Large-scale land acquisition and its effects on the water balance in investor and host countries

This study examines the validity of the assumption that international large-scale land acquisition (LSLA) is motivated by the desire to secure control over water resources, which is commonly referred to as ‘water grabbing’. This assumption was repeatedly expressed in recent years, ascribing the said motivation to the Gulf States in particular. However, it must be considered of hypothetical nature, as the few global studies conducted so far focused primarily on the effects of LSLA on host countries or on trade in virtual water. In this study, we analyse the effects of 475 intended or concluded land deals recorded in the Land Matrix database on the water balance in both host and investor countries. We also examine how these effects relate to water stress and how they contribute to global trade in virtual water. The analysis shows that implementation of the LSLAs in our sample would result in global water savings based on virtual water trade. At the level of individual LSLA host countries, however, water use intensity would increase, particularly in 15 sub-Saharan states. From an investor country perspective, the analysis reveals that countries often suspected of using LSLA to relieve pressure on their domestic water resources—such as China, India, and all Gulf States except Saudi Arabia—invest in agricultural activities abroad that are less water-intensive compared to their average domestic crop production. Conversely, large investor countries such as the United States, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and Japan are disproportionately externalizing crop water consumption through their international land investments. Statistical analyses also show that host countries with abundant water resources are not per se favoured targets of LSLA. Indeed, further analysis reveals that land investments originating in water-stressed countries have only a weak tendency to target areas with a smaller water risk.

Modeling the marine aragonite cycle: changes under rising carbon dioxide and its role in shallow water CaCO3 dissolution

The marine aragonite cycle has been included in the global biogeochemical model PISCES to study the role of aragonite in shallow water CaCO3 dissolution. Aragonite production is parameterized as a function of mesozooplankton biomass and aragonite saturation state of ambient waters. Observation-based estimates of marine carbonate production and dissolution are well reproduced by the model and about 60% of the combined CaCO3 water column dissolution from aragonite and calcite is simulated above 2000 m. In contrast, a calcite-only version yields a much smaller fraction. This suggests that the aragonite cycle should be included in models for a realistic representation of CaCO3 dissolution and alkalinity. For the SRES A2 CO2 scenario, production rates of aragonite are projected to notably decrease after 2050. By the end of this century, global aragonite production is reduced by 29% and total CaCO3 production by 19% relative to pre-industrial. Geographically, the effect from increasing atmospheric CO2, and the subsequent reduction in saturation state, is largest in the subpolar and polar areas where the modeled aragonite production is projected to decrease by 65% until 2100.

Potentials and constraints of modeling for transdisciplinary co-producing strategies for sustainable water governance

Both climate change and socio-economic development will significantly modify the supply and consumption of water in future. Consequently, regional development has to face aggravation of existing or emergence of new conflicts of interest. In this context, transdisciplinary co-production of knowledge is considered as an important means for coping with these challenges. Accordingly, the MontanAqua project aims at developing strategies for more sustainable water management in the study area Crans-Montana-Sierre (Switzerland) in a transdisciplinary way. It strives for co-producing system, target and transformation knowledge among researchers, policy makers, public administration and civil society organizations. The research process basically consisted of the following steps: First, the current water situation in the study region was investigated. How much water is available? How much water is being used? How are decisions on water distribution and use taken? Second, participatory scenario workshops were conducted in order to identify the stakeholders’ visions of regional development. Third, the water situation in 2050 was simulated by modeling the evolution of water resources and water use and by reflecting on the institutional aspects. These steps laid ground for jointly assessing the consequences of the stakeholders’ visions of development in view of scientific data regarding governance, availability and use of water in the region as well as developing necessary transformation knowledge. During all of these steps researchers have collaborated with stakeholders in the support group RegiEau. The RegiEau group consists of key representatives of owners, managers, users, and pressure groups related to water and landscape: representatives of the communes (mostly the presidents), the canton (administration and parliament), water management associations, agriculture, viticulture, hydropower, tourism, and landscape protection. The aim of the talk is to explore potentials and constraints of scientific modeling of water availability and use within the process of transdisciplinary co-producing strategies for more sustainable water governance.

Modeling tree water deficit from microclimate: an approach to quantifying drought stress

Tree water deficit estimated by measuring water-related changes in stem radius (DeltaW) was compared with tree water deficit estimated from the output of a simple, physiologically reasonable model (DeltaW(E)), with soil water potential (Psi(soil)) and atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) as inputs. Values of DeltaW were determined by monitoring stem radius changes with dendrometers and detrending the results for growth, We followed changes in DeltaW and DeltaW(E) in Pinus sylvestris L. and Quercus pubescens Willd. over 2 years at a dry site (2001-2002; Salgesch, Wallis) and in Picea abies (L.) Karst. for 1 year at a wet site (1998; Davos, Graubuenden) in the Swiss Alps. The seasonal courses of DeltaW in deciduous species and in conifers at the same site were similar and could be largely explained by variation in DeltaW(E). This finding strongly suggests that DeltaW, despite the known species-specific differences in stomatal response to microclimate, is mainly explained by a combination of atmospheric and soil conditions. Consequently, we concluded that trees are unable to maintain any particular DeltaW. Either Psi(soil) or VPD alone provided poorer estimates of AWthan a model incorporating both factors. As a first approximation of DeltaW(E), Psi(soil) can be weighted so that the negative mean Psi(soil) reaches 65 to 75% of the positive mean daytime VPD over a season (Q. pubescens: similar to65%, P abies: similar to70%, P sylvestris: similar to75%). The differences in DeltaW among species can be partially explained by a different weighting of Psi(soil) against VPD. The DeltaW of P. sylvestris was more dependent on Psi(soil) than that of Q. pubescens, but less than that of P. abies, and was less dependent on VPD than that of P. abies and Q. pubescens. The model worked well for P. abies at the wet site and for Q. pubescens and P. sylvestris at the dry site, and may be useful for estimating water deficit in other tree species.

Mineralogical and isotopic record of diagenesis from the Opalinus Clay formation at Benken, Switzerland: Implications for the modeling of pore-water chemistry in a clay formation

Argillaceous rocks are considered to be a suitable geological barrier for the long-term containment of wastes. Their efficiency at retarding contaminant migration is assessed using reactive-transport experiments and modeling, the latter requiring a sound understanding of pore-water chemistry. The building of a pore-water model, which is mandatory for laboratory experiments mimicking in situ conditions, requires a detailed knowledge of the rock mineralogy and of minerals at equilibrium with present-day pore waters. Using a combination of petrological, mineralogical, and isotopic studies, the present study focused on the reduced Opalinus Clay formation (Fm) of the Benken borehole (30 km north of Zurich) which is intended for nuclear-waste disposal in Switzerland. A diagenetic sequence is proposed, which serves as a basis for determining the minerals stable in the formation and their textural relationships. Early cementation of dominant calcite, rare dolomite, and pyrite formed by bacterial sulfate reduction, was followed by formation of iron-rich calcite, ankerite, siderite, glauconite, (Ba, Sr) sulfates, and traces of sphalerite and galena. The distribution and abundance of siderite depends heavily on the depositional environment (and consequently on the water column). Benken sediment deposition during Aalenian times corresponds to an offshore environment with the early formation of siderite concretions at the water/sediment interface at the fluctuating boundary between the suboxic iron reduction and the sulfate reduction zones. Diagenetic minerals (carbonates except dolomite, sulfates, silicates) remained stable from their formation to the present. Based on these mineralogical and geochemical data, the mineral assemblage previously used for the geochemical model of the pore waters at Mont Terri may be applied to Benken without significant changes. These further investigations demonstrate the need for detailed mineralogical and geochemical study to refine the model of pore-water chemistry in a clay formation.

Modeling of temperature and turbidity in a natural lake and a reservoir connected by pumped-storage operations

Pumped-storage (PS) systems are used to store electric energy as potential energy for release during peak demand. We investigate the impacts of a planned 1000 MW PS scheme connecting Lago Bianco with Lago di Poschiavo (Switzerland) on temperature and particle mass concentration in both basins. The upper (turbid) basin is a reservoir receiving large amounts of fine particles from the partially glaciated watershed, while the lower basin is a much clearer natural lake. Stratification, temperature and particle concentrations in the two basins were simulated with and without PS for four different hydrological conditions and 27 years of meteorological forcing using the software CE-QUAL-W2. The simulations showed that the PS operations lead to an increase in temperature in both basins during most of the year. The increase is most pronounced (up to 4°C) in the upper hypolimnion of the natural lake toward the end of summer stratification and is partially due to frictional losses in the penstocks, pumps and turbines. The remainder of the warming is from intense coupling to the atmosphere while water resides in the shallower upper reservoir. These impacts are most pronounced during warm and dry years, when the upper reservoir is strongly heated and the effects are least concealed by floods. The exchange of water between the two basins relocates particles from the upper reservoir to the lower lake, where they accumulate during summer in the upper hypolimnion (10 to 20 mg L−1) but also to some extent decrease light availability in the trophic surface layer.

Where the land is greener: Case studies and analysis of soil and water conservation initiatives worldwide

‘where the land is greener’ looks at soil and water conservation from a global perspective. In total, 42 soil and water conservation technologies and 28 approaches are described – each fully illustrated with photographs, graphs and line drawings – as applied in case studies in more than 20 countries around the world. This unique presentation of case studies draws on WOCAT’s extensive database, gathered in over 12 years of field experience. The book is intended as a prototype for national and regional compilations of sustainable land management practices a practical – instrument for making field knowledge available to decision makers. Various land use categories are covered, from crop farming to grazing and forestry. The technologies presented range from terrace-building to agroforestry systems; from rehabilitation of common pastures to conservation agriculture; from Vermiculture to water harvesting. Several of these technologies are already well-established successes – others are innovative, relatively unknown, but full of promise. Descriptions of the various technologies are complemented by studies of the ‘approaches’ that have underpinned their development and dissemination. Some of these approaches were developed specifically for individual projects; others developed and spread spontaneously in fascinating processes that offer a new perspective for development policy. In addition to the case studies, the book includes two analytical sections on the technologies and approaches under study. By identifying common elements of success, these analyses offer hope for productive conservation efforts at the local level with simultaneous global environmental benefits. Policy pointers for decision makers and donors offer a new impetus for further investment – to make the land greener.

Identification of glacial meltwater runoff in a karstic environment and its implication for present and future water availability

Glaciers all over the world are expected to continue to retreat due to the global warming throughout the 21st century. Consequently, future seasonal water availability might become scarce once glacier areas have declined below a certain threshold affecting future water management strategies. Particular attention should be paid to glaciers located in a karstic environment, as parts of the meltwater can be drained by underlying karst systems, making it difficult to assess water availability. In this study tracer experiments, karst modeling and glacier melt modeling are combined in order to identify flow paths in a high alpine, glacierized, karstic environment (Glacier de la Plaine Morte, Switzerland) and to investigate current and predict future downstream water availability. Flow paths through the karst underground were determined with natural and fluorescent tracers. Subsequently, geologic information and the findings from tracer experiments were assembled in a karst model. Finally, glacier melt projections driven with a climate scenario were performed to discuss future water availability in the area surrounding the glacier. The results suggest that during late summer glacier meltwater is rapidly drained through well-developed channels at the glacier bottom to the north of the glacier, while during low flow season meltwater enters into the karst and is drained to the south. Climate change projections with the glacier melt model reveal that by the end of the century glacier melt will be significantly reduced in the summer, jeopardizing water availability in glacier-fed karst springs.

Modeling the heterogeneous ice and gas coma of Comet 103P/Hartley 2

The spectacular images of Comet 103P/Hartley 2 recorded by the Medium Resolution Instrument (MRI) and High Resolution Instrument (HRI) on board of the Extrasolar Planet Observation and Deep Impact Extended Investigation (EPOXI) spacecraft, as the Deep Impact extended mission, revealed that its bi-lobed very active nucleus outgasses volatiles heterogeneously. Indeed, CO2 is the primary driver of activity by dragging out chunks of pure ice out of the nucleus from the sub-solar lobe that appear to be the main source of water in Hartley 2's coma by sublimating slowly as they go away from the nucleus. However, water vapor is released by direct sublimation of the nucleus at the waist without any significant amount of either CO2 or icy grains. The coma structure for a comet with such areas of diverse chemistry differs from the usual models where gases are produced in a homogeneous way from the surface. We use the fully kinetic Direct Simulation Monte Carlo model of Tenishev et al. (Tenishev, V.M., Combi, M.R., Davidsson, B. [2008]. Astrophys. J. 685, 659-677; Tenishev, V.M., Combi, M.R., Rubin, M. [2011]. Astrophys. J. 732, 104-120) applied to Comet 103P/Hartley 2 including sublimating icy grains to reproduce the observations made by EPOXI and ground-based measurements. A realistic bi-lobed nucleus with a succession of active areas with different chemistry was included in the model enabling us to study in details the coma of Hartley 2. The different gas production rates from each area were found by fitting the spectra computed using a line-by-line non-LTE radiative transfer model to the HRI observations. The presence of icy grains with long lifetimes, which are pushed anti-sunward by radiation pressure, explains the observed OH asymmetry with enhancement on the night side of the coma.

MODELING REACTIVE GAS UPTAKE, TRANSPORT, AND TRANSFORMATION IN AGGREGATED SOILS

Gas diffusion research in soils covers, to a large extent, the transport behavior of practically insoluble gases. We extend the mathematical description of gas transport to include reactive gaseous components that hydrolyze in water such as SO2 and CO2. The path between the free atmosphere and the microporous niches is modeled by assuming penetration through gas-filled macropores, air-water phase transfer, and diffusion and speciation in the liquid phase. For hydrolyzable gases, the rate of mass transfer into and the total absorption capacity of the soil solution may be high. Both the capacity and the transfer rate are influenced by the soil-solution pH; for high pH, they become extremely high for SO2. The soil absorption of such gases is also influenced by soil structure. Well-aerated, near-neutral soils are a potentially important sink for SO2.

Adaptation options under climate change for multifunctional agriculture: a simulation study for western Switzerland

Besides its primary role in producing food and fiber, agriculture also has relevant effects on several other functions, such as management of renewable natural resources. Climate change (CC) may lead to new trade-offs between agricultural functions or aggravate existing ones, but suitable agricultural management may maintain or even improve the ability of agroecosystems to supply these functions. Hence, it is necessary to identify relevant drivers (e.g., cropping practices, local conditions) and their interactions, and how they affect agricultural functions in a changing climate. The goal of this study was to use a modeling framework to analyze the sensitivity of indicators of three important agricultural functions, namely crop yield (food and fiber production function), soil erosion (soil conservation function), and nutrient leaching (clean water provision function), to a wide range of agricultural practices for current and future climate conditions. In a two-step approach, cropping practices that explain high proportions of variance of the different indicators were first identified by an analysis of variance-based sensitivity analysis. Then, most suitable combinations of practices to achieve best performance with respect to each indicator were extracted, and trade-offs were analyzed. The procedure was applied to a region in western Switzerland, considering two different soil types to test the importance of local environmental constraints. Results show that the sensitivity of crop yield and soil erosion due to management is high, while nutrient leaching mostly depends on soil type. We found that the influence of most agricultural practices does not change significantly with CC; only irrigation becomes more relevant as a consequence of decreasing summer rainfall. Trade-offs were identified when focusing on best performances of each indicator separately, and these were amplified under CC. For adaptation to CC in the selected study region, conservation soil management and the use of cropped grasslands appear to be the most suitable options to avoid trade-offs.

Interdisciplinary assessment of complex regional water systems and their future evolution: how socioeconomic drivers can matter more than climate

Modeling of future water systems at the regional scale is a difficult task due to the complexity of current structures (multiple competing water uses, multiple actors, formal and informal rules) both temporally and spatially. Representing this complexity in the modeling process is a challenge that can be addressed by an interdisciplinary and holistic approach. The assessment of the water system of the Crans-Montana-Sierre area (Switzerland) and its evolution until 2050 were tackled by combining glaciological, hydrogeological, and hydrological measurements and modeling with the evaluation of water use through documentary, statistical and interview-based analyses. Four visions of future regional development were co-produced with a group of stakeholders and were then used as a basis for estimating future water demand. The comparison of the available water resource and the water demand at monthly time scale allowed us to conclude that for the four scenarios socioeconomic factors will impact on the future water systems more than climatic factors. An analysis of the sustainability of the current and future water systems based on four visions of regional development allowed us to identify those scenarios that will be more sustainable and that should be adopted by the decision-makers. The results were then presented to the stakeholders through five key messages. The challenges of communicating the results in such a way with stakeholders are discussed at the end of the article.

Functional error modeling for uncertainty quantification in hydrogeology

Approximate models (proxies) can be employed to reduce the computational costs of estimating uncertainty. The price to pay is that the approximations introduced by the proxy model can lead to a biased estimation. To avoid this problem and ensure a reliable uncertainty quantification, we propose to combine functional data analysis and machine learning to build error models that allow us to obtain an accurate prediction of the exact response without solving the exact model for all realizations. We build the relationship between proxy and exact model on a learning set of geostatistical realizations for which both exact and approximate solvers are run. Functional principal components analysis (FPCA) is used to investigate the variability in the two sets of curves and reduce the dimensionality of the problem while maximizing the retained information. Once obtained, the error model can be used to predict the exact response of any realization on the basis of the sole proxy response. This methodology is purpose-oriented as the error model is constructed directly for the quantity of interest, rather than for the state of the system. Also, the dimensionality reduction performed by FPCA allows a diagnostic of the quality of the error model to assess the informativeness of the learning set and the fidelity of the proxy to the exact model. The possibility of obtaining a prediction of the exact response for any newly generated realization suggests that the methodology can be effectively used beyond the context of uncertainty quantification, in particular for Bayesian inference and optimization.