Sustainable improvement of water networks : to achieve best decisions for rehabilitation plans using advanced GIS and statistical techniques

Many of developing countries are facing crisis in water management due to increasing of population, water scarcity, water contaminations and effects of world economic crisis. Water distribution systems in developing countries are facing many challenges of efficient repair and rehabilitation since the information of water network is very limited, which makes the rehabilitation assessment plans very difficult. Sufficient information with high technology in developed countries makes the assessment for rehabilitation easy. Developing countries have many difficulties to assess the water network causing system failure, deterioration of mains and bad water quality in the network due to pipe corrosion and deterioration. The limited information brought into focus the urgent need to develop economical assessment for rehabilitation of water distribution systems adapted to water utilities. Gaza Strip is subject to a first case study, suffering from severe shortage in the water supply and environmental problems and contamination of underground water resources. This research focuses on improvement of water supply network to reduce the water losses in water network based on limited database using techniques of ArcGIS and commercial water network software (WaterCAD). A new approach for rehabilitation water pipes has been presented in Gaza city case study. Integrated rehabilitation assessment model has been developed for rehabilitation water pipes including three components; hydraulic assessment model, Physical assessment model and Structural assessment model. WaterCAD model has been developed with integrated in ArcGIS to produce the hydraulic assessment model for water network. The model have been designed based on pipe condition assessment with 100 score points as a maximum points for pipe condition. As results from this model, we can indicate that 40% of water pipeline have score points less than 50 points and about 10% of total pipes length have less than 30 score points. By using this model, the rehabilitation plans for each region in Gaza city can be achieved based on available budget and condition of pipes. The second case study is Kuala Lumpur Case from semi-developed countries, which has been used to develop an approach to improve the water network under crucial conditions using, advanced statistical and GIS techniques. Kuala Lumpur (KL) has water losses about 40% and high failure rate, which make severe problem. This case can represent cases in South Asia countries. Kuala Lumpur faced big challenges to reduce the water losses in water network during last 5 years. One of these challenges is high deterioration of asbestos cement (AC) pipes. They need to replace more than 6500 km of AC pipes, which need a huge budget to be achieved. Asbestos cement is subject to deterioration due to various chemical processes that either leach out the cement material or penetrate the concrete to form products that weaken the cement matrix. This case presents an approach for geo-statistical model for modelling pipe failures in a water distribution network. Database of Syabas Company (Kuala Lumpur water company) has been used in developing the model. The statistical models have been calibrated, verified and used to predict failures for both networks and individual pipes. The mathematical formulation developed for failure frequency in Kuala Lumpur was based on different pipeline characteristics, reflecting several factors such as pipe diameter, length, pressure and failure history. Generalized linear model have been applied to predict pipe failures based on District Meter Zone (DMZ) and individual pipe levels. Based on Kuala Lumpur case study, several outputs and implications have been achieved. Correlations between spatial and temporal intervals of pipe failures also have been done using ArcGIS software. Water Pipe Assessment Model (WPAM) has been developed using the analysis of historical pipe failure in Kuala Lumpur which prioritizing the pipe rehabilitation candidates based on ranking system. Frankfurt Water Network in Germany is the third main case study. This case makes an overview for Survival analysis and neural network methods used in water network. Rehabilitation strategies of water pipes have been developed for Frankfurt water network in cooperation with Mainova (Frankfurt Water Company). This thesis also presents a methodology of technical condition assessment of plastic pipes based on simple analysis. This thesis aims to make contribution to improve the prediction of pipe failures in water networks using Geographic Information System (GIS) and Decision Support System (DSS). The output from the technical condition assessment model can be used to estimate future budget needs for rehabilitation and to define pipes with high priority for replacement based on poor condition. rn

Exploring physical processes related to past climate proxies: lake sediments and stable water isotopes

Proxy data are essential for the investigation of climate variability on time scales larger than the historical meteorological observation period. The potential value of a proxy depends on our ability to understand and quantify the physical processes that relate the corresponding climate parameter and the signal in the proxy archive. These processes can be explored under present-day conditions. In this thesis, both statistical and physical models are applied for their analysis, focusing on two specific types of proxies, lake sediment data and stable water isotopes.rnIn the first part of this work, the basis is established for statistically calibrating new proxies from lake sediments in western Germany. A comprehensive meteorological and hydrological data set is compiled and statistically analyzed. In this way, meteorological times series are identified that can be applied for the calibration of various climate proxies. A particular focus is laid on the investigation of extreme weather events, which have rarely been the objective of paleoclimate reconstructions so far. Subsequently, a concrete example of a proxy calibration is presented. Maxima in the quartz grain concentration from a lake sediment core are compared to recent windstorms. The latter are identified from the meteorological data with the help of a newly developed windstorm index, combining local measurements and reanalysis data. The statistical significance of the correlation between extreme windstorms and signals in the sediment is verified with the help of a Monte Carlo method. This correlation is fundamental for employing lake sediment data as a new proxy to reconstruct windstorm records of the geological past.rnThe second part of this thesis deals with the analysis and simulation of stable water isotopes in atmospheric vapor on daily time scales. In this way, a better understanding of the physical processes determining these isotope ratios can be obtained, which is an important prerequisite for the interpretation of isotope data from ice cores and the reconstruction of past temperature. In particular, the focus here is on the deuterium excess and its relation to the environmental conditions during evaporation of water from the ocean. As a basis for the diagnostic analysis and for evaluating the simulations, isotope measurements from Rehovot (Israel) are used, provided by the Weizmann Institute of Science. First, a Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic is employed in order to establish quantitative linkages between the measurements and the evaporation conditions of the vapor (and thus to calibrate the isotope signal). A strong negative correlation between relative humidity in the source regions and measured deuterium excess is found. On the contrary, sea surface temperature in the evaporation regions does not correlate well with deuterium excess. Although requiring confirmation by isotope data from different regions and longer time scales, this weak correlation might be of major importance for the reconstruction of moisture source temperatures from ice core data. Second, the Lagrangian source diagnostic is combined with a Craig-Gordon fractionation parameterization for the identified evaporation events in order to simulate the isotope ratios at Rehovot. In this way, the Craig-Gordon model can be directly evaluated with atmospheric isotope data, and better constraints for uncertain model parameters can be obtained. A comparison of the simulated deuterium excess with the measurements reveals that a much better agreement can be achieved using a wind speed independent formulation of the non-equilibrium fractionation factor instead of the classical parameterization introduced by Merlivat and Jouzel, which is widely applied in isotope GCMs. Finally, the first steps of the implementation of water isotope physics in the limited-area COSMO model are described, and an approach is outlined that allows to compare simulated isotope ratios to measurements in an event-based manner by using a water tagging technique. The good agreement between model results from several case studies and measurements at Rehovot demonstrates the applicability of the approach. Because the model can be run with high, potentially cloud-resolving spatial resolution, and because it contains sophisticated parameterizations of many atmospheric processes, a complete implementation of isotope physics will allow detailed, process-oriented studies of the complex variability of stable isotopes in atmospheric waters in future research.rn