Molecular phylogeography of the Woodland Ringlet (Erebia medusa [Denis and Schiffermüller] 1775) in Europe

Phylogeography is a recent field of biological research that links phylogenetics to biogeography through deciphering the imprint that evolutionary history has left on the genetic structure of extant populations. During the cold phases of the successive ice ages, which drastically shaped species’ distributions since the Pliocene, populations of numerous species were isolated in refugia where many of them evolved into different genetic lineages. My dissertation deals with the phylogeography of the Woodland Ringlet (Erebia medusa [Denis and Schiffermüller] 1775) in Central and Eastern Europe. This Palaearctic butterfly species is currently distributed from central France and south eastern Belgium over large parts of Central Europe and southern Siberia to the Pacific. It is absent from those parts of Europe with mediterranean, oceanic and boreal climates. It was supposed to be a Siberian faunal element with a rather homogeneous population structure in Central Europe due to its postglacial expansion out of a single eastern refugium. An already existing evolutionary scenario for the Woodland Ringlet in Central and Eastern Europe is based on nuclear data (allozymes). To know if this is corroborated by organelle evolutionary history, I sequenced two mitochondrial markers (part of the cytochrome oxydase subunit one and the control region) for populations sampled over the same area. Phylogeography largely relies on the construction of networks of uniparentally inherited haplotypes that are compared to geographic haplotype distribution thanks to recent developed methods such as nested clade phylogeographic analysis (NCPA). Several ring-shaped ambiguities (loops) emerged from both haplotype networks in E. medusa. They can be attributed to recombination and homoplasy. Such loops usually avert the straightforward extraction of the phylogeographic signal contained in a gene tree. I developed several new approaches to extract phylogeographic information in the presence of loops, considering either homoplasy or recombination. This allowed me to deduce a consistent evolutionary history for the species from the mitochondrial data and also adds plausibility for the occurrence of recombination in E. medusa mitochondria. Despite the fact that the control region is assumed to have a lack of resolving power in other species, I found a considerable genetic variation of this marker in E. medusa which makes it a useful tool for phylogeographic studies. In combination with the allozyme data, the mitochondrial genome supports the following phylogeographic scenario for E. medusa in Europe: (i) a first vicariance, due to the onset of the Würm glaciation, led to the formation of several major lineages, and is mirrored in the NCPA by restricted gene flow, (ii) later on further vicariances led to the formation of two sub-lineages in the Western lineage and two sub-lineages in the Eastern lineage during the Last Glacial Maximum or Older Dryas; additionally the NCPA supports a restriction of gene flow with isolation by distance, (iii) finally, vicariance resulted in two secondary sub-lineages in the area of Germany and, maybe, to two other secondary sub-lineages in the Czech Republic. The last postglacial warming was accompanied by strong range expansions in most of the genetic lineages. The scenario expected for a presumably Siberian faunal element such as E. medusa is a continuous loss of genetic diversity during postglacial westward expansion. Hence, the pattern found in this thesis contradicts a typical Siberian origin of E. medusa. In contrast, it corroboratess the importance of multiple extra-Mediterranean refugia for European fauna as it was recently assumed for other continental species.

Parameterschätzung in zeitdiskreten ergodischen Markov-Prozessen am Beispiel des Cox-Ingersoll-Ross-Modells

In dieser Arbeit geht es um die Schätzung von Parametern in zeitdiskreten ergodischen Markov-Prozessen im allgemeinen und im CIR-Modell im besonderen. Beim CIR-Modell handelt es sich um eine stochastische Differentialgleichung, die von Cox, Ingersoll und Ross (1985) zur Beschreibung der Dynamik von Zinsraten vorgeschlagen wurde. Problemstellung ist die Schätzung der Parameter des Drift- und des Diffusionskoeffizienten aufgrund von äquidistanten diskreten Beobachtungen des CIR-Prozesses. Nach einer kurzen Einführung in das CIR-Modell verwenden wir die insbesondere von Bibby und Sørensen untersuchte Methode der Martingal-Schätzfunktionen und -Schätzgleichungen, um das Problem der Parameterschätzung in ergodischen Markov-Prozessen zunächst ganz allgemein zu untersuchen. Im Anschluss an Untersuchungen von Sørensen (1999) werden hinreichende Bedingungen (im Sinne von Regularitätsvoraussetzungen an die Schätzfunktion) für die Existenz, starke Konsistenz und asymptotische Normalität von Lösungen einer Martingal-Schätzgleichung angegeben. Angewandt auf den Spezialfall der Likelihood-Schätzung stellen diese Bedingungen zugleich lokal-asymptotische Normalität des Modells sicher. Ferner wird ein einfaches Kriterium für Godambe-Heyde-Optimalität von Schätzfunktionen angegeben und skizziert, wie dies in wichtigen Spezialfällen zur expliziten Konstruktion optimaler Schätzfunktionen verwendet werden kann. Die allgemeinen Resultate werden anschließend auf das diskretisierte CIR-Modell angewendet. Wir analysieren einige von Overbeck und Rydén (1997) vorgeschlagene Schätzer für den Drift- und den Diffusionskoeffizienten, welche als Lösungen quadratischer Martingal-Schätzfunktionen definiert sind, und berechnen das optimale Element in dieser Klasse. Abschließend verallgemeinern wir Ergebnisse von Overbeck und Rydén (1997), indem wir die Existenz einer stark konsistenten und asymptotisch normalen Lösung der Likelihood-Gleichung zeigen und lokal-asymptotische Normalität für das CIR-Modell ohne Einschränkungen an den Parameterraum beweisen.