Partial reconstruction of the trajectories of a discretely observed branching diffusion with immigration and an application to inference

In this treatise we consider finite systems of branching particles where the particles move independently of each other according to d-dimensional diffusions. Particles are killed at a position dependent rate, leaving at their death position a random number of descendants according to a position dependent reproduction law. In addition particles immigrate at constant rate (one immigrant per immigration time). A process with above properties is called a branching diffusion withimmigration (BDI). In the first part we present the model in detail and discuss the properties of the BDI under our basic assumptions. In the second part we consider the problem of reconstruction of the trajectory of a BDI from discrete observations. We observe positions of the particles at discrete times; in particular we assume that we have no information about the pedigree of the particles. A natural question arises if we want to apply statistical procedures on the discrete observations: How can we find couples of particle positions which belong to the same particle? We give an easy to implement 'reconstruction scheme' which allows us to redraw or 'reconstruct' parts of the trajectory of the BDI with high accuracy. Moreover asymptotically the whole path can be reconstructed. Further we present simulations which show that our partial reconstruction rule is tractable in practice. In the third part we study how the partial reconstruction rule fits into statistical applications. As an extensive example we present a nonparametric estimator for the diffusion coefficient of a BDI where the particles move according to one-dimensional diffusions. This estimator is based on the Nadaraya-Watson estimator for the diffusion coefficient of one-dimensional diffusions and it uses the partial reconstruction rule developed in the second part above. We are able to prove a rate of convergence of this estimator and finally we present simulations which show that the estimator works well even if we leave our set of assumptions.

Parameterschätzung in Verzweigungsprozessen mit Immigration

Im Verzweigungsprozess mit Immigration werden Schätzer für die erwartete Nachkommenzahl m eines Individuums und die erwartete Immigration λ pro Generation konstruiert. Sie sind nur aufgrund der beobachteten Populationsgröße einer jeden Generation konsistent, ohne Vorkenntnis darüber, ob der Prozess subkritisch (m<1), kritisch (m=1) oder superkritisch (m>1) ist. Im superkritischen Fall ist der Schätzer für λ jedoch nicht konsistent. Dies ist aber keine Einschränkung, denn es wird gezeigt, dass in diesem Fall kein konsistenter Schätzer für λ existiert. Des Weiteren werden Konvergenzgeschwindigkeit der Schätzer und asymptotische Verteilungen der Schätzfehler untersucht. Dabei werden die Fälle (m<1), (m>1) und (m=1) unterschieden, was gänzlich verschiedene Vorgehensweisen erfordert (Ergodizität, Martingalmethoden, Diffusionsapproximationen). Diese hier vorliegende Diplomarbeit orientiert sich an den Ideen und Ergebnissen von Wei und Winnicki (1989/90).