Quantifying and modeling financial market fluctuations

Die Entstehung eines Marktpreises für einen Vermögenswert kann als Superposition der einzelnen Aktionen der Marktteilnehmer aufgefasst werden, die damit kumulativ Angebot und Nachfrage erzeugen. Dies ist in der statistischen Physik mit der Entstehung makroskopischer Eigenschaften vergleichbar, die von mikroskopischen Wechselwirkungen zwischen den beteiligten Systemkomponenten hervorgerufen werden. Die Verteilung der Preisänderungen an Finanzmärkten unterscheidet sich deutlich von einer Gaußverteilung. Dies führt zu empirischen Besonderheiten des Preisprozesses, zu denen neben dem Skalierungsverhalten nicht-triviale Korrelationsfunktionen und zeitlich gehäufte Volatilität zählen. In der vorliegenden Arbeit liegt der Fokus auf der Analyse von Finanzmarktzeitreihen und den darin enthaltenen Korrelationen. Es wird ein neues Verfahren zur Quantifizierung von Muster-basierten komplexen Korrelationen einer Zeitreihe entwickelt. Mit dieser Methodik werden signifikante Anzeichen dafür gefunden, dass sich typische Verhaltensmuster von Finanzmarktteilnehmern auf kurzen Zeitskalen manifestieren, dass also die Reaktion auf einen gegebenen Preisverlauf nicht rein zufällig ist, sondern vielmehr ähnliche Preisverläufe auch ähnliche Reaktionen hervorrufen. Ausgehend von der Untersuchung der komplexen Korrelationen in Finanzmarktzeitreihen wird die Frage behandelt, welche Eigenschaften sich beim Wechsel von einem positiven Trend zu einem negativen Trend verändern. Eine empirische Quantifizierung mittels Reskalierung liefert das Resultat, dass unabhängig von der betrachteten Zeitskala neue Preisextrema mit einem Anstieg des Transaktionsvolumens und einer Reduktion der Zeitintervalle zwischen Transaktionen einhergehen. Diese Abhängigkeiten weisen Charakteristika auf, die man auch in anderen komplexen Systemen in der Natur und speziell in physikalischen Systemen vorfindet. Über 9 Größenordnungen in der Zeit sind diese Eigenschaften auch unabhängig vom analysierten Markt - Trends, die nur für Sekunden bestehen, zeigen die gleiche Charakteristik wie Trends auf Zeitskalen von Monaten. Dies eröffnet die Möglichkeit, mehr über Finanzmarktblasen und deren Zusammenbrüche zu lernen, da Trends auf kleinen Zeitskalen viel häufiger auftreten. Zusätzlich wird eine Monte Carlo-basierte Simulation des Finanzmarktes analysiert und erweitert, um die empirischen Eigenschaften zu reproduzieren und Einblicke in deren Ursachen zu erhalten, die zum einen in der Finanzmarktmikrostruktur und andererseits in der Risikoaversion der Handelsteilnehmer zu suchen sind. Für die rechenzeitintensiven Verfahren kann mittels Parallelisierung auf einer Graphikkartenarchitektur eine deutliche Rechenzeitreduktion erreicht werden. Um das weite Spektrum an Einsatzbereichen von Graphikkarten zu aufzuzeigen, wird auch ein Standardmodell der statistischen Physik - das Ising-Modell - auf die Graphikkarte mit signifikanten Laufzeitvorteilen portiert. Teilresultate der Arbeit sind publiziert in [PGPS07, PPS08, Pre11, PVPS09b, PVPS09a, PS09, PS10a, SBF+10, BVP10, Pre10, PS10b, PSS10, SBF+11, PB10].

Bioinspired fabrication of biosilica-based bone substitution materials

Until today, autogenic bone grafts from various donor regions represent the gold standard in the field of bone reconstruction, providing both osteoinductive and osteoconductive characteristics. However, due to low availability and a disequilibrium between supply and demand, the risk of disease transfer and morbidity, usually associated with autogeneic bone grafts, the development of biomimic materials with structural and chemical properties similar to those of natural bone have been extensively studied. So far,rnonly a few synthetic materials, so far, have met these criteria, displaying properties that allow an optimal bone reconstitution. Biosilica is formed enzymatically under physiological-relevant conditions (temperature and pH) via silicatein (silica protein), an enzyme that was isolated from siliceous sponges, cloned, and prepared in a recombinant way, retaining its catalytic activity. It is biocompatible, has some unique mechanical characteristics, and comprises significant osteoinductive activity.rnTo explore the application of biosilica in the fields of regenerative medicine,rnsilicatein was encapsulated, together with its substrate sodium metasilicate, into poly(D,L-lactide)/polyvinylpyrrolidone(PVP)-based microspheres, using w/o/wrnmethodology with solvent casting and termed Poly(D,L-lactide)-silicatein silicacontaining-microspheres [PLASSM]. Both silicatein encapsulation efficiency (40%) and catalytic activity retention upon polymer encapsulation were enhanced by addition of an essential pre-emulsifying step using PVP. Furthermore, the metabolic stability, cytoxicity as well as the kinetics of silicatein release from the PLASSM were studied under biomimetic conditions, using simulated body fluid. As a solid support for PLASSM, a polyvinylpyrrolidone/starch/Na2HPO4-based matrix (termed plastic-like filler matrix containing silicic acid [PMSA]) was developed and its chemical and physical properties determined. Moreover, due to the non-toxicity and bioinactivity of the PMSA, it is suggested that PMSA acts as osteoconductive material. Both components, PLASSM and PMSA, when added together, form arnbifunctional 2-component implant material, that is (i)non-toxic(biocompatible), (ii)moldable, (iii) self-hardening at a controlled and clinically suitable rate to allows a tight insertion into any bone defect (iv) biodegradable, (v)forms a porous material upon exposure to body biomimetic conditions, and (vi)displays both osteoinductive (silicatein)and osteoconductive (PMSA) properties.rnPreliminary in vivo experiments were carried out with rabbit femurs, by creatingrnartificial bone defects that were subsequently treated with the bifunctional 2-component implant material. After 9 weeks of implantation, both computed tomography (CT) and morphological analyses showed complete resorption of the implanted material, concurrent with complete bone regeneration. The given data can be considered as a significant contribution to the successful introduction of biosilica-based implants into the field of bone substitution surgery.

The release of zinc and lead from mine tailings

Mining and processing of metal ores are important causes of soil and groundwater contamination in many regions worldwide. Metal contaminations are a serious risk for the environment and human health. The assessment of metal contaminations in the soil is therefore an important task. A common approach to assess the environmental risk emanating from inorganic contaminations to soil and groundwater is the use of batch or column leaching tests. In this regard, the suitability of leaching tests is a controversial issue. In the first part of this work the applicability and comparability of common leaching tests in the scope of groundwater risk assessment of inorganic contamination is reviewed and critically discussed. Soil water sampling methods (the suction cup method and centrifugation) are addressed as an alternative to leaching tests. Reasons for limitations of the comparability of leaching test results are exposed and recommendations are given for the expedient application of leaching tests for groundwater risk assessment. Leaching tests are usually carried out in open contact with the atmosphere disregarding possible changes of redox conditions. This can affect the original metal speciation and distribution, particularly when anoxic samples are investigated. The influence of sample storage on leaching test results of sulfide bearing anoxic material from a former flotation dump is investigated in a long-term study. Since the oxidation of the sulfide-bearing samples leads to a significant overestimation of metal release, a feasible modification for the conduction of common leaching tests for anoxic material is proposed, where oxidation is prevented efficiently. A comparison of leaching test results to soil water analyzes have shown that the modified saturation soil extraction (SSE) is found to be the only of the tested leaching procedures, which can be recommended for the assessment of current soil water concentrations at anoxic sites if direct investigation of the soil water is impossible due to technical reasons. The vertical distribution and speciation of Zn and Pb in the flotation residues as well as metal concentrations in soil water and plants were investigated to evaluate the environmental risk arising from this site due to the release of metals. The variations in pH and inorganic C content show an acidification of the topsoil with pH values down to 5.5 in the soil and a soil water pH of 6 in 1 m depth. This is due to the oxidation of sulfides and depletion in carbonates. In the anoxic subsoil pH conditions are still neutral and soil water collected with suction cups is in equilibrium with carbonate minerals. Results from extended x-ray absorption fine-structure (EXAFS) spectroscopy confirm that Zn is mainly bound in sphalerite in the subsoil and weathering reactions lead to a redistribution of Zn in the topsoil. A loss of 35% Zn and S from the topsoil compared to the parent material with 10 g/kg Zn has been observed. 13% of total Zn in the topsoil can be regarded as mobile or easily mobilizable according to sequential chemical extractions (SCE). Zn concentrations of 10 mg/L were found in the soil water, where pH is acidic. Electron supply and the buffer capacity of the soil were identified as main factors controlling Zn mobility and release to the groundwater. Variable Pb concentrations up to 30 µg/L were observed in the soil water. In contrast to Zn, Pb is enriched in the mobile fraction of the oxidized topsoil by a factor of 2 compared to the subsoil with 2 g/kg Pb. 80% of the cation exchange capacity in the topsoil is occupied by Pb. Therefore, plant uptake and bioavailability are of major concern. If the site is not prevented from proceeding acidification in the future, a significant release of Zn, S, and Pb to the groundwater has to be expected. Results from this study show that the assessment of metal release especially from sulfide bearing anoxic material requires an extensive comprehension of leaching mechanisms on the one hand and on weathering processes, which influence the speciation and the mobility of metals, on the other hand. Processes, which may change redox and pH conditions in the future, have to be addressed to enable sound decisions for soil and groundwater protection and remediation.

Sustainable improvement of water networks : to achieve best decisions for rehabilitation plans using advanced GIS and statistical techniques

Many of developing countries are facing crisis in water management due to increasing of population, water scarcity, water contaminations and effects of world economic crisis. Water distribution systems in developing countries are facing many challenges of efficient repair and rehabilitation since the information of water network is very limited, which makes the rehabilitation assessment plans very difficult. Sufficient information with high technology in developed countries makes the assessment for rehabilitation easy. Developing countries have many difficulties to assess the water network causing system failure, deterioration of mains and bad water quality in the network due to pipe corrosion and deterioration. The limited information brought into focus the urgent need to develop economical assessment for rehabilitation of water distribution systems adapted to water utilities. Gaza Strip is subject to a first case study, suffering from severe shortage in the water supply and environmental problems and contamination of underground water resources. This research focuses on improvement of water supply network to reduce the water losses in water network based on limited database using techniques of ArcGIS and commercial water network software (WaterCAD). A new approach for rehabilitation water pipes has been presented in Gaza city case study. Integrated rehabilitation assessment model has been developed for rehabilitation water pipes including three components; hydraulic assessment model, Physical assessment model and Structural assessment model. WaterCAD model has been developed with integrated in ArcGIS to produce the hydraulic assessment model for water network. The model have been designed based on pipe condition assessment with 100 score points as a maximum points for pipe condition. As results from this model, we can indicate that 40% of water pipeline have score points less than 50 points and about 10% of total pipes length have less than 30 score points. By using this model, the rehabilitation plans for each region in Gaza city can be achieved based on available budget and condition of pipes. The second case study is Kuala Lumpur Case from semi-developed countries, which has been used to develop an approach to improve the water network under crucial conditions using, advanced statistical and GIS techniques. Kuala Lumpur (KL) has water losses about 40% and high failure rate, which make severe problem. This case can represent cases in South Asia countries. Kuala Lumpur faced big challenges to reduce the water losses in water network during last 5 years. One of these challenges is high deterioration of asbestos cement (AC) pipes. They need to replace more than 6500 km of AC pipes, which need a huge budget to be achieved. Asbestos cement is subject to deterioration due to various chemical processes that either leach out the cement material or penetrate the concrete to form products that weaken the cement matrix. This case presents an approach for geo-statistical model for modelling pipe failures in a water distribution network. Database of Syabas Company (Kuala Lumpur water company) has been used in developing the model. The statistical models have been calibrated, verified and used to predict failures for both networks and individual pipes. The mathematical formulation developed for failure frequency in Kuala Lumpur was based on different pipeline characteristics, reflecting several factors such as pipe diameter, length, pressure and failure history. Generalized linear model have been applied to predict pipe failures based on District Meter Zone (DMZ) and individual pipe levels. Based on Kuala Lumpur case study, several outputs and implications have been achieved. Correlations between spatial and temporal intervals of pipe failures also have been done using ArcGIS software. Water Pipe Assessment Model (WPAM) has been developed using the analysis of historical pipe failure in Kuala Lumpur which prioritizing the pipe rehabilitation candidates based on ranking system. Frankfurt Water Network in Germany is the third main case study. This case makes an overview for Survival analysis and neural network methods used in water network. Rehabilitation strategies of water pipes have been developed for Frankfurt water network in cooperation with Mainova (Frankfurt Water Company). This thesis also presents a methodology of technical condition assessment of plastic pipes based on simple analysis. This thesis aims to make contribution to improve the prediction of pipe failures in water networks using Geographic Information System (GIS) and Decision Support System (DSS). The output from the technical condition assessment model can be used to estimate future budget needs for rehabilitation and to define pipes with high priority for replacement based on poor condition. rn