7 resultados para risk-based modeling
em AMS Tesi di Laurea - Alm@DL - Università di Bologna
Resumo:
La stima della frequenza di accadimento di eventi incidentali di tipo random da linee e apparecchiature è in generale effettuata sulla base delle informazioni presenti in banche dati specializzate. I dati presenti in tali banche contengono informazioni relative ad eventi incidentali avvenuti in varie tipologie di installazioni, che spaziano dagli impianti chimici a quelli petrolchimici. Alcune di queste banche dati risultano anche piuttosto datate, poiché fanno riferimento ad incidenti verificatisi ormai molto addietro negli anni. Ne segue che i valori relativi alle frequenze di perdita forniti dalle banche dati risultano molto conservativi. Per ovviare a tale limite e tenere in conto il progresso tecnico, la linea guida API Recommended Pratice 581, pubblicata nel 2000 e successivamente aggiornata nel 2008, ha introdotto un criterio per determinare frequenze di perdita specializzate alla realtà propria impiantistica, mediante l’ausilio di coefficienti correttivi che considerano il meccanismo di guasto del componente, il sistema di gestione della sicurezza e l’efficacia dell’attività ispettiva. Il presente lavoro di tesi ha lo scopo di mettere in evidenza l’evoluzione dell’approccio di valutazione delle frequenze di perdita da tubazione. Esso è articolato come descritto nel seguito. Il Capitolo 1 ha carattere introduttivo. Nel Capitolo 2 è affrontato lo studio delle frequenze di perdita reperibili nelle banche dati generaliste. Nel Capitolo 3 sono illustrati due approcci, uno qualitativo ed uno quantitativo, che permettono di determinare le linee che presentano priorità più alta per essere sottoposte all’attività ispettiva. Il Capitolo 4 è dedicato alla descrizione della guida API Recomended Practice 581. L’applicazione ad un caso di studio dei criteri di selezione delle linee illustrati nel Capitolo 3 e la definizione delle caratteristiche dell’attività ispettiva secondo la linea guida API Recomended Practice 581 sono illustrati nel Capitolo 5. Infine nel Capitolo 6 sono rese esplicite le considerazioni conclusive dello studio effettuato.
Resumo:
Osteoporosis is one of the major causes of mortality among the elderly. Nowadays, areal bone mineral density (aBMD) is used as diagnostic criteria for osteoporosis; however, this is a moderate predictor of the femur fracture risk and does not capture the effect of some anatomical and physiological properties on the bone strength estimation. Data from past research suggest that most fragility femur fractures occur in patients with aBMD values outside the pathological range. Subject-specific finite element models derived from computed tomography data are considered better tools to non-invasively assess hip fracture risk. In particular, the Bologna Biomechanical Computed Tomography (BBCT) is an In Silico methodology that uses a subject specific FE model to predict bone strength. Different studies demonstrated that the modeling pipeline can increase predictive accuracy of osteoporosis detection and assess the efficacy of new antiresorptive drugs. However, one critical aspect that must be properly addressed before using the technology in the clinical practice, is the assessment of the model credibility. The aim of this study was to define and perform verification and uncertainty quantification analyses on the BBCT methodology following the risk-based credibility assessment framework recently proposed in the VV-40 standard. The analyses focused on the main verification tests used in computational solid mechanics: force and moment equilibrium check, mesh convergence analyses, mesh quality metrics study, evaluation of the uncertainties associated to the definition of the boundary conditions and material properties mapping. Results of these analyses showed that the FE model is correctly implemented and solved. The operation that mostly affect the model results is the material properties mapping step. This work represents an important step that, together with the ongoing clinical validation activities, will contribute to demonstrate the credibility of the BBCT methodology.
Resumo:
Introduction 1.1 Occurrence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) in the environment Worldwide industrial and agricultural developments have released a large number of natural and synthetic hazardous compounds into the environment due to careless waste disposal, illegal waste dumping and accidental spills. As a result, there are numerous sites in the world that require cleanup of soils and groundwater. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are one of the major groups of these contaminants (Da Silva et al., 2003). PAHs constitute a diverse class of organic compounds consisting of two or more aromatic rings with various structural configurations (Prabhu and Phale, 2003). Being a derivative of benzene, PAHs are thermodynamically stable. In addition, these chemicals tend to adhere to particle surfaces, such as soils, because of their low water solubility and strong hydrophobicity, and this results in greater persistence under natural conditions. This persistence coupled with their potential carcinogenicity makes PAHs problematic environmental contaminants (Cerniglia, 1992; Sutherland, 1992). PAHs are widely found in high concentrations at many industrial sites, particularly those associated with petroleum, gas production and wood preserving industries (Wilson and Jones, 1993). 1.2 Remediation technologies Conventional techniques used for the remediation of soil polluted with organic contaminants include excavation of the contaminated soil and disposal to a landfill or capping - containment - of the contaminated areas of a site. These methods have some drawbacks. The first method simply moves the contamination elsewhere and may create significant risks in the excavation, handling and transport of hazardous material. Additionally, it is very difficult and increasingly expensive to find new landfill sites for the final disposal of the material. The cap and containment method is only an interim solution since the contamination remains on site, requiring monitoring and maintenance of the isolation barriers long into the future, with all the associated costs and potential liability. A better approach than these traditional methods is to completely destroy the pollutants, if possible, or transform them into harmless substances. Some technologies that have been used are high-temperature incineration and various types of chemical decomposition (for example, base-catalyzed dechlorination, UV oxidation). However, these methods have significant disadvantages, principally their technological complexity, high cost , and the lack of public acceptance. Bioremediation, on the contrast, is a promising option for the complete removal and destruction of contaminants. 1.3 Bioremediation of PAH contaminated soil & groundwater Bioremediation is the use of living organisms, primarily microorganisms, to degrade or detoxify hazardous wastes into harmless substances such as carbon dioxide, water and cell biomass Most PAHs are biodegradable unter natural conditions (Da Silva et al., 2003; Meysami and Baheri, 2003) and bioremediation for cleanup of PAH wastes has been extensively studied at both laboratory and commercial levels- It has been implemented at a number of contaminated sites, including the cleanup of the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Prince William Sound, Alaska in 1989, the Mega Borg spill off the Texas coast in 1990 and the Burgan Oil Field, Kuwait in 1994 (Purwaningsih, 2002). Different strategies for PAH bioremediation, such as in situ , ex situ or on site bioremediation were developed in recent years. In situ bioremediation is a technique that is applied to soil and groundwater at the site without removing the contaminated soil or groundwater, based on the provision of optimum conditions for microbiological contaminant breakdown.. Ex situ bioremediation of PAHs, on the other hand, is a technique applied to soil and groundwater which has been removed from the site via excavation (soil) or pumping (water). Hazardous contaminants are converted in controlled bioreactors into harmless compounds in an efficient manner. 1.4 Bioavailability of PAH in the subsurface Frequently, PAH contamination in the environment is occurs as contaminants that are sorbed onto soilparticles rather than in phase (NAPL, non aqueous phase liquids). It is known that the biodegradation rate of most PAHs sorbed onto soil is far lower than rates measured in solution cultures of microorganisms with pure solid pollutants (Alexander and Scow, 1989; Hamaker, 1972). It is generally believed that only that fraction of PAHs dissolved in the solution can be metabolized by microorganisms in soil. The amount of contaminant that can be readily taken up and degraded by microorganisms is defined as bioavailability (Bosma et al., 1997; Maier, 2000). Two phenomena have been suggested to cause the low bioavailability of PAHs in soil (Danielsson, 2000). The first one is strong adsorption of the contaminants to the soil constituents which then leads to very slow release rates of contaminants to the aqueous phase. Sorption is often well correlated with soil organic matter content (Means, 1980) and significantly reduces biodegradation (Manilal and Alexander, 1991). The second phenomenon is slow mass transfer of pollutants, such as pore diffusion in the soil aggregates or diffusion in the organic matter in the soil. The complex set of these physical, chemical and biological processes is schematically illustrated in Figure 1. As shown in Figure 1, biodegradation processes are taking place in the soil solution while diffusion processes occur in the narrow pores in and between soil aggregates (Danielsson, 2000). Seemingly contradictory studies can be found in the literature that indicate the rate and final extent of metabolism may be either lower or higher for sorbed PAHs by soil than those for pure PAHs (Van Loosdrecht et al., 1990). These contrasting results demonstrate that the bioavailability of organic contaminants sorbed onto soil is far from being well understood. Besides bioavailability, there are several other factors influencing the rate and extent of biodegradation of PAHs in soil including microbial population characteristics, physical and chemical properties of PAHs and environmental factors (temperature, moisture, pH, degree of contamination). Figure 1: Schematic diagram showing possible rate-limiting processes during bioremediation of hydrophobic organic contaminants in a contaminated soil-water system (not to scale) (Danielsson, 2000). 1.5 Increasing the bioavailability of PAH in soil Attempts to improve the biodegradation of PAHs in soil by increasing their bioavailability include the use of surfactants , solvents or solubility enhancers.. However, introduction of synthetic surfactant may result in the addition of one more pollutant. (Wang and Brusseau, 1993).A study conducted by Mulder et al. showed that the introduction of hydropropyl-ß-cyclodextrin (HPCD), a well-known PAH solubility enhancer, significantly increased the solubilization of PAHs although it did not improve the biodegradation rate of PAHs (Mulder et al., 1998), indicating that further research is required in order to develop a feasible and efficient remediation method. Enhancing the extent of PAHs mass transfer from the soil phase to the liquid might prove an efficient and environmentally low-risk alternative way of addressing the problem of slow PAH biodegradation in soil.
Resumo:
L’obiettivo del presente lavoro di tesi è stato quello di effettuare, tramite l’applicazione di una metodologia RBM – Risk Based Maintenance, l’analisi dei guasti avvenuti nel biennio 2012-2013 nel termovalorizzatore di rifiuti solidi urbani di Modena gestito dalla società Herambiente.
Resumo:
One of the biggest challenges that contaminant hydrogeology is facing, is how to adequately address the uncertainty associated with model predictions. Uncertainty arise from multiple sources, such as: interpretative error, calibration accuracy, parameter sensitivity and variability. This critical issue needs to be properly addressed in order to support environmental decision-making processes. In this study, we perform Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) on a contaminant transport model for the assessment of hydrocarbon concentration in groundwater. We provide a quantification of the environmental impact and, given the incomplete knowledge of hydrogeological parameters, we evaluate which are the most influential, requiring greater accuracy in the calibration process. Parameters are treated as random variables and a variance-based GSA is performed in a optimized numerical Monte Carlo framework. The Sobol indices are adopted as sensitivity measures and they are computed by employing meta-models to characterize the migration process, while reducing the computational cost of the analysis. The proposed methodology allows us to: extend the number of Monte Carlo iterations, identify the influence of uncertain parameters and lead to considerable saving computational time obtaining an acceptable accuracy.
Resumo:
Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) is an emerging area of research associated to improvement of maintainability and the safety of aerospace, civil and mechanical infrastructures by means of monitoring and damage detection. Guided wave structural testing method is an approach for health monitoring of plate-like structures using smart material piezoelectric transducers. Among many kinds of transducers, the ones that have beam steering feature can perform more accurate surface interrogation. A frequency steerable acoustic transducer (FSATs) is capable of beam steering by varying the input frequency and consequently can detect and localize damage in structures. Guided wave inspection is typically performed through phased arrays which feature a large number of piezoelectric transducers, complexity and limitations. To overcome the weight penalty, the complex circuity and maintenance concern associated with wiring a large number of transducers, new FSATs are proposed that present inherent directional capabilities when generating and sensing elastic waves. The first generation of Spiral FSAT has two main limitations. First, waves are excited or sensed in one direction and in the opposite one (180 ̊ ambiguity) and second, just a relatively rude approximation of the desired directivity has been attained. Second generation of Spiral FSAT is proposed to overcome the first generation limitations. The importance of simulation tools becomes higher when a new idea is proposed and starts to be developed. The shaped transducer concept, especially the second generation of spiral FSAT is a novel idea in guided waves based of Structural Health Monitoring systems, hence finding a simulation tool is a necessity to develop various design aspects of this innovative transducer. In this work, the numerical simulation of the 1st and 2nd generations of Spiral FSAT has been conducted to prove the directional capability of excited guided waves through a plate-like structure.
Resumo:
Vaults are an architectural element which during construction history have been built with a great variety of different materials, shapes, and sizes. The shape of these structural elements was often dependent by the necessity to cover complex spaces, by the needed loading capacity, or by architectural aesthetics. Within this complex scenario masonry patterns generates also different effects on loading capacity, load percolation and stiffness of the structure. These effects were been extensively investigated, both with empirical observations and with modern numerical methods. While most of them focus on analyzing the load bearing capacity or the texture effect on vaulted structures, the aim of this analysis is to investigate on the effects of the variation of a single structural characteristic on the load percolation in the vault. Moreover, an additional purpose of the work is related to the coding of a parametrical model aiming at generating different masonry vaulted structures. Nevertheless, proposed script can generate different typology of vaulted structure basing on some structural characteristics, such as the span and the length to cover and the dimensions of the blocks.