A Phase Space Box-counting based Method for Arrhythmia Prediction from Electrocardiogram Time Series

Arrhythmia is one kind of cardiovascular diseases that give rise to the number of deaths and potentially yields immedicable danger. Arrhythmia is a life threatening condition originating from disorganized propagation of electrical signals in heart resulting in desynchronization among different chambers of the heart. Fundamentally, the synchronization process means that the phase relationship of electrical activities between the chambers remains coherent, maintaining a constant phase difference over time. If desynchronization occurs due to arrhythmia, the coherent phase relationship breaks down resulting in chaotic rhythm affecting the regular pumping mechanism of heart. This phenomenon was explored by using the phase space reconstruction technique which is a standard analysis technique of time series data generated from nonlinear dynamical system. In this project a novel index is presented for predicting the onset of ventricular arrhythmias. Analysis of continuously captured long-term ECG data recordings was conducted up to the onset of arrhythmia by the phase space reconstruction method, obtaining 2-dimensional images, analysed by the box counting method. The method was tested using the ECG data set of three different kinds including normal (NR), Ventricular Tachycardia (VT), Ventricular Fibrillation (VF), extracted from the Physionet ECG database. Statistical measures like mean (μ), standard deviation (σ) and coefficient of variation (σ/μ) for the box-counting in phase space diagrams are derived for a sliding window of 10 beats of ECG signal. From the results of these statistical analyses, a threshold was derived as an upper bound of Coefficient of Variation (CV) for box-counting of ECG phase portraits which is capable of reliably predicting the impeding arrhythmia long before its actual occurrence. As future work of research, it was planned to validate this prediction tool over a wider population of patients affected by different kind of arrhythmia, like atrial fibrillation, bundle and brunch block, and set different thresholds for them, in order to confirm its clinical applicability.

Seasonality and diel variation in blue whale D calls recorded in the Southern California Bight

Passive acoustic data have been collected using HARPs (High-frequency Acoustic Recording Packages) and were used to assess (1) the seasonality of blue whale D calls in the Southern California Bight, (2) their interannual abundance during 2007-2012 and (3) their diel variation. This goal has been achieved running the GPL (Generalized Power-Law) automated detector. (1) Blue whale D calls were detected in the Southern California Bight from May through November with a peak in July, even though few detections were from December to April as well. A key predictor for blue whale distribution and movement in the California Current region has been identified with zooplankton aggregations, paying a particular attention to those euphausiid species, such as E. pacifica and T. spinifera, which are blue whale favorite krill. The Southern California Bight experiences seasonal upwelling, resulting in an increase of productivity and prey availability. The summer and early fall have been marked as the most favorable periods. This supports the presence of blue whales in the area at that time, supposing these marine mammals exploit the region as a feeding ground. (2) As to the interannual abundance during 2007-2012, I found a large variability. I observed a great increase of vocalizations in 2007 and 2010, whereas a decrease was shown in the other years, which is well marked in 2009. It is my belief that these fluctuations in abundance of D calls detections through the deployed period are due to the alternation of El Nino and La Nina events, which occurred in those years. (3) The assessment of the daily timing of D calls production shows that D calls are more abundant during the day than during the night with a peak at 12:00 and 13:00. Assuming that D calling is associated with feeding, the daily pattern of D calls may be linked to the prey availability. E. pacifica and T. spinifera are among those species of krill which undertake daily vertical migrations, remaining at depth during the day and slowly coming up towards the surface at night. Because of some anatomical arrangements, these euphausiids are very sensitive to the light. Given that we believe D calls have a social function, I hypothesize that blue whales may recognize the hours at the highest solar incidence as the best moment of the day in terms of prey availability, exploiting this time window to advert their conspecifics.