Accounting for baseline differences and measurement error in the analysis of change over time

If change over time is compared in several groups, it is important to take into account baseline values so that the comparison is carried out under the same preconditions. As the observed baseline measurements are distorted by measurement error, it may not be sufficient to include them as covariate. By fitting a longitudinal mixed-effects model to all data including the baseline observations and subsequently calculating the expected change conditional on the underlying baseline value, a solution to this problem has been provided recently so that groups with the same baseline characteristics can be compared. In this article, we present an extended approach where a broader set of models can be used. Specifically, it is possible to include any desired set of interactions between the time variable and the other covariates, and also, time-dependent covariates can be included. Additionally, we extend the method to adjust for baseline measurement error of other time-varying covariates. We apply the methodology to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study to address the question if a joint infection with HIV-1 and hepatitis C virus leads to a slower increase of CD4 lymphocyte counts over time after the start of antiretroviral therapy.

Impact of measurement errors on the determination of the linear modulus of human meniscal attachments

For the development of meniscal substitutes and related finite element models it is necessary to know the mechanical properties of the meniscus and its attachments. Measurement errors can falsify the determination of material properties. Therefore the impact of metrological and geometrical measurement errors on the determination of the linear modulus of human meniscal attachments was investigated. After total differentiation the error of the force (+0.10%), attachment deformation (−0.16%), and fibre length (+0.11%) measurements almost annulled each other. The error of the cross-sectional area determination ranged from 0.00%, gathered from histological slides, up to 14.22%, obtained from digital calliper measurements. Hence, total measurement error ranged from +0.05% to −14.17%, predominantly affected by the cross-sectional area determination error. Further investigations revealed that the entire cross-section was significantly larger compared to the load-carrying collagen fibre area. This overestimation of the cross-section area led to an underestimation of the linear modulus of up to −36.7%. Additionally, the cross-sections of the collagen-fibre area of the attachments significantly varied up to +90% along their longitudinal axis. The resultant ratio between the collagen fibre area and the histologically determined cross-sectional area ranged between 0.61 for the posterolateral and 0.69 for the posteromedial ligament. The linear modulus of human meniscal attachments can be significantly underestimated due to the use of different methods and locations of cross-sectional area determination. Hence, it is suggested to assess the load carrying collagen fibre area histologically, or, alternatively, to use the correction factors proposed in this study.

Body Mass Index and Cancer Risk: The Evidence for Causal Association

Increased body mass index (BMI), as an approximation of body adiposity, is a risk factor for developing several adult malignancies. To quantify these risks, we reported a comprehensive systematic review (Lancet 2008; 371: 569-78) of prospective observational studies determining associations between BMI and risk of incident cancer for 20 cancer types. We demonstrated that associations are: (i) sex-specific; (ii) exist for a wider range of malignancies than previously thought; and (iii) are broadly consistent across geographic populations. In the present paper, we tested these data against the Bradford-Hill criteria of causal association, and argue that the available data support strength of association, consistency, specificity, temporality, biological gradient, plausibility, coherence and probably analogy. However, the experimental evidence supporting reversibility is currently lacking, though indirect evidence from longitudinal data in cohort studies and long-term follow-up post-bariatric surgery is emerging. We additionally assessed these data against appropriate adjustment for available confounding factors; measurement error and study design; and residual confounding; and found lack of alternative explanations. We conclude that there is considerable evidence to support a causal association between BMI and risk for many cancer types, but in order to establish the role of weight control in cancer prevention, there is a need to develop trial frameworks in which to better test reversibility.

The Lower Limb Functional Index: development and clinimetric properties

Background Existing lower-limb, region-specific, patient-reported outcome measures have clinimetric limitations, including limitations in psychometric characteristics (eg, lack of internal consistency, lack of responsiveness, measurement error) and the lack of reported practical and general characteristics. A new patient-reported outcome measure, the Lower Limb Functional Index (LLFI), was developed to address these limitations. Objective The purpose of this study was to overcome recognized deficiencies in existing lower-limb, region-specific, patient-reported outcome measures through: (1) development of a new lower-extremity outcome scale (ie, the LLFI) and (2) evaluation of the clinimetric properties of the LLFI using the Lower Extremity Functional Scale (LEFS) as a criterion measure. Design This was a prospective observational study. Methods The LLFI was developed in a 3-stage process of: (1) item generation, (2) item reduction with an expert panel, and (3) pilot field testing (n=18) for reliability, responsiveness, and sample size requirements for a larger study. The main study used a convenience sample (n=127) from 10 physical therapy clinics. Participants completed the LLFI and LEFS every 2 weeks for 6 weeks and then every 4 weeks until discharge. Data were used to assess the psychometric, practical, and general characteristics of the LLFI and the LEFS. The characteristics also were evaluated for overall performance using the Measurement of Outcome Measures and Bot clinimetric assessment scales. Results The LLFI and LEFS demonstrated a single-factor structure, comparable reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient [2,1]=.97), scale width, and high criterion validity (Pearson r=.88, with 95% confidence interval [CI]). Clinimetric performance was higher for the LLFI compared with the LEFS on the Measurement of Outcome Measures scale (96% and 95%, respectively) and the Bot scale (100% and 83%, respectively). The LLFI, compared with the LEFS, had improved responsiveness (standardized response mean=1.75 and 1.64, respectively), minimal detectable change with 90% CI (6.6% and 8.1%, respectively), and internal consistency (α=.91 and .95, respectively), as well as readability with reduced user error and completion and scoring times. Limitations Limitations of the study were that only participants recruited from outpatient physical therapy clinics were included and that no specific conditions or diagnostic subgroups were investigated. Conclusion The LLFI demonstrated sound clinimetric properties. There was lower response error, efficient completion and scoring, and improved responsiveness and overall performance compared with the LEFS. The LLFI is suitable for assessment of lower-limb function.

First middle-atmospheric zonal wind profile measurements with a new ground-based microwave Doppler-spectro-radiometer

We report on the wind radiometer WIRA, a new ground-based microwave Doppler-spectro-radiometer specifically designed for the measurement of middle-atmospheric horizontal wind by observing ozone emission spectra at 142.17504 GHz. Currently, wind speeds in five levels between 30 and 79 km can be retrieved which makes WIRA the first instrument able to continuously measure horizontal wind in this altitude range. For an integration time of one day the measurement error on each level lies at around 25 m s−1. With a planned upgrade this value is expected to be reduced by a factor of 2 in the near future. On the altitude levels where our measurement can be compared to wind data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) very good agreement in the long-term statistics as well as in short time structures with a duration of a few days has been found. WIRA uses a passive double sideband heterodyne receiver together with a digital Fourier transform spectrometer for the data acquisition. A big advantage of the radiometric approach is that such instruments can also operate under adverse weather conditions and thus provide a continuous time series for the given location. The optics enables the instrument to scan a wide range of azimuth angles including the directions east, west, north, and south for zonal and meridional wind measurements. The design of the radiometer is fairly compact and its calibration does not rely on liquid nitrogen which makes it transportable and suitable for campaign use. WIRA is conceived in a way that it can be operated remotely and does hardly require any maintenance. In the present paper, a description of the instrument is given, and the techniques used for the wind retrieval based on the determination of the Doppler shift of the measured atmospheric ozone emission spectra are outlined. Their reliability was tested using Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, a time series of 11 months of zonal wind measurements over Bern (46°57′ N, 7°26′ E) is presented and compared to ECMWF wind data.

Implicit and explicit evaluations: a declaration of dependence

This section presents abstracts of three studies on how consumer choices can be influenced by the name letter effect of brands without decision makers being aware of this influence. The first paper examined whether making brand names similar to consumers' names increases the likelihood that consumers will choose the brand. One prediction is that people will prefer and be more likely to choose products or services whose names prominently feature the letters in their own first or last names. The results showed that subjects' preference rankings and evaluations of name letter matching brands were higher than those of non-name letter matching brands. The second paper tested the possibility of using subliminal priming to activate a concept that a persuasive communicator could take advantage of. To examine the idea, two experiments were presented. In the first experiment, participants' level of thirst were manipulated and then subliminally presented them with either thirst-related words or control words. While the manipulations had no effect on participants' self-reported, conscious ratings of thirst, there was a significant interactive effect of the two factors on how much of the drink provided in the taste test was consumed. In a second, follow up experiment, thirsty participants were subliminally presented with either thirst-related words or control words after which they viewed advertisements for two new sports beverages. In conclusion, the research demonstrates that under certain conditions, subliminal printing techniques can enhance persuasion. The third paper hypothesized that the lack of correlations between implicit and explicit evaluations is due to measurement error.

Validation of middle-atmospheric campaign-based water vapour measured by the ground-based microwave radiometer MIAWARA-C

Middle atmospheric water vapour can be used as a tracer for dynamical processes. It is mainly measured by satellite instruments and ground-based microwave radiometers. Ground-based instruments capable of measuring middle-atmospheric water vapour are sparse but valuable as they complement satellite measurements, are relatively easy to maintain and have a long lifetime. MIAWARA-C is a ground-based microwave radiometer for middle-atmospheric water vapour designed for use on measurement campaigns for both atmospheric case studies and instrument intercomparisons. MIAWARA-C's retrieval version 1.1 (v1.1) is set up in a such way as to provide a consistent data set even if the instrument is operated from different locations on a campaign basis. The sensitive altitude range for v1.1 extends from 4 hPa (37 km) to 0.017 hPa (75 km). For v1.1 the estimated systematic error is approximately 10% for all altitudes. At lower altitudes it is dominated by uncertainties in the calibration, with altitude the influence of spectroscopic and temperature uncertainties increases. The estimated random error increases with altitude from 5 to 25%. MIAWARA-C measures two polarisations of the incident radiation in separate receiver channels, and can therefore provide two measurements of the same air mass with independent instrumental noise. The standard deviation of the difference between the profiles obtained from the two polarisations is in excellent agreement with the estimated random measurement error of v1.1. In this paper, the quality of v1.1 data is assessed for measurements obtained at two different locations: (1) a total of 25 months of measurements in the Arctic (Sodankylä, 67.37° N, 26.63° E) and (2) nine months of measurements at mid-latitudes (Zimmerwald, 46.88° N, 7.46° E). For both locations MIAWARA-C's profiles are compared to measurements from the satellite experiments Aura MLS and MIPAS. In addition, comparisons to ACE-FTS and SOFIE are presented for the Arctic and to the ground-based radiometer MIAWARA for the mid-latitude campaigns. In general, all intercomparisons show high correlation coefficients, confirming the ability of MIAWARA-C to monitor temporal variations of the order of days. The biases are generally below 13% and within the estimated systematic uncertainty of MIAWARA-C. No consistent wet or dry bias is identified for MIAWARA-C. In addition, comparisons to the reference instruments indicate the estimated random error of v1.1 to be a realistic measure of the random variation on the retrieved profile between 45 and 70 km.

Can homeopathic verum and placebo globules be distinguished by UV spectroscopy?

Purpose: Homeopathic preparations are used in homeopathy and anthroposophically extended medicine. Previous studies described differences in UV transmission between homeopathic preparations of CuSO4 and controls. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether statistically significant differences can be found between homeopathic verum and placebo globules by UV spectroscopy. Methods: Verum (aconitum 30c, calcium carbonate/quercus e cortice) and placebo globules used in two previous clinical trials were dissolved in distilled water at 10mg/ml 20-23h prior to the measurements. Absorbance was measured at 190 – 340nm with a Shimadzu UV-1800 double beam spectrophotometer. Duplicates of each sample were measured in a randomized order 4 times on each of the 5 measurement days. To correct for differences between measurement days, average absorbance of all samples on one day was deduced from absorbance of the individual samples. The Kruskal-Wallis test was used to determine group differences between the samples, and finally the coding of the samples was revealed. Results: First analysis showed significant differences (p≤0.05) in average UV absorbance at 200 – 290nm between the samples and a tendency of a correlation (p≤0.1) between absorbance and globule weight. More results will be presented at the conference. Conclusion: Since the absorbance of the samples at the wavelengths between 200 and 290nm was small, a number of aspects had to be considered and should be corrected for if they are present when performing UV spectroscopy on homeopathic globules: 1. Exact weighing of the globules. 2. Measurement error of the spectrophotometer at small absorbances. 3. Drift of the spectrophotometer during a measurement day. 4. Differences between measurement days. The question remains what caused the differences in absorbance found in these experiments: the use of the original material for the production of the verum globules, differences in the production of verum and placebo globules, or other context factors.

Virtual tissue alignment and cutting plane definition--a new method to obtain optimal longitudinal histological sections.

Histomorphometric evaluation of the buccal aspects of periodontal tissues in rodents requires reproducible alignment of maxillae and highly precise sections containing central sections of buccal roots; this is a cumbersome and technically sensitive process due to the small specimen size. The aim of the present report is to describe and analyze a method to transfer virtual sections of micro-computer tomographic (CT)-generated image stacks to the microtome for undecalcified histological processing and to describe the anatomy of the periodontium in rat molars. A total of 84 undecalcified sections of all buccal roots of seven untreated rats was analyzed. The accuracy of section coordinate transfer from virtual micro-CT slice to the histological slice, right-left side differences and the measurement error for linear and angular measurements on micro-CT and on histological micrographs were calculated using the Bland-Altman method, interclass correlation coefficient and the method of moments estimator. Also, manual alignment of the micro-CT-scanned rat maxilla was compared with multiplanar computer-reconstructed alignment. The supra alveolar rat anatomy is rather similar to human anatomy, whereas the alveolar bone is of compact type and the keratinized gingival epithelium bends apical to join the junctional epithelium. The high methodological standardization presented herein ensures retrieval of histological slices with excellent display of anatomical microstructures, in a reproducible manner, minimizes random errors, and thereby may contribute to the reduction of number of animals needed.

Does the Use of Mobile Devices (Tablets and Smartphones) Affect Stated Choice Behavior in Web Surveys? An Application to Environmental Valuation

Web surveys are becoming increasingly popular in survey research. Compared with face-to-face, telephone and mail surveys, web surveys may contain a different and new source of measurement error and bias: the type of device that respondents use to answer the survey questions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that tests whether the use of mobile devices affects survey characteristics and stated preferences in a web-based choice experiment. The web survey was carried out in Germany with 3,400 respondents, of which 12 per cent used a mobile device (i.e. tablet or smartphone), and comprised a stated choice experiment on externalities of renewable energy production using wind, solar and biomass. Our main finding is that survey characteristics such as interview length and acquiescence tendency are affected by the device used. In contrast to what might be expected, we find that, compared with respondents using desktop computers and laptops, mobile device users spent more time to answer the survey and are less likely to be prone to acquiescence bias. In the choice experiment, mobile device users tended to be more consistent in their stated choices, and there are differences in willingness to pay between both subsamples.

Development and validation of a novel pedometer algorithm to quantify extended characteristics of the locomotor behavior of dairy cows

Behavior is one of the most important indicators for assessing cattle health and well-being. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a novel algorithm to monitor locomotor behavior of loose-housed dairy cows based on the output of the RumiWatch pedometer (ITIN+HOCH GmbH, Fütterungstechnik, Liestal, Switzerland). Data of locomotion were acquired by simultaneous pedometer measurements at a sampling rate of 10 Hz and video recordings for manual observation later. The study consisted of 3 independent experiments. Experiment 1 was carried out to develop and validate the algorithm for lying behavior, experiment 2 for walking and standing behavior, and experiment 3 for stride duration and stride length. The final version was validated, using the raw data, collected from cows not included in the development of the algorithm. Spearman correlation coefficients were calculated between accelerometer variables and respective data derived from the video recordings (gold standard). Dichotomous data were expressed as the proportion of correctly detected events, and the overall difference for continuous data was expressed as the relative measurement error. The proportions for correctly detected events or bouts were 1 for stand ups, lie downs, standing bouts, and lying bouts and 0.99 for walking bouts. The relative measurement error and Spearman correlation coefficient for lying time were 0.09% and 1; for standing time, 4.7% and 0.96; for walking time, 17.12% and 0.96; for number of strides, 6.23% and 0.98; for stride duration, 6.65% and 0.75; and for stride length, 11.92% and 0.81, respectively. The strong to very high correlations of the variables between visual observation and converted pedometer data indicate that the novel RumiWatch algorithm may markedly improve automated livestock management systems for efficient health monitoring of dairy cows.

Does the use of mobile devices (tablets and smartphones) affect survey quality and choice behaviour in web surveys?

Web surveys are becoming increasingly popular in survey research including stated preference surveys. Compared with face-to-face, telephone and mail surveys, web surveys may contain a different and new source of measurement error and bias: the type of device that respondents use to answer the survey questions. This is the first study that tests whether the use of mobile devices, tablets or smartphones, affects survey characteristics and stated preferences in a web-based choice experiment. The web survey on expanding renewable energy production in Germany was carried out with 3182 respondents, of which 12% used a mobile device. Propensity score matching is used to account for selection bias in the use of mobile devices for survey completion. We find that mobile device users spent more time than desktop/laptop users to answer the survey. Yet, desktop/laptop users and mobile device users do not differ in acquiescence tendency as an indicator of extreme response patterns. For mobile device users only, we find a negative correlation between screen size and interview length and a positive correlation between screen size and acquiescence tendency. In the choice experiment data, we do not find significant differences in the tendency to choose the status quo option and scale between both subsamples. However, some of the estimates of implicit prices differ, albeit not in a unidirectional fashion. Model results for mobile device users indicate a U-shaped relationship between error variance and screen size. Together, the results suggest that using mobile devices is not detrimental to survey quality.

Practical sources of error in measuring pulmonary artery occlusion pressure: a study in participants of a special intensivist training program of The Scandinavian Society of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine (SSAI)

BACKGROUND: Physiological data obtained with the pulmonary artery catheter (PAC) are susceptible to errors in measurement and interpretation. Little attention has been paid to the relevance of errors in hemodynamic measurements performed in the intensive care unit (ICU). The aim of this study was to assess the errors related to the technical aspects (zeroing and reference level) and actual measurement (curve interpretation) of the pulmonary artery occlusion pressure (PAOP). METHODS: Forty-seven participants in a special ICU training program and 22 ICU nurses were tested without pre-announcement. All participants had previously been exposed to the clinical use of the method. The first task was to set up a pressure measurement system for PAC (zeroing and reference level) and the second to measure the PAOP. RESULTS: The median difference from the reference mid-axillary zero level was - 3 cm (-8 to + 9 cm) for physicians and -1 cm (-5 to + 1 cm) for nurses. The median difference from the reference PAOP was 0 mmHg (-3 to 5 mmHg) for physicians and 1 mmHg (-1 to 15 mmHg) for nurses. When PAOP values were adjusted for the differences from the reference transducer level, the median differences from the reference PAOP values were 2 mmHg (-6 to 9 mmHg) for physicians and 2 mmHg (-6 to 16 mmHg) for nurses. CONCLUSIONS: Measurement of the PAOP is susceptible to substantial error as a result of practical mistakes. Comparison of results between ICUs or practitioners is therefore not possible.

Measurement of structural anisotropy in femoral trabecular bone using clinical-resolution CT images

Discrepancies in finite-element model predictions of bone strength may be attributed to the simplified modeling of bone as an isotropic structure due to the resolution limitations of clinical-level Computed Tomography (CT) data. The aim of this study is to calculate the preferential orientations of bone (the principal directions) and the extent to which bone is deposited more in one direction compared to another (degree of anisotropy). Using 100 femoral trabecular samples, the principal directions and degree of anisotropy were calculated with a Gradient Structure Tensor (GST) and a Sobel Structure Tensor (SST) using clinical-level CT. The results were compared against those calculated with the gold standard Mean-Intercept-Length (MIL) fabric tensor using micro-CT. There was no significant difference between the GST and SST in the calculation of the main principal direction (median error=28°), and the error was inversely correlated to the degree of transverse isotropy (r=−0.34, p<0.01). The degree of anisotropy measured using the structure tensors was weakly correlated with the MIL-based measurements (r=0.2, p<0.001). Combining the principal directions with the degree of anisotropy resulted in a significant increase in the correlation of the tensor distributions (r=0.79, p<0.001). Both structure tensors were robust against simulated noise, kernel sizes, and bone volume fraction. We recommend the use of the GST because of its computational efficiency and ease of implementation. This methodology has the promise to predict the structural anisotropy of bone in areas with a high degree of anisotropy, and may improve the in vivo characterization of bone.

Determination of the Weak Axial Vector Coupling λ=g_{A}/g_{V} from a Measurement of the β-Asymmetry Parameter A in Neutron Beta Decay

We report on a new measurement of the neutron beta-asymmetry parameter A with the instrument \perkeo. Main advancements are the high neutron polarization of P=99.7(1) from a novel arrangement of super mirror polarizers and reduced background from improvements in beam line and shielding. Leading corrections were thus reduced by a factor of 4, pushing them below the level of statistical error and resulting in a significant reduction of systematic uncertainty compared to our previous experiments. From the result A0=−0.11996(58), we derive the ratio of the axial-vector to the vector coupling constant λ=gA/gV=−1.2767(16)