Past and future evolution of Abies alba forests in Europe - comparison of a dynamic vegetation model with palaeo data and observations

Information on how species distributions and ecosystem services are impacted by anthropogenic climate change is important for adaptation planning. Palaeo data suggest that Abies alba formed forests under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in Europe and might be a native substitute for widespread drought-sensitive temperate and boreal tree species such as beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) under future global warming conditions. Here, we combine pollen and macrofossil data, modern observations, and results from transient simulations with the LPX-Bern dynamic global vegetation model to assess past and future distributions of A. alba in Europe. LPX-Bern is forced with climate anomalies from a run over the past 21 000 years with the Community Earth System Model, modern climatology, and with 21st-century multimodel ensemble results for the high-emission RCP8.5 and the stringent mitigation RCP2.6 pathway. The simulated distribution for present climate encompasses the modern range of A. alba, with the model exceeding the present distribution in north-western and southern Europe. Mid-Holocene pollen data and model results agree for southern Europe, suggesting that at present, human impacts suppress the distribution in southern Europe. Pollen and model results both show range expansion starting during the Bølling–Allerød warm period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold, and resuming during the Holocene. The distribution of A. alba expands to the north-east in all future scenarios, whereas the potential (currently unrealized) range would be substantially reduced in southern Europe under RCP8.5. A. alba maintains its current range in central Europe despite competition by other thermophilous tree species. Our combined palaeoecological and model evidence suggest that A. alba may ensure important ecosystem services including stand and slope stability, infrastructure protection, and carbon sequestration under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in central Europe.

Impacts of changing climate and land use on vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean ecosystem: insights from paleoecology and dynamic modeling

Forests near the Mediterranean coast have been shaped by millennia of human disturbance. Consequently, ecological studies relying on modern observations or historical records may have difficulty assessing natural vegetation dynamics under current and future climate. We combined a sedimentary pollen record from Lago di Massacciucoli, Tuscany, Italy with simulations from the LandClim dynamic vegetation model to determine what vegetation preceded intense human disturbance, how past changes in vegetation relate to fire and browsing, and the potential of an extinct vegetation type under present climate. We simulated vegetation dynamics near Lago di Massaciucoli for the last 7,000 years using a local chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction with combinations of three fire regimes (small infrequent, large infrequent, small frequent) and three browsing intensities (no browsing, light browsing, and moderate browsing), and compared model output to pollen data. Simulations with low disturbance support pollen-inferred evidence for a mixed forest dominated by Quercus ilex (a Mediterranean species) and Abies alba (a montane species). Whereas pollen data record the collapse of A. alba after 6000 cal yr bp, simulated populations expanded with declining summer temperatures during the late Holocene. Simulations with increased fire and browsing are consistent with evidence for expansion by deciduous species after A. alba collapsed. According to our combined paleo-environmental and modeling evidence, mixed Q. ilex and A. alba forests remain possible with current climate and limited disturbance, and provide a viable management objective for ecosystems near the Mediterranean coast and in regions that are expected to experience a mediterranean-type climate in the future.

A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene ¹⁴C and CO₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties

Radiocarbon production, solar activity, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar-induced climate change are reconstructed for the Holocene (10 to 0 kyr BP), and TSI is predicted for the next centuries. The IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon and ice core CO2 records, reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole, and instrumental data of solar activity are applied in the Bern3D-LPJ, a fully featured Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a 3-D dynamic ocean, ocean sediments, and a dynamic vegetation model, and in formulations linking radiocarbon production, the solar modulation potential, and TSI. Uncertainties are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and bounding scenarios. Transient climate simulations span the past 21 thousand years, thereby considering the time lags and uncertainties associated with the last glacial termination. Our carbon-cycle-based modern estimate of radiocarbon production of 1.7 atoms cm−2 s−1 is lower than previously reported for the cosmogenic nuclide production model by Masarik and Beer (2009) and is more in-line with Kovaltsov et al. (2012). In contrast to earlier studies, periods of high solar activity were quite common not only in recent millennia, but throughout the Holocene. Notable deviations compared to earlier reconstructions are also found on decadal to centennial timescales. We show that earlier Holocene reconstructions, not accounting for the interhemispheric gradients in radiocarbon, are biased low. Solar activity is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average (650 MeV), but the absolute values remain weakly constrained due to uncertainties in the normalisation of the solar modulation to instrumental data. A recently published solar activity–TSI relationship yields small changes in Holocene TSI of the order of 1 W m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.16 W m−2. Related solar-induced variations in global mean surface air temperature are simulated to be within 0.1 K. Autoregressive modelling suggests a declining trend of solar activity in the 21st century towards average Holocene conditions.

Regional climate model simulations for Europe at 6 and 0.2 k BP: sensitivity to changes in anthropogenic deforestation

This study aims to evaluate the direct effects of anthropogenic deforestation on simulated climate at two contrasting periods in the Holocene, ~6 and ~0.2 k BP in Europe. We apply We apply the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA3, a regional climate model with 50 km spatial resolution, for both time periods, considering three alternative descriptions of the past vegetation: (i) potential natural vegetation (V) simulated by the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, (ii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use (deforestation) from the HYDE3.1 (History Database of the Global Environment) scenario (V + H3.1), and (iii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use from the KK10 scenario (V + KK10). The climate model results show that the simulated effects of deforestation depend on both local/regional climate and vegetation characteristics. At ~6 k BP the extent of simulated deforestation in Europe is generally small, but there are areas where deforestation is large enough to produce significant differences in summer temperatures of 0.5–1 °C. At ~0.2 k BP, extensive deforestation, particularly according to the KK10 model, leads to significant temperature differences in large parts of Europe in both winter and summer. In winter, deforestation leads to lower temperatures because of the differences in albedo between forested and unforested areas, particularly in the snow-covered regions. In summer, deforestation leads to higher temperatures in central and eastern Europe because evapotranspiration from unforested areas is lower than from forests. Summer evaporation is already limited in the southernmost parts of Europe under potential vegetation conditions and, therefore, cannot become much lower. Accordingly, the albedo effect dominates in southern Europe also in summer, which implies that deforestation causes a decrease in temperatures. Differences in summer temperature due to deforestation range from −1 °C in south-western Europe to +1 °C in eastern Europe. The choice of anthropogenic land-cover scenario has a significant influence on the simulated climate, but uncertainties in palaeoclimate proxy data for the two time periods do not allow for a definitive discrimination among climate model results.

Demographic model of the Swiss cattle population for the years 2009-2011 stratified by gender, age and production type

Demographic composition and dynamics of animal and human populations are important determinants for the transmission dynamics of infectious disease and for the effect of infectious disease or environmental disasters on productivity. In many circumstances, demographic data are not available or of poor quality. Since 1999 Switzerland has been recording cattle movements, births, deaths and slaughter in an animal movement database (AMD). The data present in the AMD offers the opportunity for analysing and understanding the dynamic of the Swiss cattle population. A dynamic population model can serve as a building block for future disease transmission models and help policy makers in developing strategies regarding animal health, animal welfare, livestock management and productivity. The Swiss cattle population was therefore modelled using a system of ordinary differential equations. The model was stratified by production type (dairy or beef), age and gender (male and female calves: 0-1 year, heifers and young bulls: 1-2 years, cows and bulls: older than 2 years). The simulation of the Swiss cattle population reflects the observed pattern accurately. Parameters were optimized on the basis of the goodness-of-fit (using the Powell algorithm). The fitted rates were compared with calculated rates from the AMD and differed only marginally. This gives confidence in the fitted rates of parameters that are not directly deductible from the AMD (e.g. the proportion of calves that are moved from the dairy system to fattening plants).

Evaluation of HA-fibrin-based hydrogel for restoration of degenerated intervertebral disc

Introduction: Intervertebral disc degeneration is associated with loss of nucleus pulposus (NP) tissue and reduced disc height[1]. A number of therapies, including synthetic and natural biomaterials, have been developed to restore full disc function and to minimize the pain and disability caused by this disease. Fibrin-based biomaterials are used as a replacement for NP or as a cell carrier for tissue engineering approaches[2]. While the behavior of such gels is well-characterized from a material point of view, little is known about their contribution to intervertebral disc (IVD) restoration under dynamic loads. The aim of the present study is the evaluation of a hyaluronic acid fibrin-based hydrogel (ProCore) used to repair an in vitro model of disc degeneration under dynamic loading. Methods: In vitro model of disc degeneration was induced in intact coccygeal bovine IVD by papain digestion of the NP as previously described[3]. In order to characterize fibrin hydrogels, four experimental groups were considered: 1) intact IVD (control), 2) IVD injected with PBS, 3) injection of hydrogels in degenerative IVD and 4) injection of hydrogels in combination with human bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) in degenerative IVD. All of the groups were subjected to dynamic loading protocols consisting of 0.2MPa static compression superimposed with ±2° torsion at 0.2Hz for 8h per day and maintained for 7 days. Additionally, one group consisted of degenerative IVD injected with hydrogel and subjected to static compression. Disc heights were monitored after the duration of the loading and compared to the initial disc height. The macrostructure of the formed tissue and the cellular distribution was evaluated by histological means. Results: After one week of loading, the degenerative IVD filled with hydrogel in combination with MSC (dynamic load), hydrogels (dynamic load) and hydrogels (static load) showed a reduction in height by 30%, 15% and 20%, respectively, as compared to their initial disc height. Histological sections showed that the HA-fibrin gel fully occupied the nucleotomized region of the disc and that fibrin was effective in filling the discontinuities of the cavity region. Furthermore, the cells were homogenously distributed along the fibrin hydrogels after 7 days of loading. Discussion: In this study, we showed that fibrin hydrogels showed a good integration within the papain-induced model of disc degeneration and can withstand the applied loads. Fibrin hydrogels can contribute to disc restoration by possibly maintaining adequate stiffness of the tissue and thus preventing disorganization of the surrounding IVD. References: 1. Jarman, J.P., Arpinar, V.E., Baruah, D., Klein, A.P., Maiman, D.J., and Tugan Muftuler, L. (2014). Intervertebral disc height loss demonstrates the threshold of major pathological changes during degeneration. Eur Spine J . 2. Colombini, A., Ceriani, C., Banfi, G., Brayda-Bruno, M., and Moretti, M. (2014). Fibrin in intervertebral disc tissue engineering. Tissue Eng Part B Rev . 3. Chan, S.C., Bürki, A., Bonél, H.M., Benneker, L.M., and Gantenbein-Ritter, B. (2013). Papain-induced in vitro disc degeneration model for the study of injectable nucleus pulposus therapy. Spine J 13, 273-283. Acknowledgement We thank the Swiss National Science Foundation SNF #310030_153411 for funding.

A combined biomaterial and cellular approach for annulus fibrosus rupture repair

Recurrent intervertebral disc (IVD) herniation and degenerative disc disease have been identified as the most important factors contributing to persistent pain and disability after surgical discectomy. An annulus fibrosus (AF) closure device that provides immediate closure of the AF rupture, restores disc height, reduces further disc degeneration and enhances self-repair capacities is an unmet clinical need. In this study, a poly(trimethylene carbonate) (PTMC) scaffold seeded with human bone marrow derived mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) and covered with a poly(ester-urethane) (PU) membrane was assessed for AF rupture repair in a bovine organ culture annulotomy model under dynamic load for 14 days. PTMC scaffolds combined with the sutured PU membrane restored disc height of annulotomized discs and prevented herniation of nucleus pulposus (NP) tissue. Implanted MSCs showed an up-regulated gene expression of type V collagen, a potential AF marker, indicating in situ differentiation capability. Furthermore, MSCs delivered within PTMC scaffolds induced an up-regulation of anabolic gene expression and down-regulation of catabolic gene expression in adjacent native disc tissue. In conclusion, the combined biomaterial and cellular approach has the potential to hinder herniation of NP tissue, stabilize disc height, and positively modulate cell phenotype of native disc tissue.

ITP in dynamically double-coated fused-silica capillaries

Bidirectional ITP in fused-silica capillaries double-coated with Polybrene and poly-(vinylsulfonate) is a robust approach for analysis of low-molecular-mass compounds. EOF towards the cathode is strong (mobility >4.0 x 10(-8) m(2)/Vs) within the entire pH range investigated (2.40-8.08), dependent on ionic strength and buffer used and, at constant ionic strength, higher at alkaline pH. Electrokinetic separations and transport in such coated capillaries can be described with a dynamic computer model which permits the combined simulation of electrophoresis and electroosmosis in which the EOF is predicted either with a constant (i.e. pH- and ionic strength-independent) or a pH- and ionic strength-dependent electroosmotic mobility. Detector profiles predicted by computer simulation agree qualitatively well with bidirectional isotachopherograms that are monitored with a setup comprising two axial contactless conductivity detectors and a UV absorbance detector. The varying EOF predicted with a pH- and ionic strength-dependent electroosmotic mobility can be regarded as being realistic.

Cost effectiveness of home based population screening for Chlamydia trachomatis in the UK: economic evaluation of chlamydia screening studies (ClaSS) project

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the cost effectiveness of screening for Chlamydia trachomatis compared with a policy of no organised screening in the United Kingdom. DESIGN: Economic evaluation using a transmission dynamic mathematical model. SETTING: Central and southwest England. PARTICIPANTS: Hypothetical population of 50,000 men and women, in which all those aged 16-24 years were invited to be screened each year. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cost effectiveness based on major outcomes averted, defined as pelvic inflammatory disease, ectopic pregnancy, infertility, or neonatal complications. RESULTS: The incremental cost per major outcome averted for a programme of screening women only (assuming eight years of screening) was 22,300 pounds (33,000 euros; $45,000) compared with no organised screening. For a programme screening both men and women, the incremental cost effectiveness ratio was approximately 28,900 pounds. Pelvic inflammatory disease leading to hospital admission was the most frequently averted major outcome. The model was highly sensitive to the incidence of major outcomes and to uptake of screening. When both were increased the cost effectiveness ratio fell to 6200 pound per major outcome averted for screening women only. CONCLUSIONS: Proactive register based screening for chlamydia is not cost effective if the uptake of screening and incidence of complications are based on contemporary empirical studies, which show lower rates than commonly assumed. These data are relevant to discussions about the cost effectiveness of the opportunistic model of chlamydia screening being introduced in England.

Factors Controlling Species Richness in Alpine Plant Communities: An Assessment of the Importance of Stress and Disturbance

This study explores whether the high variability of vascular plant diversity among alpine plant communities can be explained by stress and/or disturbance intensities. Species numbers of 14 alpine plant communities were sampled in the Swiss Alps. To quantify the intensity of 13 stress and 6 disturbance factors potentially controlling plant life in these communities, a survey was conducted by asking numerous specialists in alpine vegetation to assess the importance of the different factors for each community. The estimated values were combined in stress- and disturbance-indices which were compared with diversity according to the Intermediate Stress Hypothesis, the Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis, and the Dynamic Equilibrium Model, respectively. Each of these theories explained a part of the variability in the species richness, but only the Dynamic Equilibrium Model provided a complete and consistent explanation. The last model suggests that community species richness within the alpine life zone is generally controlled by stress intensity. Disturbance and competition seem to play a secondary role by fine-tuning diversity in specific communities. As diversity is primarily limited by stress, a moderation of temperature-related stress factors, as a result of global warming, may cause a shift of the equilibrium between stress, disturbance, and competition in alpine ecosystems.

Repair of Annulus fibrosus with Genipin-enhanced Fibrin Hydrogel and silk membrane- fleece

Introduction Low back pain is often caused by a trauma causing disc herniation and /or disc degeneration. Although there are some promising approaches for nucleus pulposus repair, the inner tissue of the intervertebral disc (IVD) so far no treatment or repair is available for annulus fibrosus (AF) injuries. Here we aimed to develop a new method to seal and repair AF injuries by using a silk fleece composite and a genipin enhanced hydrogel. Methods Bovine (b) IVDs were harvested under aseptic conditions and kept in free swelling conditions for 24h in high-glucose DMEM containing 5% bovine serum for equilibration (1). A circular 2mm biopsy punch (Polymed Medical Center, Switzerland) was used to form a reproducible defect in the AF. For filling the defect and keeping the silk composite in place a human-derived fibrin gel (Baxter Tisseel, Switzerland) enhanced with 4.2mg/ml of the cross linker genipin (Wako Chemicals GmbH, Germany) was used. The silk composite consists of a mesh- and a membrane side (Spintec Engineering GmbH, Germany); the membrane is facing outwards to form a seal. bIVDs were cultured in vitro for 14 days either under dynamic load in a custom-built bioreactor under physiological conditions (0.2MPa load and ±2° torsion at 0.2Hz for 8h/day) or static diurnal load of 0.2MPa (2). At the end of culture discs were checked for seal failure, disc height, metabolic activity, cell death by necrosis (LDH assay), DNA content and glycosaminoglycan content. Results Silk composite maintained its position throughout the 14 days of culture under loaded conditions. Although repaired discs performed slightly lower in cell activity, DNA and GAG content were in the range of the control. Also LDH resulted in similar values compared to control discs (Fig 1). Height loss in repaired discs was in the same range as for static diurnal loaded control samples. For dynamically loaded samples the decrease was comparable to the injured, unrepaired discs. Fig 1 LDH of repaired discs compared to control disc after 24h in free swelling conditions for equilibration and first three loading cycles. Conclusions Silk-genipin-fibrin reinforced hydrogel is a promising approach to close AF defects as tested by two degree of freedom loading. In further experiments cytocompatibility of genipin has to be investigated. References 1. Chan SC, Gantenbein-Ritter B. Preparation of intact bovine tail intervertebral discs for organ culture. J Vis Exp 2012, Feb 2;60(60):e3490. 2. Walser J, Ferguson SJ, Gantenbein-Ritter B. Design of a mechanical loading device to culture intact bovine caudal motional segments of the spine under twisting motion. In: Davies J, editors. Replacing animal models: a practical guide to creating and using biomimetic alternatives. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.; 2012. p. 89-105. Acknowledgements This project is funded by the Gerbert Rüf Stiftung project # GRS-028/13 and the Swiss National Science Project SNF #310030_153411.

Antibiotic-Resistant Neisseria gonorrhoeae Spread Faster with More Treatment, Not More Sexual Partners.

The sexually transmitted bacterium Neisseria gonorrhoeae has developed resistance to all antibiotic classes that have been used for treatment and strains resistant to multiple antibiotic classes have evolved. In many countries, there is only one antibiotic remaining for empirical N. gonorrhoeae treatment, and antibiotic management to counteract resistance spread is urgently needed. Understanding dynamics and drivers of resistance spread can provide an improved rationale for antibiotic management. In our study, we first used antibiotic resistance surveillance data to estimate the rates at which antibiotic-resistant N. gonorrhoeae spread in two host populations, heterosexual men (HetM) and men who have sex with men (MSM). We found higher rates of spread for MSM (0.86 to 2.38 y-1, mean doubling time: 6 months) compared to HetM (0.24 to 0.86 y-1, mean doubling time: 16 months). We then developed a dynamic transmission model to reproduce the observed dynamics of N. gonorrhoeae transmission in populations of heterosexual men and women (HMW) and MSM. We parameterized the model using sexual behavior data and calibrated it to N. gonorrhoeae prevalence and incidence data. In the model, antibiotic-resistant N. gonorrhoeae spread with a median rate of 0.88 y-1 in HMW and 3.12 y-1 in MSM. These rates correspond to median doubling times of 9 (HMW) and 3 (MSM) months. Assuming no fitness costs, the model shows the difference in the host population's treatment rate rather than the difference in the number of sexual partners explains the differential spread of resistance. As higher treatment rates result in faster spread of antibiotic resistance, treatment recommendations for N. gonorrhoeae should carefully balance prevention of infection and avoidance of resistance spread.