Large deviations for heavy-tailed random elements in convex cones

We prove large deviation results for sums of heavy-tailed random elements in rather general convex cones being semigroups equipped with a rescaling operation by positive real numbers. In difference to previous results for the cone of convex sets, our technique does not use the embedding of cones in linear spaces. Examples include the cone of convex sets with the Minkowski addition, positive half-line with maximum operation and the family of square integrable functions with arithmetic addition and argument rescaling.

Simple beam models for Monte Carlo photon beam dose calculations in radiotherapy

Monte Carlo (code GEANT) produced 6 and 15 MV phase space (PS) data were used to define several simple photon beam models. For creating the PS data the energy of starting electrons hitting the target was tuned to get correct depth dose data compared to measurements. The modeling process used the full PS information within the geometrical boundaries of the beam including all scattered radiation of the accelerator head. Scattered radiation outside the boundaries was neglected. Photons and electrons were assumed to be radiated from point sources. Four different models were investigated which involved different ways to determine the energies and locations of beam particles in the output plane. Depth dose curves, profiles, and relative output factors were calculated with these models for six field sizes from 5x5 to 40x40cm2 and compared to measurements. Model 1 uses a photon energy spectrum independent of location in the PS plane and a constant photon fluence in this plane. Model 2 takes into account the spatial particle fluence distribution in the PS plane. A constant fluence is used again in model 3, but the photon energy spectrum depends upon the off axis position. Model 4, finally uses the spatial particle fluence distribution and off axis dependent photon energy spectra in the PS plane. Depth dose curves and profiles for field sizes up to 10x10cm2 were not model sensitive. Good agreement between measured and calculated depth dose curves and profiles for all field sizes was reached for model 4. However, increasing deviations were found for increasing field sizes for models 1-3. Large deviations resulted for the profiles of models 2 and 3. This is due to the fact that these models overestimate and underestimate the energy fluence at large off axis distances. Relative output factors consistent with measurements resulted only for model 4.

Does hyoid bone resection according to Sistrunk influence normal craniofacial growth? A cephalometric study

PURPOSE: To retrospectively evaluate the influence of hyoid bone resection according to Sistrunk in early age due to a thyroglossal duct cyst on craniofacial growth. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively examined 10 patients (2 females and 8 males) having had hyoid bone resection according to Sistrunk due to thyroglossal duct cysts by lateral cephalograms taken before orthodontic treatment (mean, 17.1 years; range, 8.6-31.9 years). Surgery was carried out at a mean age of 4.4 years (range, 0.37-9.8 years). All lateral cephalograms were evaluated and traced by hand. Descriptive statistics were calculated, and data from each patient were compared individually with corresponding standard values (age and gender) from Bathia and Leighton. RESULTS: With regard to sagittal parameters, the SNB angles were by trend too small and the ANB angles were too large. However, the ratio of mandibular to maxillary length showed that the patients had a mandible that was too large or maxilla that was too small. With regard to vertical parameters, large deviations from normal values in both directions (hyperdivergent to hypodivergent pattern) could be detected when we analyzed NSL/ML', NL/ML', and NSL/NL. With regard to dental parameters, the majority of the patients had retroclined upper (IsL/NL, IsL/N-A) and lower (IiL/ML, IiL/N-B) incisors. CONCLUSIONS: Several vertical and horizontal skeletal and dental cephalometric parameters were shown to be different by trend when compared with control values. A possible negative impact on craniofacial growth potential and direction as a result of hyoid resection in early age according to Sistrunk cannot be excluded.

Disentangling human tolerance and resistance against HIV.

In ecology, "disease tolerance" is defined as an evolutionary strategy of hosts against pathogens, characterized by reduced or absent pathogenesis despite high pathogen load. To our knowledge, tolerance has to date not been quantified and disentangled from host resistance to disease in any clinically relevant human infection. Using data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, we investigated if there is variation in tolerance to HIV in humans and if this variation is associated with polymorphisms in the human genome. In particular, we tested for associations between tolerance and alleles of the Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) genes, the CC chemokine receptor 5 (CCR5), the age at which individuals were infected, and their sex. We found that HLA-B alleles associated with better HIV control do not confer tolerance. The slower disease progression associated with these alleles can be fully attributed to the extent of viral load reduction in carriers. However, we observed that tolerance significantly varies across HLA-B genotypes with a relative standard deviation of 34%. Furthermore, we found that HLA-B homozygotes are less tolerant than heterozygotes. Lastly, tolerance was observed to decrease with age, resulting in a 1.7-fold difference in disease progression between 20 and 60-y-old individuals with the same viral load. Thus, disease tolerance is a feature of infection with HIV, and the identification of the mechanisms involved may pave the way to a better understanding of pathogenesis.

Saddlepoint Approximations to the Probability of Ruin in Finite Time for the Compound Poisson Risk Process Perturbed by Diffusion

A large deviations type approximation to the probability of ruin within a finite time for the compound Poisson risk process perturbed by diffusion is derived. This approximation is based on the saddlepoint method and generalizes the approximation for the non-perturbed risk process by Barndorff-Nielsen and Schmidli (Scand Actuar J 1995(2):169–186, 1995). An importance sampling approximation to this probability of ruin is also provided. Numerical illustrations assess the accuracy of the saddlepoint approximation using importance sampling as a benchmark. The relative deviations between saddlepoint approximation and importance sampling are very small, even for extremely small probabilities of ruin. The saddlepoint approximation is however substantially faster to compute.

Saddlepoint approximations

The saddlepoint method provides accurate approximations for the distributions of many test statistics, estimators and for important probabilities arising in various stochastic models. The saddlepoint approximation is a large deviations technique which is substantially more accurate than limiting normal or Edgeworth approximations, especially in presence of very small sample sizes or very small probabilities. The outstanding accuracy of the saddlepoint approximation can be explained by the fact that it has bounded relative error.

Eco-evolutionary Dynamics of Individual-Based Food Webs

The past decade has seen the rise of high resolution datasets. One of the main surprises of analysing such data has been the discovery of a large genetic, phenotypic and behavioural variation and heterogeneous metabolic rates among individuals within natural populations. A parallel discovery from theory and experiments has shown a strong temporal convergence between evolutionary and ecological dynamics, but a general framework to analyse from individual-level processes the convergence between ecological and evolutionary dynamics and its implications for patterns of biodiversity in food webs has been particularly lacking. Here, as a first approximation to take into account intraspecific variability and the convergence between the ecological and evolutionary dynamics in large food webs, we develop a model from population genomics and microevolutionary processes that uses sexual reproduction, genetic-distance-based speciation and trophic interactions. We confront the model with the prey consumption per individual predator, species-level connectance and prey–predator diversity in several environmental situations using a large food web with approximately 25,000 sampled prey and predator individuals. We show higher than expected diversity of abundant species in heterogeneous environmental conditions and strong deviations from the observed distribution of individual prey consumption (i.e. individual connectivity per predator) in all the environmental conditions. The observed large variance in individual prey consumption regardless of the environmental variability collapsed species-level connectance after small increases in sampling effort. These results suggest (1) intraspecific variance in prey–predator interactions has a strong effect on the macroscopic properties of food webs and (2) intraspecific variance is a potential driver regulating the speed of the convergence between ecological and evolutionary dynamics in species-rich food webs. These results also suggest that genetic–ecological drift driven by sexual reproduction, equal feeding rate among predator individuals, mutations and genetic-distance-based speciation can be used as a neutral food web dynamics test to detect the ecological and microevolutionary processes underlying the observed patterns of individual and species-based food webs at local and macroecological scales.

Genome-wide investigation reveals high evolutionary rates in annual model plants

Background: ;Rates of molecular evolution vary widely among species. While significant deviations from molecular clock have been found in many taxa, effects of life histories on molecular evolution are not fully understood. In plants, annual/perennial life history traits have long been suspected to influence the evolutionary rates at the molecular level. To date, however, the number of genes investigated on this subject is limited and the conclusions are mixed. To evaluate the possible heterogeneity in evolutionary rates between annual and perennial plants at the genomic level, we investigated 85 nuclear housekeeping genes, 10 non-housekeeping families, and 34 chloroplast;genes using the genomic data from model plants including Arabidopsis thaliana and Medicago truncatula for annuals and grape (Vitis vinifera) and popular (Populus trichocarpa) for perennials.;Results: ;According to the cross-comparisons among the four species, 74-82% of the nuclear genes and 71-97% of the chloroplast genes suggested higher rates of molecular evolution in the two annuals than those in the two perennials. The significant heterogeneity in evolutionary rate between annuals and perennials was consistently found both in nonsynonymous sites and synonymous sites. While a linear correlation of evolutionary rates in orthologous genes between species was observed in nonsynonymous sites, the correlation was weak or invisible in synonymous sites. This tendency was clearer in nuclear genes than in chloroplast genes, in which the overall;evolutionary rate was small. The slope of the regression line was consistently lower than unity, further confirming the higher evolutionary rate in annuals at the genomic level.;Conclusions: ;The higher evolutionary rate in annuals than in perennials appears to be a universal phenomenon both in nuclear and chloroplast genomes in the four dicot model plants we investigated. Therefore, such heterogeneity in evolutionary rate should result from factors that have genome-wide influence, most likely those associated with annual/perennial life history. Although we acknowledge current limitations of this kind of study, mainly due to a small sample size available and a distant taxonomic relationship of the model organisms, our results indicate that the genome-wide survey is a promising approach toward further understanding of the;mechanism determining the molecular evolutionary rate at the genomic level.

Targeting siglecs--a novel pharmacological strategy for immuno- and glycotherapy

The immune system must be tightly held in check to avoid bystander tissue damage as well as autoreactivity caused by overwhelming immune reactions. A novel family of immunoregulatory, carbohydrate-binding receptors, the Siglecs (sialic acid binding immunoglobulin-like lectins), has received particular attention in light of their capacity to mediate cell death, anti-proliferative effects and to regulate a variety of cellular activities. Siglec receptors are mainly expressed on leukocytes in a cell type-specific and differentiation-dependent manner. Siglecs might potentially be exploited as targets of novel immune- and glycotherapeutics for cell-directed therapies in autoimmune and allergic diseases, as well as in haematologic malignancies. Here we present novel insights on structural and functional characteristics, expression patterns and evolutionary aspects of Siglecs and their ligands. Pharmacological strategies using Siglec agonistic cross-linking therapeutics, such as monoclonal or engineered antibodies, intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG), or glycomimetics are discussed. Modulation of immune responses by targeting Siglecs using agonistic or antagonistic therapeutics may have important clinical implications and may pave the way for novel pharmacological avenues for the treatment of autoimmune and allergic diseases or for tumor immunotherapy.

Citizen science reveals unexpected continental-scale evolutionary change in a model organism

Organisms provide some of the most sensitive indicators of climate change and evolutionary responses are becoming apparent in species with short generation times. Large datasets on genetic polymorphism that can provide an historical benchmark against which to test for recent evolutionary responses are very rare, but an exception is found in the brown-lipped banded snail (Cepaea nemoralis). This species is sensitive to its thermal environment and exhibits several polymorphisms of shell colour and banding pattern affecting shell albedo in the majority of populations within its native range in Europe. We tested for evolutionary changes in shell albedo that might have been driven by the warming of the climate in Europe over the last half century by compiling an historical dataset for 6,515 native populations of C. nemoralis and comparing this with new data on nearly 3,000 populations. The new data were sampled mainly in 2009 through the Evolution MegaLab, a citizen science project that engaged thousands of volunteers in 15 countries throughout Europe in the biggest such exercise ever undertaken. A known geographic cline in the frequency of the colour phenotype with the highest albedo (yellow) was shown to have persisted and a difference in colour frequency between woodland and more open habitats was confirmed, but there was no general increase in the frequency of yellow shells. This may have been because snails adapted to a warming climate through behavioural thermoregulation. By contrast, we detected an unexpected decrease in the frequency of Unbanded shells and an increase in the Mid-banded morph. Neither of these evolutionary changes appears to be a direct response to climate change, indicating that the influence of other selective agents, possibly related to changing predation pressure and habitat change with effects on micro-climate.

Spatial and temporal variation in population genetic structure of wild Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) across Africa

Background: Reconstructing the evolutionary history of a species is challenging. It often depends not only on the past biogeographic and climatic events but also the contemporary and ecological factors, such as current connectivity and habitat heterogeneity. In fact, these factors might interact with each other and shape the current species distribution. However, to what extent the current population genetic structure reflects the past and the contemporary factors is largely unknown. Here we investigated spatio-temporal genetic structures of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) populations, across their natural distribution in Africa. While its large biogeographic distribution can cause genetic differentiation at the paleo-biogeographic scales, its restricted dispersal capacity might induce a strong genetic structure at micro-geographic scales. Results: Using nine microsatellite loci and 350 samples from ten natural populations, we found the highest genetic differentiation among the three ichthyofaunal provinces and regions (Ethiopian, Nilotic and Sudano-Sahelian) (R(ST) = 0.38 - 0.69). This result suggests the predominant effect of paleo-geographic events at macro-geographic scale. In addition, intermediate divergences were found between rivers and lakes within the regions, presumably reflecting relatively recent interruptions of gene flow between hydrographic basins (R(ST) = 0.24 - 0.32). The lowest differentiations were observed among connected populations within a basin (R(ST) = 0.015 in the Volta basin). Comparison of temporal sample series revealed subtle changes in the gene pools in a few generations (F = 0 - 0.053). The estimated effective population sizes were 23 - 143 and the estimated migration rate was moderate (m similar to 0.094 - 0.097) in the Volta populations. Conclusions: This study revealed clear hierarchical patterns of the population genetic structuring of O. niloticus in Africa. The effects of paleo-geographic and climatic events were predominant at macro-geographic scale, and the significant effect of geographic connectivity was detected at micro-geographic scale. The estimated effective population size, the moderate level of dispersal and the rapid temporal change in genetic composition might reflect a potential effect of life history strategy on population dynamics. This hypothesis deserves further investigation. The dynamic pattern revealed at micro-geographic and temporal scales appears important from a genetic resource management as well as from a biodiversity conservation point of view.

Fingerprints of changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle in response to large reorganizations in ocean circulation

CO2 and carbon cycle changes in the land, ocean and atmosphere are investigated using the comprehensive carbon cycle-climate model NCAR CSM1.4-carbon. Ensemble simulations are forced with freshwater perturbations applied at the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean deep water formation sites under pre-industrial climate conditions. As a result, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation reduces in each experiment to varying degrees. The physical climate fields show changes qualitatively in agreement with results documented in the literature, but there is a clear distinction between northern and southern perturbations. Changes in the physical variables, in turn, affect the land and ocean biogeochemical cycles and cause a reduction, or an increase, in the atmospheric CO2 concentration by up to 20 ppmv, depending on the location of the perturbation. In the case of a North Atlantic perturbation, the land biosphere reacts with a strong reduction in carbon stocks in some tropical locations and in high northern latitudes. In contrast, land carbon stocks tend to increase in response to a southern perturbation. The ocean is generally a sink of carbon although large reorganizations occur throughout various basins. The response of the land biosphere is strongest in the tropical regions due to a shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The carbon fingerprints of this shift, either to the south or to the north depending on where the freshwater is applied, can be found most clearly in South America. For this reason, a compilation of various paleoclimate proxy records of Younger Dryas precipitation changes are compared with our model results. The proxy records, in general, show good agreement with the model's response to a North Atlantic freshwater perturbation.

The evolutionary importance of cell ratio between notochordal and nucleus pulposus cells: an experimental 3-D co-culture study

Notochordal cells and nucleus pulposus cells are co-existing in the intervertebral disc at various ratios among different mammalians. This fact rises the question about the interactions and the evolutionary relevance of this phenomenon. It has been described that these relatively large notochordal cells are mainly dominant in early lifetime of all vertebrates and then differences occur with ageing. Human, cattle, sheep, and goat lose the cells with age, whereas rodents and lagomorphs maintain these throughout their lifetime.

Evolutionary forces shaping genomic islands of population differentiation in humans

Background Levels of differentiation among populations depend both on demographic and selective factors: genetic drift and local adaptation increase population differentiation, which is eroded by gene flow and balancing selection. We describe here the genomic distribution and the properties of genomic regions with unusually high and low levels of population differentiation in humans to assess the influence of selective and neutral processes on human genetic structure. Methods Individual SNPs of the Human Genome Diversity Panel (HGDP) showing significantly high or low levels of population differentiation were detected under a hierarchical-island model (HIM). A Hidden Markov Model allowed us to detect genomic regions or islands of high or low population differentiation. Results Under the HIM, only 1.5% of all SNPs are significant at the 1% level, but their genomic spatial distribution is significantly non-random. We find evidence that local adaptation shaped high-differentiation islands, as they are enriched for non-synonymous SNPs and overlap with previously identified candidate regions for positive selection. Moreover there is a negative relationship between the size of islands and recombination rate, which is stronger for islands overlapping with genes. Gene ontology analysis supports the role of diet as a major selective pressure in those highly differentiated islands. Low-differentiation islands are also enriched for non-synonymous SNPs, and contain an overly high proportion of genes belonging to the 'Oncogenesis' biological process. Conclusions Even though selection seems to be acting in shaping islands of high population differentiation, neutral demographic processes might have promoted the appearance of some genomic islands since i) as much as 20% of islands are in non-genic regions ii) these non-genic islands are on average two times shorter than genic islands, suggesting a more rapid erosion by recombination, and iii) most loci are strongly differentiated between Africans and non-Africans, a result consistent with known human demographic history.