Probabilistic Envelope Curves for Extreme Rainfall Events - Curve Inviluppo Probabilistiche per Precipitazioni Estreme

A regional envelope curve (REC) of flood flows summarises the current bound on our experience of extreme floods in a region. RECs are available for most regions of the world. Recent scientific papers introduced a probabilistic interpretation of these curves and formulated an empirical estimator of the recurrence interval T associated with a REC, which, in principle, enables us to use RECs for design purposes in ungauged basins. The main aim of this work is twofold. First, it extends the REC concept to extreme rainstorm events by introducing the Depth-Duration Envelope Curves (DDEC), which are defined as the regional upper bound on all the record rainfall depths at present for various rainfall duration. Second, it adapts the probabilistic interpretation proposed for RECs to DDECs and it assesses the suitability of these curves for estimating the T-year rainfall event associated with a given duration and large T values. Probabilistic DDECs are complementary to regional frequency analysis of rainstorms and their utilization in combination with a suitable rainfall-runoff model can provide useful indications on the magnitude of extreme floods for gauged and ungauged basins. The study focuses on two different national datasets, the peak over threshold (POT) series of rainfall depths with duration 30 min., 1, 3, 9 and 24 hrs. obtained for 700 Austrian raingauges and the Annual Maximum Series (AMS) of rainfall depths with duration spanning from 5 min. to 24 hrs. collected at 220 raingauges located in northern-central Italy. The estimation of the recurrence interval of DDEC requires the quantification of the equivalent number of independent data which, in turn, is a function of the cross-correlation among sequences. While the quantification and modelling of intersite dependence is a straightforward task for AMS series, it may be cumbersome for POT series. This paper proposes a possible approach to address this problem.

A Phase Space Box-counting based Method for Arrhythmia Prediction from Electrocardiogram Time Series

Arrhythmia is one kind of cardiovascular diseases that give rise to the number of deaths and potentially yields immedicable danger. Arrhythmia is a life threatening condition originating from disorganized propagation of electrical signals in heart resulting in desynchronization among different chambers of the heart. Fundamentally, the synchronization process means that the phase relationship of electrical activities between the chambers remains coherent, maintaining a constant phase difference over time. If desynchronization occurs due to arrhythmia, the coherent phase relationship breaks down resulting in chaotic rhythm affecting the regular pumping mechanism of heart. This phenomenon was explored by using the phase space reconstruction technique which is a standard analysis technique of time series data generated from nonlinear dynamical system. In this project a novel index is presented for predicting the onset of ventricular arrhythmias. Analysis of continuously captured long-term ECG data recordings was conducted up to the onset of arrhythmia by the phase space reconstruction method, obtaining 2-dimensional images, analysed by the box counting method. The method was tested using the ECG data set of three different kinds including normal (NR), Ventricular Tachycardia (VT), Ventricular Fibrillation (VF), extracted from the Physionet ECG database. Statistical measures like mean (μ), standard deviation (σ) and coefficient of variation (σ/μ) for the box-counting in phase space diagrams are derived for a sliding window of 10 beats of ECG signal. From the results of these statistical analyses, a threshold was derived as an upper bound of Coefficient of Variation (CV) for box-counting of ECG phase portraits which is capable of reliably predicting the impeding arrhythmia long before its actual occurrence. As future work of research, it was planned to validate this prediction tool over a wider population of patients affected by different kind of arrhythmia, like atrial fibrillation, bundle and brunch block, and set different thresholds for them, in order to confirm its clinical applicability.

Coded slotted aloha with multipacket reception over block fading channels (for satellite networks)

Random access (RA) protocols are normally used in a satellite networks for initial terminal access and are particularly effective since no coordination is required. On the other hand, contention resolution diversity slotted Aloha (CRDSA), irregular repetition slotted Aloha (IRSA) and coded slotted Aloha (CSA) has shown to be more efficient than classic RA schemes as slotted Aloha, and can be exploited also when short packets transmissions are done over a shared medium. In particular, they relies on burst repetition and on successive interference cancellation (SIC) applied at the receiver. The SIC process can be well described using a bipartite graph representation and exploiting tools used for analyze iterative decoding. The scope of my Master Thesis has been to described the performance of such RA protocols when the Rayleigh fading is taken into account. In this context, each user has the ability to correctly decode a packet also in presence of collision and when SIC is considered this may result in multi-packet reception. Analysis of the SIC procedure under Rayleigh fading has been analytically derived for the asymptotic case (infinite frame length), helping the analysis of both throughput and packet loss rates. An upper bound of the achievable performance has been analytically obtained. It can be show that in particular channel conditions the throughput of the system can be greater than one packets per slot which is the theoretical limit of the Collision Channel case.

Sviluppo di Metodi di Soft Labeling per la Multi-Document Summarization in Ambito Legale

In questo elaborato viene trattata l’analisi del problema di soft labeling applicato alla multi-document summarization, in particolare vengono testate varie tecniche per estrarre frasi rilevanti dai documenti presi in dettaglio, al fine di fornire al modello di summarization quelle di maggior rilievo e più informative per il riassunto da generare. Questo problema nasce per far fronte ai limiti che presentano i modelli di summarization attualmente a disposizione, che possono processare un numero limitato di frasi; sorge quindi la necessità di filtrare le informazioni più rilevanti quando il lavoro si applica a documenti lunghi. Al fine di scandire la metrica di importanza, vengono presi come riferimento metodi sintattici, semantici e basati su rappresentazione a grafi AMR. Il dataset preso come riferimento è Multi-LexSum, che include tre granularità di summarization di testi legali. L’analisi in questione si compone quindi della fase di estrazione delle frasi dai documenti, della misurazione delle metriche stabilite e del passaggio al modello stato dell’arte PRIMERA per l’elaborazione del riassunto. Il testo ottenuto viene poi confrontato con il riassunto target già fornito, considerato come ottimale; lavorando in queste condizioni l’obiettivo è di definire soglie ottimali di upper-bound per l’accuratezza delle metriche, che potrebbero ampliare il lavoro ad analisi più dettagliate qualora queste superino lo stato dell’arte attuale.

Temperature effects on larval growth and survival in five species of Caribbean Echinoids

Under the global change scenario, the possible effects of ocean warming were investigated on the larvae of five species of Caribbean Echinoids: Echinometra lucunter, Echinometra viridis, Clypeaster rosaceus, Tripneustes ventricosus and Lytechinus williamsi. Their thermal tolerance was evaluated rearing them for six days under different temperature regimes (26, 28, 30, 32, 34, 36°C). The larval sensitivity to the treatments was evaluated on the base of survival and growth. The rearing at higher temperatures has revealed a great suffering state of the larvae by inducing both reduction of live larvae and abnormality in their development. The extent of impact of the treatments varied from species to species, evidencing different levels of thermal tolerance. Anyway, higher temperature treatments have shown a general lethal threshold at about 34°C for most of the species. As an exception, the lethal threshold of Echinometra species was 36°C, few larvae of which being still capable of survive at the temperature of 34°C. The studies have also analyzed the effect of water warming on the larvae growth in terms of size and symmetry. The results put in evidence the presence of a critical upper temperature (about 32°C) at which the larvae of all species reveal a great suffering state that translates in the reduction of size (i.e., of body, stomach and postero-dorsal arm) and abnormalities (i.e., strong difference in the lengths of the two postero-dorsal arms). As sea surface temperatures are predicted to increase of 4-5°C by 2100, the high percentage of abnormal larvae and their scarce survival observed at 32- 34°C treatments indicate that the early stages of these species could be affected by future global warming.

Effects of acute temperature increase on performance and survival of Caribbean echinoids

Climate change is occurring at a faster rate than in the past, with an expected increase of mean sea surface temperatures up to 4.8°C by the end of this century. The actual capabilities of marine invertebrates to adapt to these rapid changes has still to be understood. Adult echinoids play a crucial role in the tropical ecosystems where they live. Despite their role, few studies about the effect of temperature increase on their viability have been reported in literature. This thesis work reports a first systematic study on several Caribbean echinoids about their tolerance to temperature rise in the context of global warming. The research - carried out at the Bocas del Toro Station of the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, in Panama - focalized on the 6 sea urchins Lytechinus variegatus, L. williamsi, Echinometra lucunter, E. viridis, Tripneustes ventricosus and Eucidaris tribuloides, and the 2 sand dollars Clypeaster rosaceus and C. subdepressus. Mortality and neuromuscular well-being indicators - such as righting response, covering behaviour, adhesion to the substrate, spine and tube feet movements - have been analysed in the temperature range 28-38°C. The righting time RT (i.e., the time necessary for the animal to right itself completely after inversion) measured in the 6 sea urchin species, demonstrated a clearly dependence on the water temperature. The experiments allowed to determine the “thermal safety margin” (TSM) of each species. Echinometra lucunter and E. viridis resulted the most tolerant species to high temperatures with a TSM of 5.5°C, while T. ventricosus was the most vulnerable with a TSM of only 3°C. The study assessed that all the species already live at temperatures close to their upper thermal limit. Their TSMs are comparable to the predicted temperature increase by 2100. In absence of acclimatization to such temperature change, these species could experience severe die-offs, with important consequences for tropical marine ecosystems.