Stochastic search for semiparametric linear regression models

This paper introduces and analyzes a stochastic search method for parameter estimation in linear regression models in the spirit of Beran and Millar [Ann. Statist. 15(3) (1987) 1131–1154]. The idea is to generate a random finite subset of a parameter space which will automatically contain points which are very close to an unknown true parameter. The motivation for this procedure comes from recent work of Dümbgen et al. [Ann. Statist. 39(2) (2011) 702–730] on regression models with log-concave error distributions.

A Nonstationary Space-Time Gaussian Process Model for Partially Converged Simulations

In the context of expensive numerical experiments, a promising solution for alleviating the computational costs consists of using partially converged simulations instead of exact solutions. The gain in computational time is at the price of precision in the response. This work addresses the issue of fitting a Gaussian process model to partially converged simulation data for further use in prediction. The main challenge consists of the adequate approximation of the error due to partial convergence, which is correlated in both design variables and time directions. Here, we propose fitting a Gaussian process in the joint space of design parameters and computational time. The model is constructed by building a nonstationary covariance kernel that reflects accurately the actual structure of the error. Practical solutions are proposed for solving parameter estimation issues associated with the proposed model. The method is applied to a computational fluid dynamics test case and shows significant improvement in prediction compared to a classical kriging model.

An Optical Survey for Space Debris on Highly Eccentric MEO Orbits

Optical surveys for space debris in high-altitude orbits have been conducted since more than ten years. Originally these efforts concentrated mainly on the geostationary ring (GEO). Corresponding observation strategies, processing techniques and cataloguing approaches have been developed and successfully applied. The ESA GEO surveys, e.g., resulted in the detection of a significant population of small-size debris and later in the discovery of high area-to-mass ratio objects in GEO-like orbits. The observation scenarios were successively adapted to survey the geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) region; and recently surveys to search for debris in the medium Earth orbit (MEO) region of the global navigation satellite constellations were successfully conducted. Comparably less experience (both, in terms of practical observation and strategy definition) is available for eccentric orbits that (at least partly) are in the MEO region, in particular for the Molniya-type orbits. Several breakup events and deliberate fragmentations are known to have taken place in such orbits. Different survey and follow-up strategies for searching space debris objects in highly-eccentric MEO orbits, and to acquire orbits which are sufficiently accurate to catalogue such objects and to maintain their orbits over longer time spans were developed. Simulations were performed to compare the performance of different survey and cataloguing strategies. Eventually, optical observations were conducted in the framework of an ESA study using ESA’s Space Debris Telescope (ESASDT) the 1-m Zeiss telescope located at the Optical Ground Station (OGS) at the Teide Observatory at Tenerife, Spain. A first series of surveys of Molnjya-type orbits was performed between January and April 2013. During these four months survey observations were performed during nine nights. A basic survey consisted of observing a single geocentric field for 10 minutes. If a faint object was found, follow-up observations were performed during the same night to ensure a save rediscovery of the object during the next nights. Additional follow-up observations to maintain the orbits of these newly discovered faint objects were also acquired with AIUB ́s 1m ZIMLAT telescope in Zimmerwald, Switzerland. Eventually 195 basic surveys were performed during these nine nights corresponding to about 32.5 hours of observations. In total 24 uncorrelated faint objects were discovered and all known catalogue objects in the survey fields were detected. On average one uncorrelated object was found every 80 minutes. Some of these objects show a considerable brightness variation and have a high area-to-mass ratio as determined in the orbit estimation process.

Testing an alternative search algorithm for compound identification with the 'Wiley Registry of Tandem Mass Spectral Data. MSforID'

A tandem mass spectral database system consists of a library of reference spectra and a search program. State-of-the-art search programs show a high tolerance for variability in compound-specific fragmentation patterns produced by collision-induced decomposition and enable sensitive and specific 'identity search'. In this communication, performance characteristics of two search algorithms combined with the 'Wiley Registry of Tandem Mass Spectral Data, MSforID' (Wiley Registry MSMS, John Wiley and Sons, Hoboken, NJ, USA) were evaluated. The search algorithms tested were the MSMS search algorithm implemented in the NIST MS Search program 2.0g (NIST, Gaithersburg, MD, USA) and the MSforID algorithm (John Wiley and Sons, Hoboken, NJ, USA). Sample spectra were acquired on different instruments and, thus, covered a broad range of possible experimental conditions or were generated in silico. For each algorithm, more than 30,000 matches were performed. Statistical evaluation of the library search results revealed that principally both search algorithms can be combined with the Wiley Registry MSMS to create a reliable identification tool. It appears, however, that a higher degree of spectral similarity is necessary to obtain a correct match with the NIST MS Search program. This characteristic of the NIST MS Search program has a positive effect on specificity as it helps to avoid false positive matches (type I errors), but reduces sensitivity. Thus, particularly with sample spectra acquired on instruments differing in their Setup from tandem-in-space type fragmentation, a comparably higher number of false negative matches (type II errors) were observed by searching the Wiley Registry MSMS.

A Closed-Form, Consistent and Robust Solution to Uncalibrated Photometric Stereo Via Local Diffuse Reflectance Maxima

Images of an object under different illumination are known to provide strong cues about the object surface. A mathematical formalization of how to recover the normal map of such a surface leads to the so-called uncalibrated photometric stereo problem. In the simplest instance, this problem can be reduced to the task of identifying only three parameters: the so-called generalized bas-relief (GBR) ambiguity. The challenge is to find additional general assumptions about the object, that identify these parameters uniquely. Current approaches are not consistent, i.e., they provide different solutions when run multiple times on the same data. To address this limitation, we propose exploiting local diffuse reflectance (LDR) maxima, i.e., points in the scene where the normal vector is parallel to the illumination direction (see Fig. 1). We demonstrate several noteworthy properties of these maxima: a closed-form solution, computational efficiency and GBR consistency. An LDR maximum yields a simple closed-form solution corresponding to a semi-circle in the GBR parameters space (see Fig. 2); because as few as two diffuse maxima in different images identify a unique solution, the identification of the GBR parameters can be achieved very efficiently; finally, the algorithm is consistent as it always returns the same solution given the same data. Our algorithm is also remarkably robust: It can obtain an accurate estimate of the GBR parameters even with extremely high levels of outliers in the detected maxima (up to 80 % of the observations). The method is validated on real data and achieves state-of-the-art results.

Scheduling the production of rolling ingots: Industrial context, model, and solution method

We study a real-world scheduling problem arising in the context of a rolling ingots production. First we review the production process and discuss peculiarities that have to be observed when scheduling a given set of production orders on the production facilities. We then show how to model this scheduling problem using prescribed time lags between operations, different kinds of resources, and sequence-dependent changeovers. A branch-and-bound solution procedure is presented in the second part. The basic principle is to relax the resource constraints by assuming infinite resource availability. Resulting resource conflicts are then stepwise resolved by introducing precedence relationships among operations competing for the same resources. The algorithm has been implemented as a beam search heuristic enumerating alternative sets of precedence relationships.

Effects of anxiety on decision making and visual search behaviour in complex sport situations

Introduction Current empirical findings indicate that the efficiency of decision making (both for experts and near-experts) in simple situations is reduced under increased stress (Wilson, 2008). Explaining the phenomenon, the Attentional Control Theory (ACT, Eysenck et al., 2007) postulates an impairment of attentional processes resulting in a less efficient processing of visual information. From a practitioner’s perspective, it would be highly relevant to know whether this phenomenon can also be found in complex sport situations like in the game of football. Consequently, in the present study, decision making of football players was examined under regular vs. increased anxiety conditions. Methods 22 participants (11 experts and 11 near-experts) viewed 24 complex football situations (counterbalanced) in two anxiety conditions from the perspective of the last defender. They had to decide as fast and accurate as possible on the next action of the player in possession (options: shot on goal, dribble or pass to a designated team member) for equal numbers of trials in a near and far distance condition (based on the position of the player in possession). Anxiety was manipulated via a competitive environment, false feedback as well as ego threats. Decision time and accuracy, gaze behaviour (e.g., fixation duration on different locations) as well as state anxiety and mental effort were used as dependent variables and analysed with 2 (expertise) x 2 (distance) x 2 (anxiety) ANOVAs with repeated measures on the last two factors. Besides expertise differences, it was hypothesised that, based on ACT, increased anxiety reduces performance efficiency and impairs gaze behaviour. Results and Discussion Anxiety was manipulated successfully, indicated by higher ratings of state anxiety, F(1, 20) = 13.13, p < .01, ηp2 = .40. Besides expertise differences in decision making – experts responded faster, F(1, 20) = 11.32, p < .01, ηp2 = .36, and more accurate, F(1,20) = 23.93, p < .01, ηp2 = .55, than near-experts – decision time, F(1, 20) = 9.29, p < .01, ηp2 = .32, and mental effort, F(1, 20) = 7.33, p = .01, ηp2 = .27, increased for both groups in the high anxiety condition. This result confirms the ACT assumption that processing efficiency is reduced when being anxious. Replicating earlier findings, a significant expertise by distance interaction could be observed, F(1, 18) = 18.53, p < .01, ηp2 = .51), with experts fixating longer on the player in possession or the ball in the near distance and longer on other opponents, teammates and free space in the far distance condition. This shows that experts are able to adjust their gaze behaviour to affordances of displayed playing patterns. Additionally, a three way interaction was found, F(1, 18) = 7.37 p = .01, ηp2 = .29, revealing that experts utilised a reduced number of fixations in the far distance condition when being anxious indicating a reduced ability to pick up visual information. Since especially the visual search behaviour of experts was impaired, the ACT prediction that particularly top-down processes are affected by anxiety could be confirmed. Taken together, the results show that sports performance is negatively influenced by anxiety since longer response times, higher mental effort and inefficient visual search behaviour were observed. From a practitioner’s perspective, this finding might suggest preferring (implicit) perceptual cognitive training; however, this recommendation needs to be empirically supported in intervention studies. References: Eysenck, M. W., Derakshan, N., Santos, R., & Calvo, M. G. (2007). Anxiety and cognitive performance: Attentional control theory. Emotion, 7, 336-353. Wilson, M. (2008). From processing efficiency to attentional control: A mechanistic account of the anxiety-performance relationship. Int. Review of Sport and Exercise Psychology, 1, 184-201.

ATLAS search for new phenomena in dijet mass and angular distributions using pp collisions at sqrts=7 TeV

Mass and angular distributions of dijets produced in LHC proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy root s = 7TeV have been studied with the ATLAS detector using the full 2011 data set with an integrated luminosity of 4.8 fb(-1). Dijet masses up to similar to 4.0TeV have been probed. No resonance-like features have been observed in the dijet mass spectrum, and all angular distributions are consistent with the predictions of QCD. Exclusion limits on six hypotheses of new phenomena have been set at 95% CL in terms of mass or energy scale, as appropriate. These hypotheses include excited quarks below 2.83 TeV, colour octet scalars below 1.86TeV, heavy W bosons below 1.68 TeV, string resonances below 3.61 TeV, quantum black holes with six extra space-time dimensions for quantum gravity scales below 4.11 TeV, and quark contact interactions below a compositeness scale of 7.6 TeV in a destructive interference scenario.

Search for squarks and gluinos with the ATLAS detector in final states with jets and missing transverse momentum using 4.7 fb⁻¹ of sqrts=7 TeV proton-pro collision data

A search for squarks and gluinos in final states containing jets, missing transverse momentum and no high-p(T) electrons or muons is presented. The data represent the complete sample recorded in 2011 by the ATLAS experiment in 7 TeV proton-proton collisions at the Large Hadron Collider, with a total integrated luminosity of 4.7 fb(-1). No excess above the Standard Model background expectation is observed. Gluino masses below 860 GeV and squark masses below 1320 GeV are excluded at the 95% confidence level in simplified models containing only squarks of the first two generations, a gluino octet and a massless neutralino, for squark or gluino masses below 2 TeV, respectively. Squarks and gluinos with equal masses below 1410 GeV are excluded. In minimal supergravity/constrained minimal supersymmetric Standard Model models with tan beta = 10, A(0) = 0 and mu > 0, squarks and gluinos of equal mass are excluded for masses below 1360 GeV. Constraints are also placed on the parameter space of supersymmetric models with compressed spectra. These limits considerably extend the region of supersymmetric parameter space excluded by previous measurements with the ATLAS detector.

Capability of a space-based space surveillance system to detect and track objects in GEO, MEO and LEO orbits

In this paper we present the results from the coverage and the orbit determination accuracy simulations performed within the recently completed ESA study “Assessment Study for Space Based Space Surveillance (SBSS) Demonstration System” (Airbus Defence and Space consortium). This study consisted in investigating the capability of a space based optical sensor (SBSS) orbiting in low Earth orbit (LEO) to detect and track objects in GEO (geosynchronous orbit), MEO (medium Earth orbit) and LEO and to determinate and improve initial orbits from such observations. Space based systems may achieve better observation conditions than ground based sensors in terms of astrometric accuracy, detection coverage, and timeliness. The primary observation mode of the proposed SBSS demonstrator is GEO surveillance, i.e. the systematic search and detection of unknown and known objects. GEO orbits are specific and unique orbits from dynamical point of view. A space-based sensor may scan the whole GEO ring within one sidereal day if the orbit and pointing directions are chosen properly. For an efficient survey, our goal was to develop a leak-proof GEO fence strategy. Collaterally, we show that also MEO, LEO and other (GTO,Molniya, etc.) objects would be possible to observe by the system and for a considerable number of LEO objects to down to size of 1 cm we can obtain meaningful statistical data for improvement and validation of space debris environment models

A system design for space-based space surveillance

This paper presents the capabilities of a Space-Based Space Surveillance (SBSS) demonstration mission for Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) based on a micro- satellite platform. The results have been produced in the frame of ESA’s "As sessment Study for Space Based Space Surveillance Demonstration Mission (Phase A) " performed by the Airbus DS consortium. Space Surveillance and Tracking is part of Space Situational Awareness (SSA) and covers the detection, tracking and cataloguing of spa ce debris and satellites. Derived SST services comprise a catalogue of these man-made objects, collision warning, detection and characterisation of in-orbit fragmentations, sub-catalogue debris characterisation, etc. The assessment of SBSS in an SST system architecture has shown that both an operational SBSS and also already a well - designed space-based demonstrator can provide substantial performance in terms of surveillance and tracking of beyond - LEO objects. Especially the early deployment of a demonstrator, possible by using standard equipment, could boost initial operating capability and create a self-maintained object catalogue. Unlike classical technology demonstration missions, the primary goal is the demonstration and optimisation of the functional elements in a complex end-to-end chain (mission planning, observation strategies, data acquisition, processing and fusion, etc.) until the final products can be offered to the users. The presented SBSS system concept takes the ESA SST System Requirements (derived within the ESA SSA Preparatory Program) into account and aims at fulfilling some of the SST core requirements in a stand-alone manner. The evaluation of the concept has shown that an according solution can be implemented with low technological effort and risk. The paper presents details of the system concept, candidate micro - satellite platforms, the observation strategy and the results of performance simulations for GEO coverage and cataloguing accuracy

The Chemical Space of Flavours

The flavour of foods is determined by the interaction of taste molecules with receptors in the mouth, and fragrances or aroma with receptors in the upper part of the nose. Here, we discuss the properties of taste and fragrance molecules, from the public databases Superscent, Flavornet, SuperSweet and BitterDB, taken collectively as flavours, in the perspective of the chemical space. We survey simple descriptor profiles in comparison with the public collections ChEMBL (bioactive small molecules), ZINC (commercial drug-like molecules) and GDB-13 (all possible organic molecules up to 13 atoms of C, N, O, S, Cl). A global analysis of the chemical space of flavours is also presented based on molecular quantum numbers (MQN) and SMILES fingerprints (SMIfp). While taste molecules span a very broad property range, fragrances occupy a narrow area of the chemical space consisting of generally very small and relatively nonpolar molecules distinct of standard drug molecules. Proximity searching in the chemical space is exemplified as a simple method to facilitate the search for new fragrances.