Thermal structure and dynamical modeling of a Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone

In the present work, a detailed analysis of a Mediterranean TLC occurred in January 2014 has been conducted. The author is not aware of other studies regarding this particular event at the publication of this thesis. In order to outline the cyclone evolution, observational data, including weather-stations data, satellite data, radar data and photographic evidence, were collected at first. After having identified the cyclone path and its general features, the GLOBO, BOLAM and MOLOCH NWP models, developed at ISAC-CNR (Bologna), were used to simulate the phenomenon. Particular attention was paid on the Mediterranean phase as well as on the Atlantic phase, since the cyclone showed a well defined precursor up to 3 days before the minimum formation in the Alboran Sea. The Mediterranean phase has been studied using different combinations of GLOBO, BOLAM and MOLOCH models, so as to evaluate the best model chain to simulate this kind of phenomena. The BOLAM and MOLOCH models showed the best performance, by adjusting the path erroneously deviated in the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and ECMWF operational models. The analysis of the cyclone thermal phase shown the presence of a deep-warm core structure in many cases, thus confirming the tropical-like nature of the system. Furthermore, the results showed high sensitivity to initial conditions in the whole lifetime of the cyclone, while the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) modification leads only to small changes in the Adriatic phase. The Atlantic phase has been studied using GLOBO and BOLAM model and with the aid of the same methodology already developed. After tracing the precursor, in the form of a low-pressure system, from the American East Coast to Spain, the thermal phase analysis was conducted. The parameters obtained showed evidence of a deep-cold core asymmetric structure during the whole Atlantic phase, while the first contact with the Mediterranean Sea caused a sudden transition to a shallow-warm core structure. The examination of Potential Vorticity (PV) 3-dimensional structure revealed the presence of a PV streamer that individually formed over Greenland and eventually interacted with the low-pressure system over the Spanish coast, favouring the first phase of the cyclone baroclinic intensification. Finally, the development of an automated system that tracks and studies the thermal phase of Mediterranean cyclones has been encouraged. This could lead to the forecast of potential tropical transition, against with a minimum computational investment.

The use of remote sensing imagery for monitoring recovery in the aftermath of a natural disaster: the Hurricane Katrina Case

Although Recovery is often defined as the less studied and documented phase of the Emergency Management Cycle, a wide literature is available for describing characteristics and sub-phases of this process. Previous works do not allow to gain an overall perspective because of a lack of systematic consistent monitoring of recovery utilizing advanced technologies such as remote sensing and GIS technologies. Taking into consideration the key role of Remote Sensing in Response and Damage Assessment, this thesis is aimed to verify the appropriateness of such advanced monitoring techniques to detect recovery advancements over time, with close attention to the main characteristics of the study event: Hurricane Katrina storm surge. Based on multi-source, multi-sensor and multi-temporal data, the post-Katrina recovery was analysed using both a qualitative and a quantitative approach. The first phase was dedicated to the investigation of the relation between urban types, damage and recovery state, referring to geographical and technological parameters. Damage and recovery scales were proposed to review critical observations on remarkable surge- induced effects on various typologies of structures, analyzed at a per-building level. This wide-ranging investigation allowed a new understanding of the distinctive features of the recovery process. A quantitative analysis was employed to develop methodological procedures suited to recognize and monitor distribution, timing and characteristics of recovery activities in the study area. Promising results, gained by applying supervised classification algorithms to detect localization and distribution of blue tarp, have proved that this methodology may help the analyst in the detection and monitoring of recovery activities in areas that have been affected by medium damage. The study found that Mahalanobis Distance was the classifier which provided the most accurate results, in localising blue roofs with 93.7% of blue roof classified correctly and a producer accuracy of 70%. It was seen to be the classifier least sensitive to spectral signature alteration. The application of the dissimilarity textural classification to satellite imagery has demonstrated the suitability of this technique for the detection of debris distribution and for the monitoring of demolition and reconstruction activities in the study area. Linking these geographically extensive techniques with expert per-building interpretation of advanced-technology ground surveys provides a multi-faceted view of the physical recovery process. Remote sensing and GIS technologies combined to advanced ground survey approach provides extremely valuable capability in Recovery activities monitoring and may constitute a technical basis to lead aid organization and local government in the Recovery management.