale atmospheric circulation to temperature and precipitation variability over the Mediterranean and Eurasia, for the comparison with outputs from GCMs as well as for detection and attribution studies.

Climate and human impact during the past 2000 years as recorded in the Lagunas de Yala, Jujuy, northwestern Argentina

210Pb, 137Cs and 14C dated sediments of two late Holocene landslide lakes in the Provincial Park Lagunas de Yala (Laguna Rodeo, Laguna Comedero, 24°06′S, 65°30′W, 2100 m asl, northwestern Argentina) reveal a high-resolution multi-proxy data set of climate change and human impact for the past ca. 2000 years. Comparison of the lake sediment data set for the 20th century (sediment mass accumulation rates MARs, pollen spectra, nutrient and charcoal fluxes) with independent dendroecological data from the catchment (fire scars, tree growth) and long regional precipitation series (from 1934 onwards) show that (1) the lake sediment data set is internally highly consistent and compares well with independent data sets, (2) the chronology of the sediment is reliable, (3) large fires (1940s, 1983/1984–1989) as documented in the local fire scar frequency are recorded in the charcoal flux to the lake sediments and coincide with low wet-season precipitation rates (e.g., 1940s, 1983/1984) and/or high interannual precipitation variability (late 1940s), and (4) the regional increase in precipitation after 1970 is recorded in an increase in the MARs (L. Rodeo from 100 to 390 mg cm−2 yr−1) and in an increase in fern spores reflecting wet vegetation. The most significant change in MARs and nutrient fluxes (Corg and P) of the past 2000 years is observed with the transition from the Inca Empire to the Spanish Conquest around 1600 AD. Compared with the pre-17th century conditions, MARs increased by a factor of ca. 5 to >8 (to 800 +130, −280 mg cm−2 yr−1), PO4 fluxes increased by a factor of 7, and Corg fluxes by a factor of 10.5 for the time between 1640 and 1930 AD. 17th to 19th century MARs and nutrient fluxes also exceed 20th century values. Excess Pb deposition as indicated by a significant increase in Pb/Zr and Pb/Rb ratios in the sediments after the 1950s coincides with a rapid expansion of the regional mining industry. Excess Pb is interpreted as atmospheric deposition and direct human impact due to Pb smelting.

On the variability of return periods of European winter precipitation extremes over the last three centuries

We investigate the changes of extreme European winter (December-February) precipitation back to 1700 and show for various European regions that return periods of extremely wet and dry winters are subject to significant changes both before and after the onset of anthropogenic influences. Generally, winter precipitation has become more extreme. We also examine the spatial pattern of the changes of the extremes covering the last 300 years where data quality is sufficient. Over central and Eastern Europe dry winters occurred more frequently during the 18th and the second part of the 19th century relative to 1951–2000. Dry winters were less frequent during both the 18th and 19th century over the British Isles and the Mediterranean. Wet winters have been less abundant during the last three centuries compared to 1951–2000 except during the early 18th century in central Europe. Although winter precipitation extremes are affected by climate change, no obvious connection of these changes was found to solar, volcanic or anthropogenic forcing. However, physically meaningful interpretation with atmospheric circulation changes was possible.

Climate variability of the mid- and high-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in ensemble simulations from 1500 to 2000 AD

To increase the sparse knowledge of long-term Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate variability, we assess an ensemble of 4 transient simulations over the last 500 yr performed with a state-of-the-art atmosphere ocean general circulation model. The model is forced with reconstructions of solar irradiance, greenhouse gas (GHG) and volcanic aerosol concentrations. A 1990 control simulation shows that the model is able to represent the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and to some extent the South Pacific Dipole (SPD) and the Zonal Wave 3 (ZW3). During the past 500 yr we find that SPD and ZW3 variability remain stable, whereas SAM shows a significant shift towards its positive state during the 20th century. Regional temperatures over South America are strongly influenced by changing both GHG concentrations and volcanic eruptions, whereas precipitation shows no significant response to the varying external forcing. For temperature this stands in contrast to proxy records, suggesting that SH climate is dominated by internal variability rather than external forcing. The underlying dynamics of the temperature changes generally point to a combination of several modes, thus, hampering the possibilities of regional reconstructing the modes from proxy records. The linear imprint of the external forcing is as expected, i.e. a warming for increase in the combined solar and GHG forcing and a cooling after volcanic eruptions. Dynamically, only the increase in SAM with increased combined forcing is simulated.

Mineralogy-based quantitative precipitation and temperature reconstructions from annually laminated lake sediments (Swiss Alps) since AD 1580

[1] We present quantitative autumn, summer and annual precipitation and summer temperature reconstructions from proglacial annually laminated Lake Silvaplana, eastern Swiss Alps back to AD 1580. We used X-ray diffraction peak intensity ratios of minerals in the sediment layers (quartz qz, plagioclase pl, amphibole am, mica mi) that are diagnostic for different source areas and hydro-meteorological transport processes in the catchment. XRD data were calibrated with meteorological data (AD 1800/1864–1950) and revealed significant correlations: mi/pl with SON precipitation (r = 0.56, p < 0.05) and MJJAS precipitation (r = 0.66, p < 0.01); qz/mi with MJJAS temperature (r = −0.72, p < 0.01)and qz/am with annual precipitation (r = −0.54, p < 0.05). Geological catchment settings and hydro-meteorological processes provide deterministic explanations for the correlations. Our summer temperature reconstruction reproduces the typical features of past climate variability known from independent data sets. The precipitation reconstructions show a LIA climate moister than today. Exceptionally wet periods in our reconstruction coincide with regional glacier advances.

1200 years of decadal-scale variability of Mediterranean vegetation and climate at Pantelleria Island, Italy

A new sedimentary sequence from Lago di Venere on Pantelleria Island, located in the Strait of Sicily between Tunisia and Sicily was recovered. The lake is located in the coastal infra-Mediterranean vegetation belt at 2 m a.s.l. Pollen, charcoal and sedimentological analyses are used to explore linkages among vegetation, fire and climate at a decadal scale over the past 1200 years. A dry period from ad 800 to 1000 that corresponds to the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ (WMP) is inferred from sedimentological analysis. The high content of carbonate recorded in this period suggests a dry phase, when the ratio of evaporation/precipitation was high. During this period the island was dominated by thermophilous and drought-tolerant taxa, such as Quercus ilex, Olea, Pistacia and Juniperus. A marked shift in the sediment properties is recorded at ad 1000, when carbonate content became very low suggesting wetter conditions until ad 1850–1900. Broadly, this period coincides with the ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA), which was characterized by wetter and colder conditions in Europe. During this time rather mesic conifers (i.e. Pinus pinaster), shrubs and herbs (e.g. Erica arborea and Selaginella denticulata) expanded, whereas more drought-adapted species (e.g. Q. ilex) declined. Charcoal data suggest enhanced fire activity during the LIA probably as a consequence of anthropogenic burning and/or more flammable fuel (e.g. resinous Pinus biomass). The last century was characterized by a shift to high carbonate content, indicating a change towards drier conditions, and re-expansion of Q. ilex and Olea. The post-LIA warming is in agreement with historical documents and meteorological time series. Vegetation dynamics were co-determined by agricultural activities on the island. Anthropogenic indicators (e.g. Cerealia-type, Sporormiella) reveal the importance of crops and grazing on the island. Our pollen data suggest that extensive logging caused the local extinction of deciduous Quercus pubescens around ad1750.

Snow variability in the Swiss Alps 1864-2009

We present a climate analysis of nine unique Swiss Alpine new snow series that have been newly digitized. The stations cover different altitudes (450–1860 m asl) and all time series cover more than 100 years (one from 1864 to 2009). In addition, data from 71 stations for the last 50–80 years for new snow and snow depth are analysed to get a more complete picture of the Swiss Alpine snow variability. Important snow climate indicators such as new snow sums (NSS), maximum new snow (MAXNS) and days with snowfall (DWSF) are calculated and variability and trends analysed. Series of days with snow pack (DWSP) ≥ 1 cm are reconstructed with useful quality for six stations using the daily new snow, local temperature and precipitation data. Our results reveal large decadal variability with phases of low and high values for NSS, DWSF and DWSP. For most stations NSS, DWSF and DWSP show the lowest values recorded and unprecedented negative trends in the late 1980s and 1990s. For MAXNS, however, no clear trends and smaller decadal variability are found but very large MAXNS values (>60 cm) are missing since the year 2000. The fraction of NSS and DWSP in different seasons (autumn, winter and spring) has changed only slightly over the ∼150 year record. Some decreases most likely attributable to temperature changes in the last 50 years are found for spring, especially for NSS at low stations. Both the NSS and DWSP snow indicators show a trend reversal in most recent years (since 2000), especially at low and medium altitudes. This is consistent with the recent ‘plateauing’ (i.e. slight relative decrease) of mean winter temperature in Switzerland and illustrates how important decadal variability is in understanding the trends in key snow indicators.

Climatic variability during the last interglacial inferred from geochemical proxies in the Lake El'gygytgyn sediment record

The Last Interglacial Period (LIP) is often regarded as a good analogue for potential climatic conditions under predicted global warming scenarios. Despite this, there is still debate over the nature, duration and frequency of climatic changes during this period. One particularly contentious issue has been the apparent evidence of climatic instability identified in many marine cores but seemingly lacking from many terrestrial archives, especially within the Arctic, a key region for global climate change research. In this paper, geochemical records from Lake El'gygytgyn, north-eastern Russia, are used to infer past climatic changes during the LIP from within the high Arctic. With a sampling resolution of ~20–~90 years, these records offer the potential for detailed, high-resolution palaeoclimate reconstruction. This study shows that the LIP commenced in central Chukotka ~129 thousand years ago (ka), with the warmest climatic conditions occurring between ~128 and 127 ka before being interrupted by a short-lived cold reversal. Mild climatic conditions then persisted until ~122 ka when a marked reduction in the sedimentation rate suggests a decrease in precipitation. A further climatic deterioration at ~118 ka marks the return to glacial conditions. This study highlights the value of incorporating several geochemical proxies when inferring past climatic conditions, thus providing the potential to identify signals related to environmental change within the catchment. We also demonstrate the importance of considering how changes in sedimentation rate influence proxy records, in order to develop robust palaeoenvironmental reconstructions.

Detailed insight into Arctic climatic variability during MIS 11c at Lake El'gygytgyn, NE Russia

Here we present a detailed multi-proxy record of the climate and environmental evolution at Lake El'gygytgyn, Far East Russian Arctic during the period 430–395 ka covering the marine isotope stage (MIS) 12/11 transition and the thermal maximum of super interglacial MIS 11c. The MIS 12/11 transition at Lake El'gygytgyn is characterized by initial warming followed by a cold reversal implying similarities to the last deglaciation. The thermal maximum of MIS 11c is characterized by full and remarkably stable interglacial conditions with mean temperatures of the warmest month (MTWM) ranging between ca. 10–15 °C; annual precipitation (PANN) ranging between ca. 300–600 mm; strong in-lake productivity coinciding with dark coniferous forests in the catchment; annual disintegration of the lake ice cover; and full mixis of the water column. Such conditions persisted, according to our age model, for ca. 27 ± 8 kyr between ca. 425–398 ka. The Lake El'gygytgyn record closely resembles the climate pattern recorded in Lake Baikal (SE Siberia) sediments and Antarctic ice cores, implying interhemispheric climate connectivity during MIS 11c.

Recent trends in Inner Asian forest dynamics to temperature and precipitation indicate high sensitivity to climate change

Semi-arid ecosystems play an important role in regulating global climate with the fate of these ecosystems in the Anthropocene depending upon interactions among temperature, precipitation, and CO2. However, in cool-arid environments, precipitation is not the only limitation to forest productivity. Interactions between changes in precipitation and air temperature may enhance soil moisture stress while simultaneously extending growing season length, with unclear consequences for net carbon uptake. This study evaluates recent trends in productivity and phenology of Inner Asian forests (in Mongolia and Northern China) using satellite remote sensing, dendrochronology, and dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulations to quantify the sensitivity of forest dynamics to decadal climate variability and trends. Trends in photosynthetically active radiation fraction (FPAR) between 1982 and 2010 show a greening of about 7% of the region in spring (March, April, May), and 3% of the area ‘browning’ during summertime (June, July, August). These satellite observations of FPAR are corroborated by trends in NPP simulated by the LPJ DGVM. Spring greening trends in FPAR are mainly explained by long-term trends in precipitation whereas summer browning trends are correlated with decreasing precipitation. Tree ring data from 25 sites confirm annual growth increments are mainly limited by summer precipitation (June, July, August) in Mongolia, and spring precipitation in northern China (March, April, May), with relatively weak prior-year lag effects. An ensemble of climate projections from the IPCC CMIP3 models indicates that warming temperatures (spring, summer) are expected to be associated with higher summer precipitation, which combined with CO2 causes large increases in NPP and possibly even greater forest cover in the Mongolian steppe. In the absence of a strong direct CO2 fertilization effect on plant growth (e.g., due to nutrient limitation), water stress or decreased carbon gain from higher autotrophic respiration results in decreased productivity and loss of forest cover. The fate of these semi-arid ecosystems thus appears to hinge upon the magnitude and subtleties of CO2 fertilization effects, for which experimental observations in arid systems are needed to test and refine vegetation models.

Mid- to late Holocene Indian Ocean Monsoon variability recorded in four speleothems from Socotra Island, Yemen

Four stalagmites covering the last 7.0 ka were sampled on Socotra, an island in the northern Indian Ocean to investigate the evolution of the northeast Indian Ocean Monsoon (IOM) since the mid Holocene. On Socotra, rain is delivered at the start of the southwest IOM in May–June and at the start of the northeast IOM from September to December. The Haggeher Mountains act as a barrier forcing precipitation brought by the northeast winds to fall preferentially on the eastern side of the island, where the studied caves are located. δ18O and δ13C and Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca signals in the stalagmites reflect precipitation amounts brought by the northeast winds. For stalagmite STM6, this amount effect is amplified by kinetic effects during calcite deposition. Combined interpretation of the stalagmites' signals suggest a weakening of the northeast precipitation between 6.0 and 3.8 ka. After 3.8 ka precipitation intensities remain constant with two superimposed drier periods, between 0 and 0.6 ka and from 2.2 to 3.8 ka. No link can be established with Greenland ice cores and with the summer IOM variability. In contrast to the stable northeast rainy season suggested by the records in this study, speleothem records from western Socotra indicate a wettening of the southwest rainy season on Socotra after 4.4 ka. The local wettening of western Socotra could relate to a more southerly path (more over the Indian Ocean) taken by the southwest winds. Stalagmite STM5, sampled at the fringe between both rain areas displays intermediate δ18O values. After 6.2 ka, similar precipitation changes are seen between eastern Socotra and northern Oman indicating that both regions are affected similarly by the monsoon. Different palaeoclimatologic records from the Arabian Peninsula currently located outside the ITCZ migration pathway display an abrupt drying around 6 ka due to their disconnection from the southwest rain influence. Records that are nowadays still receiving rain by the southwest winds, suggest a more gradual drying reflecting the weakening of the southwest monsoon.