Conditional entropy and predictability for non-reversible Markov systems

The purpose of this thesis is to clarify the role of non-equilibrium stationary currents of Markov processes in the context of the predictability of future states of the system. Once the connection between the predictability and the conditional entropy is established, we provide a comprehensive approach to the definition of a multi-particle Markov system. In particular, starting from the well-known theory of random walk on network, we derive the non-linear master equation for an interacting multi-particle system under the one-step process hypothesis, highlighting the limits of its tractability and the prop- erties of its stationary solution. Lastly, in order to study the impact of the NESS on the predictability at short times, we analyze the conditional entropy by modulating the intensity of the stationary currents, both for a single-particle and a multi-particle Markov system. The results obtained analytically are numerically tested on a 5-node cycle network and put in correspondence with the stationary entropy production. Furthermore, because of the low dimensionality of the single-particle system, an analysis of its spectral properties as a function of the modulated stationary currents is performed.

A maximum entropy approach to disturbed ecosystems

The current climate crisis requires a comprehensive understanding of biodiversity to acknowledge how ecosystems’ responses to anthropogenic disturbances may result in feedback that can either mitigate or exacerbate global warming. Although ecosystems are dynamic and macroecological patterns change drastically in response to disturbance, dynamic macroecology has received insufficient attention and theoretical formalisation. In this context, the maximum entropy principle (MaxEnt) could provide an effective inference procedure to study ecosystems. Since the improper usage of entropy outside its scope often leads to misconceptions, the opening chapter will clarify its meaning by following its evolution from classical thermodynamics to information theory. The second chapter introduces the study of ecosystems from a physicist’s viewpoint. In particular, the MaxEnt Theory of Ecology (METE) will be the cornerstone of the discussion. METE predicts the shapes of macroecological metrics in relatively static ecosystems using constraints imposed by static state variables. However, in disturbed ecosystems with macroscale state variables that change rapidly over time, its predictions tend to fail. In the final chapter, DynaMETE is therefore presented as an extension of METE from static to dynamic. By predicting how macroecological patterns are likely to change in response to perturbations, DynaMETE can contribute to a better understanding of disturbed ecosystems’ fate and the improvement of conservation and management of carbon sinks, like forests. Targeted strategies in ecosystem management are now indispensable to enhance the interdependence of human well-being and the health of ecosystems, thus avoiding climate change tipping points.