4 resultados para Markov Model Estimation

em ArchiMeD - Elektronische Publikationen der Universität Mainz - Alemanha


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Wir betrachten einen zeitlich inhomogenen Diffusionsprozess, der durch eine stochastische Differentialgleichung gegeben wird, deren Driftterm ein deterministisches T-periodisches Signal beinhaltet, dessen Periodizität bekannt ist. Dieses Signal sei in einem Besovraum enthalten. Wir schätzen es mit Hilfe eines nichtparametrischen Waveletschätzers. Unser Schätzer ist von einem Wavelet-Dichteschätzer mit Thresholding inspiriert, der 1996 in einem klassischen iid-Modell von Donoho, Johnstone, Kerkyacharian und Picard konstruiert wurde. Unter gewissen Ergodizitätsvoraussetzungen an den Prozess können wir nichtparametrische Konvergenzraten angegeben, die bis auf einen logarithmischen Term den Raten im klassischen iid-Fall entsprechen. Diese Raten werden mit Hilfe von Orakel-Ungleichungen gezeigt, die auf Ergebnissen über Markovketten in diskreter Zeit von Clémencon, 2001, beruhen. Außerdem betrachten wir einen technisch einfacheren Spezialfall und zeigen einige Computersimulationen dieses Schätzers.

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In dieser Arbeit geht es um die Schätzung von Parametern in zeitdiskreten ergodischen Markov-Prozessen im allgemeinen und im CIR-Modell im besonderen. Beim CIR-Modell handelt es sich um eine stochastische Differentialgleichung, die von Cox, Ingersoll und Ross (1985) zur Beschreibung der Dynamik von Zinsraten vorgeschlagen wurde. Problemstellung ist die Schätzung der Parameter des Drift- und des Diffusionskoeffizienten aufgrund von äquidistanten diskreten Beobachtungen des CIR-Prozesses. Nach einer kurzen Einführung in das CIR-Modell verwenden wir die insbesondere von Bibby und Sørensen untersuchte Methode der Martingal-Schätzfunktionen und -Schätzgleichungen, um das Problem der Parameterschätzung in ergodischen Markov-Prozessen zunächst ganz allgemein zu untersuchen. Im Anschluss an Untersuchungen von Sørensen (1999) werden hinreichende Bedingungen (im Sinne von Regularitätsvoraussetzungen an die Schätzfunktion) für die Existenz, starke Konsistenz und asymptotische Normalität von Lösungen einer Martingal-Schätzgleichung angegeben. Angewandt auf den Spezialfall der Likelihood-Schätzung stellen diese Bedingungen zugleich lokal-asymptotische Normalität des Modells sicher. Ferner wird ein einfaches Kriterium für Godambe-Heyde-Optimalität von Schätzfunktionen angegeben und skizziert, wie dies in wichtigen Spezialfällen zur expliziten Konstruktion optimaler Schätzfunktionen verwendet werden kann. Die allgemeinen Resultate werden anschließend auf das diskretisierte CIR-Modell angewendet. Wir analysieren einige von Overbeck und Rydén (1997) vorgeschlagene Schätzer für den Drift- und den Diffusionskoeffizienten, welche als Lösungen quadratischer Martingal-Schätzfunktionen definiert sind, und berechnen das optimale Element in dieser Klasse. Abschließend verallgemeinern wir Ergebnisse von Overbeck und Rydén (1997), indem wir die Existenz einer stark konsistenten und asymptotisch normalen Lösung der Likelihood-Gleichung zeigen und lokal-asymptotische Normalität für das CIR-Modell ohne Einschränkungen an den Parameterraum beweisen.

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In this thesis we consider systems of finitely many particles moving on paths given by a strong Markov process and undergoing branching and reproduction at random times. The branching rate of a particle, its number of offspring and their spatial distribution are allowed to depend on the particle's position and possibly on the configuration of coexisting particles. In addition there is immigration of new particles, with the rate of immigration and the distribution of immigrants possibly depending on the configuration of pre-existing particles as well. In the first two chapters of this work, we concentrate on the case that the joint motion of particles is governed by a diffusion with interacting components. The resulting process of particle configurations was studied by E. Löcherbach (2002, 2004) and is known as a branching diffusion with immigration (BDI). Chapter 1 contains a detailed introduction of the basic model assumptions, in particular an assumption of ergodicity which guarantees that the BDI process is positive Harris recurrent with finite invariant measure on the configuration space. This object and a closely related quantity, namely the invariant occupation measure on the single-particle space, are investigated in Chapter 2 where we study the problem of the existence of Lebesgue-densities with nice regularity properties. For example, it turns out that the existence of a continuous density for the invariant measure depends on the mechanism by which newborn particles are distributed in space, namely whether branching particles reproduce at their death position or their offspring are distributed according to an absolutely continuous transition kernel. In Chapter 3, we assume that the quantities defining the model depend only on the spatial position but not on the configuration of coexisting particles. In this framework (which was considered by Höpfner and Löcherbach (2005) in the special case that branching particles reproduce at their death position), the particle motions are independent, and we can allow for more general Markov processes instead of diffusions. The resulting configuration process is a branching Markov process in the sense introduced by Ikeda, Nagasawa and Watanabe (1968), complemented by an immigration mechanism. Generalizing results obtained by Höpfner and Löcherbach (2005), we give sufficient conditions for ergodicity in the sense of positive recurrence of the configuration process and finiteness of the invariant occupation measure in the case of general particle motions and offspring distributions.

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This thesis focuses on the design and characterization of a novel, artificial minimal model membrane system with chosen physical parameters to mimic a nanoparticle uptake process driven exclusively by adhesion and softness of the bilayer. The realization is based on polymersomes composed of poly(dimethylsiloxane)-b-poly(2-methyloxazoline) (PMDS-b-PMOXA) and nanoscopic colloidal particles (polystyrene, silica), and the utilization of powerful characterization techniques. rnPDMS-b-PMOXA polymersomes with a radius, Rh ~100 nm, a size polydispersity, PD = 1.1 and a membrane thickness, h = 16 nm, were prepared using the film rehydratation method. Due to the suitable mechanical properties (Young’s modulus of ~17 MPa and a bending modulus of ~7⋅10-8 J) along with the long-term stability and the modifiability, these kind of polymersomes can be used as model membranes to study physical and physicochemical aspects of transmembrane transport of nanoparticles. A combination of photon (PCS) and fluorescence (FCS) correlation spectroscopies optimizes species selectivity, necessary for a unique internalization study encompassing two main efforts. rnFor the proof of concepts, the first effort focused on the interaction of nanoparticles (Rh NP SiO2 = 14 nm, Rh NP PS = 16 nm; cNP = 0.1 gL-1) and polymersomes (Rh P = 112 nm; cP = 0.045 gL-1) with fixed size and concentration. Identification of a modified form factor of the polymersome entities, selectively seen in the PCS experiment, enabled a precise monitor and quantitative description of the incorporation process. Combining PCS and FCS led to the estimation of the incorporated particles per polymersome (about 8 in the examined system) and the development of an appropriate methodology for the kinetics and dynamics of the internalization process. rnThe second effort aimed at the establishment of the necessary phenomenology to facilitate comparison with theories. The size and concentration of the nanoparticles were chosen as the most important system variables (Rh NP = 14 - 57 nm; cNP = 0.05 - 0.2 gL-1). It was revealed that the incorporation process could be controlled to a significant extent by changing the nanoparticles size and concentration. Average number of 7 up to 11 NPs with Rh NP = 14 nm and 3 up to 6 NPs with Rh NP = 25 nm can be internalized into the present polymersomes by changing initial nanoparticles concentration in the range 0.1- 0.2 gL-1. Rapid internalization of the particles by polymersomes is observed only above a critical threshold particles concentration, dependent on the nanoparticle size. rnWith regard possible pathways for the particle uptake, cryogenic transmission electron microscopy (cryo-TEM) has revealed two different incorporation mechanisms depending on the size of the involved nanoparticles: cooperative incorporation of nanoparticles groups or single nanoparticles incorporation. Conditions for nanoparticle uptake and controlled filling of polymersomes were presented. rnIn the framework of this thesis, the experimental observation of transmembrane transport of spherical PS and SiO2 NPs into polymersomes via an internalization process was reported and examined quantitatively for the first time. rnIn a summary the work performed in frames of this thesis might have significant impact on cell model systems’ development and thus improved understanding of transmembrane transport processes. The present experimental findings help create the missing phenomenology necessary for a detailed understanding of a phenomenon with great relevance in transmembrane transport. The fact that transmembrane transport of nanoparticles can be performed by artificial model system without any additional stimuli has a fundamental impact on the understanding, not only of the nanoparticle invagination process but also of the interaction of nanoparticles with biological as well as polymeric membranes. rn