112 resultados para Calibration uncertainty


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Water-conducting faults and fractures were studied in the granite-hosted A¨ spo¨ Hard Rock Laboratory (SE Sweden). On a scale of decametres and larger, steeply dipping faults dominate and contain a variety of different fault rocks (mylonites, cataclasites, fault gouges). On a smaller scale, somewhat less regular fracture patterns were found. Conceptual models of the fault and fracture geometries and of the properties of rock types adjacent to fractures were derived and used as input for the modelling of in situ dipole tracer tests that were conducted in the framework of the Tracer Retention Understanding Experiment (TRUE-1) on a scale of metres. After the identification of all relevant transport and retardation processes, blind predictions of the breakthroughs of conservative to moderately sorbing tracers were calculated and then compared with the experimental data. This paper provides the geological basis and model calibration, while the predictive and inverse modelling work is the topic of the companion paper [J. Contam. Hydrol. 61 (2003) 175]. The TRUE-1 experimental volume is highly fractured and contains the same types of fault rocks and alterations as on the decametric scale. The experimental flow field was modelled on the basis of a 2D-streamtube formalism with an underlying homogeneous and isotropic transmissivity field. Tracer transport was modelled using the dual porosity medium approach, which is linked to the flow model by the flow porosity. Given the substantial pumping rates in the extraction borehole, the transport domain has a maximum width of a few centimetres only. It is concluded that both the uncertainty with regard to the length of individual fractures and the detailed geometry of the network along the flowpath between injection and extraction boreholes are not critical because flow is largely one-dimensional, whether through a single fracture or a network. Process identification and model calibration were based on a single uranine breakthrough (test PDT3), which clearly showed that matrix diffusion had to be included in the model even over the short experimental time scales, evidenced by a characteristic shape of the trailing edge of the breakthrough curve. Using the geological information and therefore considering limited matrix diffusion into a thin fault gouge horizon resulted in a good fit to the experiment. On the other hand, fresh granite was found not to interact noticeably with the tracers over the time scales of the experiments. While fracture-filling gouge materials are very efficient in retarding tracers over short periods of time (hours–days), their volume is very small and, with time progressing, retardation will be dominated by altered wall rock and, finally, by fresh granite. In such rocks, both porosity (and therefore the effective diffusion coefficient) and sorption Kds are more than one order of magnitude smaller compared to fault gouge, thus indicating that long-term retardation is expected to occur but to be less pronounced.

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To calibrate the in situ 10Be production rate, we collected surface samples from nine large granitic boulders within the deposits of a rock avalanche that occurred in AD 1717 in the upper Ferret Valley, Mont Blanc Massif, Italy. The 10Be concentrations were extremely low and successfully measured within 10% analytical uncertainty or less. The concentrations vary from 4829 ± 448 to 5917 ± 476 at g−1. Using the historical age exposure time, we calculated the local and sea level-high latitude (i.e. ≥60°) cosmogenic 10Be spallogenic production rates. Depending on the scaling schemes, these vary between 4.60 ± 0.38 and 5.26 ± 0.43 at g−1 a−1. Although they correlate well with global values, our production rates are clearly higher than those from more recent calibration sites. We conclude that our 10Be production rate is a mean and an upper bound for production rates in the Massif region over the past 300 years. This rate is probably influenced by inheritance and will yield inaccurate (e.g. too young) exposure ages when applied to surface-exposure studies in the area. Other independently dated rock-avalanche deposits in the region that are approximately 103 years old could be considered as possible calibration sites.

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Palaeoclimatic information can be retrieved from the diffusion of the stable water isotope signal during firnification of snow. The diffusion length, a measure for the amount of diffusion a layer has experienced, depends on the firn temperature and the accumulation rate. We show that the estimation of the diffusion length using power spectral densities (PSDs) of the record of a single isotope species can be biased by uncertainties in spectral properties of the isotope signal prior to diffusion. By using a second water isotope and calculating the difference in diffusion lengths between the two isotopes, this problem is circumvented. We study the PSD method applied to two isotopes in detail and additionally present a new forward diffusion method for retrieving the differential diffusion length based on the Pearson correlation between the two isotope signals. The two methods are discussed and extensively tested on synthetic data which are generated in a Monte Carlo manner. We show that calibration of the PSD method with this synthetic data is necessary to be able to objectively determine the differential diffusion length. The correlation-based method proves to be a good alternative for the PSD method as it yields precision equal to or somewhat higher than the PSD method. The use of synthetic data also allows us to estimate the accuracy and precision of the two methods and to choose the best sampling strategy to obtain past temperatures with the required precision. In addition to application to synthetic data the two methods are tested on stable-isotope records from the EPICA (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) ice core drilled in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, showing that reliable firn temperatures can be reconstructed with a typical uncertainty of 1.5 and 2 °C for the Holocene period and 2 and 2.5 °C for the last glacial period for the correlation and PSD method, respectively.

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Navigated ultrasound (US) imaging is used for the intra-operative acquisition of 3D image data during imageguided surgery. The presented approach includes the design of a compact and easy to use US calibration device and its integration into a software application for navigated liver surgery. User interaction during the calibration process is minimized through automatic detection of the calibration process followed by automatic image segmentation, calculation of the calibration transform and validation of the obtained result. This leads to a fast, interaction-free and fully automatic calibration procedure enabling intra-operative

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Accidents can lead to difficult boundary situations. Such situations often take place in the emergency units. The medical team thus often and inevitably faces professional uncertainty in their decision-making. It is essential to communicate these uncertainties within the medical team, instead of downplaying or overriding existential hurdles in decision-making. Acknowledging uncertainties might lead to alert and prudent decisions. Thus uncertainty can have ethical value in treatment or withdrawal of treatment. It does not need to be covered in evidence-based arguments, especially as some singular situations of individual tragedies cannot be grasped in terms of evidence-based medicine.

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Afdeyu Station is one of the few river gauging stations in the highlands of Eritrea where daily measurements are taken. As a result of damages, the station was refurbished, and the cross section of the gauge was changed to have better control of minimal runoff. The gauge therefore had to be re-calibrated. This publication documents this process and also provides the new calibration curve, based on extensive field work carried out in the rainy season 2009

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To check the effectiveness of campaigns preventing drug abuse or indicating local effects of efforts against drug trafficking, it is beneficial to know consumed amounts of substances in a high spatial and temporal resolution. The analysis of drugs of abuse in wastewater (WW) has the potential to provide this information. In this study, the reliability of WW drug consumption estimates is assessed and a novel method presented to calculate the total uncertainty in observed WW cocaine (COC) and benzoylecgonine (BE) loads. Specifically, uncertainties resulting from discharge measurements, chemical analysis and the applied sampling scheme were addressed and three approaches presented. These consist of (i) a generic model-based procedure to investigate the influence of the sampling scheme on the uncertainty of observed or expected drug loads, (ii) a comparative analysis of two analytical methods (high performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry), including an extended cross-validation by influent profiling over several days, and (iii) monitoring COC and BE concentrations in WW of the largest Swiss sewage treatment plants. In addition, the COC and BE loads observed in the sewage treatment plant of the city of Berne were used to back-calculate the COC consumption. The estimated mean daily consumed amount was 107 ± 21 g of pure COC, corresponding to 321 g of street-grade COC.