Synthesis and Redox and Photophysical Properties of Benzodifuran-Spiropyran Ensembles

Two benzodifuran (BDF)-coupled spiropyran (SP) systems and their BDF reference compounds were obtained in good yields through HuisgenMeldalSharpless click chemistry and then subjected to investigation of their electrochemical and photophysical properties. In both SP and merocyanine (MC) forms of the coupled molecules, the BDF-based emission is quenched to around 1 of the quantum yield of emission from the BDF reference compounds. Based on electrochemical data, this quenching is attributed to oxidative electron-transfer quenching. Irradiation at 366nm results in ring opening to the MC forms of the BDF-coupled SP compounds and the SP reference compound with a quantum efficiency of about 50. The rate constants for the thermal ring closing are approximately 3.4x103s1. However, in the photostationary states the MC fractions of the coupled molecules are substantially lower than that of the reference SP compound, attributed to the observed acceleration of the ring-closing reaction upon irradiation. As irradiation at 366nm invariably also excites higher-energy transitions of the BDF units in the coupled compounds, the ring-opening reaction is accelerated relative to the SP reference, which results in lower MC fractions in the photostationary state. Reversible photochromism of these BDF-coupled SP compounds renders them promising in the field of molecular switches.

Fast Update of Conditional Simulation Ensembles

Gaussian random field (GRF) conditional simulation is a key ingredient in many spatial statistics problems for computing Monte-Carlo estimators and quantifying uncertainties on non-linear functionals of GRFs conditional on data. Conditional simulations are known to often be computer intensive, especially when appealing to matrix decomposition approaches with a large number of simulation points. This work studies settings where conditioning observations are assimilated batch sequentially, with one point or a batch of points at each stage. Assuming that conditional simulations have been performed at a previous stage, the goal is to take advantage of already available sample paths and by-products to produce updated conditional simulations at mini- mal cost. Explicit formulae are provided, which allow updating an ensemble of sample paths conditioned on n ≥ 0 observations to an ensemble conditioned on n + q observations, for arbitrary q ≥ 1. Compared to direct approaches, the proposed formulae proveto substantially reduce computational complexity. Moreover, these formulae explicitly exhibit how the q new observations are updating the old sample paths. Detailed complexity calculations highlighting the benefits of this approach with respect to state-of-the-art algorithms are provided and are complemented by numerical experiments.

Interhemispheric coupling, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and warm Antarctic interglacials

Ice core evidence indicates that even though atmospheric CO2 concentrations did not exceed ~300 ppm at any point during the last 800 000 years, East Antarctica was at least ~3–4 °C warmer than preindustrial (CO2~280 ppm) in each of the last four interglacials. During the previous three interglacials, this anomalous warming was short lived (~3000 years) and apparently occurred before the completion of Northern Hemisphere deglaciation. Hereafter, we refer to these periods as "Warmer than Present Transients" (WPTs). We present a series of experiments to investigate the impact of deglacial meltwater on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Antarctic temperature. It is well known that a slowed AMOC would increase southern sea surface temperature (SST) through the bipolar seesaw and observational data suggests that the AMOC remained weak throughout the terminations preceding WPTs, strengthening rapidly at a time which coincides closely with peak Antarctic temperature. We present two 800 kyr transient simulations using the Intermediate Complexity model GENIE-1 which demonstrate that meltwater forcing generates transient southern warming that is consistent with the timing of WPTs, but is not sufficient (in this single parameterisation) to reproduce the magnitude of observed warmth. In order to investigate model and boundary condition uncertainty, we present three ensembles of transient GENIE-1 simulations across Termination II (135 000 to 124 000 BP) and three snapshot HadCM3 simulations at 130 000 BP. Only with consideration of the possible feedback of West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) retreat does it become possible to simulate the magnitude of observed warming.

Potential drought stress in a Swiss mountain catchment-Ensemble forecasting of high mountain soil moisture reveals a drastic decrease, despite major uncertainties

Climate change is expected to profoundly influence the hydrosphere of mountain ecosystems. The focus of current process-based research is centered on the reaction of glaciers and runoff to climate change; spatially explicit impacts on soil moisture remain widely neglected. We spatio-temporally analyzed the impact of the climate on soil moisture in a mesoscale high mountain catchment to facilitate the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies at the level of vegetation patterns. Two regional climate models were downscaled using three different approaches (statistical downscaling, delta change, and direct use) to drive a hydrological model (WaSiM-ETH) for reference and scenario period (1960–1990 and 2070–2100), resulting in an ensemble forecast of six members. For all ensembles members we found large changes in temperature, resulting in decreasing snow and ice storage and earlier runoff, but only small changes in evapotranspiration. The occurrence of downscaled dry spells was found to fluctuate greatly, causing soil moisture depletion and drought stress potential to show high variability in both space and time. In general, the choice of the downscaling approach had a stronger influence on the results than the applied regional climate model. All of the results indicate that summer soil moisture decreases, which leads to more frequent declines below a critical soil moisture level and an advanced evapotranspiration deficit. Forests up to an elevation of 1800 m a.s.l. are likely to be threatened the most, while alpine areas and most pastures remain nearly unaffected. Nevertheless, the ensemble variability was found to be extremely high and should be interpreted as a bandwidth of possible future drought stress situations.

Differential diagnosis of CT focal liver lesions using texture features, feature selection and ensemble driven classifiers

The aim of the present study is to define an optimally performing computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) architecture for the classification of liver tissue from non-enhanced computed tomography (CT) images into normal liver (C1), hepatic cyst (C2), hemangioma (C3), and hepatocellular carcinoma (C4). To this end, various CAD architectures, based on texture features and ensembles of classifiers (ECs), are comparatively assessed.

The importance of glacier and forest change in hydrological climate-impact studies

Changes in land cover alter the water balance components of a catchment, due to strong interactions between soils, vegetation and the atmosphere. Therefore, hydrological climate impact studies should also integrate scenarios of associated land cover change. To reflect two severe climate-induced changes in land cover, we applied scenarios of glacier retreat and forest cover increase that were derived from the temperature signals of the climate scenarios used in this study. The climate scenarios were derived from ten regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project. Their respective temperature and precipitation changes between the scenario period (2074–2095) and the control period (1984–2005) were used to run a hydrological model. The relative importance of each of the three types of scenarios (climate, glacier, forest) was assessed through an analysis of variance (ANOVA). Altogether, 15 mountainous catchments in Switzerland were analysed, exhibiting different degrees of glaciation during the control period (0–51%) and different degrees of forest cover increase under scenarios of change (12–55% of the catchment area). The results show that even an extreme change in forest cover is negligible with respect to changes in runoff, but it is crucial as soon as changes in evaporation or soil moisture are concerned. For the latter two variables, the relative impact of forest change is proportional to the magnitude of its change. For changes that concern 35% of the catchment area or more, the effect of forest change on summer evapotranspiration is equally or even more important than the climate signal. For catchments with a glaciation of 10% or more in the control period, the glacier retreat significantly determines summer and annual runoff. The most important source of uncertainty in this study, though, is the climate scenario and it is highly recommended to apply an ensemble of climate scenarios in the impact studies. The results presented here are valid for the climatic region they were tested for, i.e., a humid, mid-latitude mountainous environment. They might be different for regions where the evaporation is a major component of the water balance, for example. Nevertheless, a hydrological climate-impact study that assesses the additional impacts of forest and glacier change is new so far and provides insight into the question whether or not it is necessary to account for land cover changes as part of climate change impacts on hydrological systems.

A deviant EEG brain microstate in acute, neuroleptic-naive schizophrenics at rest

Momentary brain electric field configurations are manifestations of momentary global functional states of the brain. Field configurations tend to persist over some time in the sub-second range (“microstates”) and concentrate within few classes of configurations. Accordingly, brain field data can be reduced efficiently into sequences of re-occurring classes of brain microstates, not overlapping in time. Different configurations must have been caused by different active neural ensembles, and thus different microstates assumedly implement different functions. The question arises whether the aberrant schizophrenic mentation is associated with specific changes in the repertory of microstates. Continuous sequences of brain electric field maps (multichannel EEG resting data) from 9 neuroleptic-naive, first-episode, acute schizophrenics and from 18 matched controls were analyzed. The map series were assigned to four individual microstate classes; these were tested for differences between groups. One microstate class displayed significantly different field configurations and shorter durations in patients than controls; degree of shortening correlated with severity of paranoid symptomatology. The three other microstate classes showed no group differences related to psychopathology. Schizophrenic thinking apparently is not a continuous bias in brain functions, but consists of intermittent occurrences of inappropriate brain microstates that open access to inadequate processing strategies and context information

Light-cone Wilson loop in classical lattice gauge theory

The transverse broadening of an energetic jet passing through a non-Abelian plasma is believed to be described by the thermal expectation value of a light-cone Wilson loop. In this exploratory study, we measure the light-cone Wilson loop with classical lattice gauge theory simulations. We observe, as suggested by previous studies, that there are strong interactions already at short transverse distances, which may lead to more efficient jet quenching than in leading-order perturbation theory. We also verify that the asymptotics of the Wilson loop do not change qualitatively when crossing the light cone, which supports arguments in the literature that infrared contributions to jet quenching can be studied with dimensionally reduced simulations in the space-like domain. Finally we speculate on possibilities for full four-dimensional lattice studies of the same observable, perhaps by employing shifted boundary conditions in order to simulate ensembles boosted by an imaginary velocity.