Estimating and quantifying uncertainties on level sets using the Vorob'ev expectation and deviation with Gaussian process models

Several methods based on Kriging have recently been proposed for calculating a probability of failure involving costly-to-evaluate functions. A closely related problem is to estimate the set of inputs leading to a response exceeding a given threshold. Now, estimating such a level set—and not solely its volume—and quantifying uncertainties on it are not straightforward. Here we use notions from random set theory to obtain an estimate of the level set, together with a quantification of estimation uncertainty. We give explicit formulae in the Gaussian process set-up and provide a consistency result. We then illustrate how space-filling versus adaptive design strategies may sequentially reduce level set estimation uncertainty.

MaxMAC: a Maximally Traffic-Adaptive MAC Protocol for Wireless Sensor Networks

Energy efficiency is a major concern in the design of Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) and their communication protocols. As the radio transceiver typically accounts for a major portion of a WSN node’s power consumption, researchers have proposed Energy-Efficient Medium Access (E2-MAC) protocols that switch the radio transceiver off for a major part of the time. Such protocols typically trade off energy-efficiency versus classical quality of service parameters (throughput, latency, reliability). Today’s E2-MAC protocols are able to deliver little amounts of data with a low energy footprint, but introduce severe restrictions with respect to throughput and latency. Regrettably, they yet fail to adapt to varying traffic load at run-time. This paper presents MaxMAC, an E2-MAC protocol that targets at achieving maximal adaptivity with respect to throughput and latency. By adaptively tuning essential parameters at run-time, the protocol reaches the throughput and latency of energy-unconstrained CSMA in high-traffic phases, while still exhibiting a high energy-efficiency in periods of sparse traffic. The paper compares the protocol against a selection of today’s E2-MAC protocols and evaluates its advantages and drawbacks.

Influence of reported study design characteristics on intervention effect estimates from randomized, controlled trials

Published evidence suggests that aspects of trial design lead to biased intervention effect estimates, but findings from different studies are inconsistent. This study combined data from 7 meta-epidemiologic studies and removed overlaps to derive a final data set of 234 unique meta-analyses containing 1973 trials. Outcome measures were classified as "mortality," "other objective," "or subjective," and Bayesian hierarchical models were used to estimate associations of trial characteristics with average bias and between-trial heterogeneity. Intervention effect estimates seemed to be exaggerated in trials with inadequate or unclear (vs. adequate) random-sequence generation (ratio of odds ratios, 0.89 [95% credible interval {CrI}, 0.82 to 0.96]) and with inadequate or unclear (vs. adequate) allocation concealment (ratio of odds ratios, 0.93 [CrI, 0.87 to 0.99]). Lack of or unclear double-blinding (vs. double-blinding) was associated with an average of 13% exaggeration of intervention effects (ratio of odds ratios, 0.87 [CrI, 0.79 to 0.96]), and between-trial heterogeneity was increased for such studies (SD increase in heterogeneity, 0.14 [CrI, 0.02 to 0.30]). For each characteristic, average bias and increases in between-trial heterogeneity were driven primarily by trials with subjective outcomes, with little evidence of bias in trials with objective and mortality outcomes. This study is limited by incomplete trial reporting, and findings may be confounded by other study design characteristics. Bias associated with study design characteristics may lead to exaggeration of intervention effect estimates and increases in between-trial heterogeneity in trials reporting subjectively assessed outcomes.

An early warning system for hypoglycemic/hyperglycemic events based on fusion of adaptive prediction models

Early warning of future hypoglycemic and hyperglycemic events can improve the safety of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patients. The aim of this study is to design and evaluate a hypoglycemia/hyperglycemia early warning system (EWS) for T1DM patients under sensor-augmented pump (SAP) therapy.

A two-microphone noise reduction system for cochlear implant users with nearby microphones. Part I: Signal processing algorithm design and development

Users of cochlear implant systems, that is, of auditory aids which stimulate the auditory nerve at the cochlea electrically, often complain about poor speech understanding in noisy environments. Despite the proven advantages of multimicrophone directional noise reduction systems for conventional hearing aids, only one major manufacturer has so far implemented such a system in a product, presumably because of the added power consumption and size. We present a physically small (intermicrophone distance 7 mm) and computationally inexpensive adaptive noise reduction system suitable for behind-the-ear cochlear implant speech processors. Supporting algorithms, which allow the adjustment of the opening angle and the maximum noise suppression, are proposed and evaluated. A portable real-time device for test in real acoustic environments is presented.

Bayesian statistics in oncology: a guide for the clinical investigator

The rise of evidence-based medicine as well as important progress in statistical methods and computational power have led to a second birth of the >200-year-old Bayesian framework. The use of Bayesian techniques, in particular in the design and interpretation of clinical trials, offers several substantial advantages over the classical statistical approach. First, in contrast to classical statistics, Bayesian analysis allows a direct statement regarding the probability that a treatment was beneficial. Second, Bayesian statistics allow the researcher to incorporate any prior information in the analysis of the experimental results. Third, Bayesian methods can efficiently handle complex statistical models, which are suited for advanced clinical trial designs. Finally, Bayesian statistics encourage a thorough consideration and presentation of the assumptions underlying an analysis, which enables the reader to fully appraise the authors' conclusions. Both Bayesian and classical statistics have their respective strengths and limitations and should be viewed as being complementary to each other; we do not attempt to make a head-to-head comparison, as this is beyond the scope of the present review. Rather, the objective of the present article is to provide a nonmathematical, reader-friendly overview of the current practice of Bayesian statistics coupled with numerous intuitive examples from the field of oncology. It is hoped that this educational review will be a useful resource to the oncologist and result in a better understanding of the scope, strengths, and limitations of the Bayesian approach.

Evaluation of a Bayesian MCMC Random Effects Inference Methodology for Capture-Mark-Recapture Data

Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate properties of a simple Bayesian MCMC analysis of the random effects model for single group Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture data. The MCMC method is applied to the model via a logit link, so parameters p, S are on a logit scale, where logit(S) is assumed to have, and is generated from, a normal distribution with mean μ and variance σ2 . Marginal prior distributions on logit(p) and μ were independent normal with mean zero and standard deviation 1.75 for logit(p) and 100 for μ ; hence minimally informative. Marginal prior distribution on σ2 was placed on τ2=1/σ2 as a gamma distribution with α=β=0.001 . The study design has 432 points spread over 5 factors: occasions (t) , new releases per occasion (u), p, μ , and σ . At each design point 100 independent trials were completed (hence 43,200 trials in total), each with sample size n=10,000 from the parameter posterior distribution. At 128 of these design points comparisons are made to previously reported results from a method of moments procedure. We looked at properties of point and interval inference on μ , and σ based on the posterior mean, median, and mode and equal-tailed 95% credibility interval. Bayesian inference did very well for the parameter μ , but under the conditions used here, MCMC inference performance for σ was mixed: poor for sparse data (i.e., only 7 occasions) or σ=0 , but good when there were sufficient data and not small σ .

Antiplatelets versus Anticoagulants for the Treatment of Cervical Artery Dissection: Bayesian Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVE To compare the effects of antiplatelets and anticoagulants on stroke and death in patients with acute cervical artery dissection. DESIGN Systematic review with Bayesian meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES The reviewers searched MEDLINE and EMBASE from inception to November 2012, checked reference lists, and contacted authors. STUDY SELECTION Studies were eligible if they were randomised, quasi-randomised or observational comparisons of antiplatelets and anticoagulants in patients with cervical artery dissection. DATA EXTRACTION Data were extracted by one reviewer and checked by another. Bayesian techniques were used to appropriately account for studies with scarce event data and imbalances in the size of comparison groups. DATA SYNTHESIS Thirty-seven studies (1991 patients) were included. We found no randomised trial. The primary analysis revealed a large treatment effect in favour of antiplatelets for preventing the primary composite outcome of ischaemic stroke, intracranial haemorrhage or death within the first 3 months after treatment initiation (relative risk 0.32, 95% credibility interval 0.12 to 0.63), while the degree of between-study heterogeneity was moderate (τ(2) = 0.18). In an analysis restricted to studies of higher methodological quality, the possible advantage of antiplatelets over anticoagulants was less obvious than in the main analysis (relative risk 0.73, 95% credibility interval 0.17 to 2.30). CONCLUSION In view of these results and the safety advantages, easier usage and lower cost of antiplatelets, we conclude that antiplatelets should be given precedence over anticoagulants as a first line treatment in patients with cervical artery dissection unless results of an adequately powered randomised trial suggest the opposite.

Software Engineering for Self-Adaptive Systems: A Second Research Roadmap

The goal of this roadmap paper is to summarize the state-of-the-art and identify research challenges when developing, deploying and managing self-adaptive software systems. Instead of dealing with a wide range of topics associated with the field, we focus on four essential topics of self-adaptation: design space for self-adaptive solutions, software engineering processes for self-adaptive systems, from centralized to decentralized control, and practical run-time verification & validation for self-adaptive systems. For each topic, we present an overview, suggest future directions, and focus on selected challenges. This paper complements and extends a previous roadmap on software engineering for self-adaptive systems published in 2009 covering a different set of topics, and reflecting in part on the previous paper. This roadmap is one of the many results of the Dagstuhl Seminar 10431 on Software Engineering for Self-Adaptive Systems, which took place in October 2010.

A reliable, traffic-adaptive and energy-efficient link layer for wireless sensor networks

The paper presents a link layer stack for wireless sensor networks, which consists of the Burst-aware Energy-efficient Adaptive Medium access control (BEAM) and the Hop-to-Hop Reliability (H2HR) protocol. BEAM can operate with short beacons to announce data transmissions or include data within the beacons. Duty cycles can be adapted by a traffic prediction mechanism indicating pending packets destined for a node and by estimating its wake-up times. H2HR takes advantage of information provided by BEAM such as neighbour information and transmission information to perform per-hop congestion control. We justify the design decisions by measurements in a real-world wireless sensor network testbed and compare the performance with other link layer protocols.

Traffic-Adaptive and Link-Quality-Aware Communication in Wireless Sensor Networks

This paper is a summary of the main contribu- tions of the PhD thesis published in [1]. The main research contributions of the thesis are driven by the research question how to design simple, yet efficient and robust run-time adaptive resource allocation schemes within the commu- nication stack of Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) nodes. The thesis addresses several problem domains with con- tributions on different layers of the WSN communication stack. The main contributions can be summarized as follows: First, a a novel run-time adaptive MAC protocol is intro- duced, which stepwise allocates the power-hungry radio interface in an on-demand manner when the encountered traffic load requires it. Second, the thesis outlines a metho- dology for robust, reliable and accurate software-based energy-estimation, which is calculated at network run- time on the sensor node itself. Third, the thesis evaluates several Forward Error Correction (FEC) strategies to adap- tively allocate the correctional power of Error Correcting Codes (ECCs) to cope with timely and spatially variable bit error rates. Fourth, in the context of TCP-based communi- cations in WSNs, the thesis evaluates distributed caching and local retransmission strategies to overcome the perfor- mance degrading effects of packet corruption and trans- mission failures when transmitting data over multiple hops. The performance of all developed protocols are eval- uated on a self-developed real-world WSN testbed and achieve superior performance over selected existing ap- proaches, especially where traffic load and channel condi- tions are suspect to rapid variations over time.

Adaptive plasticity and genetic divergence in feeding efficiency during parallel adaptive radiation of whitefish (Coregonus spp.)

Parallel phenotypic divergence in replicated adaptive radiations could either result from parallel genetic divergence in response to similar divergent selec- tion regimes or from equivalent phenotypically plastic response to the repeated occurrence of contrasting environments. In post-glacial fish, repli- cated divergence in phenotypes along the benthic-limnetic habitat axis is commonly observed. Here, we use two benthic-limnetic species pairs of whitefish from two Swiss lakes, raised in a common garden design, with reciprocal food treatments in one species pair, to experimentally measure whether feeding efficiency on benthic prey has a genetic basis or whether it underlies phenotypic plasticity (or both). To do so, we offered experimental fish mosquito larvae, partially burried in sand, and measured multiple feed- ing efficiency variables. Our results reveal both, genetic divergence as well as phenotypically plastic divergence in feeding efficiency, with the pheno- typically benthic species raised on benthic food being the most efficient forager on benthic prey. This indicates that both, divergent natural selection on genetically heritable traits and adaptive phenotypic plasticity, are likely important mechanisms driving phenotypic divergence in adaptive radiation.

Biodiversity effects on nitrate concentrations in soil solution: a Bayesian model

Ecosystems are faced with high rates of species loss which has consequences for their functions and services. To assess the effects of plant species diversity on the nitrogen (N) cycle, we developed a model for monthly mean nitrate (NO3-N) concentrations in soil solution in 0-30 cm mineral soil depth using plant species and functional group richness and functional composition as drivers and assessing the effects of conversion of arable land to grassland, spatially heterogeneous soil properties, and climate. We used monthly mean NO3-N concentrations from 62 plots of a grassland plant diversity experiment from 2003 to 2006. Plant species richness (1-60) and functional group composition (1-4 functional groups: legumes, grasses, non-leguminous tall herbs, non-leguminous small herbs) were manipulated in a factorial design. Plant community composition, time since conversion from arable land to grassland, soil texture, and climate data (precipitation, soil moisture, air and soil temperature) were used to develop one general Bayesian multiple regression model for the 62 plots to allow an in-depth evaluation using the experimental design. The model simulated NO3-N concentrations with an overall Bayesian coefficient of determination of 0.48. The temporal course of NO3-N concentrations was simulated differently well for the individual plots with a maximum plot-specific Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.57. The model shows that NO3-N concentrations decrease with species richness, but this relation reverses if more than approx. 25 % of legume species are included in the mixture. Presence of legumes increases and presence of grasses decreases NO3-N concentrations compared to mixtures containing only small and tall herbs. Altogether, our model shows that there is a strong influence of plant community composition on NO3-N concentrations.