Characterization of ENSO changes under idealised radiative forcing in an intermediate complexity general circulation model

Intermediate-complexity general circulation models are a fundamental tool to investigate the role of internal and external variability within the general circulation of the atmosphere and ocean. The model used in this thesis is an intermediate complexity atmospheric general circulation model (SPEEDY) coupled to a state-of-the-art modelling framework for the ocean (NEMO). We assess to which extent the model allows a realistic simulation of the most prominent natural mode of variability at interannual time scales: El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To a good approximation, the model represents the ENSO-induced Sea Surface Temperature (SST) pattern in the equatorial Pacific, despite a cold tongue-like bias. The model underestimates (overestimates) the typical ENSO spatial variability during the winter (summer) seasons. The mid-latitude response to ENSO reveals that the typical poleward stationary Rossby wave train is reasonably well represented. The spectral decomposition of ENSO features a spectrum that lacks periodicity at high frequencies and is overly periodic at interannual timescales. We then implemented an idealised transient mean state change in the SPEEDY model. A warmer climate is simulated by an alteration of the parametrized radiative fluxes that corresponds to doubled carbon dioxide absorptivity. Results indicate that the globally averaged surface air temperature increases of 0.76 K. Regionally, the induced signal on the SST field features a significant warming over the central-western Pacific and an El-Niño-like warming in the subtropics. In general, the model features a weakening of the tropical Walker circulation and a poleward expansion of the local Hadley cell. This response is also detected in a poleward rearrangement of the tropical convective rainfall pattern. The model setting that has been here implemented provides a valid theoretical support for future studies on climate sensitivity and forced modes of variability under mean state changes.

Validation of an intermediate-complexity flood risk model for climate change adaptation

In questo lavoro di tesi viene presentato e validato un modello di rischio di alluvione a complessità intermedia per scenari climatici futuri. Questo modello appartiene a quella categoria di strumenti che mirano a soddisfare le esigenze identificate dal World Climate Research Program (WRCP) per affrontare gli effetti del cambiamento climatico. L'obiettivo perseguito è quello di sviluppare, seguendo un approccio ``bottom-up" al rischio climatico regionale, strumenti che possano aiutare i decisori a realizzare l'adattamento ai cambiamenti climatici. Il modello qui presentato è interamente basato su dati open-source forniti dai servizi Copernicus. Il contributo di questo lavoro di tesi riguarda lo sviluppo di un modello, formulato da (Ruggieri et al.), per stimare i danni di eventi alluvionali fluviali per specifici i livelli di riscaldamento globale (GWL). Il modello è stato testato su tre bacini idrografici di medie dimensioni in Emilia-Romagna, Panaro, Reno e Secchia. In questo lavoro, il modello viene sottoposto a test di sensibilità rispetto a un'ipotesi enunciata nella formulazione del modello, poi vengono effettuate analisi relative all'ensemble multi-modello utilizzato per le proiezioni. Il modello viene quindi validato, confrontando i danni stimati nel clima attuale per i tre fiumi con i danni osservati e confrontando le portate simulate con quelle osservate. Infine, vengono stimati i danni associati agli eventi alluvionali in tre scenari climatici futuri caratterizzati da GWL di 1.5° C, 2.0° C e 3.0°C.

Analysis of Lead-Acid batteries with a third-order dynamical model

Electrical energy storage is a really important issue nowadays. As electricity is not easy to be directly stored, it can be stored in other forms and converted back to electricity when needed. As a consequence, storage technologies for electricity can be classified by the form of storage, and in particular we focus on electrochemical energy storage systems, better known as electrochemical batteries. Largely the more widespread batteries are the Lead-Acid ones, in the two main types known as flooded and valve-regulated. Batteries need to be present in many important applications such as in renewable energy systems and in motor vehicles. Consequently, in order to simulate these complex electrical systems, reliable battery models are needed. Although there exist some models developed by experts of chemistry, they are too complex and not expressed in terms of electrical networks. Thus, they are not convenient for a practical use by electrical engineers, who need to interface these models with other electrical systems models, usually described by means of electrical circuits. There are many techniques available in literature by which a battery can be modeled. Starting from the Thevenin based electrical model, it can be adapted to be more reliable for Lead-Acid battery type, with the addition of a parasitic reaction branch and a parallel network. The third-order formulation of this model can be chosen, being a trustworthy general-purpose model, characterized by a good ratio between accuracy and complexity. Considering the equivalent circuit network, all the useful equations describing the battery model are discussed, and then implemented one by one in Matlab/Simulink. The model has been finally validated, and then used to simulate the battery behaviour in different typical conditions.

Virtual Calibration of CO2 and Pollutant Emissions of a High-Performance PHEV using Model-in-the-Loop Methodology

The study analyses the calibration process of a newly developed high-performance plug-in hybrid electric passenger car powertrain. The complexity of modern powertrains and the more and more restrictive regulations regarding pollutant emissions are the primary challenges for the calibration of a vehicle’s powertrain. In addition, the managers of OEM need to know as earlier as possible if the vehicle under development will meet the target technical features (emission included). This leads to the necessity for advanced calibration methodologies, in order to keep the development of the powertrain robust, time and cost effective. The suggested solution is the virtual calibration, that allows the tuning of control functions of a powertrain before having it built. The aim of this study is to calibrate virtually the hybrid control unit functions in order to optimize the pollutant emissions and the fuel consumption. Starting from the model of the conventional vehicle, the powertrain is then hybridized and integrated with emissions and aftertreatments models. After its validation, the hybrid control unit strategies are optimized using the Model-in-the-Loop testing methodology. The calibration activities will proceed thanks to the implementation of a Hardware-in-the-Loop environment, that will allow to test and calibrate the Engine and Transmission control units effectively, besides in a time and cost saving manner.