The past ecology of Abies alba provides new perspectives on future responses of silver fir forests to global warming

Paleoecology can provide valuable insights into the ecology of species that complement observation and experiment-based assessments of climate impact dynamics. New paleoecological records (e.g., pollen, macrofossils) from the Italian Peninsula suggest a much wider climatic niche of the important European tree species Abies alba (silver fir) than observed in its present spatial range. To explore this discrepancy between current and past distribution of the species, we analyzed climatic data (temperature, precipitation, frost, humidity, sunshine) and vegetation-independent paleoclimatic reconstructions (e.g., lake levels, chironomids) and use global coupled carbon-cycle climate (NCAR CSM1.4) and dynamic vegetation (LandClim) modeling. The combined evidence suggests that during the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago), prior to humanization of vegetation, A. alba formed forests under conditions that exceeded the modern (1961-1990) upper temperature limit of the species by 5-7°C (July means). Annual precipitation during this natural period was comparable to today (>700-800 mm), with drier summers and wetter winters. In the meso-Mediterranean to sub-Mediterranean forests A. alba co-occurred with thermophilous taxa such as Quercus ilex, Q. pubescens, Olea europaea, Phillyrea, Arbutus, Cistus, Tilia, Ulmus, Acer, Hedera helix, Ilex aquifolium, Taxus, and Vitis. Results from the last interglacial (ca. 130 000-115 000 BP), when human impact was negligible, corroborate the Holocene evidence. Thermophilous Mediterranean A. alba stands became extinct during the last 5000 years when land-use pressure and specifically excessive anthropogenic fire and browsing disturbance increased. Our results imply that the ecology of this key European tree species is not yet well understood. On the basis of the reconstructed realized climatic niche of the species, we anticipate that the future geographic range of A. alba may not contract regardless of migration success, even if climate should become significantly warmer than today with summer temperatures increasing by up to 5-7°C, as long as precipitation does not fall below 700-800 mm/yr, and anthropogenic disturbance (e.g., fire, browsing) does not become excessive. Our finding contradicts recent studies that projected range contractions under global-warming scenarios, but did not factor how millennia of human impacts reduced the realized climatic niche of A. alba.

Transmission dynamics of Chlamydia trachomatis affect the impact of screening programmes

To assess the impact of screening programmes in reducing the prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis, mathematical and computational models are used as a guideline for decision support. Unfortunately, large uncertainties exist about the parameters that determine the transmission dynamics of C. trachomatis. Here, we use a SEIRS (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-susceptible) model to critically analyze the turnover of C. trachomatis in a population and the impact of a screening programme. We perform a sensitivity analysis on the most important steps during an infection with C. trachomatis. Varying the fraction of the infections becoming symptomatic as well as the duration of the symptomatic period within the range of previously used parameter estimates has little effect on the transmission dynamics. However, uncertainties in the duration of temporary immunity and the asymptomatic period can result in large differences in the predicted impact of a screening programme. We therefore analyze previously published data on the persistence of asymptomatic C. trachomatis infection in women and estimate the mean duration of the asymptomatic period to be longer than anticipated so far, namely 433 days (95% CI: 420-447 days). Our study shows that a longer duration of the asymptomatic period results in a more pronounced impact of a screening programme. However, due to the slower turnover of the infection, a substantial reduction in prevalence can only be achieved after screening for several years or decades.

Impact of suborbital climate changes in the North Atlantic on ice sheet dynamics at the Mid-Pleistocene Transition

[1] Early and Mid-Pleistocene climate, ocean hydrography and ice sheet dynamics have been reconstructed using a high-resolution data set (planktonic and benthicδ18O time series, faunal-based sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions and ice-rafted debris (IRD)) record from a high-deposition-rate sedimentary succession recovered at the Gardar Drift formation in the subpolar North Atlantic (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Leg 306, Site U1314). Our sedimentary record spans from late in Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 31 to MIS 19 (1069–779 ka). Different trends of the benthic and planktonic oxygen isotopes, SST and IRD records before and after MIS 25 (∼940 ka) evidence the large increase in Northern Hemisphere ice-volume, linked to the cyclicity change from the 41-kyr to the 100-kyr that occurred during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT). Beside longer glacial-interglacial (G-IG) variability, millennial-scale fluctuations were a pervasive feature across our study. Negative excursions in the benthicδ18O time series observed at the times of IRD events may be related to glacio-eustatic changes due to ice sheets retreats and/or to changes in deep hydrography. Time series analysis on surface water proxies (IRD, SST and planktonicδ18O) of the interval between MIS 31 to MIS 26 shows that the timing of these millennial-scale climate changes are related to half-precessional (10 kyr) components of the insolation forcing, which are interpreted as cross-equatorial heat transport toward high latitudes during both equinox insolation maxima at the equator.

The impact of different glacial boundary conditions on atmospheric dynamics and precipitation in the North Atlantic region

Using a highly resolved atmospheric general circulation model, the impact of different glacial boundary conditions on precipitation and atmospheric dynamics in the North Atlantic region is investigated. Six 30-yr time slice experiments of the Last Glacial Maximum at 21 thousand years before the present (ka BP) and of a less pronounced glacial state – the Middle Weichselian (65 ka BP) – are compared to analyse the sensitivity to changes in the ice sheet distribution, in the radiative forcing and in the prescribed time-varying sea surface temperature and sea ice, which are taken from a lower-resolved, but fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. The strongest differences are found for simulations with different heights of the Laurentide ice sheet. A high surface elevation of the Laurentide ice sheet leads to a southward displacement of the jet stream and the storm track in the North Atlantic region. These changes in the atmospheric dynamics generate a band of increased precipitation in the mid-latitudes across the Atlantic to southern Europe in winter, while the precipitation pattern in summer is only marginally affected. The impact of the radiative forcing differences between the two glacial periods and of the prescribed time-varying sea surface temperatures and sea ice are of second order importance compared to the one of the Laurentide ice sheet. They affect the atmospheric dynamics and precipitation in a similar but less pronounced manner compared with the topographic changes.

Simulating the impact of four control strategies on the population dynamics of Neospora caninum infection in Swiss dairy cattle

A dynamic deterministic simulation model was developed to assess the impact of different putative control strategies on the seroprevalence of Neospora caninum in female Swiss dairy cattle. The model structure comprised compartments of "susceptible" and "infected" animals (SI-model) and the cattle population was divided into 12 age classes. A reference model (Model 1) was developed to simulate the current (status quo) situation (present seroprevalence in Switzerland 12%), taking into account available demographic and seroprevalence data of Switzerland. Model 1 was modified to represent four putative control strategies: testing and culling of seropositive animals (Model 2), discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows (Model 3), chemotherapeutic treatment of calves from seropositive cows (Model 4), and vaccination of susceptible and infected animals (Model 5). Models 2-4 considered different sub-scenarios with regard to the frequency of diagnostic testing. Multivariable Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis was used to assess the impact of uncertainty in input parameters. A policy of annual testing and culling of all seropositive cattle in the population reduced the seroprevalence effectively and rapidly from 12% to <1% in the first year of simulation. The control strategies with discontinued breeding with offspring from all seropositive cows, chemotherapy of calves and vaccination of all cattle reduced the prevalence more slowly than culling but were still very effective (reduction of prevalence below 2% within 11, 23 and 3 years of simulation, respectively). However, sensitivity analyses revealed that the effectiveness of these strategies depended strongly on the quality of the input parameters used, such as the horizontal and vertical transmission factors, the sensitivity of the diagnostic test and the efficacy of medication and vaccination. Finally, all models confirmed that it was not possible to completely eradicate N. caninum as long as the horizontal transmission process was not interrupted.

Impact of geomagnetic excursions on atmospheric chemistry and dynamics

Geomagnetic excursions, i.e. short periods in time with much weaker geomagnetic fields and substantial changes in the position of the geomagnetic pole, occurred repeatedly in the Earth's history, e.g. the Laschamp event about 41 kyr ago. Although the next such excursion is certain to come, little is known about the timing and possible consequences for the state of the atmosphere and the ecosystems. Here we use the global chemistry climate model SOCOL-MPIOM to simulate the effects of geomagnetic excursions on atmospheric ionization, chemistry and dynamics. Our simulations show significantly increased concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in the entire stratosphere, especially over Antarctica (+15%), due to enhanced ionization by galactic cosmic rays. Hydrogen oxides (HOx) are also produced in greater amounts (up to +40%) in the tropical and subtropical lower stratosphere, while their destruction by reactions with enhanced NOx prevails over the poles and in high altitudes (by −5%). Stratospheric ozone concentrations decrease globally above 20 km by 1–2% and at the northern hemispheric tropopause by up to 5% owing to the accelerated NOx-induced destruction. A 5% increase is found in the southern lower stratosphere and troposphere. In response to these changes in ozone and the concomitant changes in atmospheric heating rates, the Arctic vortex intensifies in boreal winter, while the Antarctic vortex weakens in austral winter and spring. Surface wind anomalies show significant intensification of the southern westerlies at their poleward edge during austral winter and a pronounced northward shift in spring. Major impacts on the global climate seem unlikely.

Accessibility as a determinant of environmental dynamics in socio-economic disparities in mainland Southeast Asia

Access and accessibility are important determinants of people’s ability to utilise natural resources, and have a strong impact on household welfare. Physical accessibility of natural resources, on the other hand, has generally been regarded as one of the most important drivers of land-use and land-cover changes. Based on two case studies, this article discusses evidence of the impact of access to services and access to natural resources on household poverty and on the environment. We show that socio-cultural distances are a key limiting factor for gaining access to services, and thereby for improved household welfare. We also discuss the impact of socio-cultural distances on access to natural resources, and show that large-scale commercial exploitation of natural resources tends to occur beyond the spatial reach of socio-culturally and economically marginalised population segments. We conclude that it is essential to pay more attention to improving the structural environment that presently leaves social minority groups marginalised. Innovative approaches that use natural resource management to induce poverty reduction – for example, through compensation of local farmers for environmental services – appear to be promising avenues that can lead to integration of the objectives of poverty reduction and sustainable environmental stewardship.

Natural variations at position 93 of the invariant Vα24-Jα18 α chain of human iNKT-cell TCRs strongly impact on CD1d binding

Human invariant natural killer T (NKT) cell TCRs bind to CD1d via an "invariant" Vα24-Jα18 chain (iNKTα) paired to semi-invariant Vβ11 chains (iNKTβ). Single-amino acid variations at position 93 (p93) of iNKTα, immediately upstream of the "invariant" CDR3α region, have been reported in a substantial proportion of human iNKT-cell clones (4-30%). Although p93, a serine in most human iNKT-cell TCRs, makes no contact with CD1d, it could affect CD1d binding by altering the conformation of the crucial CDR3α loop. By generating recombinant refolded iNKT-cell TCRs, we show that natural single-nucleotide variations in iNKTα, translating to serine, threonine, asparagine or isoleucine at p93, exert a powerful effect on CD1d binding, with up to 28-fold differences in affinity between these variants. This effect was observed with CD1d loaded with either the artificial α-galactosylceramide antigens KRN7000 or OCH, or the endogenous glycolipid β-galactosylceramide, and its importance for autoreactive recognition of endogenous lipids was demonstrated by the binding of variant iNKT-cell TCR tetramers to cell surface expressed CD1d. The serine-containing variant showed the strongest CD1d binding, offering an explanation for its predominance in vivo. Complementary molecular dynamics modeling studies were consistent with an impact of p93 on the conformation of the CDR3α loop.

No adverse effect of genetically modified antifungal wheat on decomposition dynamics and the soil fauna community - a field study

The cultivation of genetically modified (GM) plants has raised several environmental concerns. One of these concerns regards non-target soil fauna organisms, which play an important role in the decomposition of organic matter and hence are largely exposed to GM plant residues. Soil fauna may be directly affected by transgene products or indirectly by pleiotropic effects such as a modified plant metabolism. Thus, ecosystem services and functioning might be affected negatively. In a litterbag experiment in the field we analysed the decomposition process and the soil fauna community involved. Therefore, we used four experimental GM wheat varieties, two with a race-specific antifungal resistance against powdery mildew (Pm3b) and two with an unspecific antifungal resistance based on the expression of chitinase and glucanase. We compared them with two non-GM isolines and six conventional cereal varieties. To elucidate the mechanisms that cause differences in plant decomposition, structural plant components (i.e. C:N ratio, lignin, cellulose, hemicellulose) were examined and soil properties, temperature and precipitation were monitored. The most frequent taxa extracted from decaying plant material were mites (Cryptostigmata, Gamasina and Uropodina), springtails (Isotomidae), annelids (Enchytraeidae) and Diptera (Cecidomyiidae larvae). Despite a single significant transgenic/month interaction for Cecidomyiidae larvae, which is probably random, we detected no impact of the GM wheat on the soil fauna community. However, soil fauna differences among conventional cereal varieties were more pronounced than between GM and non-GM wheat. While leaf residue decomposition in GM and non-GM wheat was similar, differences among conventional cereals were evident. Furthermore, sampling date and location were found to greatly influence soil fauna community and decomposition processes. The results give no indication of ecologically relevant adverse effects of antifungal GM wheat on the composition and the activity of the soil fauna community.

Scheduler-dependent inter-cell interference and its impact on LTE uplink performance at flow level

The Long Term Evolution (LTE) cellular technology is expected to extend the capacity and improve the performance of current 3G cellular networks. Among the key mechanisms in LTE responsible for traffic management is the packet scheduler, which handles the allocation of resources to active flows in both the frequency and time dimension. This paper investigates for various scheduling scheme how they affect the inter-cell interference characteristics and how the interference in turn affects the user’s performance. A special focus in the analysis is on the impact of flow-level dynamics resulting from the random user behaviour. For this we use a hybrid analytical/simulation approach which enables fast evaluation of flow-level performance measures. Most interestingly, our findings show that the scheduling policy significantly affects the inter-cell interference pattern but that the scheduler specific pattern has little impact on the flow-level performance.

Seed fate and seedling dynamics after masting in two African rain forest trees

How the effects of biotic factors are moderated by abiotic factors, and their consequences for species interactions, is generally understudied in ecology. A key abiotic feature of forests is regular canopy disturbances that create temporary patches, or “gaps,” of above-average light availability. Co-occurring in lowland primary forest of Korup National Park (Cameroon), Microberlinia bisulcata and Tetraberlinia bifoliolata are locally dominant, ectomycorrhizal trees whose seeds share predator guilds in masting years. Here, we experimentally tested the impact of small mammal predators upon seedling abundance, growth, and survivorship. In 2007, we added a fixed density of seeds of each species to exclosures at 48 gap–understory locations across 82.5 ha within a large Microberlinia grove, and at 15 locations outside it. For both species, small mammals removed more seeds in gaps than in understory, whereas this was reversed for seeds killed by invertebrates. Nonetheless, Microberlinia lost twice as many seeds to small mammals, and more to invertebrates in exclosures, than Tetraberlinia, which was more prone to a pathogenic white fungus. After six weeks, both species had greater seedling establishment in gaps than understory, and in exclosures outside compared to exclosures inside the grove. In the subsequent two-year period, seedling growth and survivorship peaked in exclosures in gaps, but Microberlinia had more seedlings' stems clipped by animals than Tetraberlinia, and more than twice the percentage of leaf area damaged. Whereas Microberlinia seedling performance in gaps was inferior to Tetraberlinia inside the grove, outside it Microberlinia had reduced leaf damage, grew taller, and had many more leaves than Tetraberlinia. No evidence was found for “apparent mutualism” in the understory as seedling establishment of both species increased away from (>25 m) large stems of either species, pointing to “apparent competition” instead. In gaps, Microberlinia seedling establishment was lower near Tetraberlinia than conspecific adults because of context-dependent small mammal satiation. Stage-matrix analysis suggested that protecting Microberlinia from small mammals could increase its population growth rate by 0.06. In the light of prior research we conclude that small mammals and canopy gaps play an important role in promoting species coexistence in this forest, and that their strong interaction contributes to Microberlinia's currently very poor regeneration.