Transient Earth system responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions: linearities, uncertainties, and probabilities in an observation-constrained model ensemble

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil CO2 emissions and multiple climate targets is essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient response of a climate or environmental variable per trillion tonnes of CO2 emissions, termed TRE, is quantified for a set of impact-relevant climate variables and from a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization. An  ∼ 1000-member ensemble of the Bern3D-LPJ carbon–climate model is applied and model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte Carlo-type framework. Uncertainties in TRE estimates include both scenario uncertainty and model response uncertainty. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.9 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.3 to 2.7 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and a steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic meridional overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The constrained model ensemble is also applied to determine the response to a pulse-like emission and in idealized CO2-only simulations. The transient climate response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the equilibrium climate sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis

Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP) and export of particulate organic carbon (EP) are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All four models show a decrease in global mean PP and EP between 2 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in PP and EP. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in PP and EP as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where three models project an increase in PP while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observation-based estimates compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer net primary production from satellite observations.

The influence of measles vaccination on the incidence of otosclerosis in Germany

The pathologic process of otosclerosis is characterized by an inflammatory lytic phase followed by an abnormal bone remodeling at very specific sites of predilection. There is a clear genetic predisposition with about half of all cases occurring in families with more than one affected member. Females are affected more frequently than males with an approximate 2:1 ratio. N, H, and F measles proteins as well as measles virus RNA have been demonstrated in osteoblasts, chondroblasts, and macrophages of the inflammatory phase of the disease. These observations merely show an association between measles viruses and otosclerosis. In the present study, we tried to prove that there is a causal relationship: voluntary measles vaccination has been available in Germany since 1974. In the absence of official data, we reconstructed the rate of vaccination coverage between 1974 and 2004 using information from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI, Berlin) and from the literature. From the German Federal Office of Statistics, we received the data of 64,112 patients who had been hospitalized between 1993 and 2004 and in whom otosclerosis (ICD-9: 387; ICD-10: H80) had been confirmed. We calculated the effect of measles vaccination on the incidence of hospital treatments for otosclerosis in the period from 1993 to 2004 in Germany. For this purpose, we divided the female and male otosclerosis patients treated as inpatients each year in the observation period into two age groups: those up to 25 years, who had in most cases been vaccinated (designated below as "vaccinated patients") and those over 25 years who mostly could not have been vaccinated (designated below as "unvaccinated patients"). We calculated the incidence of otosclerosis requiring inpatient treatment for the two age groups in each year in the period of observation. For external validation of the study results, the same analysis was carried out in all patients who received inpatient treatment for otitis media in the same period. Between 1993 and 2004 the incidence of hospital treatments for otosclerosis decreased to a significantly greater extent in the vaccinated patients than in the unvaccinated patients. The decline is much greater in men than in women. A comparable effect cannot be demonstrated in patients with otitis media. The results indicate that measles vaccination in Germany has resulted in a significant reduction in the number of hospital treatments for otosclerosis in the vaccinated age groups. We conclude that there is a causal relationship between measles viruses and the development of otosclerosis.

Intussusceptive angiogenesis: its role in embryonic vascular network formation

Intussusceptive angiogenesis is a novel mode of blood vessel formation and remodeling, which occurs by internal division of the preexisting capillary plexus without sprouting. In this study, the process is demonstrated in developing chicken eye vasculature and in the chorioallantoic membrane by methylmethacrylate (Mercox) casting, transmission electron microscopy, and in vivo observation. In a first step of intussusceptive angiogenesis, the capillary plexus expands by insertion of numerous transcapillary tissue pillars, ie, by intussusceptive microvascular growth. In a subsequent step, a vascular tree arises from the primitive capillary plexus as a result of intussusceptive pillar formation and pillar fusions, a process we termed "intussusceptive arborization." On the basis of the morphological observations, a 4-step model for intussusceptive arborization is proposed, as follows: phase I, numerous circular pillars are formed in rows, thus demarcating future vessels; phase II, formation of narrow tissue septa by pillar reshaping and pillar fusions; phase III, delineation, segregation, growth, and extraction of the new vascular entity by merging of septa; and phase IV, formation of new branching generations by successively repeating the process, complemented by growth and maturation of all components. In contrast to sprouting, intussusceptive angiogenesis does not require intense local endothelial cell proliferation; it is implemented primarily by rearrangement and attenuation of the endothelial cell plates. In summary, transcapillary pillar formation, ie, intussusception, is a central and probably widespread process, which plays a role not only in capillary network growth and expansion (intussusceptive microvascular growth), but also in vascular plexus remodeling and tree formation (intussusceptive arborization).

Uptake of regular chlamydia testing by U.S. women: a longitudinal study

Background Routine chlamydia screening is a recommended preventive intervention for sexually active women aged ≤25 years in the U.S. but rates of regular uptake are not known. Purpose This study aimed to examine rates of annual chlamydia testing and factors associated with repeat testing in a population of U.S. women. Methods Women aged 15–25 years at any time from January 1, 2002, to December 31, 2006 who were enrolled in 130 commercial health plans were included. Data relating to chlamydia tests were analyzed in 2009. Chlamydia testing rates (per 100 woman-years) by age and rates of repeated annual testing were estimated. Poisson regression was used to examine the effects of age and previous testing on further chlamydia testing within the observation period. Results In total, 2,632,365 women were included. The chlamydia testing rate over the whole study period was 13.6 per 100 woman years after adjusting for age-specific sexual activity; 8.5 (95% CI=6.0, 12.3) per 100 woman-years in those aged 15 years; and 17.7 (95% CI=17.1, 18.9) in those aged 25 years. Among women enrolled for the entire 5-year study period, 25.9% had at least one test but only 0.1% had a chlamydia test every year. Women tested more than once and older women were more likely to be tested again in the observation period. Conclusions The low rates of regular annual chlamydia testing do not comply with national recommendations and would not be expected to have a major impact on the control of chlamydia infection at the population level.

The mucosal immune system at the gastrointestinal barrier

The immune system faces a considerable challenge in its efforts to maintain tissue homeostasis in the intestinal mucosa. It is constantly confronted with a large array of antigens, and has to prevent the dissemination and proliferation of potentially harmful agents while sparing the vital structures of the intestine from immune-mediated destruction. Complex interactions between the highly adapted effector cells and mechanisms of the innate and adaptive immune system generally prevent the luminal microflora from penetrating the intestinal mucosa and from spreading systemically. Non-haematopoietic cells critically contribute to the maintenance of local tissue homeostasis in an antigen-rich environment by producing protective factors (e.g. production of mucus by goblet cells, or secretion of microbicidal defensins by Paneth cells) and also through interactions with the adaptive and innate immune system (such as the production of chemotactic factors that lead to the selective recruitment of immune cell subsets). The complexity of the regulatory mechanisms that control the local immune response to luminal antigens is also reflected in the observation that mutations in immunologically relevant genes often lead to the development of uncontrolled inflammatory reactions in the microbially colonized intestine of experimental animals.

Where to find 1.5 million yr old ice for the IPICS "Oldest-Ice" ice core

The recovery of a 1.5 million yr long ice core from Antarctica represents a keystone of our understanding of Quaternary climate, the progression of glaciation over this time period and the role of greenhouse gas cycles in this progression. Here we tackle the question of where such ice may still be found in the Antarctic ice sheet. We can show that such old ice is most likely to exist in the plateau area of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) without stratigraphic disturbance and should be able to be recovered after careful pre-site selection studies. Based on a simple ice and heat flow model and glaciological observations, we conclude that positions in the vicinity of major domes and saddle position on the East Antarctic Plateau will most likely have such old ice in store and represent the best study areas for dedicated reconnaissance studies in the near future. In contrast to previous ice core drill site selections, however, we strongly suggest significantly reduced ice thickness to avoid bottom melting. For example for the geothermal heat flux and accumulation conditions at Dome C, an ice thickness lower than but close to about 2500 m would be required to find 1.5 Myr old ice (i.e., more than 700 m less than at the current EPICA Dome C drill site). Within this constraint, the resolution of an Oldest-Ice record and the distance of such old ice to the bedrock should be maximized to avoid ice flow disturbances, for example, by finding locations with minimum geothermal heat flux. As the geothermal heat flux is largely unknown for the EAIS, this parameter has to be carefully determined beforehand. In addition, detailed bedrock topography and ice flow history has to be reconstructed for candidates of an Oldest-Ice ice coring site. Finally, we argue strongly for rapid access drilling before any full, deep ice coring activity commences to bring datable samples to the surface and to allow an age check of the oldest ice.

Allowable carbon emissions lowered by multiple climate targets

Climate targets are designed to inform policies that would limit the magnitude and impacts of climate change caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other substances. The target that is currently recognized by most world governments1 places a limit of two degrees Celsius on the global mean warming since preindustrial times. This would require large sustained reductions in carbon dioxide emissions during the twenty-first century and beyond2, 3, 4. Such a global temperature target, however, is not sufficient to control many other quantities, such as transient sea level rise5, ocean acidification6, 7 and net primary production on land8, 9. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) in an observation-informed Bayesian approach, we show that allowable carbon emissions are substantially reduced when multiple climate targets are set. We take into account uncertainties in physical and carbon cycle model parameters, radiative efficiencies10, climate sensitivity11 and carbon cycle feedbacks12, 13 along with a large set of observational constraints. Within this framework, we explore a broad range of economically feasible greenhouse gas scenarios from the integrated assessment community14, 15, 16, 17 to determine the likelihood of meeting a combination of specific global and regional targets under various assumptions. For any given likelihood of meeting a set of such targets, the allowable cumulative emissions are greatly reduced from those inferred from the temperature target alone. Therefore, temperature targets alone are unable to comprehensively limit the risks from anthropogenic emissions.

Laboratory observations and simulations of phase reddening

The visible reflectance spectrum of many Solar System bodies changes with changing viewing geometry for reasons not fully understood. It is often observed to redden (increasing spectral slope) with increasing solar phase angle, an effect known as phase reddening. Only once, in an observation of the martian surface by the Viking 1 lander, was reddening observed up to a certain phase angle with bluing beyond, making the reflectance ratio as a function of phase angle shaped like an arch. However, in laboratory experiments this arch-shape is frequently encountered. To investigate this, we measured the bidirectional reflectance of particulate samples of several common rock types in the 400–1000 nm wavelength range and performed ray-tracing simulations. We confirm the occurrence of the arch for surfaces that are forward scattering, i.e. are composed of semi-transparent particles and are smooth on the scale of the particles, and for which the reflectance increases from the lower to the higher wavelength in the reflectance ratio. The arch shape is reproduced by the simulations, which assume a smooth surface. However, surface roughness on the scale of the particles, such as the Hapke and van Horn (Hapke, B., van Horn, H. [1963]. J. Geophys. Res. 68, 4545–4570) fairy castles that can spontaneously form when sprinkling a fine powder, leads to monotonic reddening. A further consequence of this form of microscopic roughness (being indistinct without the use of a microscope) is a flattening of the disk function at visible wavelengths, i.e. Lommel–Seeliger-type scattering. The experiments further reveal monotonic reddening for reflectance ratios at near-IR wavelengths. The simulations fail to reproduce this particular reddening, and we suspect that it results from roughness on the surface of the particles. Given that the regolith of atmosphereless Solar System bodies is composed of small particles, our results indicate that the prevalence of monotonic reddening and Lommel–Seeliger-type scattering for these bodies results from microscopic roughness, both in the form of structures built by the particles and roughness on the surface of the particles themselves. It follows from the singular Viking 1 observation that the surface in front of the lander was composed of semi-transparent particles, and was smooth on the scale of the particle size.

Improved star camera attitude data and their effect on the gravity field

Efforts are ongoing to decrease the noise of the GRACE gravity field models and hence to arrive closer to the GRACE baseline. The most significant error sources belong the untreated errors in the observation data and the imperfections in the background models. The recent study (Bandikova&Flury,2014) revealed that the current release of the star camera attitude data (SCA1B RL02) contain noise systematically higher than expected by about a factor 3-4. This is due to an incorrect implementation of the algorithms for quaternion combination in the JPL processing routines. Generating improved SCA data requires that valid data from both star camera heads are available which is not always the case because the Sun and Moon at times blind one camera. In the gravity field modeling, the attitude data are needed for the KBR antenna offset correction and to orient the non-gravitational linear accelerations sensed by the accelerometer. Hence any improvement in the SCA data is expected to be reflected in the gravity field models. In order to quantify the effect on the gravity field, we processed one month of observation data using two different approaches: the celestial mechanics approach (AIUB) and the variational equations approach (ITSG). We show that the noise in the KBR observations and the linear accelerations has effectively decreased. However, the effect on the gravity field on a global scale is hardly evident. We conclude that, at the current level of accuracy, the errors seen in the temporal gravity fields are dominated by errors coming from sources other than the attitude data.

Less Oxygen, Later Intubation and Reduced Respiratory Pressures for ELBW Infants from 1997 to 2011.

INTRODUCTION Evidence concerning delivery room management in extremely low birth weight infants (ELBW) has grown substantially within the last 20 years, leading to several guidelines and recommendations. However, it is unknown in which extent local treatment strategies have changed and if they reflect current recommendations. METHODS A detailed questionnaire about treatment strategies for ELBW infants was sent to all German neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) treating ELBW infants in 1997. A follow-up survey was conducted in 2011 and sent to all NICUs in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. RESULTS on delivery room management were compared to the first survey. RESULTS In 1997 and 2011, 63.6 and 66.2% of the approached hospitals responded. In 2011 similar results were observed between university and non-university hospitals as well as NICUs of different size. Differences between Germany, Austria and Switzerland were minimal. Changes over time were a lower initially applied fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2) and peak inspiratory pressure (PiP) in 2011 compared to 1997. A longer time of apnea was tolerated before tracheal intubation is performed; the time of apnea was less frequently a sole criterion for intubation and surfactant was applied at lower FiO2 in 2011. The time of no thorax excursions and transport of the infant were considered an indication for intubation in 30.2 and 22.5%, and did not change in the observation period. CONCLUSION Treatment strategies for delivery room management in ELBW infants changed significantly between 1997 and 2011 and largely reflect current recommendations.

Observation of ventilation-induced Spo(2) oscillations in pigs: first step to noninvasive detection of cyclic recruitment of atelectasis?

High arterial partial oxygen pressure (Pao(2)) oscillations within the respiratory cycle were described recently in experimental acute lung injury. This phenomenon has been related to cyclic recruitment of atelectasis and varying pulmonary shunt fractions. Noninvasive detection of Spo(2) (oxygen saturation measured by pulse oximetry) as an indicator of cyclic collapse of atelectasis, instead of recording Pao(2) oscillations, could be of clinical interest in critical care. Spo(2) oscillations were recorded continuously in three different cases of lung damage to demonstrate the technical feasibility of this approach. To deduce Pao(2) from Spo(2), a mathematical model of the hemoglobin dissociation curve including left and right shifts was derived from the literature and adapted to the dynamic changes of oxygenation. Calculated Pao(2) amplitudes (derived from Spo(2) measurements) were compared to simultaneously measured fast changes of Pao(2), using a current standard method (fluorescence quenching of ruthenium). Peripheral hemoglobin saturation was capable to capture changes of Spo(2) within each respiratory cycle. For the first time, Spo(2) oscillations due to cyclic recruitment of atelectasis within a respiratory cycle were determined by photoplethysmography, a technology that can be readily applied noninvasively in clinical routine. A mathematic model to calculate the respective Pao(2) changes was developed and its applicability tested.