Laboratory verification of predicted permanent deformation in asphalt materials following climate change.

In the past a change in temperature of 5°C most often occurred over intervals of thousands of years. According to estimates by the IPCC, in the XXI century is expected an increase in average temperatures in Europe between 1.8 and 4.0°C in the best case caused by emissions of carbon dioxide and other GHG from human activities. As well as on the environment and economic context, global warming will have effects even on road safety. Several studies have already shown how increasing temperature may cause a worsening of some types of road surface damages, especially rutting, a permanent deformation of the road structures consisting in the formation of a longitudinal depression in the wheelpath, mostly due to the rheological behavior of bitumen. This deformation evolves during the hot season because of the heating capacity of the asphalt layers, in fact, the road surface temperature is up to 24°C higher than air. In this thesis, through the use of Wheeltrack test, it was studied the behavior of some types of asphalt concrete mixtures subjected to fatigue testing at different temperatures. The objectives of this study are: to determine the strain variation of different bituminous mixture subjected to fatigue testing at different temperature conditions; to investigate the effect of aggregates, bitumen and mixtures’ characteristics on rutting. Samples were made in the laboratory mostly using an already prepared mixtures, the others preparing the asphalt concrete from the grading curve and bitumen content. The same procedure was performed for each specimen: preparation, compaction using the roller compactor, cooling and heating before the test. The tests were carried out at 40 - 50 - 60°C in order to obtain the evolution of deformation with temperature variation, except some mixtures for which the tests were carried out only at 50°C. In the elaboration of the results were considered testing parameters, component properties and the characteristics of the mixture. Among the testing parameters, temperature was varied for each sample. The mixtures responded to this variation with a different behavior (linear logarithmic and exponential) not directly correlated with the asphalt characteristics; the others parameters as load, passage frequency and test condition were kept constant. According to the results obtained, the main contribution to deformation is due to the type of binder used, it was found that the modified bitumen have a better response than the same mixtures containing traditional bitumen; to the porosity which affects negatively the behavior of the samples and to the homogeneity ceteris paribus. The granulometric composition did not seem to have interfered with the results. Overall has emerged at working temperature, a decisive importance of bitumen composition, than the other characteristics of the mixture, that tends to disappear with heating in favor of increased dependence of rutting resistance from the granulometric composition of the sample considered. In particular it is essential, rather than the mechanical characteristics of the binder, its chemical properties given by the polymeric modification. To confirm some considered results, the maximum bulk density and the air voids content were determined. Tests have been conducted in the laboratories of the Civil Engineering Department at NTNU in Trondheim according to European Standards.

Structural verification of the ESEO spacecraft: from launch loads analysis to composite panels verification

The present thesis work was performed in the frame of ESEO (European Student Earth Orbiter) project. The activities that are described in this document were carried out in the Microsatellites and Space Micro systems Lab led by Professor Paolo Tortora and in ALMASpace company facilities. The thesis deals with ESEO structural analysis, at system and unit level, and verification: after determining the design limit loads to be applied to the spacecraft as an envelope of different launchers load profiles, a finite element structural analysis was performed on the model of the satellite in order to ensure the capability to withstand the loads encountered during the launch; all the analyses were performed according to ESA standards and using the software MSC NASTRAN SIMXPERT. Amplification factors were derived and used to determine loads to be considered at unit level. In particular structural analyses were carried out on the GPS unit, the payload developed for ESEO by students of University of Bologna and results were used in the preparation of GPS payload design definition file. As for the verification phase a study on the panels and inserts to be used in the spacecraft was performed: different designs were created exploiting methods to optimize weight and mechanical behavior. The configurations have been analyzed and results compared to select the final design.

Deterministic and probabilistic verification of multi-model meteorological forecasts on the subseasonal timescale

In questo studio, un multi-model ensemble è stato implementato e verificato, seguendo una delle priorità di ricerca del Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project (S2S). Una regressione lineare è stata applicata ad un insieme di previsioni di ensemble su date passate, prodotte dai centri di previsione mensile del CNR-ISAC e ECMWF-IFS. Ognuna di queste contiene un membro di controllo e quattro elementi perturbati. Le variabili scelte per l'analisi sono l'altezza geopotenziale a 500 hPa, la temperatura a 850 hPa e la temperatura a 2 metri, la griglia spaziale ha risoluzione 1 ◦ × 1 ◦ lat-lon e sono stati utilizzati gli inverni dal 1990 al 2010. Le rianalisi di ERA-Interim sono utilizzate sia per realizzare la regressione, sia nella validazione dei risultati, mediante stimatori nonprobabilistici come lo scarto quadratico medio (RMSE) e la correlazione delle anomalie. Successivamente, tecniche di Model Output Statistics (MOS) e Direct Model Output (DMO) sono applicate al multi-model ensemble per ottenere previsioni probabilistiche per la media settimanale delle anomalie di temperatura a 2 metri. I metodi MOS utilizzati sono la regressione logistica e la regressione Gaussiana non-omogenea, mentre quelli DMO sono il democratic voting e il Tukey plotting position. Queste tecniche sono applicate anche ai singoli modelli in modo da effettuare confronti basati su stimatori probabilistici, come il ranked probability skill score, il discrete ranked probability skill score e il reliability diagram. Entrambe le tipologie di stimatori mostrano come il multi-model abbia migliori performance rispetto ai singoli modelli. Inoltre, i valori più alti di stimatori probabilistici sono ottenuti usando una regressione logistica sulla sola media di ensemble. Applicando la regressione a dataset di dimensione ridotta, abbiamo realizzato una curva di apprendimento che mostra come un aumento del numero di date nella fase di addestramento non produrrebbe ulteriori miglioramenti.

Modelling and Verification of a Correction Factor to Evaluate the Efficiency of Solar Thermal Collectors with the Rapid Test Method

A new method for the evaluation of the efficiency of parabolic trough collectors, called Rapid Test Method, is investigated at the Solar Institut Jülich. The basic concept is to carry out measurements under stagnation conditions. This allows a fast and inexpensive process due to the fact that no working fluid is required. With this approach, the temperature reached by the inner wall of the receiver is assumed to be the stagnation temperature and hence the average temperature inside the collector. This leads to a systematic error which can be rectified through the introduction of a correction factor. A model of the collector is simulated with COMSOL Multipyisics to study the size of the correction factor depending on collector geometry and working conditions. The resulting values are compared with experimental data obtained at a test rig at the Solar Institut Jülich. These results do not match with the simulated ones. Consequentially, it was not pos-sible to verify the model. The reliability of both the model with COMSOL Multiphysics and of the measurements are analysed. The influence of the correction factor on the rapid test method is also studied, as well as the possibility of neglecting it by measuring the receiver’s inner wall temperature where it receives the least amount of solar rays. The last two chapters analyse the specific heat capacity as a function of pressure and tem-perature and present some considerations about the uncertainties on the efficiency curve obtained with the Rapid Test Method.

From the traditional verification approach to the spatial methods: a study of applicability of the SAL metric in the framework of the WMO project MesoVICT

Increasing in resolution of numerical weather prediction models has allowed more and more realistic forecasts of atmospheric parameters. Due to the growing variability into predicted fields the traditional verification methods are not always able to describe the model ability because they are based on a grid-point-by-grid-point matching between observation and prediction. Recently, new spatial verification methods have been developed with the aim of show the benefit associated to the high resolution forecast. Nested in among of the MesoVICT international project, the initially aim of this work is to compare the newly tecniques remarking advantages and disadvantages. First of all, the MesoVICT basic examples, represented by synthetic precipitation fields, have been examined. Giving an error evaluation in terms of structure, amplitude and localization of the precipitation fields, the SAL method has been studied more thoroughly respect to the others approaches with its implementation in the core cases of the project. The verification procedure has concerned precipitation fields over central Europe: comparisons between the forecasts performed by the 00z COSMO-2 model and the VERA (Vienna Enhanced Resolution Analysis) have been done. The study of these cases has shown some weaknesses of the methodology examined; in particular has been highlighted the presence of a correlation between the optimal domain size and the extention of the precipitation systems. In order to increase ability of SAL, a subdivision of the original domain in three subdomains has been done and the method has been applied again. Some limits have been found in cases in which at least one of the two domains does not show precipitation. The overall results for the subdomains have been summarized on scatter plots. With the aim to identify systematic errors of the model the variability of the three parameters has been studied for each subdomain.