Voter Participation in the 1998 Bundestag Elections: A Theoretical Modification and Empirical Application of Downs’ Theory of Voter Participation

This article seeks to contribute to the illumination of the so-called 'paradox of voting' using the German Bundestag elections of 1998 as an empirical case. Downs' model of voter participation will be extended to include elements of the theory of subjective expected utility (SEU). This will allow a theoretical and empirical exploration of the crucial mechanisms of individual voters' decisions to participate, or abstain from voting, in the German general election of 1998. It will be argued that the infinitely low probability of an individual citizen's vote to decide the election outcome will not necessarily reduce the probability of electoral participation. The empirical analysis is largely based on data from the ALLBUS 1998. It confirms the predictions derived from SEU theory. The voters' expected benefits and their subjective expectation to be able to influence government policy by voting are the crucial mechanisms to explain participation. By contrast, the explanatory contribution of perceived information and opportunity costs is low.

Voting Power and Probability

Voting power is commonly measured using a probability. But what kind of probability is this? Is it a degree of belief or an objective chance or some other sort of probability? The aim of this paper is to answer this question. The answer depends on the use to which a measure of voting power is put. Some objectivist interpretations of probabilities are appropriate when we employ such a measure for descriptive purposes. By contrast, when voting power is used to normatively assess voting rules, the probabilities are best understood as classical probabilities, which count possibilities. This is so because, from a normative stance, voting power is most plausibly taken to concern rights and thus possibilities. The classical interpretation also underwrites the use of the Bernoulli model upon which the Penrose/Banzhaf measure is based.

Economic benefits and costs of Sustainable Land Management Technologies: An analysis of WOCAT's global data

Perceived profitability is a key factor in explaining farmers' decision to adopt or not adopt sustainable land management (SLM) technologies. Despite this importance, relatively little is known about the economics of SLM. This paper contributes to the literature by analysing data on costs and perceived cost/benefit ratios of SLM technologies. Data are taken from the World Overview of Conservation Approaches and Technologies technology database and cover 363 case studies conducted in a variety of countries between 1990 and 2012. Based on an in-depth descriptive analysis, we determine what costs accrue to local stakeholders and assess perceived short-term and long-term cost/benefit ratios. Our results show that a large majority of the technologies in our sample are perceived as being profitable: 73% were perceived to have a positive or at least neutral cost/benefit ratio in the short term, while 97% were perceived to have a positive or very positive cost/benefit ratio in the long term. An additional empirical analysis confirms that economic factors are key determinants of land users' decisions to adopt or not adopt SLM technologies. We conclude that a wide range of existing SLM practices generate considerable benefits not only for land users, but for other stakeholders as well. High initial investment costs associated with some practices may, however, constitute a barrier to their adoption; short-term support for land users can help to promote these practices where appropriate.

A Targeted Survey for Scrapie in Jos Plateau State, Nigeria

Scrapie, a disease of sheep and goats with a progressive course and fatal outcome, has not been identified in Nigeria. Anecdotal scrapie reports by livestock workers abound. Livestock diseases like scrapie form huddles in livestock economics of countries. For 8 months we surveyed for scrapie targeting emergency/casualty slaughter sheep and goats in Jos, Nigeria. We clinically examined 510 sheep and 608 goats of local breeds, aged from 12 months to 5 years. In total 31 (5.10%) goats and no sheep were clinically suspicious for scrapie. Caudal brainstem tissues of suspect animals collected postmortem were analyzed for the disease specific form of the prion protein, PrPSc, using Bio-Rad’s TeSeE ELISA rapid test kit. No sample was positive for scrapie. Fluorescent antibody test for rabies and H&E staining on samples were carried out for differential diagnosis. These showed no pathological lesions indicative for neurological disease. While our findings do not exclude the presence of scrapie in Jos, we demonstrate that targeted sampling of small ruminants for neuroinfectious disease is feasible in developing countries, pointing to the possibility of implementing such a monitoring scheme in Nigeria to prevent economic losses in small ruminant livestock as scrapie caveats from endemic countries have shown.